The document discusses the demographic transition model (DTM) and population trends in different parts of the world. It provides data on birth rates, death rates, population growth rates, life expectancy and total fertility rates globally and across various regions. The DTM shows how these indicators change as countries develop, typically from high birth and death rates to lower rates as countries industrialize. The model has four stages that reflect these transitions. The document also notes some countries may now be entering a fifth stage where population declines as birth rates fall below replacement levels.

1. The Demographic Transition
To be able to explain the DTM and
explain why countries are in different
stages.

2. What happens to Birth and Death rates as
countries get richer?
Natural
increase %
Birth rate
Per 1000
Death rate
per 1000
IMR per
1000
Life expec.
Years
Total
fertility rate
Pop.
Density per
sq km
World 1.2 21 9 52 2.7 49
68
MEDCs 0.1 11 10 6 1.6 27
77
LEDCs 1.5 23 8 57 2.9 65
66
53
Africa 2.4 38 14 86 5.0 31
N. America 0.6 14 8 6 2.0 15
Latin
America
77
1.5 21 6 24 2.5 28
68
Asia 1.2 19 7 48 2.4 126
73
Europe -0.1 10 11 6 1.5 32
75
Oceania 1.0 18 7 27 2.1 4
75

3. Population growth in perspective….
World Population Clock: 7 Billion People -
Worldometers

4. World population growth
1. Where in the world is population still growing ?
2. Where is Population growth slow?
3. Where is population in actual decline?

5. The Demographic Transition

6. The Demographic Transition Model
This model shows how the population of a country changes over time. The traditional
version of the model has four stages.
High population
Low population
40
30
20
10
0
Pre-industrial society MEDC after industrialisation
Rate per
1,000
population
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Time
Population
Death rate
Birth rate
Stage 1 2 3 4
Birth rate
Death rate
Total population
High
High
High Decreasing
Increasing High
Decreasing
Low
Low
Low
Low Increasing

7. 65
15
Age
Population structure and the DTM
40
30
20
10
0
Rate per 1,000 population
High
population
Population
Death rate
Birth rate
Low
population
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Time
Stage 1 expanding Stage 2 expanding Stage 3 stationary Stage 4 contracting
High birth rate; rapid fall in
each upward age group
due to high death rates;
short life expectancy
High birth rate; fall in
death rate as more
living in middle age;
slightly longer life
expectancy.
Declining birth rate; low
death rate; more
people living to old age.
Percentage
Low birth rate; low death
rate; high dependency
ratio; longer life expectancy
male
female

8. The Use of the Demographic Transition Model
Fill the gap: Afghanistan, birth, country, death, fall, first, Lanka,
model, people, predict, quickly, rates, time, total, useful.
The demographic transition ___________ (DTM) shows birth and
___________ rates as well as the total population growth
___________. It suggests how these figures change over
___________. Therefore, it shows that a ___________ with a
high ___________ rate and a high death rate has a small total
population such as ___________. In the future the model shows
that both birth rates and death rates will probably ___________,
but as the death rate falls ___________ the total population will
grow very ___________ during these stages. Countries like Sri
___________ are growing very quickly. The DTM is ___________
as it lets governments ___________ what will happen to their
populations. It shows that if measures are taken to reduce birth
rates then the ___________ population will not grow as quickly.

9. The fifth stage of the DTM
Is there a stage 5?
It has been suggested that countries where birth rates fall below death rates
to give a declining population may form stage 5.
Most of these are in Europe
Country Birth rate (/000) Death rate
(/000)
Hungary 10 13
Germany 8 10
Belarus 9 14
The UK's population is expected to
start declining by 2021.

12. 1 (a) (ii) Explain why the rate of natural increase in poor countries such as
Indonesia is falling. (20 marks)
1 (a) (ii) The question is on natural increase so the candidates have to cover both birth rates and death rates. It is
possible that the candidate answers the question by reference to the DTM, which is acceptable, although this may result
in a lack of detail, required for the higher levels. The command word is explain so mere description would be
insufficient. Accept size or rate of increase
1 (a) (ii) Explain why the rate of natural increase in poor countries such as
Indonesia is falling. (20 marks)
1 (a) (ii) The question is on natural increase so the candidates have to cover both birth rates and death rates. It is
possible that the candidate answers the question by reference to the DTM, which is acceptable, although this may result
in a lack of detail, required for the higher levels. The command word is explain so mere description would be
insufficient. Accept size or rate of increase
1 (a) (ii) Explain why the rate of natural increase in poor countries such as
Indonesia is falling. (20 marks)
1 (a) (ii) The question is on natural increase so the candidates have to cover both birth rates and death rates. It is
possible that the candidate answers the question by reference to the DTM, which is acceptable, although this may result
in a lack of detail, required for the higher levels. The command word is explain so mere description would be
insufficient. Accept size or rate of increase

13. 1 (a) (ii) Explain why the rate of natural increase in poor
countries such as Indonesia is falling. (20 marks)
1 (a) (ii) The question is on natural increase so the candidates have to cover both birth rates and death rates. It
is possible that the candidate answers the question by reference to the DTM, which is acceptable, although this
may result in a lack of detail, required for the higher levels. The command word is explain so mere description
would be insufficient. Accept size or rate of increase
Level 1 (Basic) 1-7 marks
Simple statements not really appreciating that natural increase reflects both the birth and death rate.
The birth rate is falling. People are using more contraception. There is a need for fewer children.
Level 2 (Clear) 8-14marks
Linked statements referring to birth rates and/or death rates.
There is less need for so many children as infant mortality falls so more survive into adulthood and therefore will
be able to look after their parents when they are old.
Level 3 (Detailed) 15-20 marks
Linked statements showing an appreciation that the rate in natural increase reflects changes in both the birth
and the death rates.
The decrease in the birth rate due to the increasing effective use of contraception means that although the
death rate is also declining due to better health care the difference between the two is getting smaller and so
the rate of natural increase slows down. Max 17 on the lines of the DTM and narrowing of the gap required for
19+ marks.