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Grantmakers for Southern Progress - Moving the South Forwards: A Post-Election Funder Briefing
- 1. MOVING THE SOUTH FORWARD IN THE NEW REALITY: A POST-ELECTION FUNDER BRIEFING
- 2. Welcome! LaTosha Brown Project Director Grantmakers for Southern Progress Neighborhood Funders Group Chantelle Fisher-Borne Project Director Out in the South Initiative Funders for LGBTQ Issues
- 3. The Southern Context: Perspectives from a long-time Southern social justice funder Justin Maxson Executive Director Mary Reynolds Babcock Foundation Today’s Moderator
- 4. Page Gleason Executive Director Pro-Georgia Chris Kromm Executive Director Institute for Southern Studies Erin Byrd Executive Director Blueprint NC Paulina Helm-Hernandez Co-Director Southerners on New Ground (SONG) Monica Hernandez Executive Director Southeast Immigrant Rights Network Today’s Panelists
- 5. Multi-state analysis of election results in the South Chris Kromm Executive Director Institute for Southern Studies
- 6. THE SOUTH & 2016 ELECTIONS Chris Kromm December 2016
- 8. Share of Electoral College vote 2016 SOUTHERN 32% NON- SOUTHERN 68% Source: Census Bureau
- 9. Expected gains in Congressional seats and Electoral College, 2020 Census Source: UNC Population Center/Carolina Demography +2 +1 +1 +1
- 10. Voting in Southern States: 2012 vs. 2016 Source: U.S. Elections Project/CNN/State Election Websites
- 11. 2016 elections in North Carolina Source: NC State Board of Elections PRESIDENT Trump 49.8% U.S. SENATE Burr 51.1% GOVERNOR Cooper 49.0% ATTY GENERAL Stein 50.3% NC SUPREME CRT Morgan 54.5% LT. GOVERNOR Forest 51.8%
- 12. 2012 vs. 2016 electorate and race: Georgia Source: GA Secretary of State RACE 2012 2016 White 61.4% 61% Black 29.9% 27.6% “Hispanic/ 3.2% 4.8% Asian/Other” Unknown 5.5% 6.6%
- 13. Share of population born outside the South Source: Census Bureau/The New York Times
- 14. North Carolina exit polls Source: Exit polls/CNN
- 16. 2016 vote: metros, small cities, rural areas Source: Exit polls/Daily Yonder
- 17. 2016 Elections: Size of victory Source: New York Times
- 18. The Trump vote Source: New York Times
- 19. Shift in legislative balance of power Source: State legislature websites FL +4 GA +2 TX +6 NC – no net change AR +7 KY +18 SC +3 TN +2
- 20. Balance of power in legislatures Source: State legislature websites 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% WV Senate WV House VA Senate VA House TX Senate TX House TN Senate TN House SC Senate SC House NC Senate NC House MS Senate MS House LA Senate LA House KY Senate KY House GA Senate GA House FL Senate FL House AR Senate AR House AL Senate AL House DEM GOP IND/VAC
- 21. 2016 Trifectas: GOP control of state government Source: State government websites
- 22. Cities as a base of progressive power Source: Census Bureau 2015 estimates, Ballotpedia
- 23. Partisan affiliation by state, 2015 Source: Gallup
- 24. Most gerrymandered Congressional districts (2013) Source: The Washington Post
- 25. Gerrymandering 2016: Partisan voter mismatch Source: The Washington Post
