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The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016 – Super Tuesday

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GPG analysis of publicly-released polls with an eye toward Super Tuesday

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The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016 – Super Tuesday

  1. 1. Election 2016 – A Brief Overview and Analysis March 1, 2016
  2. 2. G P G P E R S P E C T I V E
  3. 3. PAGE  3 I N S I G HTS A N D E X P E C TATION S • Can Bernie keep it close and cause some problems? • He needs some wins – VT, MA, MN • He needs to grow his vote with African-Americans and Latinos • Can Hillary fix some problems? • She needs to improve with women voters, white voters, and younger voters • Has Marco moved up? • He needs to show he can close the gap with Trump; Cruz and Kasich don’t help • Ted needs Texas • If Cruz can’t carry his home state, what is his path? • Can Trump run the table? • A thumping by Trump could begin to close the deal The GOP nominee Hillary Clintonfearsthe most is MarcoRubio. He is perceivedby manytobe the Republicans’best hope for winningthe White House. But for that to happen,the GOP race needs to quickly become a two-manracebetweenRubioandTrump. The longer Cruz andKasichremaininthe race,the more likely Trumpsolidifies his holdon the GOP nomination. Source: The Glover Park Group
  4. 4. PAGE 4 O N L I NE C O N VER SATI ON S P I K ES C A U SED B Y T H E G O P D E B AT ES Timeframe analyzed: February 21 - 28, 2016 Using Brandwatch 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 21-Feb 22-Feb 23-Feb 24-Feb 25-Feb 26-Feb 27-Feb 28-Feb Donald Trump Ted Cruz Marco Rubio 59%20% 20% Donald Trump Ted Cruz Marco Rubio Share of VoiceDaily Digital Conversation Volume n= 2,193,930 GOP Debates Build-up for GOP Debates
  5. 5. PAGE 5 S P I K E L E E ’ S E N D ORS EME NT O F S A N D ER S, “ W H I CH H I L LA RY” C A M PAIG N A N D C L I N TON’ S W I N I N S O U T H C A R OL INA D R I VE O N L I NE C O N VER SATI ONS Timeframe analyzed: February 21 - 28, 2016 Using Brandwatch 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 21-Feb 22-Feb 23-Feb 24-Feb 25-Feb 26-Feb 27-Feb 28-Feb Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton Spike Lee endorses Sanders #Which Hillary attack campaign flares up Clinton wins South Carolina Primary 49% 51% Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Share of VoiceDaily Digital Conversation Volume n= 894,986
  6. 6. 2 0 1 6 – E L E C T IO N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N CY : R E P U B L I CA N N O M I N A T I ON
  7. 7. PAGE 7 R E P U BL ICA N PAT H T O T H E N O M I NATI ON Phase 1 – Winnowing the Field Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada Phase 2 – Super Tuesday (SEC Primary) 653 Delegates (26% of all delegates) Phase 3 – March 15, Winner-take-all Begins Phase 4 – March 16 – June 7 Final Primary Voting Phase 5 – RNC Convention, July 18 – 21, 2016 Key Dates Date Number of Delegates States March 1 653 AL,AK,AR,CO, GA, MA, MN,OK, TN,TX, VT, VA March 15 367 FL, IL, MO,Northern MarianaIslands,NC,OH April 26 172 CT,DE, MD,PA, RI June 7 331 CA,MT, NJ,NM,SD
  8. 8. PAGE 8 G O P R E S U LTS F R O M T H E F I R S T P H A SE Source: NYTimes.com Candidate % of Votes Ted Cruz 28% DonaldTrump 24% Marco Rubio 23% Ben Carson 9% Rand Paul 5% Jeb Bush 3% Carly Fiorina 2% John Kasich 2% Mike Huckabee 2% Chris Christie 2% Rick Santorum 1% Candidate % of Votes DonaldTrump 35% John Kasich 16% Ted Cruz 12% Jeb Bush 11% Marco Rubio 11% Chris Christie 7% Carly Fiorina 4% Ben Carson 2% Candidate % of Votes DonaldTrump 33% Marco Rubio 23% Ted Cruz 22% Jeb Bush 8% John Kasich 8% Ben Carson 7% Candidate % of Votes DonaldTrump 50% Marco Rubio 24% Ted Cruz 21% John Kasich 5% Ben Carson 4% Iowa Caucus New Hampshire Primary South Carolina Primary Nevada Caucus
