This document provides an overview and analysis of North Carolina's 2014 election results and insights into the state's 2016 primary and general elections. It summarizes voter trends in urban and rural areas, highlights key congressional and state legislative races, and examines factors like generation gaps and population shifts that could impact upcoming elections. Non-partisan group NCFEF conducted the research to impartially analyze NC's political landscape.

1. 2014 Election Updates & Insights
2016 Primary Election Briefing
January 5, 2016
www.ncfef.org
@ncfef
NCFEF

2. 2014 Election Updates & Insights
NCFEF is a non-partisan, nonprofit organization that
conducts impartial, objective research and analysis on
candidates, campaigns, voter attitudes and demographic
changes that impact North Carolina’s political landscape.
Joe Stewart
Executive Director
jstewart@ncfef.org
(919) 614-0520
www.ncfef.org
@ncfef
NCFEF

3. 2014 Election Updates & Insights
Visit www.ncfef.org
2016 Almanac NCFEF Almanac app
Events Reports
www.ncfef.org
@ncfef
NCFEF

4. What is the 2016 election ‘about’ … ?
fear … anxiety … anger

5. Esquire’s survey on American Rage

6. Esquire’s survey on American Rage

7. Surfing Theory of Politics

8. Key factors in North Carolina 2016 elections
Sen
Richard
Burr

9. 2015 NCFEF Conventional Voting Behavior (CVB)
 CVB = voters partisan disposition
based on statewide races 2008 - 2014.
 This is the voter party-preference
topographical map of NC
 Suburbs full of ‘swingers’
 Other factors: age (esp. Millennials), ethnicity, gender, nativity

10. Past Election Results @ DMA (courtesy of Glen Bolger, POS)
Charlotte (26%)
GOP Dem Other
52% 43% 4%
53% 45% 2%
62% 36% 2%
58% 40% 2%
52% 47% 1%
47% 49% 4%
Other (24%)
GOP Dem Other
51% 44% 4%
54% 45% 1%
55% 43% 2%
57% 41% 2%
46% 53% 1%
46% 51% 3%
Triangle (32%)
GOP Dem Other
2014 Sen: 42% 55% 3%
2012 Pres: 43% 56% 1%
2012 Gov: 46% 51% 3%
2010 Sen: 47% 51% 2%
2008 Pres: 42% 57% 1%
2008 Sen: 39% 58% 3%
Triad (18%)
GOP Dem Other
53% 43% 4%
54% 45% 1%
58% 40% 2%
60% 38% 2%
52% 47% 1%
46% 51% 3%

11. Urbanization and Partisan Voting Performance
MEC
K
WAK
E
2012
Obama 60.8% 54.5%
Romney 38.3% 44.2%
2000
Gore 48.2% 46.0%
Bush 51.0% 53.1%
1988
Dukakis 40.2% 42.8%
Bush 59.4% 56.9%
Year
NC
Population
Growth
2010 9,535,475
2014 9,943,964 +408,489
MECK WAKE
2010 919,628 900,993
2014 1,012,539 998,691
GAIN +92,911 +97,698

12. North Carolina
Statewide
Margin
Wake
County
Margin
Mecklenburg
County
Margin
2000
GOP
+373,471
GOP
+19,028
GOP
+7,157
2004
GOP
+435,317
GOP
+7415
DEM
+11,744
2008
DEM
+14,177
DEM
+64,623
DEM
+99,685
2012
GOP
+97,465
DEM
+54,006
DEM
+100,215
2014
Senate
GOP
+45,608
DEM
+43,797
DEM
+55,971
Wide Democratic margins in
Wake & Mecklenburg counties have moved
North Carolina into the “swing” column.

13. NC Count ies w it h Populat ion Loss, 2010-2014
NC Population Growth Not Even
49 NC counties have lost population since 2010
(2014 Census Bureau Data)

14. Estimated NC Voter Reg by Generation
2%
4%
8%
10%
16%
18%
24%
26% 27%
22%
23%
25% 25%
26% 26% 25%
25% 27%
45%
43%
41%
40%
36%
35%
33%
32%
33%
31%
29%
26%
25%
22%
21%
18%
17%
13%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Oct-15
Millennials Generation X Baby Boomer Silent
Dr. Michael Bitzer
Catawba College

16. North Carolina 2016 Election Dynamics
 President, US Sen, Gov on ballot in ‘battleground’ state = a LOT of
political ads (candidates + outside groups) = high turnout?
 Turnout: 2000: 59% *2004: 64% *2008: 70% 2012: 68%
 Probable election landscape = Urban v. Rural, Suburbs in play
 Watch for ‘enthusiasm gap’ = one party’s base party voters dislike their
party’s candidate(s) more than the other party’s base voters.
 Watch for GOP v GOP Primaries (Establishment v Tea Party)
 March 15, 2016 Primary

17. North Carolina 2016 Primary Dynamics
March 15, 2016 Primary Candidate
Filing in Dec 1 – 21
$2 Billion Bond Package on Ballot
What’s the voter turnout profile?

