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Brooks v. Gregg


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Less than 48 hours after Indiana Governor Mike Pence gave his endorsement to Lt. Governor Eric Holcomb to replace him on the ballot, Congresswoman Susan Brooks is releasing a poll showing she has the best chance at defeating Democrat John Gregg in the fall.

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Brooks v. Gregg

  1. 1. The Tarrance Group 201 North Union Street, Suite 410 Alexandria, VA 22314 (703) 684-6688 1 MEMORANDUM TO: Susan for Indiana FROM: B.J. Martino DATE: July 23, 2016 RE: Key Findings from a Survey of Voters in Indiana The Tarrance Group is pleased to present Susan for Indiana with the summary findings from a survey of voter attitudes in Indiana, based on a sample of N=503 registered voters. Responses to this survey were gathered July 20-21, 2016. The margin of error is + 4.4% in 95 out of 100 cases. Executive Summary While Donald Trump at the top of the ticket is well ahead on the ballot, Indiana voters are less definitive about their choice for Governor and are generically split. All three potential Republican candidates for Governor trail the Democratic nominee in this poll. Our nominee matters. The results of our poll clearly indicate that Susan Brooks is uniquely suited to lead Indiana Republicans to victory in the Fall. Her profile and record are widely popular with broad swaths of the electorate, and particularly appealing to critical segments that will determine the outcome of the race for Governor. Without testing a single negative message about Gregg, voters respond well to the positive Brooks message and switch to her on the ballot. Among the biggest movers on the ballot were married and independent women, two critical groups of voters in the upcoming election. Ballot movement occurred statewide due to the messages, including in the critical Indianapolis media market. Key Findings The Presidential Election- Strong At The Top Over the final two days of the Republican convention, Indiana voters are giving Donald Trump and Mike Pence a fourteen-point lead over Hillary Clinton and her running mate, 50% to 36%. Fully 40% say they are definitely voting for Trump, while just 28% were definitely for Clinton. Trump leads Clinton by fully 25-points among men, and is in fact up 6-points with women. This is also a significant over-performance among men when compared to the current generic ballot for governor.
  2. 2. The Tarrance Group 201 North Union Street, Suite 410 Alexandria, VA 22314 (703) 684-6688 2 The Gubernatorial Generic Ballot- A Close Race While Trump cruises, voters are divided on which party they would prefer hold the governor’s office. The Republican has a marginal 2-point edge, 43% to 41%, over the Democrat. The generic ballot for governor is lagging a bit due to lower partisan intensity, as well as challenges with independents, especially independent women. Republican voters are at only 75% support for a Republican candidate, while Democrats are 85% for their candidate generically. And independents are overall nearly 2:1 currently for the Democrat, and over 2:1 among independent women. The Hypothetical Ballots for Governor- Far From Automatic Three potential Republican nominees, Susan Brooks, Eric Holcomb, and Todd Rokita, have similar name awareness among voters. All three potential nominees, however, are down on the initial ballot versus John Gregg, when tested in a three-way race that includes the libertarian. ► Susan Brooks is 5-points back from Gregg, 36% to 41%. ► Todd Rokita is also 5-points down to Gregg, 36% to 41%. ► Eric Holcomb is down 8-points, registering 34% on the ballot, with Gregg at 42%. The results of these ballots clearly show that any Republican candidate will have start from behind in the sprint to election day. Republicans need the right candidate, with the right experience, and one able to run the right campaign. Susan Brooks- A Singular Record That Resonates With Voters Susan Brooks offers a unique and powerful profile to voters. As respondents were read different aspects of her impressive record, reactions ranged up to fully 75% more favorable to her. Voters, specifically women voters, gravitate to her record as an accomplished leader and someone qualified to take on tough jobs. Her ability to bring people and groups together in order to accomplish goals is also a most welcome skill, including with the key independent voters. Voters who learned about Brooks propelled her to a 7-point lead. An astonishing 27% of independent women changed their vote to Susan based on the positive information alone.
  3. 3. The Tarrance Group 201 North Union Street, Suite 410 Alexandria, VA 22314 (703) 684-6688 3 At the same time, voters in the key Indianapolis media market move from evenly split initially to a 10-point Brooks advantage after building a positive foundation. It is important to note this significant movement occurred again with only positive messaging, and no negatives on Gregg were tested. Conclusion- Brooks Has The Right Record and Is Best Positioned to Win Election With the Presidential race, there is a clear advantage. The race for Governor is not so certain. Republicans have less of an advantage than they have faced in several election cycles. The Republican nominee will need to make a strong case, run a solid campaign, and appeal to key voters. Susan Brooks has a record of running and winning challenging campaigns. She has a history of accomplishment that voters in Indiana find highly attractive, especially those key swing voter segments who will ultimately determine the outcome. Considering these attributes alongside the challenges Republicans face in the Governor’s race, Susan Brooks is the candidate best positioned for a sprint to the finish. # # #