Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Public Opinion Landscape: Economy 5.25.16

468 views

Published on

GPG takes a look at publicly-released polls on a wide range of key economic issues on everything from how the public views the current state of the economy to views on trade.

Published in: News & Politics
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Public Opinion Landscape: Economy 5.25.16

  1. 1. M a y 2 5 , 2 0 1 5 The Public’s Take – The Economy
  2. 2. PAGE 2 TA B L E O F C O N T E NTS Slide Current Economic Indicators 3 Economic Conditions and Views of the Future 4 Views of Obama and the Economy 12 Perceptions of Foreign Trade 16 The Economy and the Election 21
  3. 3. PAGE 3 U N E M PL OYM ENT R AT E H A S I M P R OV ED W H I L E O T H ER E C O NO MI C I N D I C ATOR S H AV E L A G G ED INDICATOR LAST YEAR May 2015 NOW May 2016 Unemployment Rate 5.4% 5.0% Inflation Rate -0.1% 1.1% Stock Market (DJIA) 18,191.11 17,706.05 Consumer Confidence Index 95.2 94.2 U.S. Interest Rates .25% .50% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Yahoo! Finance, The Conference Board, Trading Economics Data as of May 25th
  4. 4. E C O N O M I C C O N D I T I O N S A N D V I E W S O F T H E F U T U R E PAGE 4
  5. 5. PAGE 5 S T R O NG M A J O RI TY A R E W O R R I ED T H AT T H E U . S . W I L L S U F F E R A N O T HE R E C O N OMI C D O W N TUR N T H AT W I L L N E G ATI VELY A F F E CT T H E IR FA M I LY 31% 41% 20% 7% 1% % Worried the U.S. Will Suffer Another Economic Downturn Very worried Somewhat worried Not too worried Not at all worried Unsure 72% Worried Source: GW Battleground Poll, April 17-20, 2016
  6. 6. PAGE 6 H A L F O F V O T E R S S T R O NGLY B E L I E VE T H AT T H E N E X T G E N E RAT IO N W I L L N O T B E B E T T E R O F F E C O N O MI CAL LY 50% 15% 8% 13% 15% % Believe the Next Generation Will Be Better Off Economically No, strongly No Unsure Yes Yes, strongly 65% No Source: GW Battleground Poll, April 17-20, 2016
  7. 7. Source: Pew Research Poll, March 17-27, 2016 PAGE 7 G O P V O T E R S, E S P EC IAL LY T R U MP S U P P ORT ERS , S AY L I F E I N T H E U . S . H A S G O T T E N W O R S E F O R P E O P L E L I K E T H E M 46% 66% 28% 75% 34% 22% 34% 19% 48% 13% 45% 53% 14% 10% 17% 8% 15% 18% All voters Republicans/Lean Republicans Democrats/Lean Democrats Trump Supporters Clinton Supporters Sanders Supporters Compared with 50 Years Ago, Life for People Like You in America Is… Worse Better Same
  8. 8. Source: Pew Research Center Poll, March 17-27, 2016 PAGE 8 B U T A M E R I CAN S’ V I E W S O F T H E E C O N O MY A R E A P P R OA CHI NG P R E - R ECES SI ON L E V E LS How would you rate economic conditions in this country today… as excellent, good, only fair, or poor? 22% 25% 56% 68% 53% 53% 51% 40% 36% 40% 33% 30% 28% 28% 44% 40% 32% 25% 39% 38% 38% 43% 48% 43% 45% 43% 45% 43% 29% 27% 10% 6% 6% 7% 9% 15% 14% 15% 19% 24% 24% 26% 4% 6% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% Mar 2006 June 2007 Mar 2008 Mar 2009 Mar 2010 Mar 2011 Mar 2012 Mar 2013 Dec 2013 Apr 2014 Oct 2014 May 2015 Dec 2015 Mar 2016 Excellent Good Only fair Poor Note: “DK/REF” results are not shown.
  9. 9. PAGE 9 S A N D ER S’ S U P PO RTER S O V E RW HEL MIN GLY B E L I EV E T H E U . S . E C O N OM IC S Y S TE M FAV O RS T H E P O W E RF UL 68% 54% 80% 61% 73% 91% 30% 44% 19% 38% 25% 9% All voters Republicans/Lean Republicans Democrats/Lean Democrats Trump Supporters Clinton Supporters Sanders Supporters % of Voters Who Say Economic System in the U.S. … Unfairly favors powerful interests Generally fair to most Americans Source: Pew Research Poll, March 17-27, 2016
