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Water Resources Challenges
in the Middle East
TU Berlin, Germany
27 June 2013
Ralf Klingbeil
Regional Advisor Environment ...
Lebanon - ‫لبنان‬
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 2
Lebanon - ‫لبنان‬
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 3
http://ilndation-elaof.blogspot.com/2009/11/how-to-make-bucket-margarita....
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 4
Opening Quotes
• “Arabs are already in the heart of the water
catastrophe.”
• “Any delay in...
Iraq – Displacement due to Drought
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 5
IOM, July 2010
Iraq – Water Needs 2008 - 2010
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 6
IOM, July 2010
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 7
Outline
• UN-ESCWA
UN Regional Commission
• Regional Water Overview:
The Many Dimensions of...
ECE
1947
ESCWA
1973
ESCAP
1947
ECA
1958
ECLAC
1948
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 8
UN ESCWA and the
Regional Dimension in t...
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 9
UN ESCWA
Sustainable Development and
Productivity Division
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 10
Implementation
Approach
Regional Conveni...
Water Resources Section
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 11
Implementation
Approach
Regional
Convening
Power for
Intergovernme...
Water - Challenges
• Status and Trends
• Availability vs. Use and Demand
• Renewable vs. Non-Renewable
• Population Growth...
MENA - Water - Challenges
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 13
Governance
Demographics
Food
Water
& Land
(Energy)
Regional Water Overview
Water Availability and Demand
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 14
Actual Renewable Freshwater Resources
per Capita. by Region
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 15
FAO AQUASTST, WB 2007
Percent of Total Renewable Water
Resources Withdrawn, by Region
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 16
FAO AQUASTAT data 1998-200...
Rainfall Distribution in the Arab Region
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 17
ESCWA, 2009
Total Renewable Water per Person
in ESCWA Region
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 18
ESCWA, 2009
Water Stress
Water Scarcity
E...
Total Actual Renewable Water
Resources per Capita in MENA
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 19
FAO AQUASTAT, WB 2007
Water Stre...
Arab Countries’ Water Availability and Use
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 20
www.carboun.com, 2011
High Rate of Population Growth
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 21
ICBA, Barghouti, 2009
High Rate of Population Growth
in ESCWA Region
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 22
ESCWA, 2009
Regional Water Overview
Solutions to a Dilemma?
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 23
Solutions?
Efficiency, Reuse, Storage, Protection
• Increase water efficiency and conservation
• Reuse of all forms of wat...
Solutions? – Efficiency
• Leakage detection for water supplies
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 25
Solutions? – Reuse
• Reuse: water and (treated) waste water
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 26
AlBaz, GIZ, 2011
Solutions? – Storage
• Storage: Managed Aquifer Storage
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 27
UNESCO, 2005
Jordan:
MAR - Infiltration of Floodwater
• 2012: Cooperation MWI/JOR – BGR/BMZ/GER
– Guideline for Assessment and
Implemen...
Oman:
Groundwater Recharge Dams
• > 30 groundwater recharge dams, intercepting
wadi runoff, allowing for controlled rechar...
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 30
Lebanon
Resources Management and Protection
www.escwa.un.org 311 July 2013
partly from Margane, BGR, 2013
Resources Management and Protection
www.escwa.un.org 321 July 2013
• Tectonic setting
• Geological mapping
• Tracer tests
...
Regional Water Overview
Water and Food, Virtual Water,
Food Imports
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 33
Water and Food
Morelli, 2012: www.angelamorelli.com/water
Food Security
• Food security vs. food self-sufficiency.
• Food security vs. internal agricultural production.
• Food secu...
Agricultural Water Use
e.g. Wadi Al-Sirhan, Saudi Arabia
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 36
1991
2000
2012
Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 37
FAO AQUASTAT, 2008
Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 38
Accumulated 30 year groundwater abstraction, 1975 - ...
Sustainability and
Non-Renewable Groundwater
• Immediate gains vs. long term benefits
• No clear “Exit Strategy”,
no repla...
