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![Linda H. Stephens - D
1st Term (Wake)
Phil Berger, Jr.
Orange - REP
Bob Hunter - R
1st Term [2014] (Guilford)
Abe Jones
Wake – DEM
Richard Dietz - R
1st Term (Forsyth)
Vince Rozier
Wake – DEM
Valerie Zachary - R
1st Term [2015] (Yadkin)
Rickye McKoy-Mitchell
Mecklenburg – DEM
2016 Election: Court of Appeals](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/primaryelectionbriefingpresentation-160105212238/85/Primary-election-briefing-presentation-47-320.jpg)
Uploaded byNorth Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation
Primary election briefing presentation
This document provides an overview and analysis of North Carolina's 2014 election results and insights into the state's 2016 primary and general elections. It summarizes voter trends in urban and rural areas, highlights key congressional and state legislative races, and examines factors like generation gaps and population shifts that could impact upcoming elections. Non-partisan group NCFEF conducted the research to impartially analyze NC's political landscape.
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Primary election briefing presentation
- 1. 2014 Election Updates& Insights 2016 Primary Election Briefing January 5, 2016 www.ncfef.org @ncfef NCFEF
- 2. 2014 Election Updates& Insights NCFEF is a non-partisan, nonprofit organization that conducts impartial, objective research and analysis on candidates, campaigns, voter attitudes and demographic changes that impact North Carolina’s political landscape. Joe Stewart Executive Director jstewart@ncfef.org (919) 614-0520 www.ncfef.org @ncfef NCFEF
- 3. 2014 Election Updates& Insights Visit www.ncfef.org 2016 Almanac NCFEF Almanac app Events Reports www.ncfef.org @ncfef NCFEF
- 4. What is the2016 election ‘about’ … ? fear … anxiety … anger
- 5. Esquire’s survey onAmerican Rage
- 6. Esquire’s survey onAmerican Rage
- 7. Surfing Theory ofPolitics
- 8. Key factors inNorth Carolina 2016 elections Sen Richard Burr
- 9. 2015 NCFEF ConventionalVoting Behavior (CVB) CVB = voters partisan disposition based on statewide races 2008 - 2014. This is the voter party-preference topographical map of NC Suburbs full of ‘swingers’ Other factors: age (esp. Millennials), ethnicity, gender, nativity
- 10. Past Election Results@ DMA (courtesy of Glen Bolger, POS) Charlotte (26%) GOP Dem Other 52% 43% 4% 53% 45% 2% 62% 36% 2% 58% 40% 2% 52% 47% 1% 47% 49% 4% Other (24%) GOP Dem Other 51% 44% 4% 54% 45% 1% 55% 43% 2% 57% 41% 2% 46% 53% 1% 46% 51% 3% Triangle (32%) GOP Dem Other 2014 Sen: 42% 55% 3% 2012 Pres: 43% 56% 1% 2012 Gov: 46% 51% 3% 2010 Sen: 47% 51% 2% 2008 Pres: 42% 57% 1% 2008 Sen: 39% 58% 3% Triad (18%) GOP Dem Other 53% 43% 4% 54% 45% 1% 58% 40% 2% 60% 38% 2% 52% 47% 1% 46% 51% 3%
- 11. Urbanization and PartisanVoting Performance MEC K WAK E 2012 Obama 60.8% 54.5% Romney 38.3% 44.2% 2000 Gore 48.2% 46.0% Bush 51.0% 53.1% 1988 Dukakis 40.2% 42.8% Bush 59.4% 56.9% Year NC Population Growth 2010 9,535,475 2014 9,943,964 +408,489 MECK WAKE 2010 919,628 900,993 2014 1,012,539 998,691 GAIN +92,911 +97,698
- 12. North Carolina Statewide Margin Wake County Margin Mecklenburg County Margin 2000 GOP +373,471 GOP +19,028 GOP +7,157 2004 GOP +435,317 GOP +7415 DEM +11,744 2008 DEM +14,177 DEM +64,623 DEM +99,685 2012 GOP +97,465 DEM +54,006 DEM +100,215 2014 Senate GOP +45,608 DEM +43,797 DEM +55,971 Wide Democraticmargins in Wake & Mecklenburg counties have moved North Carolina into the “swing” column.