18. North Carolina 2016 Primary Dynamics
March 15, 2016 Primary Candidate
Filing in Dec 1 – 21
$2 Billion Bond Package on Ballot
What’s the voter turnout profile?

19. NC 2016 Election Dynamics: US Senate
Paul
Wright
Larry
Holmquist
Sen
Richard
Burr
Greg
Brannon
Chris
Rey
Deborah
Ross
Kevin
Griffin
Ernest T.
Reeves
Sean Haugh

20. CVB for US CONGRESS 10 REP – 3 DEM
STRONG DEM (3) LEAN REP (3) STRONG REP (7)
12
Adams*
Guilford 3
Jones
Pitt
13
Holding
Wake
10
McHenry
Gaston
1
Butterfield
Wilson
8
Hudson
Cabarrus
2
Ellmers
Harnett
5
Foxx
Watauga
4
Price
Orange
7
Rouzer*
Johnston
6
Walker*
Guilford
11
Meadows
Macon
*freshman
9
Pittenger
Mecklenburg

21. CONG DIST CVB CANDIDATES
NC - 1 SD
G. K. Butterfield – (I)
C. L. Cooke
NC - 2
SR
Renee Ellmers – (I)
Jim Duncan
Kay Dale
Frank Roche
Tim D'Annunzio
Adam Coker
NC - 3 LR
Walter B. Jones – (I)
Phil Law
Taylor Griffin
David Hurst
NC - 4 SD
David Price – (I)
Teiji Kimball
Sue Googe
NC - 5
SR
Virginia Foxx – (I)
Pattie Curran
Josh Brannon

22. CONG DIST CVB CANDIDATES
NC - 6 SR
B. Mark Walker – (I)
Chris Hardin
Jim Roberts
Pete Glidewell
Bruce Davis
NC - 7 LR
David Rouzer – (I)
Mark D. Otto
J. Wesley Casteen
NC - 8 LR
Richard Hudson – (I)
Thomas Mills
NC - 9 SR
Robert Pittenger – (I)
George Rouco
Christian Cano
NC - 10 SR
Patrick McHenry – (I)
Albert L. Wiley, Jr.
Jeffery Gregory
Andy Millard

23. CONG DIST CVB CANDIDATES
NC - 11 SR
Mark Meadows – (I)
Tom Hill
Rick Bryson
NC - 12 SD
Alma Adams – (I)
Gardenia Henley
Juan Antonio Marin, Jr.
Leon Threatt
Ryan Duffie
NC - 13 SR
George Holding – (I)
John P. McNeil
Ron Sanyal

