NCFEF is a non-partisan, nonprofit organization that conducts impartial, objective research and analysis on candidates, campaigns, voter attitudes and demographic changes that impact North Carolina’s political landscape. Executive Director Joe Stewart presented to the Rotary Club of North Raleigh Wednesday August 19, 2015.

1. 2014 Election Updates & Insights
NCFEF is a non-partisan, nonprofit organization that
conducts impartial, objective research and analysis on
candidates, campaigns, voter attitudes and demographic
changes that impact North Carolina’s political landscape.
Joe Stewart
Executive Director
jstewart@ncfef.org
(919) 614-0520
www.ncfef.org
@ncfef
NCFEF

2. 2015 NCFEF Conventional Voting Behavior (CVB)
CVB = voters partisan disposition based
on statewide races since 2008 in which
candidates ran with party affiliation.
This is the voter party-preference
topographical map of North Carolina,
shows state’s partisan geography.

3. 2015 NCFEF Conventional Voting Behavior (CVB)
« Rural (GOP) versus Urban (DEM)
« Suburbs full of ‘swingers’
« Voting pattern factors also emerging in
North Carolina: age (esp. Millennials),
ethnicity, gender, nativity

4. 2015 NCFEF
Conventional Voting Behavior
(CVB)

6. Dr. Rebecca Tippett
NC Demographer
UNC Population Center
Generational Composition
of NC Electorate in 2016
By 2016, North Carolina is
projected to have 7.85 million
adults, with the following
p r o j e c t e d g e n e r a t i o n a l
breakdown:
Greatest ( – 1927): 82,800
Silent (1928-45): 849,400
Boomers (1946-64): 2,329,500
Gen X (1965-81): 2,273,700
Millennial (1982-04): 2,317,000

7. NC Voter Registration Dec 2008 – Aug 2015
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
DEM GOP LIB UNA
-244,919
-64,702
+22,878
+369,630
2008: 6,282,575 2015: 6,365,462
+82,887 Dec 2014: 6,631,398

8. Counties with at least 1/3 UNA
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%

9. 50% of NC Registered Voters Live in 13 Counties
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
White
Black
Am
Indian
Other
Hispanic
Male
Female
46.55%
58.07%
18.19%
65.95%
63.73%
49.62%
50.20%
Democrats
Republicans
Libertarians
Unaffiliated
51.26%
46.38%
56.78%
52.36%

10. Political impact of population density
2012 Presidential Election within US
Congressional District

11. NC Counties with Population Loss, 2010-2014
NC Population Growth Not Even
49 NC counties have lost population since 2010
(2014 Census Bureau Data)