- 26. Poll closures since 2013 Source: Leadership Conference Education Fund
- 27. Ex-felon voter disenfranchisement rates Source: Sentencing Project
- 28. Source: Ballotpedia/Facing South, 2016 Alabama “Right to Work” Amendment Passed Arkansas Medical Marijuana Passed Florida Utility-Backed Solar Power Defeated Medical Marijuana Passed Georgia ”Opportunity School Districts”/Charters Defeated Virginia “Right to Work” Amendment Defeated 2016 Southern Ballot Initiatives
- 29. Questions or more information CHRIS KROMM ALLIE YEE Executive Director/Publisher Associate Director chris@southernstudies.org allie@southernstudies.org @chriskromm @allieyee_nc INSTITUTE FOR SOUTHERN STUDIES www.southernstudies.org FACING SOUTH WEEKLY UPDATE facingsouth@southernstudies.org put “subscribe” in subject line
- 30. Key learnings and insights from civic engagement efforts in North Carolina and Georgia Erin Byrd Executive Director Blueprint NC Page Gleason Executive Director Pro-Georgia
- 33. Collective Impact = Coordination • Coordination: • Largest Voter Registration Program in our history – collected over 200,000 cards • Largest GOTV program (over 1 million contacts) • Largest Election Protection program in the country (over 1300 volunteers in 40 counties) • Built infrastructure in Black, Latino and Asian Pacific Islander Communities
- 34. Early Voting Turnout Blueprint Universe (Statewide POC and MOM’s) Our overall GOTV universe (phone, mail, and door combined) 1,101,851 voters 423,712 voted early 38.5% percent Our MOM's (only registered MOM's) 337,822 voters 211,635 voted early 62.6% percent
- 35. c North Carolina Performance and Vote Share by Race Race Obama 2008 Hagan 2008 Perdue 2008 Obama 2012 Dalton 2012 Hagan 2014 Clinton 2016 Ross 2016 Cooper 2016 Performance by Race (Exit Polls) White 35% 39% 36% 31% 29% 33% 33% 32% 36% Black 95% 96% 95% 96% 85% 96% 91% 89% 87% Latino N/A N/A N/A 68% 52% N/A 58% 47% 63% Asian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Other N/A N/A N/A 52% 44% N/A 59% 60% 60% Vote Share by Race (Exit Polls) White 72% 75% 75% 70% 71% 74% 71% 71% 71% Black 23% 19% 19% 23% 22% 21% 20% 20% 20% Latino 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 3% 5% 5% 5% Asian 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Other 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 3% 3% Sources: North Carolina Exit Polls, Edison Research, 2008-2016.
- 36. North Carolina Performance and Vote Share by Age Age Obama 2008 Hagan 2008 Perdue 2008 Obama 2012 Dalton 2012 Hagan 2014 Clinton 2016 Ross 2016 Cooper 2016 Performance by Age (Exit Polls) 18–29 74% 71% 71% 67% 56% 53% 60% 56% 63% 30–44 48% 51% 50% 51% 46% 54% 49% 48% 52% 45–64 43% 46% 45% 47% 41% 46% 44% 41% 45% 65+ 43% 45% 40% 35% 34% 42% 37% 37% 39% Vote Share by Age (Exit Polls) 18–29 18% 17% 17% 16% 14% 12% 18% 18% 19% 30–44 27% 27% 28% 25% 24% 25% 26% 26% 26% 45–64 39% 39% 39% 39% 40% 41% 38% 38% 38% 65+ 16% 16% 16% 21% 21% 23% 18% 18% 18% Sources: North Carolina Exit Polls, Edison Research, 2008-2016.