24. STRONG DEM (34) LEAN DEM (2) LEAN REP (14) STRONG REP (59)
29
L. Hall
Durham 114
Fisher
Buncombe
54
Reives
Lee
118
Presnell
Yancey
55
Brody
Union
86
Blackwell
Burke
110
Hastings
Gaston
96
Adams*
Catawba
106
Cunningham
Mecklenburg
42
Lucas
Cumberland
44
Richardson**
Cumberland
49
Pendleton*
Wake
14
Cleveland
Onslow
82
Pittman
Cabarrus
77
Warren
Rowan
69
Arp
Union
102
Carney
Mecklenburg
5
Hunter
Hertford
COMP (11)
9
Murphy**
Pitt
36
Dollar
Wake
15
Shepard
Onslow
98
Bradford*
Mecklenburg
13
McElraft
Carteret
31
Michaux
Durham
32
Baskerville (NR)
Vance
66
Goodman
Richmond
45
Szoka
Cumberland
40
Avila
Wake
109
Bumgardner
Gaston
91
Hall**
Stokes
81
Brown (NR)
Davidson
33
Gill
Wake
72
Hanes
Forsyth
39 Jackson
Wake
63
Ross
Alamance
37
Stam (NR)
Wake
26
Daughtry (NR)
Johnston
74
Conrad
Forsyth
87
Robinson
Caldwell
99
Moore
Mecklenburg
100
Cotham (NR)
Mecklenburg
50
Meyer
Orange
53
Lewis
Harnett
62
Blust
Guilford
16
Millis
Pender
104
Bishop (NR)
Mecklenburg
76
Ford
Rowan
38
Lewis Holley
Wake
23
Willingham*
Edgecombe
119
Queen
Haywood
93
Jordan
Ashe
111
Moore
Cleveland
83
Johnson
Cabarrus
10
J. Bell
Wayne
95
Fraley
Iredell
60
Brockman*
Guilford
47
Graham
Robeson
2
Yarborough*
Person 1
Steinburg
Chowan
75
Lambeth
Forsyth
19
Davis
New Hanover
84
R. Turner
Iredell
89
Setzer
Catawba
58
Johnson*
Guilford
30
Luebke
Durham
22
Brisson#
Bladen
65
Jones
Rockingham
88
Bryan
Mecklenburg
4
Dixon
Duplin
17
Iler
Brunswick
68
Horn
Union
107
Alexander
Mecklenburg
43
Floyd
Cumberland
92
Jeter
Mecklenburg
3
Speciale
Craven
25
Collins
Nash
59
Hardister
Guilford
108
Torbett
Gaston
94
Elmore
Wilkes
56
Insko
Orange
21
L. Bell
Sampson
115
Ager*
Buncombe
51
Salmon*
Harnett
103
Brawley
Mecklenburg
61
Faircloth
Guilford
105
Schaffer (NR)
Mecklenburg
79
Howard
Davie
24
Farmer-
Butterfield
Wilson
7
Richardson
Franklin
6
Tine (NR)
Dare
64
Riddell
Alamance
20
Catlin (NR)
New Hanover
52
Boles
Moore
97
Saine
Lincoln
48
Pierce
Scotland
18
Hamilton
New Hanover
8
S. Martin
Wilson
116
B. Turner*
Buncombe
112
Hager
Rutherford
117
McGrady
Henderson
85
Dobson
McDowell
71
Terry
Forsyth
34
G. Martin
Wake
41
Adcock*
Wake
35
Malone
Wake
113
Whitmire (NR)
Transylvania
120
West (NR)
Cherokee
73
Zachary*
Yadkin
57
Harrison
Guilford
12
Graham
Lenoir
28
Langdon (NR)
Johnston
80
Watford
Davidson
27
Wray
Northampton
11
D. Hall
Wake *freshman **appointed
NR = not running in 2016
90
Stevens
Surry
70
Hurley
Randolph
101
Earle
Mecklenburg
46
Waddell (NR)
Columbus
67
Burr
Stanly
78
McNeill
Randolph
CVB for NC HOUSE 74 REP – 45 DEM – 1 UNA

25. NC HOUSE 74 REP – 45 DEM – 1 UNA
22 HOUSE REPUBLICAN WINNERS
DISTRICT CVB INCUMBENT 2015 LBR
HD 004 SR Jimmy Dixon 90.0
HD 014 SR George G. Cleveland 75.0
HD 019 SR Ted Davis, Jr. 90.0
HD 061 SR John Faircloth 90.0
HD 062 SR John M. Blust 79.2
HD 063 LR Stephen Ross 92.5
HD 064 LR Dennis Riddell 90.0
HD 068 SR Craig Horn 85.5
HD 075 SR Donny C Lambeth 90.0
HD 076 SR Carl Ford 76.7
HD 079 SR Julia Craven Howard 80.9
HD 080 SR Sam Watford 90.0
HD 085 SR Josh Dobson 95.0
HD 089 SR Mitchell Setzer 77.5
HD 096 SR Jay Adams 85.8
HD 097 SR Jason R. Saine 90.5
HD 098 SR John R. Bradford III 90.0
HD 108 SR John A. Torbett 95.0
HD 110 SR Kelly Hastings 90.0
HD 111 SR Tim Moore 95.0
HD 112 SR Mike Hager 95.0
HD 117 SR Chuck McGrady 80.8