- 13. NC Count iesw it h Populat ion Loss, 2010-2014 NC Population Growth Not Even 49 NC counties have lost population since 2010 (2014 Census Bureau Data)
- 14. Estimated NC VoterReg by Generation 2% 4% 8% 10% 16% 18% 24% 26% 27% 22% 23% 25% 25% 26% 26% 25% 25% 27% 45% 43% 41% 40% 36% 35% 33% 32% 33% 31% 29% 26% 25% 22% 21% 18% 17% 13% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Oct-15 Millennials Generation X Baby Boomer Silent Dr. Michael Bitzer Catawba College
- 16. North Carolina 2016Election Dynamics President, US Sen, Gov on ballot in ‘battleground’ state = a LOT of political ads (candidates + outside groups) = high turnout? Turnout: 2000: 59% *2004: 64% *2008: 70% 2012: 68% Probable election landscape = Urban v. Rural, Suburbs in play Watch for ‘enthusiasm gap’ = one party’s base party voters dislike their party’s candidate(s) more than the other party’s base voters. Watch for GOP v GOP Primaries (Establishment v Tea Party) March 15, 2016 Primary
- 17. North Carolina 2016Primary Dynamics March 15, 2016 Primary Candidate Filing in Dec 1 – 21 $2 Billion Bond Package on Ballot What’s the voter turnout profile?
- 18. North Carolina 2016Primary Dynamics March 15, 2016 Primary Candidate Filing in Dec 1 – 21 $2 Billion Bond Package on Ballot What’s the voter turnout profile?
- 19. NC 2016 ElectionDynamics: US Senate Paul Wright Larry Holmquist Sen Richard Burr Greg Brannon Chris Rey Deborah Ross Kevin Griffin Ernest T. Reeves Sean Haugh
- 20. CVB for USCONGRESS 10 REP – 3 DEM STRONG DEM (3) LEAN REP (3) STRONG REP (7) 12 Adams* Guilford 3 Jones Pitt 13 Holding Wake 10 McHenry Gaston 1 Butterfield Wilson 8 Hudson Cabarrus 2 Ellmers Harnett 5 Foxx Watauga 4 Price Orange 7 Rouzer* Johnston 6 Walker* Guilford 11 Meadows Macon *freshman 9 Pittenger Mecklenburg
- 21. CONG DIST CVBCANDIDATES NC - 1 SD G. K. Butterfield – (I) C. L. Cooke NC - 2 SR Renee Ellmers – (I) Jim Duncan Kay Dale Frank Roche Tim D'Annunzio Adam Coker NC - 3 LR Walter B. Jones – (I) Phil Law Taylor Griffin David Hurst NC - 4 SD David Price – (I) Teiji Kimball Sue Googe NC - 5 SR Virginia Foxx – (I) Pattie Curran Josh Brannon
- 22. CONG DIST CVBCANDIDATES NC - 6 SR B. Mark Walker – (I) Chris Hardin Jim Roberts Pete Glidewell Bruce Davis NC - 7 LR David Rouzer – (I) Mark D. Otto J. Wesley Casteen NC - 8 LR Richard Hudson – (I) Thomas Mills NC - 9 SR Robert Pittenger – (I) George Rouco Christian Cano NC - 10 SR Patrick McHenry – (I) Albert L. Wiley, Jr. Jeffery Gregory Andy Millard
- 23. CONG DIST CVBCANDIDATES NC - 11 SR Mark Meadows – (I) Tom Hill Rick Bryson NC - 12 SD Alma Adams – (I) Gardenia Henley Juan Antonio Marin, Jr. Leon Threatt Ryan Duffie NC - 13 SR George Holding – (I) John P. McNeil Ron Sanyal