  9. 9. PAGE 9 T R U M P I S W I N N I NG T H E D E L E GATE R A C E S O FA R , B U T T H E RE’ S S T I L L A L O N G WAY T O G O The more delegates Cruz or any others win in the SEC primaries on Super Tuesday, the greater the odds that neither Rubio nor Trump will win 1,237 delegates by June, raising the prospect of a contested convention in Cleveland. Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Carson Total 82 18 15 6 4 Iowa Results 7 8 7 1 3 New Hampshire Results 11 3 2 4 0 South Carolina Results 50 0 0 0 0 Nevada Results 14 7 6 1 1 Current Delegate Count Delegates Won 2,472 Delegates to the Convention 168 RNC Members/Automatic Delegates (6.8%) 1,237 Needed to Win 82 18 15 6 4 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 DonaldTrump Ted Cruz Marco Rubio John Kasich Ben Carson Source: NYTimes.com
  10. 10. PAGE 10 T R U M P H A S L E D I N N AT I ONA L P O L L I NG S I N C E S E P T EMBE R Trump has been extremely resilient despite pundits constantly predicting his demise. He’s been at least 35 percent and growing for several months now. Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Feb, 2016 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 7% 6% 5% 6% 6% 8% 13% 18% 17% 11% 8% 6% 9% 10% 15% 10% 17% 5% 15% 31% 28% 28% 34% 39% 43% 10% 8% 14% 17% 21% 14% 8% 9% June July Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2016 Republican Primary Preference Among RepublicanandRepublicanleaning voters Kasich Cruz Rubio Trump Carson
  11. 11. Source: NBC News/Survey Monkey Poll, February 8-14, 2016 PAGE 11 W H E R E D O B U S H S U P P ORT ERS G O N O W ? Not exactly a solid voting bloc, most of these voters are expected to gravitate towards other more moderate candidates such as Rubio or Kasich, although some will go to Trump and Cruz. 19% 16% 12% 11% 9% 23% Marco Rubio John Kasich Ted Cruz Donald Trump Ben Carson Don't know Bush Supporters Second Choice 60% 43% 34% 33% 26% 16% 34% 43% 46% 49% 51% 35% 6% 13% 18% 18% 20% 47% 4% Ted Cruz Ben Carson DonaldTrump Marco Rubio Jeb Bush John Kasich Very conservative Somewhatconservative Moderate Liberal Ideology of Candidate Supporters in South Carolina Source: NY Times/Edison Research South Carolina Exit Polls
  12. 12. 2 0 1 6 – E L E C T IO N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N CY : D E M O C R A T I C N O M I N A T I O N
  13. 13. PAGE 13 D E M O CRAT IC PAT H T O T H E N O M I NAT ION Phase 1 – Winnowing the Field Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina Phase 2 – Early March 1,389 Delegates (29% of all delegates) Phase 3 – Late March 1,113 Delegates (23% of all delegates) Phase 4 – April – June Final Primary Voting Phase 5 – DNC Convention, July 25 – 28, 2016 Key Dates Date Number of Delegates States March 1 865 AL,AmericanSamoa, AR,CO, GA, MA,MN, OK, TN,TX, VT, VA March 15 691 FL, IL, MO,NC,OH April 19 247 NY April 26 384 CT,DE, MD,NE,RI June 7 695 CA,MT, ND,NJ,NM, SD
  14. 14. PAGE 14 R E S U LTS F R O M T H E F I R S T P H A SE Source NY Times Candidate % of Votes Hillary Clinton 49.9% Bernie Sanders 49.6% Martin O’Malley 0.6% Iowa Caucus New Hampshire Primary South Carolina PrimaryNevada Caucus Candidate % of Votes Bernie Sanders 60.4% Hillary Clinton 38.0% Candidate % of Votes Hillary Clinton 52.6% Bernie Sanders 47.3% Candidate % of Votes Hillary Clinton 73.5% Bernie Sanders 26.0%
  15. 15. PAGE 15 S U P P ORT F R O M T H E S U P ERD ELEG ATES G I V ES C L I NTO N A S I G N I FIC ANT L E A D , B U T S H E S T I L L N E E DS A L O T M O R E D E L E GAT ES T O W I N T H E N O M I N ATIO N Source NY Times 91 65 453 20 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Clinton Sanders Delegates Superdelegates Total:544 Total:85 Clinton Sanders Total 91 65 Iowa Results 23 21 New Hampshire Results 9 15 Nevada Results 20 15 South Carolina Results 39 14 Pledged Delegates Won 4,763 Delegates to the Convention 4,051 Pledged delegates 712 Superdelegates 2,382 Needed to Win (50% of total) Current Delegate Count
  16. 16. PAGE 16 A LT H OUG H S A N DE RS H A S N A R R OWED T H E L E A D I N T H E P O L L S, P R E D IC TIO N M A R KE TS S T I L L FAV OR C L I N TON S I G N IF ICA NTLY Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Feb, 2016 12% 17% 18% 24% 25% 30% 31% 34% 39% 60% 58% 54% 47% 45% 55% 56% 55% 51% June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2016 Democratic Primary Preference Among Democrats and Democratic leaningvoters Sanders Clinton Source: PredictWise 97% 3% Clinton Sanders Chancesofbecomingthe Democratic presidential nominee
  17. 17. S U P E R T U E S D A Y