26. NC HOUSE 74 REP – 45 DEM – 1 UNA
19 HOUSE DEMOCRAT WINNERS
DISTRICT CVB CANDIDATE 2015 LBR
HD 005 SD Howard J. Hunter III 43.2
HD 012 SD George Graham 67.5
HD 023 SD Shelly Willingham 31.1
HD 029 SD Larry D. Hall 24.1
HD 031 SD Mickey Michaux, Jr. 35.8
HD 039 SD Darren Jackson 59.2
HD 042 SD Marvin W. Lucas 73.0
HD 043 SD Elmer Floyd 66.7
HD 048 SD Garland E. Pierce 49.2
HD 056 SD Verla Insko 19.1
HD 057 SD Pricey Harrison 12.0
HD 060 SD Cecil Brockman 67.5
HD 066 SD Ken Goodman 92.5
HD 071 SD Evelyn Terry 38.2
HD 072 SD Ed Hanes Jr. 80.9
HD 099 SD Rodney W. Moore 80.0
HD 102 SD Becky Carney 63.3
HD 106 SD Carla Cunningham 47.3
HD 114 SD Susan C. Fisher 14.5

27. HOUSE INCUMBENTS FACING A GENERAL ONLY
COMP & LEAN CVB RATINGS - 9 REP & 7 DEM
DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INCUMBENT 2015 LBR
HD 002 COMP -1,605 Larry Yarborough 85
HD 008 COMP 1,861 Susan Martin 90
HD 041 COMP 15,176 Gale Adcock 54.2
HD 115 COMP 3,778 John Ager 50
HD 119 COMP 1,119 Joe Sam Queen 48.3
HD 044 LD 1,998 Billy Richardson 50
HD 054 LD 5,531 Robert T. Reives II 50
HD 001 LR 768 Bob Steinburg 92.5
HD 003 LR 368 Michael Speciale 71.7
HD 035 LR 14,184 Chris Malone 69.2
HD 045 LR 2,902 John Szoka 90
HD 049 LR 2,346 Gary Pendleton 66.8
HD 065 LR -2,516 Bert Jones 85.8
HD 118 LR 508 Michele D. Presnell 85.8
HD 051 LR 5,706 Brad Salmon 76.7
HD 116 LR 5,296 Brian Turner 63.3

28. HOUSE INCUMBENTS GENERAL ONLY – STRONG REP CVB RATING 18 REPUBLICANS
DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INCUMBENT 2015 LBR
HD 013 SR 2,265 Pat McElraft 95.0
HD 010 SR 8,137 John R. Bell 92.5
HD 015 SR 811 Phillip Shepard 90.0
HD 016 SR 7,204 Chris W. Millis 81.7
HD 025 SR 830 Jeff Collins 85.5
HD 040 SR 13,125 Marilyn Avila 73.9
HD 055 SR 683 Mark Brody 85.8
HD 059 SR 5,676 Jon Hardister 81.7
HD 069 SR 6,387 Dean Arp 90.8
HD 070 SR 605 Pat B. Hurley 85.8
HD 074 SR 1,963 Debra Conrad 85.8
HD 078 SR 611 Allen McNeill 85.8
HD 086 SR -161 Hugh Blackwell 85.5
HD 088 SR 1,353 Rob Bryan 92.5
HD 090 SR -737 Sarah Stevens 90.0
HD 094 SR -729 Jeffrey Elmore 85.0
HD 103 SR 6,714 Bill Brawley 90.5
HD 109 SR 1,476 Dana Bumgardner 77.5

29. HOUSE INCUMBENTS FACING A GENERAL ONLY – STRONG DEM CVD RATING
7 DEMOCRATS
DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INCUMBENT 2015 LBR
HD 007 SD -72 Bobbie J. Richardson 44.2
HD 011 SD 5,646 Duane Hall 54.2
HD 018 SD 4,737 Susi Hamilton 68.9
HD 030 SD 11,548 Paul Luebke 11.3
HD 034 SD 2,625 Grier Martin 29.1
HD 038 SD 9,300 Yvonne Lewis Holley 35.8
HD 050 SD 6,127 Graig R. Meyer 51.8

30. 9 HOUSE DEMOCRAT INCUMBENTS FACING A PRIMARY
DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INCUMBENT
GENERAL
ALSO
2015 LBR
HD 021 SD -8 Larry M. Bell NO 62.5
HD 022 COMP 176 William Brisson NO 90.0
HD 024 SD 1,765 Jean Farmer-Butterfield NO 42.7
HD 027 SD -3,357 Michael H. Wray NO 80.0
HD 033 SD 8,249 Rosa U Gill NO 45.0
HD 047 SD 509 Charles Graham NO 55.8
HD 058 SD 1,995 Ralph C. Johnson NO 52.3
HD 101 SD 10,098 Beverly Miller Earle YES 45.0
HD 107 SD 8,900 Kelly Alexander NO 58.3