- 24. STRONG DEM (34)LEAN DEM (2) LEAN REP (14) STRONG REP (59) 29 L. Hall Durham 114 Fisher Buncombe 54 Reives Lee 118 Presnell Yancey 55 Brody Union 86 Blackwell Burke 110 Hastings Gaston 96 Adams* Catawba 106 Cunningham Mecklenburg 42 Lucas Cumberland 44 Richardson** Cumberland 49 Pendleton* Wake 14 Cleveland Onslow 82 Pittman Cabarrus 77 Warren Rowan 69 Arp Union 102 Carney Mecklenburg 5 Hunter Hertford COMP (11) 9 Murphy** Pitt 36 Dollar Wake 15 Shepard Onslow 98 Bradford* Mecklenburg 13 McElraft Carteret 31 Michaux Durham 32 Baskerville (NR) Vance 66 Goodman Richmond 45 Szoka Cumberland 40 Avila Wake 109 Bumgardner Gaston 91 Hall** Stokes 81 Brown (NR) Davidson 33 Gill Wake 72 Hanes Forsyth 39 Jackson Wake 63 Ross Alamance 37 Stam (NR) Wake 26 Daughtry (NR) Johnston 74 Conrad Forsyth 87 Robinson Caldwell 99 Moore Mecklenburg 100 Cotham (NR) Mecklenburg 50 Meyer Orange 53 Lewis Harnett 62 Blust Guilford 16 Millis Pender 104 Bishop (NR) Mecklenburg 76 Ford Rowan 38 Lewis Holley Wake 23 Willingham* Edgecombe 119 Queen Haywood 93 Jordan Ashe 111 Moore Cleveland 83 Johnson Cabarrus 10 J. Bell Wayne 95 Fraley Iredell 60 Brockman* Guilford 47 Graham Robeson 2 Yarborough* Person 1 Steinburg Chowan 75 Lambeth Forsyth 19 Davis New Hanover 84 R. Turner Iredell 89 Setzer Catawba 58 Johnson* Guilford 30 Luebke Durham 22 Brisson# Bladen 65 Jones Rockingham 88 Bryan Mecklenburg 4 Dixon Duplin 17 Iler Brunswick 68 Horn Union 107 Alexander Mecklenburg 43 Floyd Cumberland 92 Jeter Mecklenburg 3 Speciale Craven 25 Collins Nash 59 Hardister Guilford 108 Torbett Gaston 94 Elmore Wilkes 56 Insko Orange 21 L. Bell Sampson 115 Ager* Buncombe 51 Salmon* Harnett 103 Brawley Mecklenburg 61 Faircloth Guilford 105 Schaffer (NR) Mecklenburg 79 Howard Davie 24 Farmer- Butterfield Wilson 7 Richardson Franklin 6 Tine (NR) Dare 64 Riddell Alamance 20 Catlin (NR) New Hanover 52 Boles Moore 97 Saine Lincoln 48 Pierce Scotland 18 Hamilton New Hanover 8 S. Martin Wilson 116 B. Turner* Buncombe 112 Hager Rutherford 117 McGrady Henderson 85 Dobson McDowell 71 Terry Forsyth 34 G. Martin Wake 41 Adcock* Wake 35 Malone Wake 113 Whitmire (NR) Transylvania 120 West (NR) Cherokee 73 Zachary* Yadkin 57 Harrison Guilford 12 Graham Lenoir 28 Langdon (NR) Johnston 80 Watford Davidson 27 Wray Northampton 11 D. Hall Wake *freshman **appointed NR = not running in 2016 90 Stevens Surry 70 Hurley Randolph 101 Earle Mecklenburg 46 Waddell (NR) Columbus 67 Burr Stanly 78 McNeill Randolph CVB for NC HOUSE 74 REP – 45 DEM – 1 UNA
- 25. NC HOUSE 74REP – 45 DEM – 1 UNA 22 HOUSE REPUBLICAN WINNERS DISTRICT CVB INCUMBENT 2015 LBR HD 004 SR Jimmy Dixon 90.0 HD 014 SR George G. Cleveland 75.0 HD 019 SR Ted Davis, Jr. 90.0 HD 061 SR John Faircloth 90.0 HD 062 SR John M. Blust 79.2 HD 063 LR Stephen Ross 92.5 HD 064 LR Dennis Riddell 90.0 HD 068 SR Craig Horn 85.5 HD 075 SR Donny C Lambeth 90.0 HD 076 SR Carl Ford 76.7 HD 079 SR Julia Craven Howard 80.9 HD 080 SR Sam Watford 90.0 HD 085 SR Josh Dobson 95.0 HD 089 SR Mitchell Setzer 77.5 HD 096 SR Jay Adams 85.8 HD 097 SR Jason R. Saine 90.5 HD 098 SR John R. Bradford III 90.0 HD 108 SR John A. Torbett 95.0 HD 110 SR Kelly Hastings 90.0 HD 111 SR Tim Moore 95.0 HD 112 SR Mike Hager 95.0 HD 117 SR Chuck McGrady 80.8