  18. 18. PAGE 18 S U P E R T U E S DAY– W H AT ’S AT S TA K E F O R T H E G O P ? Source: University of Virginia Center for Politics, The Green Papers State Number of Delegates Voter Eligibility Delegate Selection Alabama 50 Open Primary Proportional (20% threshold,50%winner-take-all trigger) Alaska 28 Closed Caucus Proportional (13% threshold) Arkansas 40 Closed Primary Proportional (15% threshold,50%winner-take-all trigger) Colorado 37 Closed Caucus No delegates will be bound by the precinctcaucuses Georgia 76 Open Primary Proportional (20% threshold,50%winner-take-all trigger) Massachusetts 42 ModifiedPrimary Proportional (5%threshold) Minnesota 38 Open Caucus Proportional (10% threshold,85%winner-take-all trigger) Oklahoma 43 Closed Primary Proportional (15% threshold,50%winner-take-all trigger) Tennessee 58 Open Primary Proportional (15% threshold,66.7% winner-take-alltrigger) Texas 155 Open Primary Proportional (20% threshold,50%winner-take-all trigger) Vermont 16 Open Primary Proportional (20% threshold,50%winner-take-all trigger) Virginia 49 Open Primary Proportional (no threshold)
  19. 19. PAGE 19 S U P E R T U E S DAY- S TATE O F T H E R A C E Source: Real Clear Politics polling averages Texas Cruz: 36% Trump:27% Rubio:19% Georgia Trump: 36% Rubio:22% Cruz:21% Oklahoma Trump: 31% Cruz:23% Rubio:21% Alabama Trump: 38% Rubio:20% Carson:15% Virginia Trump: 37% Rubio:22% Cruz:18% Massachusetts Trump: 45% Rubio:18% Kasich:15% Vermont Trump: 32% Rubio:17% Cruz:11% States where Trump is leading States where Cruz is leading States where there isn’t enoughrecent pollingto say who is leading
  20. 20. PAGE 20 S U P E R T U E S DAY– W H AT ’S AT S TA K E F O R T H E D E M O CRAT S? Source: The Cook Political Report, The Green Papers Pledged delegate counts for each state State Number of Delegates Voter Eligibility Delegate Selection Alabama 53 Open Primary Proportional (15% threshold) Arkansas 32 Closed Primary Proportional (15% threshold) Colorado 66 Closed Caucus Proportional (15% threshold) Georgia 102 Open Primary Proportional (15% threshold) Massachusetts 91 ModifiedPrimary Proportional (15% threshold) Minnesota 77 Open Caucus Proportional (15% threshold) Oklahoma 38 Closed Primary Proportional (15% threshold) Tennessee 67 Open Primary Proportional (15% threshold) Texas 222 Closed Primary Proportional (15% threshold) Vermont 16 Open Primary Proportional (15% threshold) Virginia 65 Open Primary Proportional (15% threshold)
  21. 21. PAGE 21 C L I N TON I S P O L L I NG B E T T ER I N A L M O ST E V E R Y S U P ER T U E S DAY S TATE TX Clinton: 61% Sanders: 33% GA Clinton: 63% Sanders: 28% MA Clinton: 47% Sanders: 45% VA Clinton: 55% Sanders: 36% TN Clinton: 59% Sanders: 33% AL Clinton: 65% Sanders: 27% OK Clinton: 44% Sanders: 40% AR Clinton: 57% Sanders: 29% VT Sanders: 85% Clinton: 10%States where Sanders is leading States where Clinton is leading Source: Real Clear Politics polling averages States where there isn’t enoughrecent pollingto say who is leading
  22. 22. Source: FiveThirtyEight.com, Washington Post PAGE 22 S U P E R T U E S DAY P R E DI CTI ONS Democrats ¨ Clinton will likely pick up a majority of delegates from the southern states. ¨ Oklahoma may be Sanders’ best chance at an upset because it is semi-Midwestern. ¨ Sanders will win Vermont by a big margin. ¨ Close races in Minnesota, Colorado, and Massachusetts; Sanders will need to win these to keep nomination hopes alive. ¨ If Clinton wins in all the states she’s projected to, it makes the path to a Sanders nomination very difficult. Republicans ¨ A big test for Rubio, where he will need to meet tough viability thresholds in southern states like Texas and Georgia, as well as show strength among more moderate Republican voters in blue states like Massachusetts and Vermont. ¨ Texas is a must-win for Cruz. Cruz could take all 155 delegates with majority wins across the state and its congressional districts. But a close win could sap his momentum, and a loss would likely end the Cruz run. ¨ Except for Texas, expectations for Trump are high across Super Tuesday states. A near sweep by Trump will mean that all of his opponents will have lost to him in more than a dozen contests, and may find it harder to dodge the label “loser.”