31. 14 HOUSE REPUBLICAN INCUMBENTS FACING A PRIMARY
DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INCUMBENT
GENERAL
ALSO
2015 LBR
HD 017 SR 7,812 Frank Iler YES 90.0
HD 036 SR 6,399 Nelson Dollar YES 85.8
HD 052 SR 4,640 Jamie Boles NO 90.0
HD 053 LR 7,740 David R. Lewis YES 90.5
HD 067 SR -472 Justin P. Burr YES 81.7
HD 073 SR -437 Lee Zachary NO 95.0
HD 077 SR 140 Harry Warren NO 81.7
HD 082 SR 9,031 Larry G. Pittman YES 69.2
HD 083 SR 4,343 Linda P. Johnson YES 90.0
HD 084 SR 1,890 Rena W. Turner YES 90.0
HD 087 SR -1,545 George S. Robinson NO 87.5
HD 092 COMP 15,160 Charles Jeter YES 86.7
HD 093 LR 1,326 Jonathan C. Jordan YES 81.7
HD 095 SR 5,348 John A. Fraley NO 95.0

32. OPEN SEAT RACES – NC HOUSE
DISTRICT CVB POP +/-
LBR OF
INC
CANDIDATES
HD 006
TINE (U)
COMP 238 90.0
Judy Justice
Warren Judge
Arthur Williams
Ashley Woolard
Beverly Boswell
HD 020
CATLIN (R)
SR 6,747 78.9
Holly Grange
Tammy Covil
HD 026
DAUGHTRY (R)
SR 8,091 95.0
Dennis Nielsen
Donna McDowell White
Rich Nixon
HD 028
LANGDON (R)
SR 4,368 85.8
Jimmie M. Massengill
Patricia Oliver
Gregory A. Dail
Larry C. Strickland
Tony Braswell
HD 032
B’VILLE (D)
SD -1,692 40.8
Gary Lamont Miles Sr
Terri H. Campbell
Terry Garrison

33. OPEN SEAT RACES – NC HOUSE
DISTRICT CVB POP +/-
LBR OF
INC
CANDIDATES
HD 37
STAM (R)
SR 12,046 85.8
Linda Hunt-Williams
Jonathan Graham
HD 46
WADDELL (D)
SD -1,093 85.0
Brenden Jones
Tim Benton
Thomas (Tom) Howell Jr
HD 81
R. BROWN (R)
SR 663 80.0
Larry W. Potts
Sharon Phillips Pearce
Tyler Lohr Forrest
HD 100
COTHAM (D)
SD 1,692 59.3
Billy Maddalon
John Autry
HD 104
BISHOP (R)
SR 1,417 85.0
Andy Dulin
Peter Noris
HD 105
SR 12,855 85.0
Scott Stone
Tim Morgan

34. OPEN SEAT RACES – NC HOUSE
DISTRICT CVB POP +/-
LBR
OF INC
CANDIDATES
HD 113
WHITMIRE (R)
SR 757 90.0
Cody Henson
Coty James Ferguson
Maureen Mahan Copelof
HD 120
WEST (R)
SR -573 95.0
Elliott J. Southworth
Kevin Corbin
*HD 9
B. BROWN (R)
LR 3,747 90.0
Brian Farkas
Walter E. Gaskins
Greg Murphy*
*HD 91
H’WAY (R)
SR 1,050 85.8
Ira (Bubba) Tilley
Kyle Hall*
Robert Knight