Declining Shares of Agriculture in GDP
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 40
ICBA, Barghouti, 2009
Food Supply Chains:
Losses of Food – and Water
www.escwa.un.org 411 July 2013
Gustavsson et al., 2011
Production Volumes p...
Radioactivity-related Cancer Risk from
Groundwater in the Middle East?
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 42
Spiegel Online, 05 ...
Sources of Water and Use
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 43
ICBA, Barghouti, 2009
Alternative Future Water Policy Options
Basically 3 future policy options available:
• Population Policy change –
high pol...
Regional Water Overview
Transboundary Water and
Transboundary Aquifers
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 45
www.escwa.un.org 46
TB Water & Aquifers Worldwide
• MENA Region: Only few transboundary rivers,
BUT large volumes of trans...
www.escwa.un.org 47
What is a Transboundary Aquifer ?
1 July 2013
UNESCO / ISARM,
2001
www.escwa.un.org 48
TB Water & Aquifers in Middle East
1 July 2013
www.escwa.un.org 49
TB Water & Aquifers in Middle East
1 July 2013
Saq-Ram Aquifer
System (West)
www.escwa.un.org 50
TB Water & Aquifers in Middle East
Chapter Features - Groundwater
1 July 2013
Israel, Jordan and Palestine
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 51
Jordan River Basin
• 4 of 5 riparians
officially support the
1997 UN Watercourse
Convention
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 5...
Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 53
Klein, 1998
Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 54
Israel
Libanon
Golan
Jordan
Hasbani (125 Mio m³/a)
Dan ...
Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs
• Hasbani Spring, Hasbani River
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 55
Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs
• Ouazzani Spring, Hasbani River
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 56
Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 57
Klein,1998
km2
MCM/y mm/y
Dan 17.60 228 12,954.55
Hasba...
Lake Tiberias
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 58
Lake Tiberias discharge –
“Spring” of the Lower Jordan River
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 59
Zeitoun. 2010
The Mouth of the River Jordan -
at the Dead Sea
… in 2008:
1.20 m wide
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 60
Jordan River Basin
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 61
Moelle. 2000 ?
Jordan River Basin
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 62
Moelle. 2000 ?
Israel - Palestine: The Mountain Aquifers
• Geological Cross Section from West to East
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 63
FAO...
www.escwa.un.org 64
Groundwater Data: Israel – Palestine
Historical Use: Surface and Groundwater
Zeitoun, Messerschmid, At...
www.escwa.un.org 65
Groundwater Data: Israel – Palestine
Groundwater Development Costs
MacDonald et al., 2009
1 July 2013
Perspectives
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 66
Friends of the Earth Middle East
Climate Change and Water
in the Region
Understanding Impacts
Making Adaptation Work
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 67
Potential Impacts
• Coupled with excessive population growth and rising
living standards,
climate change will exacerbate w...
Potential Impacts
• Changes in water availability
– Increase system resilience through surface / underground storage and t...
Change in Length of Dry Season
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 70
Evans, J.P., 2009.
21st Century
Climate Change in the
Middl...
Changes in RCM projections of seasonal
precipitation (mm/season) across the region
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 71
Hemming...
Changes in RCM projections of seasonal
precipitation (mm/season) across the region
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 72
Hemming...
RICCAR - Regional Initiative
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 73
Water, water, everywhere …
but not always enough for
everybody and everything
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 74
Main Messages
• Water is everybody’s business.
• Goal of many countries:
National water strategy for water security,
enoug...
Main Messages
• Urgent need to change water, agriculture and population
policies with regard to water consumption and prot...
Hope? – A More Optimistic View
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 77
The Scorpion and the Frog
A scorpion is asking a frog to carry him
across a river. The frog is afraid of being
stung durin...
Water Resources Challenges
in the Middle East
TU Berlin, Germany
27 June 2013
Ralf Klingbeil
Regional Advisor Environment ...
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R. Klingbeil, 2013: Water Resources Challenges in the Middle East.