- 37. In the 58 counties that have been plagued by neither flooding nor locked polling place doors (Unimpaired Counties) African Americans are voting at 91% of their 2012 rate – not great, but a definite improvement over the statewide rate of just 82%. By contrast, among the 32 counties for which federal disaster declarations are in effect, that rate drops substantially to just 79%. http://www.insight-us.org/blog/african-american-early-voting-is-way-down-in-north-carolina-why-is-that
- 39. ProGeorgia
- 40. ProGeorgia’s Collective Impact Top Lines • 58% of voters cast their votes Early. Up from 50% in 2012 • 57% of the 83,306 voters we registered turned out to vote • ProGeorgia collective GOTV universe was over 550,000 new & low- propensity voters • 70% of the voters contacted by partner organizations turned out to vote • Election Protection: over 150 volunteers covered over 300 precincts • OSD Amendment FAILED with 60% of the vote
- 41. Georgia Statewide Voter Turnout Comparison By Year 2016 2016% 2014 2014% 2012 2012% TOTAL total registered voters 5,418,893 5,170,388 5,428,980 total votes cast 4,132,508 76% 2,593,555 50% 3,919,355 72% Statewide Turnout Comparison
- 42. Turnout By Demographics – year by year comparison DEMOGRAPHICS 2016 Registered 2016 Voted % 2012 Registered 2012 Voted % Change Black Female 1048889 778851 74% 949,498 734,014 77% -3% Black Male 721448 445613 62% 660,486 434,273 66% -4% White Female 1780403 1449190 81% 1,685,309 1,280,058 76% 5% White Male 1588296 1272261 80% 1,485,658 1,119,278 75% 5% AAPI Female 60313 40784 68% 37,957 21,182 56% 12% AAPI Male 55685 36542 66% 34,523 18,517 54% 12% Latina 82840 58237 70% 50,049 29,772 59% 11% Latino 67993 43061 63% 41,790 22,057 53% 10% Single Women 1,759,357 996703 57% 1,166,886 659,499 57% 0% Youth 1519385 904323 60% 1,011,402 475,188 47% 13%
- 43. The impact of the election on social justice efforts that aim to support LGBTQ, people of color and immigrant communities in the South Monica Hernandez Executive Director Southeast Immigrant Rights Network Paulina Helm-Hernandez Co-Director Southerners on New Ground (SONG)
- 44. Q AND A Two ways to ask a question of the speakers: 1. Use the Q and A function on your task bar to type a question. 2. Click the “raise your hand” icon and the host will call on you to ask your question live.
- 45. THANKS FOR JOINING AND NEXT STEPS!
Editor's Notes
- www.southernstudies.org
- Source: Census Bureau Congressional Apportionment 2010 http://www.census.gov/population/apportionment/files/Apportionment%20Population%202010.pdf Chart: Institute for Southern Studies
- Source: UNC Population Center/Carolina Demography http://demography.cpc.unc.edu/2015/11/03/2020-reapportionment-will-shift-political-power-south-and-west/
- Source: 2000 Census and 2014 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau Chart: Institute for Southern Studies
- Source: NC State Board of Elections http://er.ncsbe.gov/?election_dt=11/08/2016&county_id=0&office=JUD&contest=1393
- Source: NC State Board of Elections http://er.ncsbe.gov/?election_dt=11/08/2016&county_id=0&office=JUD&contest=1393
- Source: Census Bureau via IPUMS, U. of Minnesota Population Center Chart: The Upshot (New York Times) http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/15/upshot/changing-south-is-at-intersection-of-demographics-and-politics.html?action=click&contentCollection=The%20Upshot&module=RelatedCoverage®ion=Marginalia&pgtype=article
- Source: Exit polls Chart: http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/north-carolina/president
- Proportion to which candidate won in area http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president
- Source and Map: Washington Post https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/04/05/these-two-maps-are-incredibly-revealing-about-whos-voting-for-trump-and-why/
- Source: State legislatures’ websites Chart: Institute for Southern Studies
- Source: State legislatures’ websites Chart: Institute for Southern Studies
- Source: State legislatures’ websites Chart: Institute for Southern Studies
- Source: State elections websites Chart: Institute for Southern Studies
- Source and map: Gallup http://www.gallup.com/poll/188969/red-states-outnumber-blue-first-time-gallup-tracking.aspx
- Source and map: Washington Post http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/05/15/americas-most-gerrymandered-congressional-districts/
- Source and map: Washington Post http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/05/15/americas-most-gerrymandered-congressional-districts/
- Source and map: Washington Post http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/05/15/americas-most-gerrymandered-congressional-districts/
- Source and chart: Prison Policy Initiative http://www.prisonpolicy.org/reports/overtime.html
- Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Chart: Institute for Southern Studies