35. CVB for NC SENATE 34 REP – 16 DEM
STRONG DEM (16) COMPETITIVE (4) LEAN REP (6) STRONG REP (24)
28
Robinson
Guilford
21 Clark
Hoke
19
Meredith
Cumberland
8
Rabon
Brunswick
50
Davis
Macon
24
Gunn
Alamance
39
Rucho (NR)
Mecklenburg
40
Waddell*
Mecklenburg
5
Davis
Greene
1
Cook
Beaufort
9
Lee*
New Hanover
46
Daniel
Burke
47
Hise
Mitchell
31
Krawiec
Forsyth
38
Ford
Mecklenburg
13
Smith*
Robeson
25
McInnis*
Richmond
15
Alexander*
Wake
27
Wade
Guilford
2
Sanderson
Pamlico
44
Curtis
Lincoln
14
Blue
Wake
23
Foushee
Orange
18
Barefoot
Wake
10
B. Jackson
Sampson
11
Newton
(NR)
Wilson
45
Soucek (NR)
Watauga
35
Tucker
Union
20
McKissick
Durham
22
Woodard
Durham
12
Rabin
Harnett
6
Brown
Onslow
48
Apodaca
(NR)
Henderson
42
Wells*
Catawba
4
Bryant
Nash
37
J. Jackson
Mecklenburg
17
Barringer
Wake
41
Tarte
Mecklenburg
36
Hartsell (NR)
Cabarrus
33
Bingham (NR)
Davidson
3
Smith-
Ingram*
Edgecombe
16
Stein (NR)
Wake
26
Berger
Rockingham
43
Harrington
Gaston
30
Randleman
Wilkes
32
Lowe*
Forsyth
49
Van
Duyn*
Buncombe
*freshman
NR = not running in 2016
7
Pate
Wayne
34
Brock
Davie
29
Tillman
Randolph

36. 9 SENATE REPUBLICAN WINNERS
DISTRICT CVB CANDIDATE 2015 LBR
SD 06 SR Harry Brown 95.0
SD 07 SR Louis M. Pate Jr. 95.0
SD 08 LR Bill Rabon 85.9
SD 10 LR Brent Jackson 95.0
SD 26 SR Phil Berger 95.0
SD 29 SR Jerry W. Tillman 90.0
SD 34 SR Andrew C Brock 85.8
SD 42 SR Andy Wells 90.0
SD 43 SR Kathy Harrington 90.0
4 SENATE DEMOCRAT WINNERS
DISTRICT CVB CANDIDATE 2015 LBR
SD 03 SD Erica Smith-Ingram 47.8
SD 05 SD Don Davis 48.3
SD 14 SD Dan Blue 55.0
SD 32 SD Paul Lowe Jr. 45.0
NC SENATE 34 REP – 16 DEM

37. 16 SENATE REPUBLICAN INCUMBENTS FACING A GENERAL ONLY
DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INCUMBENT 2015 LBR
SD 01 COMP 1,165 Bill Cook 80.0
SD 02 SR 3,151 Norman Sanderson 90.0
SD 09 LR 13,579 Michael Lee 90.0
SD 12 LR 15,450 Ronald Rabin 90.0
SD 15 LR 16,411 John Alexander 65.0
SD 17 LR 27,427 Tamara Barringer 80.0
SD 18 COMP 16,934 Chad Barefoot 90.0
SD 19 COMP 5,560 Wesley Meredith 78.9
SD 24 SR 4,950 Rick Gunn 95.0
SD 25 COMP -2,603 Tom McInnis 90.0
SD 27 SR 9,258 Trudy Wade 90.0
SD 30 SR -2,189 Shirley Randleman 90.0
SD 41 SR 28,598 Jeff Tarte 90.0
SD 46 SR -2,428 Warren Daniel 80.5
SD 47 SR -1,473 Ralph Hise 85.8
SD 50 SR 865 Jim Davis 87.5

38. 7 SENATE DEMOCRAT INCUMBENTS FACING A GENERAL ONLY
DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INCUMBENT 2015 LBR
SD 13 SD -553 Jane W. Smith 54.2
SD 20 SD 9,597 Floyd B. McKissick, Jr. 32.5
SD 22 SD 14,891 Mike Woodard 52.3
SD 23 SD 11,812 Valerie P. Foushee 37.2
SD 28 SD 7,432 Gladys A. Robinson 28.6
SD 37 SD 15,790 Jeff Jackson 38.2
SD 49 SD 8,910 Terry Van Duyn 45.0

39. 3 SENATE REPUBLICAN INCUMBENTS FACING A PRIMARY
DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INCUMBENT
GENERAL
ALSO
2015
LBR
SD 31 SR 5,819 Joyce Krawiec NO 85.8
SD 35 SR 16,584 Tommy Tucker NO 90.8
SD 44 SR 8,165 David L. Curtis YES 90.0
4 SENATE DEMOCRATS FACING A PRIMARY
SD 04 SD -3,495 Angela R. Bryant YES 45.0
SD 21 SD 5,996 Ben Clark YES 77.5
SD 38 SD 22,663 Joel Ford YES 70.0
SD 40 SD 12,219 Joyce Waddell YES 35.8

