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Public Opinion Landscape

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Election 2016 - 4.19.16

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Public Opinion Landscape

  1. 1. Election 2016 – A Brief Overview and Analysis April 19, 2016
  2. 2. 2 0 1 6 – M O O D O F T H E C O U N T R Y
  3. 3. PAGE 3 GREAT ER I NT EREST I N T HI S YEAR’ S PRESI DENT I AL CAMPAI GN T HAN PREVI OUS YEARS 45% 60% 78% 66% 85% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 % registered voters who say they have given ‘quite a lot’ of thought to the coming presidential elections Source: Pew Research, March 17-27, 2016
  4. 4. PAGE 4 L OSS OF FAI T H I N PRI MARY SYST EM AND PUBL I C’ S POL I T I CAL W I SDOM 59% 31% 33% 40% 42% 43% 30% 35% 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 % voters who say that so far, primaries have been a good way of determining best- qualified nominees Source: Pew Research, March 17-27, 2016 69% 58% 32% 59% 61% 35% 1997 2007 2016 % voters who have a great deal or good deal of confidence in the political wisdom of American public… Democrats Republicans
  5. 5. PAGE 5 T OO MUCH NEW S COVERAGE ON T RUMP, NOT ENOUGH ON KASI CH 7% 14% 16% 41% 75% 29% 53% 57% 48% 19% 60% 29% 23% 8% 3% Kasich Sanders Cruz Clinton Trump % registered voters saying news organizations have given ____ of coverage to each… Too much About right Not enough Source: Pew Research, March 17-27, 2016
  6. 6. 2016 – E LE C TI O N P R E V I E W – TH E P R E S I D E N C Y : R E P U B LI C A N N O M I N A TI O N
  7. 7. PAGE 7 W I NNERS OF EACH STAT E PRI MARY/ CAUC US SO FAR Donald Trump (20) Ted Cruz (11) Marco Rubio (1) Also won DC & Puerto Rico John Kasich (1)
  8. 8. PAGE 8 T RUMP I S W I NNI NG T HE DEL EGAT E RACE SO FAR Current Delegate Count 2,472 Delegates to the Convention 168 RNC Members/Automatic Delegates (6.8%) 1,237 Needed to Win 744 559 144 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Donald Trump Ted Cruz John Kasich Source: Associated Press More than one in 10 delegates will go to the convention in Cleveland either unpledged or pledged to a defunct campaign.
  9. 9. PAGE 9 T RUMP HAS L ED I N NAT I ONAL POL L I NG SI NCE SEPT EMBER Cruz and Kasich See Uptick as Other Candidates Have Dropped Out Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-March, 2016 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 7% 20% 18% 6% 5% 6% 6% 8% 13% 18% 17% 32% 28% 5% 15% 31% 28% 28% 34% 39% 43% 45% 44% June July Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March April 2016 Republican Primary Preference Among Republican and Republican leaning voters Kasich Cruz Trump
  10. 10. PAGE 10 NEW YORK – W HAT ’ S AT STAKE? Source: Huffington Post New York Primary Information When? Tuesday, April 19th Number of Delegates 95 Voter Eligibility Closed Primary Delegate Selection Proportional (Winner take most) Polls are giving Trump 54% of the support in the New York primary. 5% 20% 22% 14% 14% 19% 34% 48% 54% Feb. March April 2016 New York Republican Primary Preference Among New York Republican and Republican leaning voters Kasich Cruz Trump
  11. 11. 2016 – E LE C TI O N P R E V I E W – TH E P R E S I D E N C Y : D E M O C R A TI C N O M I N A TI O N
  12. 12. PAGE 12 W I NNERS OF EACH STAT E PRI MARY/ CAUC US SO FAR Bernie Sanders (15) Hillary Clinton (19)
  13. 13. PAGE 13 CL I NT ON HAS ST RONG L EAD W I T H DEL GAT ES Source NY Times 1289 1045 469 31 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Clinton Sanders Delegates Superdelegates 1,758 1,076 4,763 Delegates to the Convention 4,051 Pledged delegates 712 Superdelegates 2,382 Needed to Win (50% of total) Current Delegate Count
  14. 14. PAGE 14 ALT HOUGH SANDERS HAS NARROW ED T HE L EAD I N NAT I ONAL POL L S, PREDI CT I ON MARKET S ST I L L FAVOR CL I NT ON Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-March, 2016 12% 17% 18% 24% 25% 30% 31% 34% 39% 42% 46% 60% 58% 54% 47% 45% 55% 56% 55% 51% 51% 48% June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March April 2016 Democratic Primary Preference Among Democrats and Democratic leaning voters Sanders Clinton Source: PredictWise 92% 8% Clinton Sanders Chances of becoming the Democratic presidential nominee
  15. 15. PAGE 15 NEW YORK – W HAT ’ S AT STAKE? Source: The New York Times New Hampshire Primary Information When? Tuesday, April 19th Number of Delegates 291 Voter Eligibility Closed Primary Delegate Selection Proportional 55% 54% 55% 33% 38% 42% Feb. March April 2016 New York Democratic Primary Preference Among New York Democratic and Democratic leaning voters Clinton Sanders Clinton leads Sanders 55% to 42% in the latest polling average.
  16. 16. W H A T ’S N E X T ?
  17. 17. PAGE 17 W HAT ’ S AT STAKE – L AT E APRI L Source : New York Times and The Green Papers Voter Eligibility Democratic Delegate Counts (Allocation) Republican Delegate Counts (Allocation) Pennsylvania Closed 210 (Proportional) 71 (Winner-take-all) Maryland Closed 118 (Proportional) 38 (Winner-take-all) Rhode Island Modified 33 (Proportional) 19 (Proportional) Connecticut Closed 71 (Proportional) 28 (Winner-take- most) Delaware Closed 31 (Proportional) 16 (Winner-take-all) April 26th Primary Details Clinton Sanders Pennsylvania 52.1% 35.8% Maryland 60.3% 36.2% Trump Cruz Kasich Penn- sylvania 44.3% 26.7% 25.3% Maryland 41.0% 25.5% 27.0% April 26th PollingAverages
  18. 18. PAGE 18 W HAT ’ S ON TAP I N MAY (PRI MARI ES/ CA UC US ES) Primaries/Caucuses in May Date Republican Democrat May 3 IN IN May 10 NE, WV WV May 17 OR KY, OR May 24 WA
  19. 19. 1025 F Street NW, 9th Floor Washington, DC 20004 121 East 24th Street, 10th Floor New York, NY 10010 202.337.0808 | GPG.COM GPG Research The Glover Park Group is a leading strategic communicationsand governmentaffairs firm. GPG offers an integrated and complementary suite of services to plan,build and execute all mannerof communications tactics,campaigns and programs. Our in-house researchteam is a data and insight-driven outfit. We employ cutting-edge research methodologies,from digital analytics to quantitativeand qualitative opinionresearch,to help our clients understand where the conversation begins and,more importantly,how we can influence it. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Jason Boxt (jboxt@gpg.com)

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