  10. 10. PAGE 10 A N D T H E R E I S A L A R G E PA R TI SAN D I V I DE O N V I E W S O F C O R P OR ATE P R O F I TS 57% 37% 75% 43% 69% 82% 39% 58% 22% 53% 27% 16% All voters Republicans/Lean Republicans Democrats/Lean Democrats Trump Supporters Clinton Supporters Sanders Supporters % of Voters Who Say Business Corporations… Make too much profit Make a fair and reasonable amount Source: Pew Research Poll, March 17-27, 2016
  11. 11. Source: Gallup Poll, April 6-10, 2016 PAGE 11 10% 11% 17% 21% 26% 30% 43% 40% 89% 88% 81% 77% 71% 66% 53% 58% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% April 2009 April 2010 April 2011 April 2012 April 2013 April 2014 April 2015 April 2016 Good time Bad time A M E R I CAN S S L I G HT LY L E S S P O S I T IV E A B O U T F I N D IN G A J O B Thinking about the job situation in America today, would you say that it is now a good time or a bad time to find a quality job?
  12. 12. V I E W S O F O B A M A A N D T H E E C O N O M Y PAGE 12
  13. 13. PAGE  13 O B A M A’ S J O B A P P R O VAL AT O R N E A R 5 0 % ; U P 4 - P O I NTS F R O M T H I S T I M E L A S T Y E A R Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of May 24, 2016 Term 52-Week High 53% May 7-9, 2016 52-Week Low 42% Dec 16-18, 2015 All-Time High 69% Jan 22-24, 2009 All-Time Low 38% Sep 3-5, 2014 Term Avg to Date 48% Jan 20, 2009 – May 25, 2016 Current Quarter Avg to Date 51% Apr 20 – May 25, 2016 Last Quarter Avg 49.5% Jan 20 – Apr 19, 2016 APPROVE 49.6% DISAPPROVE 47.3% Obama’s Overall Job Approval
  14. 14. 65% 57% 51% 48% 29% Eisenhower (1960) Clinton (2000) Obama (2016) Reagan (1988) G.W. Bush (2008) PAGE  14 O V E R AL L O B A MA’ S A P P R OVA L N E A R I NG T H AT O F C L I N TO N’S H A L F WAY T H R OU GH F I N A L Y E A R Job Approval Ratings for Prior Presidents in May of Final Year of 2nd Term Weekly Approval Rating Average May 16 – 22, 2016 Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
  15. 15. Source: HuffPost Pollster Average PAGE  15 45% 42% 41% 48% 51% 48% The economy Health Care Foreign Policy Approve Disapprove O B A M A O N T H E I S S U E S Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing on the following issues?
  16. 16. P E R C E P T I O N S O F F O R E I G N T R A D E PAGE 16
  17. 17. PAGE 17 M A J O R IT Y O F A M E R I CA NS S T I L L S E E O P P O RT UNI TY I N F O R E I GN T R A D E What do you think foreign trade means for America? Do you see foreign trade more as an opportunity for economic growth through increased U.S. exports or a threat to the economy from foreign imports? Source: Gallup Poll, April 21-24, 2016 44% 53% 54% 56% 51% 52% 49% 44% 45% 43% 41% 44% 45% 46% 57% 54% 58% 58% 48% 38% 35% 36%37% 39% 41% 48% 46% 48% 52% 47% 45% 46% 35% 38% 33% 34% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Opportunity for economic growth Threat to the economy
  18. 18. Source: GW Battleground Poll, April 17-20, 2016 PAGE 18 B U T M O S T B E L I E VE I N T E RN ATI ONAL T R A D E D E A L S H AV E B E E N B A D F O R T H E U . S . E C O N O MY 27% 29% 44% Bad for the U.S. economy Good for the U.S. economy Not sure NAFTA  Has  Been… 12% 13% 23% 50%Bad for the U.S. economy Good for the U.S. economy Not sure International   Trade  Deals  Have  Been… Have not had much impact Source: Bloomberg Politics Poll, March 19-22, 2016
  19. 19. PAGE 19 T R U M P S U P P ORTE RS V I E W F R E E T R A DE A G R EE MEN TS A S B A D F O R T H E U N I T ED S TATES 43% 53% 34% 67% 31% 38% 47% 38% 56% 27% 58% 55% All voters Republicans/Lean Republicans Democrats/Lean Demcorats Trump Supporters Clinton Supporters Sanders Supporters % of Voters Who Say Free Trade Agreements Have Been a Good/Bad Thing for the U.S. Bad Thing Good Thing Source: Pew Research Poll, March 17-27, 2016