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Klingbeil, R., 2013. Water Resources Challenges in the Middle East. Presentation at the TU Berlin, Berlin, Germany, 27 Jun 2013.

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R. Klingbeil, 2013: Water Resources Challenges in the Middle East.

  1. 1. Water Resources Challenges in the Middle East TU Berlin, Germany 27 June 2013 Ralf Klingbeil Regional Advisor Environment & Water
  2. 2. Lebanon - ‫لبنان‬ 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 2
  3. 3. Lebanon - ‫لبنان‬ 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 3 http://ilndation-elaof.blogspot.com/2009/11/how-to-make-bucket-margarita.html 2, 2009
  4. 4. 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 4 Opening Quotes • “Arabs are already in the heart of the water catastrophe.” • “Any delay in a serious response to the water challenge corresponds to mass suicide. The water apocalypse is knocking on Arab doors, right now.” Najib Saab, SG AFED, 12 June 2010
  5. 5. Iraq – Displacement due to Drought 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 5 IOM, July 2010
  6. 6. Iraq – Water Needs 2008 - 2010 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 6 IOM, July 2010
  7. 7. 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 7 Outline • UN-ESCWA UN Regional Commission • Regional Water Overview: The Many Dimensions of Water – Water Availability and Demand – Solutions to a Dilemma? – Water and Food, Virtual Water, Food Imports – Transboundary Water and Transboundary Aquifers – Climate Change • What remains to be said. Hope?
  8. 8. ECE 1947 ESCWA 1973 ESCAP 1947 ECA 1958 ECLAC 1948 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 8 UN ESCWA and the Regional Dimension in the UN
  9. 9. 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 9 UN ESCWA
  10. 10. Sustainable Development and Productivity Division 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 10 Implementation Approach Regional Convening Power for Intergovernmental Mechanisms Informing Regional Processes for Global Negotiations and National Action Partnerships Productive Sectors Section Green Economy Food Security Sustainable Development Goals Energy Section Energy Efficiency Renewable Energy Energy Security Water Resources Section Shared Water Resources Climate Change Adaptation MDGs Integrated Water Resources Management Support to Intergovernmental Mechanisms ESCWA Committees (Water/Energy); LAS Councils: CAMRE (JCEDAR), AMWC, AMCE
  11. 11. Water Resources Section 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 11 Implementation Approach Regional Convening Power for Intergovernmen tal Mechanisms Informing Regional Processes for Global Negotiations and National Action Partnerships Shared Water Resources Legal Framework for Shared Waters in Arab Region Inventory of Shared Water Resources in Western Asia Shared Water Monitoring Pilot Project ESCWA-BGR Cooperation, LAS, AMWC Climate Change Adaptation RICCAR (Assessment) ACCWaM (Adaptation) UNDA Projects (2) (Capacity Building) RCM/TWG-CC, UN & LAS Orgs, Working Groups, SIDA, GIZ, AMWC, CAMRE, Met Offices MDGs MDG+ Initiative ACWUA (Board Member) SDGs / Post-2015 Agenda AMWC, ACWUA, WHO, CEDARE, RAED, AWC, Stats, UN-Water Integrated Water Resources Management Arab Strategies and Action Plans AWARENET Network Water-Energy- Food Nexus (RB/DA) Inter-Sectional Inter-Divisional Inter-Agency Program Mandated by ESCWA Committee on Water Resources & Arab Ministerial Water Council
  12. 12. Water - Challenges • Status and Trends • Availability vs. Use and Demand • Renewable vs. Non-Renewable • Population Growth and Agriculture • Pollution – Reduction of Available Resources • Virtual Water • Water Imports and Transfers • Desalination • Transboundary Water and Aquifers • ... and Climate Change 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 12
  13. 13. MENA - Water - Challenges 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 13 Governance Demographics Food Water & Land (Energy)
  14. 14. Regional Water Overview Water Availability and Demand 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 14
  15. 15. Actual Renewable Freshwater Resources per Capita. by Region 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 15 FAO AQUASTST, WB 2007
  16. 16. Percent of Total Renewable Water Resources Withdrawn, by Region 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 16 FAO AQUASTAT data 1998-2002, WB 2007
