Water, Scarcity, Climate Changein the Middle East:Challenges to Water ManagementMuscat, Oman       Ralf Klingbeil20-22 Mar...
Opening Quotes• “The Middle East ran out of water in the 1970s.”                                                   Anthony...
Iraq – Displacement due to Drought                                          IOM, July 20101 February 2012    www.escwa.un....
Iraq – Water Needs 2008 - 2010                                          IOM, July 20101 February 2012      www.escwa.un.or...
Outline• UN ESCWA: A UN Regional Commission• Water - Challenges• Scarcity     – Resources     – Competition     – Governan...
UN ESCWA and the                   Regional Dimension in the UN                                 ECE                       ...
UN ESCWA• 14 Member Countries   •   Bahrain   •   Egypt   •   Iraq   •   Jordan   •   Kuwait   •   Lebanon   •   Qatar   •...
Water - Challenges•   Status and Trends•   Availability vs. Use and Demand•   Renewable vs. Non-Renewable•   Population Gr...
Actual Renewable Freshwater Resources                 per Capita. by Region                                         FAO AQ...
Percent of Total Renewable Water                  Resources Withdrawn, by Region                                          ...
Total Renewable Water per Person                      in ESCWA Region         Water Stress         Water Scarcity         ...
Total Actual Renewable Water                  Resources per Capita in MENA           Water Stress           Water Scarcity...
High Rate of Population Growth                                           ICBA, Barghouti, 20091 February 2012         www....
Renewable - Non-Renewable                         Groundwater              Renewable groundwater resources              No...
Scarcity                  Resources, Competition and                         Governance1 February 2012            www.escw...
Wadi Al-Sirhan, Saudi Arabia1 February 2012             www.escwa.un.org     16
Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia1 February 2012        www.escwa.un.org                        17                    ...
Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia   Accumulated 30 year groundwater abstraction, 1975 - 2004 per   Region for KSA (Wat...
Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia   Location of aquifer utilisation zones and outcrop area of principal   aquifers (Wa...
Sustainability and                  Non-Renewable Groundwater• Immediate gains vs. long term benefits• No clear “Exit Stra...
Declining Shares of Agriculture in GDP                                             ICBA, Barghouti, 20091 February 2012   ...
Perverse Incentives for Excess Irrigation                                            WB, 20071 February 2012     www.escwa...
Alternative Future Water Policy OptionsEssentially 3 future policy options available:• Population Policy change –  high po...
Sources of Water and Use                                             ICBA, Barghouti, 20091 February 2012           www.es...
Climate Change and Water             in the Region                  Understanding Impacts                  Making Adaptati...
Potential Impacts• Coupled with excessive population growth and  rising living standards,  climate change will exacerbate ...
Potential Impacts•   Changes in water availability     –   Increase system resilience through surface / underground storag...
Change in Precipitation                                            Hue shows change in mm/y.                              ...
Change in Length of Dry Season                                          Evans, J.P., 2009.                                ...
Changes in RCM projections of seasonal  precipitation (mm/season) across the region             Mar to May 2070           ...
Changes in RCM projections of seasonal  precipitation (mm/season) across the regionHemming, D. et al., 2007. Environmental...
Main Messages 1/2• Water is everybody’s business.• Goal of many countries:  National water strategy for water security,  e...
Main Messages 2/2• Policy changes regarding water consumption & protection     – Water sector,     – agriculture sector, a...
Water, Scarcity, Climate Changein the Middle East:Challenges to Water ManagementMuscat, Oman       Ralf Klingbeil20-22 Mar...
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R. Klingbeil, 2011: Water, Scarcity, Climate Change in the Middle East: Challenges to Water Management

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Klingbeil, R., 2011. Water, Scarcity, Climate Change in the Middle East: Challenges to Water Management. Presentation at the International Workshop on Hydrology: Nature & Engineering and the World Water Day celebration. 20-22 March 2011, Sultan Qaboos University (SQU), Muscat, Oman.

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R. Klingbeil, 2011: Water, Scarcity, Climate Change in the Middle East: Challenges to Water Management