40. OPEN SEAT RACES – NC SENATE
DISTRICT CVB POP +/- LBR OF INC CANDIDATES
SD 11
NEWTON (R)
SR 4,638 79.4
Benton Sawrey
Rick Horner
Albert Pacer
SD 16
STEIN (D)
SD 17,905 40.0
Jay Chaudhuri
Ellis Hankins
Eric Weaver
SD 33
BINGHAM (R)
SR
791
85.8
Cathy Dunn
Joe D. Kennedy
Eddie Gallimore
Jim Beall Graham
SD 36
HARTSELL (R)
SR 14,784
85.5
Andrew W. Platek
Robert Brown
Amy Blake
Parish Moffitt
Paul R. Newton
Scott C. Aumuller

41. OPEN SEAT RACES – NC SENATE
DISTRICT CVB POP +/- LBR OF INC CANDIDATES
SD 39
RUCHO (R)
SR 13,641 83.0
Lloyd Scher
Dan Bishop
SD 45
SOUCEK (R)
SR -519 85.0
Deanna Ballard
Ken Boham
Art Sherwood
SD 48
APODACA (R)
SR 7,675 95.0
Chuck Edwards
Dennis Justice
Lisa Carpenter Baldwin
Norman Bossert

42. Partisan Composition & CVB
NC General Assembly &
Congressional Delegation
Strong
REP
Lean
REP
COMP
Lean
DEM
Strong
DEM
NC House
74 – 45 – 1 59 14 11 2 34
NC Senate
34 – 16 24 6 4 0 16
US Congress
10 – 3 7 3 0 0 3

43.  NC CVB = 0, so statewide races generally tend
to be competitive
 Suburbs = battleground
 2016 = $100+ million in outside spending
 Gets ugly quick, stays ugly
NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Governor

44. NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Governor
Cooper
Victory
Strong US
Senate
Candidate
Presidential
Candidate
Fights for
NC
Functioning
NC Dem
Party
McCrory
Victory
Voters
Positive on
NC
Economy
Parity in
Outside $
Enthusiasm
for
Presidental
Candidate

45. NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Exec Branch
GOV
Roy Cooper $3M
Ken Spaulding $50K
Lon
Cecil
Pat McCrory 56.62% $2.4M
Robert Brawley C. K. Moss
LTGOV
Linda Coleman $48K Holly Jones
Robert Wilson $6K Ron Newton
JJ
Summerell Dan Forest 50.08% ($247K)
AG
OPEN
Sen. Josh Stein $1.1M
Marcus W. Williams
Sen. Buck Newton $200K
Jim O’Neill $94K
INS
Wayne Goodwin 51.9% $360K
Mike Causey
Ron Pierce
Joe McLaughlin
AUD
Beth Wood 53.71% $27K Chuck Stuber
SOS
Elaine Marshall 53.79% $35K AJ Daoud Michael LaPaglia
LAB
Charles Meeker $15K Cherie Berry 53.26% $15K
AGR
Walter Smith
Steve Troxler 53.22% $7K
Andy Stevens
SPI
June Atkinson 54.24% $9K
Henry J. Pankey
Mark Johnson $105K
Rosemary Stein J.Wesley Sills
ST
OPE)
Ron Elmer Dan Blue III Dale Folwell
%=2012results($)=cashonhandasofJune30,2015

46. 2016 Election: State Supreme Court
Voters will cast their ballot to to
determine whether to retain
Justice Robert H. Edmunds
(Guilford)

47. Linda H. Stephens - D
1st Term (Wake)
Phil Berger, Jr.
Orange - REP
Bob Hunter - R
1st Term [2014] (Guilford)
Abe Jones
Wake – DEM
Richard Dietz - R
1st Term (Forsyth)
Vince Rozier
Wake – DEM
Valerie Zachary - R
1st Term [2015] (Yadkin)
Rickye McKoy-Mitchell
Mecklenburg – DEM
2016 Election: Court of Appeals

48. 2014 Election Updates & Insights
Questions?
Joe Stewart
Executive Director
jstewart@ncfef.org
(919) 614-0520
www.ncfef.org
@ncfef
NCFEF