- 26. NC HOUSE 74REP – 45 DEM – 1 UNA 19 HOUSE DEMOCRAT WINNERS DISTRICT CVB CANDIDATE 2015 LBR HD 005 SD Howard J. Hunter III 43.2 HD 012 SD George Graham 67.5 HD 023 SD Shelly Willingham 31.1 HD 029 SD Larry D. Hall 24.1 HD 031 SD Mickey Michaux, Jr. 35.8 HD 039 SD Darren Jackson 59.2 HD 042 SD Marvin W. Lucas 73.0 HD 043 SD Elmer Floyd 66.7 HD 048 SD Garland E. Pierce 49.2 HD 056 SD Verla Insko 19.1 HD 057 SD Pricey Harrison 12.0 HD 060 SD Cecil Brockman 67.5 HD 066 SD Ken Goodman 92.5 HD 071 SD Evelyn Terry 38.2 HD 072 SD Ed Hanes Jr. 80.9 HD 099 SD Rodney W. Moore 80.0 HD 102 SD Becky Carney 63.3 HD 106 SD Carla Cunningham 47.3 HD 114 SD Susan C. Fisher 14.5
- 27. HOUSE INCUMBENTS FACINGA GENERAL ONLY COMP & LEAN CVB RATINGS - 9 REP & 7 DEM DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INCUMBENT 2015 LBR HD 002 COMP -1,605 Larry Yarborough 85 HD 008 COMP 1,861 Susan Martin 90 HD 041 COMP 15,176 Gale Adcock 54.2 HD 115 COMP 3,778 John Ager 50 HD 119 COMP 1,119 Joe Sam Queen 48.3 HD 044 LD 1,998 Billy Richardson 50 HD 054 LD 5,531 Robert T. Reives II 50 HD 001 LR 768 Bob Steinburg 92.5 HD 003 LR 368 Michael Speciale 71.7 HD 035 LR 14,184 Chris Malone 69.2 HD 045 LR 2,902 John Szoka 90 HD 049 LR 2,346 Gary Pendleton 66.8 HD 065 LR -2,516 Bert Jones 85.8 HD 118 LR 508 Michele D. Presnell 85.8 HD 051 LR 5,706 Brad Salmon 76.7 HD 116 LR 5,296 Brian Turner 63.3
- 28. HOUSE INCUMBENTS GENERALONLY – STRONG REP CVB RATING 18 REPUBLICANS DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INCUMBENT 2015 LBR HD 013 SR 2,265 Pat McElraft 95.0 HD 010 SR 8,137 John R. Bell 92.5 HD 015 SR 811 Phillip Shepard 90.0 HD 016 SR 7,204 Chris W. Millis 81.7 HD 025 SR 830 Jeff Collins 85.5 HD 040 SR 13,125 Marilyn Avila 73.9 HD 055 SR 683 Mark Brody 85.8 HD 059 SR 5,676 Jon Hardister 81.7 HD 069 SR 6,387 Dean Arp 90.8 HD 070 SR 605 Pat B. Hurley 85.8 HD 074 SR 1,963 Debra Conrad 85.8 HD 078 SR 611 Allen McNeill 85.8 HD 086 SR -161 Hugh Blackwell 85.5 HD 088 SR 1,353 Rob Bryan 92.5 HD 090 SR -737 Sarah Stevens 90.0 HD 094 SR -729 Jeffrey Elmore 85.0 HD 103 SR 6,714 Bill Brawley 90.5 HD 109 SR 1,476 Dana Bumgardner 77.5
- 29. HOUSE INCUMBENTS FACINGA GENERAL ONLY – STRONG DEM CVD RATING 7 DEMOCRATS DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INCUMBENT 2015 LBR HD 007 SD -72 Bobbie J. Richardson 44.2 HD 011 SD 5,646 Duane Hall 54.2 HD 018 SD 4,737 Susi Hamilton 68.9 HD 030 SD 11,548 Paul Luebke 11.3 HD 034 SD 2,625 Grier Martin 29.1 HD 038 SD 9,300 Yvonne Lewis Holley 35.8 HD 050 SD 6,127 Graig R. Meyer 51.8
- 30. 9 HOUSE DEMOCRATINCUMBENTS FACING A PRIMARY DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INCUMBENT GENERAL ALSO 2015 LBR HD 021 SD -8 Larry M. Bell NO 62.5 HD 022 COMP 176 William Brisson NO 90.0 HD 024 SD 1,765 Jean Farmer-Butterfield NO 42.7 HD 027 SD -3,357 Michael H. Wray NO 80.0 HD 033 SD 8,249 Rosa U Gill NO 45.0 HD 047 SD 509 Charles Graham NO 55.8 HD 058 SD 1,995 Ralph C. Johnson NO 52.3 HD 101 SD 10,098 Beverly Miller Earle YES 45.0 HD 107 SD 8,900 Kelly Alexander NO 58.3