12. STRONG DEM (34) LEAN DEM (2) LEAN REP (14) STRONG REP (59)
29
L. Hall
Durham
114
Fisher
Buncombe
54
Reives
Lee
118
Presnell
Yancey
55
Brody
Union
86
Blackwell
Burke
110
Hastings
Gaston
96
Adams*
Catawba
106
Cunningham
Mecklenburg
42
Lucas
Cumberland
44
Glazier (NR)
Cumberland
49
Pendleton*
Wake
14
Cleveland#
Onslow
82
Pittman
Cabarrus
77
Warren
Rowan
69
Arp
Union
102
Carney
Mecklenburg
5
Hunter
Hertford COMP (11)
9
B. Brown
Pitt
36
Dollar
Wake
15
Shepard
Onslow
98
Bradford*
Mecklenburg
13
McElraft
Carteret
31
Michaux
Durham
32
Baskerville
Vance
66
Goodman
Richmond
45
Szoka
Cumberland
40
Avila
Wake
109
Bumgardner
Gaston
91
Holloway#
Stokes
81
Brown#
Davidson
33
Gill
Wake
72
Hanes
Forsyth
39 Jackson
Wake
63
Ross
Alamance
37
Stam
Wake
26
Daughtry
Johnston
74
Conrad
Forsyth
87
Robinson
Caldwell
99
Moore
Mecklenburg
100
Cotham#
Mecklenburg
50
Meyer
Orange
53
Lewis
Harnett
62
Blust
Guilford
16
Millis#
Pender
104
Bishop*
Mecklenburg
76
Ford
Rowan
38
Lewis Holley
Wake
23
Willingham*
Edgecombe
119
Queen
Haywood
93
Jordan
Ashe
111
Moore
Cleveland
83
Johnson
Cabarrus
10
Bell
Wayne
95
Fraley
Iredell
60
Brockman*
Guilford
47
Graham
Robeson
2
Yarborough*
Person 1
Steinburg
Chowan
75
Lambeth#
Forsyth
19
Davis
New Hanover
84
R. Turner
Iredell
89
Setzer
Catawba
58
Johnson*
Guilford
30
Luebke
Durham
22
Brisson
Bladen
65
Jones
Rockingham
88
Bryan
Mecklenburg
4
Dixon
Duplin
17
Iler
Brunswick
68
Horn
Union
107
Alexander
Mecklenburg
43
Floyd
Cumberland
92
Jeter
Mecklenburg
3
Speciale
Craven
25
Collins#
Nash
59
Hardister
Guilford
108
Torbett
Gaston
94
Elmore
Wilkes
56
Insko
Orange
21
L. Bell
Sampson
115
Ager*
Buncombe
51
Salmon*
Harnett
103
Brawley
Mecklenburg
61
Faircloth
Guilford
105
Schaffer
Mecklenburg
79
Howard
Davie
24
Farmer-
Butterfield
Wilson
7
Richardson
Franklin
6
Tine#
Dare
64
Riddell
Alamance
20
Catlin
New Hanover
52
Boles
Moore
97
Saine
Lincoln
48
Pierce
Scotland
18
Hamilton
New Hanover
8
S. Martin
Wilson
116
B. Turner*
Buncombe
112
Hager
Rutherford
117
McGrady
Henderson
85
Dobson
McDowell
71
Terry
Forsyth
34
G. Martin
Wake
41
Adcock*
Wake
35
Malone
Wake
113
Whitmire
Transylvania
120
West
Cherokee
73
Zachary*
Yadkin
57
Harrison
Guilford
12
Graham
Lenoir
28
Langdon#
Johnston
80
Watford
Davidson
27
Wray
Northampton
11
D. Hall#
Wake *freshman
#thinking about retiring?
NR = not running in 2016
90
Stevens
Surry
70
Hurley
Randolph
101
Earle
Mecklenburg
46
Waddell
Columbus
67
Burr
Stanly
78
McNeill
Randolph
CVB
for
NC
HOUSE
74
REP
–
45
DEM
–
1
UNA

13. CVB
for
NC
SENATE
34
REP
–
16
DEM
STRONG
DEM
(16)
COMPETITIVE
(4)
LEAN
REP
(6)
STRONG
REP
(24)
28
Robinson
Guilford
21
Clark
Hoke
19
Meredith
Cumberland
8
Rabon#
Brunswick
50
Davis
Macon
24
Gunn
Alamance
39
Rucho
Mecklenburg
40
Waddell*
Mecklenburg
5
Davis
Greene
1
Cook
Beaufort
9
Lee*
New
Hanover
46
Daniel
Burke
47
Hise
Mitchell
31
Krawiec
Forsyth
38
Ford
Mecklenburg
13
Smith*
Robeson
25
McInnis*
Richmond
15
Alexander*
Wake
27
Wade
Guilford
2
Sanderson
Pamlico
44
Curs
Lincoln
14
Blue#
Wake
23
Foushee
Orange
18
Barefoot
Wake
10
B.
Jackson#
Sampson
11
Newton
(NR)
Wilson
45
Soucek
Watauga
35
Tucker
Union
20
McKissick
Durham
22
Woodard
Durham
12
Rabin
Harne`
6
Brown
Onslow
48
Apodaca#
Henderson
42
Wells*
Catawba
4
Bryant
Nash
37
J.
Jackson
Mecklenburg
17
Barringer
(NR)
Wake
41
Tarte
Mecklenburg
36
Hartsell#
Cabarrus
33
Bingham
(NR)
Davidson
3
Smith-­‐
Ingram*
Edgecombe
16
Stein
(NR)
Wake
26
Berger
Rockingham
43
Harrington
Gaston
30
Randleman
Wilkes
32
Lowe*
Forsyth
49
Van
Duyn*
Buncombe
*freshman
#thinking about retiring?
NR = not running in 2016
7
Pate
Wayne
34
Brock
Davie
29
Tillman
Randolph

