demographic transition

2. TIME TO LEARN ABOUT A NEW MODEL
TO PREDICT POPULATION GROWTH!
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• When we talk about a model in Geography, we are talking about
a visual way of predicting how something might happen based on
what has happened in other places
The DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL or DTM shows
population change over time.
The DTM studies how changes in the birth rate and death rate
can affect the total population of the country and the way a
population
This model is based on what happened in Europe and North
America from when people were first living there to today
This means developed countries can generally be found in the
later stages of the model and less developed countries are still in
the earlier stages of the model as they started developing later.

3. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL

7. STAGE ONE:
• At this stage the population is not growing and the number of
people is small. This is because the birth rate and death rates
are both high.
WHY WOULD BOTH BIRTH RATES AND DEATH RATES BE
HIGH?
• No country is still in Stage 1. Remote tribes in the rainforests in
the Amazon or in a remote area in Laos may be the only example
of a group of people who fit this stage

8. REASONS FOR BIRTH AND DEATH RATE
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Birth Rate is high
because of:
Lack of family planning
High Infant Mortality Rate:
putting babies in the 'bank'
Need for workers in
agriculture
Religious beliefs
Children as economic assets
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Death Rate is high
because of:
High levels of disease
Famine
Lack of clean water and
sanitation
Lack of health care
War
Competition for food from
predators such as rats
Lack of education
No country is currently
in this stage.

10. STAGE TWO
• Here the number of people are starting to grow as the death
rates start to fall but the birth rates remain quite high.
WHY WOULD THE DEATH RATE FALL AND THE BIRTH RATE
STAY THE SAME?
• Countries in this stage of the DTM include Afghanistan, Bhutan
and Laos

11. REASONS FOR DECREASING DEATH RATE
Reasons for declining death rate
•Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox Vaccine)
•Improved Hygiene (Water for drinking boiled)
•Improved sanitation
•Improved food production and storage
•Improved transport for food
•Decreased Infant Mortality Rates
Typicalof Britain in 19th century;
Bangladesh; Nigeria

13. STAGE THREE
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• At this stage the population is growing very rapidly but the gap
between the birth and the death rates is starting to become
narrower.
At this stage the NATURAL INCREASE is HIGH
WHY WOULD THE BIRTH RATE STARTED TO HAVE
DROPPED?
• Countries in this stage of the DTM include INDIA, Malaysia and
Bangladesh

14. REASONS FOR DECLINING DEATH AND BIRTH
RATE
Reasons behind birth and death rate falling:
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Family planning available
Lower Infant Mortality Rate
Increased mechanization reduces need for workers
Increased standard of living
Changing status of women

16. STAGE FOUR
• In Stage 4, the total population is high but it is no longer growing
very quickly. This is because the birth rate and death rate are
balanced as both are now low.
WHY HAVE BOTH THE BIRTH AND DEATH RATES LEVELLED
OFF?
• Countries in this stage are usually developed. NZ, China and
Singapore would be located in this stage.

18. STAGE 5?
• This stage would occur in countries
where the number of babies born (birth
rate) is less than the number of people
dying (death rate).
We call this being below
REPLACEMENT level, as in, there are
not enough babies born to replace the
old people dying
Countries reaching this stage are likely
to be Japan and Germany
This could mean that their total
population numbers may start to
DECLINE in the future
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19. REASONS FOR CHANGES
Reasons for changes in birth
rate:
• Family planning
• Better health
• Later marriages
• Improved status of women
Reasons for
changes in death
rate:
• Good health care
• Reliable food supply
• People are generally living
longer
• Birth Rate slightfall.
• Death Rate stable.
• Natural increase:gentle
decrease
Typical of Germany

21. WHAT ARE THE LIMITATIONS?
• It does not include the number of people migrating
• It assumes that all countries will go through the same process of
development,developmentwill nothappen equally and atthe
same rates for each country
• There is no time scale
• Reasons for birth rates and death rates changing can be for very
differentreasons in differentcountries

22. Development Status

23. Identify the stage of this graph in which
population grows the fastest and explain why this
is the case. Besides population growth rate,
describe one economic or societal indicator of a
country in this phase.
FRQ Practic 3.9

24. CAN YOU ANSWER THESE
QUESTIONS?
1. At which stage is the death rate the highest?
2. At which stage is the natural increase the highest?
3. At which stage is there a natural decrease?
4. At which stage is population growth the highest?

25. CAN YOU TELL HOW DEVELOPED A
COUNTRY IS BY LOOKING AT THE DTM?
• As a country passes through the demographic transition model,
the total population rises.
• Most developing countries are at stage 2 or 3 (with a growing
population and a HIGH natural increase). Most developed
countries are now at stage four.

26. AQUICK CLIP TORECAP AND SOME
SILLINESS…
A quick recap…..
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nonCD5GR9bw
Some silliness…
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzxREH08EkI

27. EXTRA FOR EXPERTS: BIRTH
RATE, DEATH RATE AND
NATURAL INCREASE
• DESCRIBE the progression of the birth rate and death rate of a
country as it moves through the stages and EXPLAIN how this
links to natural increase