- 31. 14 HOUSE REPUBLICANINCUMBENTS FACING A PRIMARY DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INCUMBENT GENERAL ALSO 2015 LBR HD 017 SR 7,812 Frank Iler YES 90.0 HD 036 SR 6,399 Nelson Dollar YES 85.8 HD 052 SR 4,640 Jamie Boles NO 90.0 HD 053 LR 7,740 David R. Lewis YES 90.5 HD 067 SR -472 Justin P. Burr YES 81.7 HD 073 SR -437 Lee Zachary NO 95.0 HD 077 SR 140 Harry Warren NO 81.7 HD 082 SR 9,031 Larry G. Pittman YES 69.2 HD 083 SR 4,343 Linda P. Johnson YES 90.0 HD 084 SR 1,890 Rena W. Turner YES 90.0 HD 087 SR -1,545 George S. Robinson NO 87.5 HD 092 COMP 15,160 Charles Jeter YES 86.7 HD 093 LR 1,326 Jonathan C. Jordan YES 81.7 HD 095 SR 5,348 John A. Fraley NO 95.0
- 32. OPEN SEAT RACES– NC HOUSE DISTRICT CVB POP +/- LBR OF INC CANDIDATES HD 006 TINE (U) COMP 238 90.0 Judy Justice Warren Judge Arthur Williams Ashley Woolard Beverly Boswell HD 020 CATLIN (R) SR 6,747 78.9 Holly Grange Tammy Covil HD 026 DAUGHTRY (R) SR 8,091 95.0 Dennis Nielsen Donna McDowell White Rich Nixon HD 028 LANGDON (R) SR 4,368 85.8 Jimmie M. Massengill Patricia Oliver Gregory A. Dail Larry C. Strickland Tony Braswell HD 032 B’VILLE (D) SD -1,692 40.8 Gary Lamont Miles Sr Terri H. Campbell Terry Garrison
- 33. OPEN SEAT RACES– NC HOUSE DISTRICT CVB POP +/- LBR OF INC CANDIDATES HD 37 STAM (R) SR 12,046 85.8 Linda Hunt-Williams Jonathan Graham HD 46 WADDELL (D) SD -1,093 85.0 Brenden Jones Tim Benton Thomas (Tom) Howell Jr HD 81 R. BROWN (R) SR 663 80.0 Larry W. Potts Sharon Phillips Pearce Tyler Lohr Forrest HD 100 COTHAM (D) SD 1,692 59.3 Billy Maddalon John Autry HD 104 BISHOP (R) SR 1,417 85.0 Andy Dulin Peter Noris HD 105 SR 12,855 85.0 Scott Stone Tim Morgan
- 34. OPEN SEAT RACES– NC HOUSE DISTRICT CVB POP +/- LBR OF INC CANDIDATES HD 113 WHITMIRE (R) SR 757 90.0 Cody Henson Coty James Ferguson Maureen Mahan Copelof HD 120 WEST (R) SR -573 95.0 Elliott J. Southworth Kevin Corbin *HD 9 B. BROWN (R) LR 3,747 90.0 Brian Farkas Walter E. Gaskins Greg Murphy* *HD 91 H’WAY (R) SR 1,050 85.8 Ira (Bubba) Tilley Kyle Hall* Robert Knight
- 35. CVB for NCSENATE 34 REP – 16 DEM STRONG DEM (16) COMPETITIVE (4) LEAN REP (6) STRONG REP (24) 28 Robinson Guilford 21 Clark Hoke 19 Meredith Cumberland 8 Rabon Brunswick 50 Davis Macon 24 Gunn Alamance 39 Rucho (NR) Mecklenburg 40 Waddell* Mecklenburg 5 Davis Greene 1 Cook Beaufort 9 Lee* New Hanover 46 Daniel Burke 47 Hise Mitchell 31 Krawiec Forsyth 38 Ford Mecklenburg 13 Smith* Robeson 25 McInnis* Richmond 15 Alexander* Wake 27 Wade Guilford 2 Sanderson Pamlico 44 Curtis Lincoln 14 Blue Wake 23 Foushee Orange 18 Barefoot Wake 10 B. Jackson Sampson 11 Newton (NR) Wilson 45 Soucek (NR) Watauga 35 Tucker Union 20 McKissick Durham 22 Woodard Durham 12 Rabin Harnett 6 Brown Onslow 48 Apodaca (NR) Henderson 42 Wells* Catawba 4 Bryant Nash 37 J. Jackson Mecklenburg 17 Barringer Wake 41 Tarte Mecklenburg 36 Hartsell (NR) Cabarrus 33 Bingham (NR) Davidson 3 Smith- Ingram* Edgecombe 16 Stein (NR) Wake 26 Berger Rockingham 43 Harrington Gaston 30 Randleman Wilkes 32 Lowe* Forsyth 49 Van Duyn* Buncombe *freshman NR = not running in 2016 7 Pate Wayne 34 Brock Davie 29 Tillman Randolph