  23. 23. P O S T - S U P E R T U E S D A Y
  24. 24. PAGE 24 W H AT ’S N E X T F O R R E P UB LIC ANS? The single most critical day of the Republican race overall will be on March 15th, when four large states (Florida, Ohio, Illinois, and Missouri) will award a total of 292 delegates. 65% of GOP delegates will have been awarded by the end of March. The rules governing the national convention require a candidate to have won a majority of delegates in eight states or territories to be eligible for the nomination – so at some point, a non-Trump candidate has to start finishing in first place. Florida, Ohio and Arizona are winner-take-all contests and may be anybody’s best shot to stem Trump’s momentum. State Date Delegates Florida March 15 99 Ohio March 15 66 Arizona March 22 58 Total --- 223
  25. 25. PAGE 25 W H AT ’S N E X T F O R D E M OCR ATS? March 15th is not only a big day for Republicans. The Democrats have 691 delegates up for grabs that day. However, there are no “winner-takes-all” states like the Republicans have. This means that the states assign delegates proportionally. Even if Clinton wins all the states she’s projected to win on Super Tuesday, Sanders still has a shot at the nomination. Although March 1st is very southern-heavy, the Sanders’ campaign is looking forward to states like Michigan, Ohio, and Missouri that have large populations and the possibility of more support. State Date Delegates Michigan March 8 148 Ohio March 15 159 Missouri March 15 84 Total --- 391
  26. 26. PAGE 26 I M P O RTAN T P O S T S U P ER T U E SDAY D AT ES ( D E B AT ES/ PRI MARI ES/ CAUC USES ) Upcoming Debate Schedule Date Republican Democrat March 3rd ✔ March 6th ✔ March 9th ✔ March 10th ✔ Primaries/Caucuses in March Date Republican Democrat March 5th KS, KY, LA, ME KS, LA, NE March 6th PR ME March 8th HI, ID, MI, MS MI, MS March 10th VI March 12th GU, DC MP March 15th FL, IL, MO, NC, MP, OH FL, IL, MO, NC, OH March 22nd AS, AZ, UT AZ, ID, UT March 26th AK, HI, WA Big day for delegates: 691 delegates for Democrats and 367 delegatesfor Republicans.
  27. 27. Source: Donald Trump image: By Michael Vadon - https://www.flickr.com/photos/80038275@N00/20724666936/, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=45369889; Hillary Clinton image: By Hillary for Iowa - https://www.flickr.com/photos/hillaryforiowa/17135176916/, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=40759881; Bernie Sanders image: Gage Skidmore [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons PAGE 27 P L U R AL ITY O F V O T E RS D R E A D WAT C HING T R U MP O N T E L E V ISI ON F O R T H E N E X T F O U R Y E A RS I F E L E C TE D 40% 31% 12% Whoever is elected president will be on television constantly for at least four years. Thinking about ALL of the candidates currently running for president, which ONE would you MOST DREAD watching on television for four years?
  28. 28. 1025 F Street NW, 9th Floor Washington, DC 20004 121 East 24th Street, 10th Floor New York, NY 10010 202.337.0808 | GPG.COM GPG Research The Glover Park Group is a leading strategic communications and government affairs firm. GPG offers an integrated and complementary suite of services to plan, build and execute all manner of communications tactics, campaigns and programs. Our in-house research team is a data and insight-driven outfit. We employ cutting-edge research methodologies, from digital analytics to quantitative and qualitative opinion research, to help our clients understand where the conversation begins and, more importantly, how we can influence it. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Jason Boxt (jboxt@gpg.com)

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