14. CVB
for
US
CONGRESS
10
REP
–
3
DEM
STRONG
DEM
LEAN
REP
(6)
STRONG
REP
(24)
12
Adams*
Guilford
3
Jones
Pi`
13
Holding
Wake
10
McHenry
Gaston
1
Bu`erfield
Wilson
8
Hudson
Cabarrus
2
Ellmers
Harne`
5
Foxx
Watauga
4
Price
Orange
7
Rouzer*
Johnston
6
Walker*
Guilford
11
Meadows
Macon
*freshman
9
Pi`enger
Mecklenburg

15. North Carolina 2016 Election Dynamics
« President, US Sen, Gov on ballot in ‘battleground’ state = a LOT
of political ads (candidates + outside groups) = high turnout?
« Turnout: 2000: 59% *2004: 64% *2008: 70% 2012: 68%
« Probable election landscape = Urban v. Rural, Suburbs in play
« For Dem presidential candidate to win NC = 2008 voter coalition
of minorities, women and younger voters (Can Clinton do it?)
« Watch for ‘enthusiasm gap’ = one party’s base party voters dislike
their party’s candidate(s) more than the other party’s base voters.

16. NC now significantly influenced by national trends and waves
(non-native population = 50% … 20% of voters in NC < 10 years)
Ex: ISIS + Ebola > local issues (Education) = Tillis (GOP) win in 2014
Presidential Primary March 15 = NC will be a key win
following Super Tuesday (March 1)
‘Regular’ Primary = May 3 … Voters = ‘didn’t you just ask us to vote?’
(likely no hotly contested Primary in US Senate, Gov or Council of
State = low voter turnout & potential legislative incumbent upsets)
NC 2016 Election Dynamics: President

17. NC 2016 Election Dynamics: US Senate
« Rated among vulnerable GOP incumbents
« NC CVB = 0, so statewide races generally
tend to be competitive
« 2016 = $200+ million in outside spending
« Suburbs = battleground
« Democrats don’t have a candidate yet

18. « NC CVB = 0, so statewide races generally
tend to be competitive
« Suburbs = battleground
« 2016 = $100+ million in outside spending
« Likely to get ugly quick
NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Governor

19. NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Exec Branch
Governor
Roy Cooper ($3M)
Ken Spaulding
Pat McCrory 56.62% ($2.4M)
Lt.
Governor Linda Coleman ($48K) Dan Forest 50.08% ($247K)
Attorney
General
(OPEN)
Sen. Josh Stein ($1.1M)
Tim Dunn
Sen. Buck Newton ($200K)
Sen. Tamara Barringer
Comm of
Insurance W. Goodwin 51.9% ($360K) Heather Grant ($700)
State
Auditor Beth Wood 53.71%
Secretary
of State Elaine Marshall 53.79%
Comm of
Labor Charles Meeker ($15K) Cherie Berry 53.26% ($15K)
Comm of
Ag Steve Troxler 53.22%
Super of
Public
Instruct
June Atkinson 54.24%
State
Treasurer Janet Cowell 53.83%
% = 2012 results

20. NC 2016 Election Dynamics: State Supreme Court
Voters will
cast their
ballot as to
whether or
not to retain
Justice
Robert H.
Edmunds
(Guilford)

21. NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Court of Appeals
Linda H. Stephens
(Wake County)
1st Term
Democrat
Robert H. Hunter
(Guilford County)
1st Term (appointed 2015)
Republican
Richard Dietz
(Forsyth County)
1st Term (appointed 2014)
Republican

22. NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Factors to Watch
« Economy v. ISIS
« How bad a candidate
is Hillary Clinto?
« Who is the GOP
candidate?
« Is there a 3rd party
candidate?

23. NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Factors to Watch
« Voter attitude (NC now more
influence by ‘national attitude’)
« Outside money
« Who best reaches the
‘undecideds’ (Suburban
Swingers)

24. NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Factors to Watch
« Functioning Democratic Party?
« Factional fighting within GOP
« Campaignable legislative
outcomes from
GOP-controlled Gen Assembly

25. 2014 Election Updates & Insights
Questions?
Joe Stewart
Executive Director
jstewart@ncfef.org
(919) 614-0520
www.ncfef.org
@ncfef
NCFEF