- 36. 9 SENATE REPUBLICANWINNERS DISTRICT CVB CANDIDATE 2015 LBR SD 06 SR Harry Brown 95.0 SD 07 SR Louis M. Pate Jr. 95.0 SD 08 LR Bill Rabon 85.9 SD 10 LR Brent Jackson 95.0 SD 26 SR Phil Berger 95.0 SD 29 SR Jerry W. Tillman 90.0 SD 34 SR Andrew C Brock 85.8 SD 42 SR Andy Wells 90.0 SD 43 SR Kathy Harrington 90.0 4 SENATE DEMOCRAT WINNERS DISTRICT CVB CANDIDATE 2015 LBR SD 03 SD Erica Smith-Ingram 47.8 SD 05 SD Don Davis 48.3 SD 14 SD Dan Blue 55.0 SD 32 SD Paul Lowe Jr. 45.0 NC SENATE 34 REP – 16 DEM
- 37. 16 SENATE REPUBLICANINCUMBENTS FACING A GENERAL ONLY DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INCUMBENT 2015 LBR SD 01 COMP 1,165 Bill Cook 80.0 SD 02 SR 3,151 Norman Sanderson 90.0 SD 09 LR 13,579 Michael Lee 90.0 SD 12 LR 15,450 Ronald Rabin 90.0 SD 15 LR 16,411 John Alexander 65.0 SD 17 LR 27,427 Tamara Barringer 80.0 SD 18 COMP 16,934 Chad Barefoot 90.0 SD 19 COMP 5,560 Wesley Meredith 78.9 SD 24 SR 4,950 Rick Gunn 95.0 SD 25 COMP -2,603 Tom McInnis 90.0 SD 27 SR 9,258 Trudy Wade 90.0 SD 30 SR -2,189 Shirley Randleman 90.0 SD 41 SR 28,598 Jeff Tarte 90.0 SD 46 SR -2,428 Warren Daniel 80.5 SD 47 SR -1,473 Ralph Hise 85.8 SD 50 SR 865 Jim Davis 87.5
- 38. 7 SENATE DEMOCRATINCUMBENTS FACING A GENERAL ONLY DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INCUMBENT 2015 LBR SD 13 SD -553 Jane W. Smith 54.2 SD 20 SD 9,597 Floyd B. McKissick, Jr. 32.5 SD 22 SD 14,891 Mike Woodard 52.3 SD 23 SD 11,812 Valerie P. Foushee 37.2 SD 28 SD 7,432 Gladys A. Robinson 28.6 SD 37 SD 15,790 Jeff Jackson 38.2 SD 49 SD 8,910 Terry Van Duyn 45.0
- 39. 3 SENATE REPUBLICANINCUMBENTS FACING A PRIMARY DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INCUMBENT GENERAL ALSO 2015 LBR SD 31 SR 5,819 Joyce Krawiec NO 85.8 SD 35 SR 16,584 Tommy Tucker NO 90.8 SD 44 SR 8,165 David L. Curtis YES 90.0 4 SENATE DEMOCRATS FACING A PRIMARY SD 04 SD -3,495 Angela R. Bryant YES 45.0 SD 21 SD 5,996 Ben Clark YES 77.5 SD 38 SD 22,663 Joel Ford YES 70.0 SD 40 SD 12,219 Joyce Waddell YES 35.8
- 40. OPEN SEAT RACES– NC SENATE DISTRICT CVB POP +/- LBR OF INC CANDIDATES SD 11 NEWTON (R) SR 4,638 79.4 Benton Sawrey Rick Horner Albert Pacer SD 16 STEIN (D) SD 17,905 40.0 Jay Chaudhuri Ellis Hankins Eric Weaver SD 33 BINGHAM (R) SR 791 85.8 Cathy Dunn Joe D. Kennedy Eddie Gallimore Jim Beall Graham SD 36 HARTSELL (R) SR 14,784 85.5 Andrew W. Platek Robert Brown Amy Blake Parish Moffitt Paul R. Newton Scott C. Aumuller
- 41. OPEN SEAT RACES– NC SENATE DISTRICT CVB POP +/- LBR OF INC CANDIDATES SD 39 RUCHO (R) SR 13,641 83.0 Lloyd Scher Dan Bishop SD 45 SOUCEK (R) SR -519 85.0 Deanna Ballard Ken Boham Art Sherwood SD 48 APODACA (R) SR 7,675 95.0 Chuck Edwards Dennis Justice Lisa Carpenter Baldwin Norman Bossert
- 42. Partisan Composition &CVB NC General Assembly & Congressional Delegation Strong REP Lean REP COMP Lean DEM Strong DEM NC House 74 – 45 – 1 59 14 11 2 34 NC Senate 34 – 16 24 6 4 0 16 US Congress 10 – 3 7 3 0 0 3