  17. 17. Rainfall Distribution in the Arab Region 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 17 ESCWA, 2009
  18. 18. Total Renewable Water per Person in ESCWA Region 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 18 ESCWA, 2009 Water Stress Water Scarcity Extreme Water Scarcity
  19. 19. Total Actual Renewable Water Resources per Capita in MENA 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 19 FAO AQUASTAT, WB 2007 Water Stress Water Scarcity Extreme Water Scarcity
  20. 20. Arab Countries’ Water Availability and Use 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 20 www.carboun.com, 2011
  21. 21. High Rate of Population Growth 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 21 ICBA, Barghouti, 2009
  22. 22. High Rate of Population Growth in ESCWA Region 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 22 ESCWA, 2009
  23. 23. Regional Water Overview Solutions to a Dilemma? 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 23
  24. 24. Solutions? Efficiency, Reuse, Storage, Protection • Increase water efficiency and conservation • Reuse of all forms of water and (treated) waste water • Increase smart storage options: Managed Aquifer Recharge • Resources Protection 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 24
  25. 25. Solutions? – Efficiency • Leakage detection for water supplies 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 25
  26. 26. Solutions? – Reuse • Reuse: water and (treated) waste water 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 26 AlBaz, GIZ, 2011
  27. 27. Solutions? – Storage • Storage: Managed Aquifer Storage 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 27 UNESCO, 2005
  28. 28. Jordan: MAR - Infiltration of Floodwater • 2012: Cooperation MWI/JOR – BGR/BMZ/GER – Guideline for Assessment and Implementation of Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) in (Semi-)Arid Regions – Pre-Feasibility Study for Infiltration of Floodwater in Amman-Zarqa and Azraq Basins • MAR potential map for water availability & site suitability for two surface water basins • Limitations: – Source water availability in regions with rainfall of less than 200 mm/a – High sediment load of runoff waters • Operation and maintenance • Monitoring • Assess actual effectiveness • Increase involvement of local communities Steinel, 2012 July 1, 2013 www.escwa.un.org 28
  29. 29. Oman: Groundwater Recharge Dams • > 30 groundwater recharge dams, intercepting wadi runoff, allowing for controlled recharge downstream of dam • Managed to hold about 1064 MCM of flood waters until end of 2009 • Substantial experiences in siting and dimensioning of groundwater recharge dams July 1, 2013 www.escwa.un.org 29
  30. 30. 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 30 Lebanon
  31. 31. Resources Management and Protection www.escwa.un.org 311 July 2013 partly from Margane, BGR, 2013
  32. 32. Resources Management and Protection www.escwa.un.org 321 July 2013 • Tectonic setting • Geological mapping • Tracer tests • Stable isotopes Margane, BGR, 2013
  33. 33. Regional Water Overview Water and Food, Virtual Water, Food Imports 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 33
  34. 34. Water and Food Morelli, 2012: www.angelamorelli.com/water
  35. 35. Food Security • Food security vs. food self-sufficiency. • Food security vs. internal agricultural production. • Food security and non-renewable groundwater resources. • A recent World Bank study on water economics in the Middle East and North Africa estimates that groundwater resources depletion has substantially reduced GDP in some countries, by 2.1% in Jordan, 1.5% in Yemen, 1.3% in Egypt, and 1.2% in Tunis. • Food security and virtual water - implications for: • Trade • Rural development, including women & youth • Foreign revenue reserves • Sustainability Water and Food
  36. 36. Agricultural Water Use e.g. Wadi Al-Sirhan, Saudi Arabia 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 36 1991 2000 2012
  37. 37. Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 37 FAO AQUASTAT, 2008
  38. 38. Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 38 Accumulated 30 year groundwater abstraction, 1975 - 2004 per Region for KSA (WaterWatch, 2006)
  39. 39. Sustainability and Non-Renewable Groundwater • Immediate gains vs. long term benefits • No clear “Exit Strategy”, no replacement for non-renewable water resource 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 39 after Al Zubari, 2010 we are here, but where are we going next?
