1. ELECTIONS AND THE ECONOMY: PAST, PRESENT
AND FUTURE
1
Douglas B. Roberts, Ph.D.
Director
Institute for Public Policy & Social Research
College of Social Science
Michigan State University

2. Source: Wards Automotive News, Michigan Senate Fiscal Agency,
Citizens Research Council, IPPSR Research, Bloomberg Visual Data 2
40.0
44.0
48.0
52.0
56.0
60.0
64.0
68.0
72.0
76.0
9
11
13
15
17
U.S. car maker light vehicle sales (in millions)
Detroit 3 Market Share and Light Vehicle Sales
Market Share (percentage)
Light vehicle sales

3. 3
Unemployment Rates: Michigan and U.S.
(1966-2013)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
MI 2014 average to date: 7.56% U.S. 2014 average to date: 6.32% MI August 2014: 7.40 U.S. September 2014: 5.90

4. Year
Michigan (in thousands)
Change
1989
3,922
2.70%
1990
3,947
0.60%
1991
3,884
-1.60%
1992
3,919
0.90%
1993
3,999
2.00%
1994
4,142
3.60%
1995
4,269
3.10%
1996
4,353
2.00%
1997
4,439
2.00%
1998
4,514
1.70%
1999
4,585
1.60%
2000
4,677
2.00%
2001
4,564
-2.40%
2002
4,488
-1.70%
2003
4,417
-1.60%
2004
4,400
-0.40%
2005
4,390
-0.20%
2006
4,327
-1.40%
2007
4,288
-1.40%
2008
4,159
-2.60%
2009
3,870
-6.80%
2010
3,863
-.18%
2011
3,952
2.3%
2012
4033
2.1%
2013
4,105
1.8%
Michigan Wage and Salary Employment –1989-2014 25 years total, 11 negative years, 10 years in a row: 2001-2010
Source: Michigan Senate
Fiscal Agency,
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 4

5. Year
Michigan
U.S.
1970
100
100
1980
104.3
111.4
1990
104.7
122.4
2000
111.9
138.4
2010
111.3
151.9
Michigan by the numbers: population trends
Source: U.S. Census, Michigan
Senate Fiscal Agency 5

6. Rise and Fall of
Michigan’s Congressional Delegation
1902
1912
1922
1932
1942
1952
1962
1972
1982
1992
2002
2012
19
18
16
15
14
12
13
13
17
17
18
19
Source: Courtesy of Michigan Chamber of Commerce 6

7. 7
75000
80000
85000
90000
95000
100000
105000
110000
115000
120000
125000
Public High School Diplomas Issued
Public + Nonpublic
Data and projections source: “Knocking at the College Door 2012, Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education with support from ACT College Board

8. ◦
All 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives
◦
33 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate contested
◦
36 state governors
◦
46 state legislatures (except Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia)
◦
Numerous state and local races
8

9. 
Governor & Lieutenant Governor

Secretary of State

Attorney General

U.S. Senate

Congress

State Senator

State Representative

Board of State Education

University Regents, Trustees, Governors

County Commissioners

Justice of Supreme Court
(8 year and partial term)

Judges of Courts of Appeals

Judges of Circuit Courts

Judges of Probate Courts

Community College Boards

Local School Boards

Statewide Referendum

Local Millages

Other Local Ballot Issues
9

10. 
Michigan Governor – Republican

Michigan Secretary of State – Republican

Michigan Attorney General – Republican

Michigan U.S. Senate delegation – 2 Democrats

Michigan U.S. House delegation – 9 Republicans, 5 Democrats

Michigan Supreme Court – 5 Republicans, 2 Democrats (full and partial-term seats)

Michigan Senate – 26 Republicans, 12 Democrats

Michigan House – 59 Republicans, 50 Democrats, 1 Independent 10

11. 11
At the Top of the 2014 Ticket

12. 12
Year
Total MI vote
(for all gubernatorial candidates)
Race
2004
4,839,252
President
(Bush/Kerry)
2006
3,801,256
Governor (Granholm/Devos)
2008
5,001,766
President (Obama/McCain)
2010
3,226,088
Governor (Snyder/Bernero)
2012
4,730,961
President (Obama/Romney)
2014
Tuesday,
Nov. 4, 2014
Governor
(Schauer/Snyder)
Source: Michigan Secretary of State

13. 13
Source: Michigan Secretary of State
2004 PRESIDENTIALRace
Bush
2,313,746
47.8%
Kerry
2,479,183
51.2%
Total (cast for major candidates)
4,792,929
2006 GUBERNATORIAL Race
Granholm
2,142,513
56.30%
DeVos
1,608,086
42.30%
Total
3,750,599
2008 PRESIDENTIALRace
Obama
2,872,579
57.30%
McCain
2,048,639
40.90%
Total
4,921,218
2010 GUBERNATORIAL Race
Snyder
1,874,834
58.1%
Bernero
1,287,320
39.9%
Total
3,162,154
2012 PRESIDENTIAL Race
Obama
2,564,569
54.2%
Romney
2,115,256
44.7%
Total
4,679,825

14. 14

15. 
Constitutional Language
◦
Article IV Legislative Branch

Sec 41 Lotteries
15
“The Legislature may authorize lotteries and permit the sale of lottery tickets in the manner provided by law.”
Voted on May 16, 1972 – Began on August 1, 1972
P.A. 239, 1972 Established the State Lottery Fund and earmarked all net funds be deposited in the state’s General Fund.
Myth Buster: Lottery Money was never intended solely for education.

16. 16

17. 17

18. 18
Date
Amendment
Yes
No
Nov 1972
Cut Property Taxes and Increase Income Tax
42%
58%
Nov 1972
Permit Graduated
Income Tax
31%
69%
Nov 1980
Cut Property Taxes and Increase Sales Tax
26%
74%
May 1981
Cut Property Taxes and Increase Sales Tax
28%
72%
1987
Harden/Runkel Commission
----
----
Nov 1989
Cut Property Taxes and Increase Sales Tax
24%
76%
Nov 1989
Increase Sales Tax
From 4% to 4.5%
28%
72%
Nov 1992
Cut & Cap
41%
59%
June 1993
Cut Property Taxes and Increase Sales Tax – Bipartisan
46%
54%
March 1994
Proposal A
69%
31%

19. Date
Amendment
Yes
No
May 1972*
Permit Lottery
73%
27%
Nov 1974
Eliminate Sales Tax
on Food & Drugs
56%
44%
Nov 1976
Permit a Graduated
Income Tax
28%
72%
Nov 1978
Headlee Amendment
52%
48%
Nov 1978
Permit Vouchers
26%
74%
Nov 1992
Term Limits
59%
41%
19

20. 20
▶
Chrysler Bailout
▶
Income Tax Increase (1982)
▶
Income Tax Increase (1983)
▶
House Fiscal Agency Scandal (1993)
▶
Detroit Busing ($7 million)
▶
Bring Your Toothbrush…!

21. 21
Douglas B. Roberts, Ph.D.
Director
Institute for Public Policy & Social Research
College of Social Science
Michigan State University
517-355-6672
Ippsr.msu.edu