  1. 1. Water, Scarcity, Climate Changein the Middle East:Challenges to Water ManagementMuscat, Oman Ralf Klingbeil20-22 March 2011 Regional Advisor Environment & Water
  2. 2. Opening Quotes• “The Middle East ran out of water in the 1970s.” Anthony (Tony) Allan Stockholm World Water Prize Laureate, 2008• “Arabs are already in the heart of the water catastrophe.”• “Any delay in a serious response to the water challenge corresponds to mass suicide. The water apocalypse is knocking on Arab doors, right now.” Najib Saab, Secretary General AFED on 12 June 2010 Winner of the UAE Zayed International Prize for the Environment 20111 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 2
  3. 3. Iraq – Displacement due to Drought IOM, July 20101 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 3
  4. 4. Iraq – Water Needs 2008 - 2010 IOM, July 20101 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 4
  5. 5. Outline• UN ESCWA: A UN Regional Commission• Water - Challenges• Scarcity – Resources – Competition – Governance• Climate Change in the Region – Understanding Impacts – Making Adaptation Work• ESCWA’s work: Climate Change and Water• Where Shall We Go From Here? How Bleak is the Future?1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 5
  6. 6. UN ESCWA and the Regional Dimension in the UN ECE 1947 ESCWA ECLAC 1973 1948 ECA ESCAP 1958 19471 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 6
  7. 7. UN ESCWA• 14 Member Countries • Bahrain • Egypt • Iraq • Jordan • Kuwait • Lebanon • Qatar • Oman • Palestine • Saudi Arabia • Sudan • Syrian Arab Republic • United Arab Emirates • Yemen 1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 7
  8. 8. Water - Challenges• Status and Trends• Availability vs. Use and Demand• Renewable vs. Non-Renewable• Population Growth and Agriculture• Pollution – Reduction of Available Resources• Virtual Water• Water Imports and Transfers• Desalination• Transboundary Water and Aquifers• ... and Climate Change1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 8
  9. 9. Actual Renewable Freshwater Resources per Capita. by Region FAO AQUASTST, WB 20071 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 9
  10. 10. Percent of Total Renewable Water Resources Withdrawn, by Region FAO AQUASTAT data 1998-2002, WB 20071 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 10
  11. 11. Total Renewable Water per Person in ESCWA Region Water Stress Water Scarcity Extreme Water Scarcity ESCWA, 20091 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 11
  12. 12. Total Actual Renewable Water Resources per Capita in MENA Water Stress Water Scarcity Extreme Water Scarcity FAO AQUASTAT, WB 20071 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 12
  13. 13. High Rate of Population Growth ICBA, Barghouti, 20091 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 13
  14. 14. Renewable - Non-Renewable Groundwater Renewable groundwater resources Non-renewable groundwater Non ground water resources ESCWA, 20091 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 14
  15. 15. Scarcity Resources, Competition and Governance1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 15
  16. 16. Wadi Al-Sirhan, Saudi Arabia1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 16
  17. 17. Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 17 FAO AQUASTAT, 2008
  18. 18. Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia Accumulated 30 year groundwater abstraction, 1975 - 2004 per Region for KSA (WaterWatch, 2006)1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 18
  19. 19. Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia Location of aquifer utilisation zones and outcrop area of principal aquifers (WaterWatch, 2006)1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 19
  20. 20. Sustainability and Non-Renewable Groundwater• Immediate gains vs. long term benefits• No clear “Exit Strategy”, no replacement for non-renewable water resource we are here, but where are we going next? after Al Zubari, 20101 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 20
  21. 21. Declining Shares of Agriculture in GDP ICBA, Barghouti, 20091 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 21
  22. 22. Perverse Incentives for Excess Irrigation WB, 20071 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 22
  23. 23. Alternative Future Water Policy OptionsEssentially 3 future policy options available:• Population Policy change – high political risk, long term impact, adopted economic development model• Agricultural Policy change – medium political risk, medium term impact• Water Policy change – lower political risk, short term impact• Combination of two or three of the above1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 23
  24. 24. Sources of Water and Use ICBA, Barghouti, 20091 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 24
  25. 25. Climate Change and Water in the Region Understanding Impacts Making Adaptation Work1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 25
  26. 26. Potential Impacts• Coupled with excessive population growth and rising living standards, climate change will exacerbate water scarcity conditions across the Arab world.• Persistent reduction of total annual precipitation coupled with rising temperatures will reduce water availability.1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 26
  27. 27. Potential Impacts• Changes in water availability – Increase system resilience through surface / underground storage and transfer capacity – Shift form surface to underground storage where applicable to reduce evaporation losses• Urban drainage networks - new dimensions – Sewage systems, storm runoff• Desalination - higher temperature in feed water may increase algae growth and risk of closure of plant intake – Improve intake procedures – Increase storage and transfer capacity• Infrastructure failures – Higher flooding intensities, frequencies – Higher temperatures,• Changes in hydraulic patterns and temperatures – Loss of snowpack storage in Lebanon, Oman, etc.• Groundwater recharge changes, impacts on spring and river discharges – Increase managed aquifer recharge schemes – Better monitoring and scientific understanding of recharge mechanism for predictive planning of alternatives, before springs cease• Seawater level rise – Increasing groundwater salinisation1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 27
  28. 28. Change in Precipitation Hue shows change in mm/y. Saturation / intensity shows the change as percentage of 2005 PPTN. Evans, J.P., 2009. 21st Century Climate Change in the Middle East.1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 28
  29. 29. Change in Length of Dry Season Evans, J.P., 2009. 21st Century Climate Change in the Middle East.1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 29
  30. 30. Changes in RCM projections of seasonal precipitation (mm/season) across the region Mar to May 2070 Sep to Nov 2070Hemming, D. et al., 2007. Environmental Stresses from Detailed Climate Model Simulations for theMiddle East and Gulf Regions. Defense and Security Implications of Climate Change – Gulf Region1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 30
  31. 31. Changes in RCM projections of seasonal precipitation (mm/season) across the regionHemming, D. et al., 2007. Environmental Stresses from Detailed Climate Model Simulations for theMiddle East and Gulf Regions. Defense and Security Implications of Climate Change – Gulf Region1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 31
  32. 32. Main Messages 1/2• Water is everybody’s business.• Goal of many countries: National water strategy for water security, enough water for all demands.• Countries in the region largely unable to sustain water needs only from within national boundaries.• All countries are already net water importers through food imports – virtual water.• Largest water consumer is agriculture, although rarely economically viable nor socially necessary.1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 32
  33. 33. Main Messages 2/2• Policy changes regarding water consumption & protection – Water sector, – agriculture sector, and – population policies.• Ground- & surface water resources often transboundary – willingness to cooperate between neighbouring countries, – equitable sharing of benefits from a common resource.• Without cooperation, without innovative integration of – economic tools, – social justice and – environmentally sustainable approaches, without regional and bilateral agreements on water, the region may actually slowly move towards a mass suicide.1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 33
  34. 34. Water, Scarcity, Climate Changein the Middle East:Challenges to Water ManagementMuscat, Oman Ralf Klingbeil20-22 March 2011 Regional Advisor Environment & Water

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