- 43. NC CVB= 0, so statewide races generally tend to be competitive Suburbs = battleground 2016 = $100+ million in outside spending Gets ugly quick, stays ugly NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Governor
- 44. NC 2016 ElectionDynamics: Governor Cooper Victory Strong US Senate Candidate Presidential Candidate Fights for NC Functioning NC Dem Party McCrory Victory Voters Positive on NC Economy Parity in Outside $ Enthusiasm for Presidental Candidate
- 45. NC 2016 ElectionDynamics: Exec Branch GOV Roy Cooper $3M Ken Spaulding $50K Lon Cecil Pat McCrory 56.62% $2.4M Robert Brawley C. K. Moss LTGOV Linda Coleman $48K Holly Jones Robert Wilson $6K Ron Newton JJ Summerell Dan Forest 50.08% ($247K) AG OPEN Sen. Josh Stein $1.1M Marcus W. Williams Sen. Buck Newton $200K Jim O’Neill $94K INS Wayne Goodwin 51.9% $360K Mike Causey Ron Pierce Joe McLaughlin AUD Beth Wood 53.71% $27K Chuck Stuber SOS Elaine Marshall 53.79% $35K AJ Daoud Michael LaPaglia LAB Charles Meeker $15K Cherie Berry 53.26% $15K AGR Walter Smith Steve Troxler 53.22% $7K Andy Stevens SPI June Atkinson 54.24% $9K Henry J. Pankey Mark Johnson $105K Rosemary Stein J.Wesley Sills ST OPE) Ron Elmer Dan Blue III Dale Folwell %=2012results($)=cashonhandasofJune30,2015
- 46. 2016 Election: StateSupreme Court Voters will cast their ballot to to determine whether to retain Justice Robert H. Edmunds (Guilford)
- 47. Linda H. Stephens- D 1st Term (Wake) Phil Berger, Jr. Orange - REP Bob Hunter - R 1st Term [2014] (Guilford) Abe Jones Wake – DEM Richard Dietz - R 1st Term (Forsyth) Vince Rozier Wake – DEM Valerie Zachary - R 1st Term [2015] (Yadkin) Rickye McKoy-Mitchell Mecklenburg – DEM 2016 Election: Court of Appeals
- 48. 2014 Election Updates& Insights Questions? Joe Stewart Executive Director jstewart@ncfef.org (919) 614-0520 www.ncfef.org @ncfef NCFEF
Editor's Notes
- #10 CVB shown in Voting Tabulation Districts (VTD) … this is the jurisdictional unit Census data is given in for the state’s redistricting efforts – VTDs all have same number of people in them (thus VTDs in populationally dense areas are smaller geographically) is the building block of a precinct. Blue – Red shows greater intensity of partisan voting performance (candidates of a party did even better within a VTD than they did on a statewide basis) … dark Blue/Red = 6%+ above statewide, light Blue/Red = 3 – 6%, tan = 3% either way. Not a predictor of outcomes, but strong indication of which party’s candidates have a conventional advantage (i.e., unconventional factors, like the candidate’s shortcoming, operational ineptitude of their campaign, lack of resources to communicate with voters, local issues, outside money, etc., all have potential to impact outcome). Key points = urban areas go Dem , rural areas go Rep, some remnants of eastern NC traditional Dems. Point to make: some areas are just monolithic in their partisan disposition.