  20. 20. PAGE 20 M A J O R IT Y O F A M E R I CA NS B E L I E VE O U R T R A D E P O L I C Y S H O UL D H AV E M O R E R E S TR ICT IO NS 12% 22% 65%More restrictions Fewer restrictions Not sure U.S.  Trade  Policy  Should  Have… Source: Bloomberg Politics Poll, March 19-22, 2016 Generally speaking, do you think U.S. trade policy should have more restrictions on imported foreign goods to protect American jobs, or have fewer restrictions to enable American consumers to have the most choices and the lowest prices?
  21. 21. E C O N O M Y A N D T H E E L E C T I O N
  22. 22. PAGE 22 T H E E C O N O MY I S S E E N A S T H E M O S T I M P O RTA NT I S S U E F O R T H E N E X T P R E S I DENT T O A D D R ESS 19% 14% 11% 10% 8% 6% 5% 5% 3% The economy Dysfunction in government Foreign threats Jobs Health care Social Security Illegal immigration The deficit Taxes Most Important Issue for the Next President Source: GW Battleground Poll, April 17-20, 2016
  23. 23. PAGE 23 R E P U BL IC ANS A R E M U C H M O R E L I K E LY T O M E N T IO N T H E E C O N OM Y A S T H E M O S T I M P O RTANT P R O B LE M FA C I NG T H E U . S . 17% 16% 22% 8% 15% 16% 28% 23% 29% 14% 13% 15% 10% 12% 19% 16% 17% 16% 14% 9% 14% 8% 12% 4% 12% 13% 11% Sep '15 Oct '15 Nov '15 Dec '15 Jan '16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 % Mentioning Economy as Most Important Problem Republicans Independents Democrats Source: Gallup Poll, May 4-8, 2016
  24. 24. Source: Gallup Poll, April 6-10, 2016 PAGE 24 I N D E P ENDE NTS M O S T C O N F ID ENT I N S A N D E RS O N E C O N OM Y 49% 56% 68% 47% 43% 30% Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Americans’ Confidence in Presidential Candidates to Handle the Economy Only a little/Almost none Great deal/Fair amount Republicans: 17% Independents: 46% Democrats: 74% Republicans: 12% Independents: 35% Democrats: 79% Republicans: 58% Independents: 30% Democrats: 9%
  25. 25. PAGE 25 T H E E C O N O MY D U R I NG P R E SI DE NTI AL E L E CT IO NS § The economy has reliably been one of the most important factors influencing a presidential election. § A strong economy helps to keep the party in power in power. § A weak economy tends to cause voters to want to change the residents of the White House. § But right now, the economy could be best described as moderately, perhaps deceptively, successful. § Growth is lukewarm, but it has been consistent enough to create hundreds of thousands of new jobs. Wages have not risen by much, and the uneven recovery has left segments of the population behind. But the overall unemployment rate is down to 5 percent. That’s unusual for a presidential election season — it has been at 5 percent or lower in only three of the 14 contests that have taken place since 1960. § The quiet strength of the economy may have an impact on the campaign. § Jobs and economic growth will always matter to voters, but the lack of stark economic problems may allow other issues and unconventional policies to rise to the forefront. Source: New York Times.
  26. 26. 1025 F Street NW, 9th Floor Washington, DC 20004 121 East 24th Street, 10th Floor New York, NY 10010 202.337.0808 | GPG.COM GPG Research The Glover Park Group is a leading strategic communications and government affairs firm. GPG offers an integrated and complementary suite of services to plan, build and execute all manner of communications tactics, campaigns and programs. Our in-house research team is a data- and insight-driven outfit. We employ cutting-edge research methodologies, from digital analytics to quantitative and qualitative opinion research, to help our clients understand where the conversation begins and, more importantly, how we can influence it. On top of a full complement of quantitative and qualitative public opinion research services, we also routinely put together a variety of presentations from the most recent national surveys.For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Jason Boxt (jboxt@gpg.com)

×