  40. 40. Declining Shares of Agriculture in GDP 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 40 ICBA, Barghouti, 2009
  41. 41. Food Supply Chains: Losses of Food – and Water www.escwa.un.org 411 July 2013 Gustavsson et al., 2011 Production Volumes per Commodity Group (million tonnes)
  42. 42. Radioactivity-related Cancer Risk from Groundwater in the Middle East? 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 42 Spiegel Online, 05 Nov 2012: www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/radioaktive-strahlung-im-grundwasserin-nahost-und-nordafrika-a-854588.html Schubert et al., 2011: www.psipw.org/attachments/article/300/IJWRAE_1(1)25-32.pdf
  43. 43. Sources of Water and Use 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 43 ICBA, Barghouti, 2009
  44. 44. Alternative Future Water Policy Options Basically 3 future policy options available: • Population Policy change – high political risk, long term impact, adopted economic development model • Agricultural Policy change – medium political risk, medium term impact • Water Policy change – lower political risk, short term impact • Combination of two or three of the above 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 44
  45. 45. Regional Water Overview Transboundary Water and Transboundary Aquifers 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 45
  46. 46. www.escwa.un.org 46 TB Water & Aquifers Worldwide • MENA Region: Only few transboundary rivers, BUT large volumes of transboundary groundwater • Concepts for Transboundary River Basins do not necessarily fit to the needs in MENA 1 July 2013
  47. 47. www.escwa.un.org 47 What is a Transboundary Aquifer ? 1 July 2013 UNESCO / ISARM, 2001
  48. 48. www.escwa.un.org 48 TB Water & Aquifers in Middle East 1 July 2013
  49. 49. www.escwa.un.org 49 TB Water & Aquifers in Middle East 1 July 2013 Saq-Ram Aquifer System (West)
  50. 50. www.escwa.un.org 50 TB Water & Aquifers in Middle East Chapter Features - Groundwater 1 July 2013
  51. 51. Israel, Jordan and Palestine 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 51
  52. 52. Jordan River Basin • 4 of 5 riparians officially support the 1997 UN Watercourse Convention 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 52 JORDAN RIVER BASIN JORDAN PALESTINE SYRIA LEBANON Y Y Y Y N Zeitoun 2010
  53. 53. Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 53 Klein, 1998
  54. 54. Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 54 Israel Libanon Golan Jordan Hasbani (125 Mio m³/a) Dan (250 Mio m³/a) Banias (125 Mio m³/a) Israel Libanon Golan Jordan Hasbani (125 Mio m³/a) Dan (250 Mio m³/a) Banias (125 Mio m³/a)
  55. 55. Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs • Hasbani Spring, Hasbani River 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 55
  56. 56. Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs • Ouazzani Spring, Hasbani River 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 56
  57. 57. Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 57 Klein,1998 km2 MCM/y mm/y Dan 17.60 228 12,954.55 Hasbani 698.00 122 174.79 Banias 189.00 113 597.88 Dan Hasbani Banias 189.00 113 597.88 Dan Hasbani Banias 511.83 489.10 904.60 463 715.60 350
  58. 58. Lake Tiberias 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 58
  59. 59. Lake Tiberias discharge – “Spring” of the Lower Jordan River 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 59 Zeitoun. 2010
  60. 60. The Mouth of the River Jordan - at the Dead Sea … in 2008: 1.20 m wide 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 60
  61. 61. Jordan River Basin 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 61 Moelle. 2000 ?
  62. 62. Jordan River Basin 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 62 Moelle. 2000 ?