- #17 Key factors to watch in 2016 election … March presidential primary may result in lower turnout in May primary. Three key factors – overall, NC is a COMP CVB rating, $100 - $250 million estimated to be spent in NC by outside groups, suburban parts of the state home to unaffiliated, independent-minded voters candidates need to win
- #18 Key factors to watch in 2016 election … March presidential primary may result in lower turnout in May primary. Three key factors – overall, NC is a COMP CVB rating, $100 - $250 million estimated to be spent in NC by outside groups, suburban parts of the state home to unaffiliated, independent-minded voters candidates need to win
- #19 Key factors to watch in 2016 election … March presidential primary may result in lower turnout in May primary. Three key factors – overall, NC is a COMP CVB rating, $100 - $250 million estimated to be spent in NC by outside groups, suburban parts of the state home to unaffiliated, independent-minded voters candidates need to win
- #21 Given the partisan disposition of the current districts, any change in the partisan control on an NC Congressional district in 2016 is very unlikely, although Ellmers and Jones both have announced primary opponents.
- #25 Continued Republican control of state House very likely after 2016 Election … if Democrats won every single GOP-held COMP district, would still only have 48 seats … would have to hold all current DEM-held seats + win all 12 GOP-held LEAN REP seats plus one STRONG REP seat to win simple majority. House Dem leaders announced a ‘take 4’ plan for 2016 – win four GOP-held seats to eliminate the super majority (pretty modest goal).
- #26 Continued Republican control of state House very likely after 2016 Election … if Democrats won every single GOP-held COMP district, would still only have 48 seats … would have to hold all current DEM-held seats + win all 12 GOP-held LEAN REP seats plus one STRONG REP seat to win simple majority. House Dem leaders announced a ‘take 4’ plan for 2016 – win four GOP-held seats to eliminate the super majority (pretty modest goal).
- #27 Continued Republican control of state House very likely after 2016 Election … if Democrats won every single GOP-held COMP district, would still only have 48 seats … would have to hold all current DEM-held seats + win all 12 GOP-held LEAN REP seats plus one STRONG REP seat to win simple majority. House Dem leaders announced a ‘take 4’ plan for 2016 – win four GOP-held seats to eliminate the super majority (pretty modest goal).
- #36 Continued Republican control of state Senate very likely after 2016 Election … if Democrats won every single GOP-held COMP district, would still only have 20 seat, so would have to will ALL LEAN REP seats to take majority.
- #37 Continued Republican control of state Senate very likely after 2016 Election … if Democrats won every single GOP-held COMP district, would still only have 20 seat, so would have to will ALL LEAN REP seats to take majority.
- #44 It’s just going to be a slug fest.
- #45 It’s just going to be a slug fest.
- #47 Edmunds first justice under new ‘retention’ election for state supreme court … appears on the ballot without an opponent, voters simply voting to keep him or not (if not retain, Gov appoints a replacement and there is an open seat race in two years to elect new justice to fill unexpired term.
- #48 Court of Appeals races generally don’t attract much attention, however increasingly outside money (IE) has come into play in these races.