  63. 63. Israel - Palestine: The Mountain Aquifers • Geological Cross Section from West to East 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 63 FAO. 2009
  64. 64. www.escwa.un.org 64 Groundwater Data: Israel – Palestine Historical Use: Surface and Groundwater Zeitoun, Messerschmid, Attili, 2009 1 July 2013
  65. 65. www.escwa.un.org 65 Groundwater Data: Israel – Palestine Groundwater Development Costs MacDonald et al., 2009 1 July 2013
  66. 66. Perspectives 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 66 Friends of the Earth Middle East
  67. 67. Climate Change and Water in the Region Understanding Impacts Making Adaptation Work 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 67
  68. 68. Potential Impacts • Coupled with excessive population growth and rising living standards, climate change will exacerbate water scarcity conditions across the Arab world. • Persistent reduction of total annual precipitation coupled with rising temperatures will reduce water availability. • Higher temperatures will influence water quality and may cause additional sanitation problems 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 68
  69. 69. Potential Impacts • Changes in water availability – Increase system resilience through surface / underground storage and transfer capacity – Shift form surface to underground storage where applicable to reduce evaporation losses • Urban drainage networks - new dimensions – Sewage systems, storm runoff • Desalination - higher temperature in feed water may increase algae growth and risk of closure of plant intake – Improve intake procedures – Increase storage and transfer capacity • Infrastructure failures – Higher flooding intensities, frequencies – Higher temperatures, • Changes in hydraulic patterns and temperatures – Loss of snowpack storage in Lebanon, Oman, etc. • Groundwater recharge changes, impacts on spring and river discharges – Increase managed aquifer recharge schemes – Better monitoring and scientific understanding of recharge mechanism for predictive planning of alternatives, before springs cease • Seawater level rise – Increasing groundwater salinisation 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 69
  70. 70. Change in Length of Dry Season 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 70 Evans, J.P., 2009. 21st Century Climate Change in the Middle East.
  71. 71. Changes in RCM projections of seasonal precipitation (mm/season) across the region 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 71 Hemming, D. et al., 2007. Environmental Stresses from Detailed Climate Model Simulations for the Middle East and Gulf Regions. Defense and Security Implications of Climate Change – Gulf Region Mar to May 2070 Sep to Nov 2070
  72. 72. Changes in RCM projections of seasonal precipitation (mm/season) across the region 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 72 Hemming, D. et al., 2007. Environmental Stresses from Detailed Climate Model Simulations for the Middle East and Gulf Regions. Defense and Security Implications of Climate Change – Gulf Region
  73. 73. RICCAR - Regional Initiative 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 73
  74. 74. Water, water, everywhere … but not always enough for everybody and everything 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 74
  75. 75. Main Messages • Water is everybody’s business. • Goal of many countries: National water strategy for water security, enough water for all demands. • Countries in the region are largely unable to sustain their water needs only from within their national boundaries. • All countries are already net water importers through food imports – virtual water. • Largest water consumer is agriculture, although rarely economically viable nor socially necessary. 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 75
  76. 76. Main Messages • Urgent need to change water, agriculture and population policies with regard to water consumption and protection. • Surface and groundwater is often transboundary, i.e. (needs to be) shared between neighbouring countries. • Effective und sustainable management of transboundary water needs willingness to cooperate for a more equitable sharing of the benefits from the common resource. • Without cooperation, without innovative integration of economic tools, social justice and environmental sustainable approaches, without regional and bilateral agreements on water, the region may actually slowly move towards a mass suicide. 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 76
  77. 77. Hope? – A More Optimistic View 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 77
  78. 78. The Scorpion and the Frog A scorpion is asking a frog to carry him across a river. The frog is afraid of being stung during the trip, but the scorpion argues that if it stung the frog, the frog would sink and the scorpion would drown. The frog agrees and begins carrying the scorpion, but midway across the river the scorpion does indeed sting the frog, dooming them both. When asked why, the scorpion points out that this is its nature. Hope? – A Less Optimistic View 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 78 http://www.flickr.com/photos/medmss/5887746629 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Scorpion_and_the_Frog
  79. 79. Water Resources Challenges in the Middle East TU Berlin, Germany 27 June 2013 Ralf Klingbeil Regional Advisor Environment & Water

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