Public Affairs Council: 2018 State and Local Election Preview
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My plenary lunch presentation to attendees of the State and Local Government Affairs Conference on September 26, 2018 in Alexandria, Virginia
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Public Affairs Council: 2018 State and Local Election Preview
- 1. Plenary Lunch: 2018 State and Local Election Preview Mood of the electorate, hot statewide races, flippable state legislatures, key ballot initiatives, and what to look for from polling leading up to Election Day. Michael D. Cohen, Ph.D. Founder & CEO Cohen Research Group @michaelcohen
- 2. 2 Agenda Essentials of Government Relations: Understanding the mood of the electorate will help you understand what will drive turnout and outcomes in November. Strategy and Showcasing the Function: Where should your team/clients focus your attention this fall and what might we expect to happen? Professional Development: What am I going to learn during lunch that will help you improve your analysis of available political information? Tactics that Move the Needle: What can you do between now and Election Day to help your team get to where they want to be?
- 3. Executive Summary 3 Mood of the Electorate: Midterm elections are historically referenda on the incumbent president. Trump is historically divisive, which should turn out more Democrats and Republicans than usual and in unexpected ways. We expect turnout to be up for an off-year election. Or should we?
- 4. Executive Summary 4 Strategic Targeting: Pay close attention to key governor races in AK, CO, CT, FL, IL, NM, ME, MI, flippable legislatures in AK, CO, FL, NM, ME, NV and ballot issues in FL, MI, OH, NV. While Trump sets the mood, state and local issues set the voting agenda.
- 5. Executive Summary 5 Do Not Overanalyze: Polling on statewide, legislature, and ballot initiatives is sporadic and generally publicly released by partisans. Infer trends with caution. Understand off-year election history and be careful about early polling.
- 6. Executive Summary 6 Target Scarce Resources: Deploy tactics only toward those winnable targets. You cannot win everywhere in an off-year election with low-voter turnout. Track the key statewide races and ballot initiatives in your policy area.
- 7. Mood of the Electorate 7 Midterms 2010 Right Track: 31.4% Wrong Track: 63.6% Wrong Track +32.2% Midterms 2014 Right Track: 27.8% Wrong Track: 66.0% Wrong Track +38.2% Difference -6.0% Midterms 2018* Right Track: 39.3% Wrong Track: 53.5% Wrong Track +14.2% Difference +24.0% Republicans are MUCH happier with the direction of the country.
- 8. Mood of the Electorate 8 Midterms 2010 Right Track: 31.4% Wrong Track: 63.6% Wrong Track +32.2% Midterms 2014 Right Track: 27.8% Wrong Track: 66.0% Wrong Track +38.2% Difference -6.0% Midterms 2018* Right Track: 39.3% Wrong Track: 53.5% Wrong Track +14.2% Difference +24.0% Democrats are NOT AS ANGRY with the direction of the country … RIGHT NOW.
- 9. Mood of the Electorate 9 Dissatisfaction is the recent political NORM. Most recent time the mood of the electorate was EVEN right before President Obama’s inauguration. So, who will show up in November? We don’t know and there is still a LOT of time. It’s only September!
- 10. Mood of the U.S. House of Representatives 10 Democrats only need 23 seats need to flip control of the U.S. House of Representatives. The GOP has a net of 35 at risk. As of mid-September 2018, 41 Republicans are leaving the House of Representatives. Chart: Bruce Mehlman Data: Cook Political Report Net Seats at Risk 35/23=152% Democrats have room to lose but still win control. In the GOP Wave of 1994, Republicans outperformed the number of seats at risk they needed to win the majority.
- 11. 11 Governor: Sets the statewide issue agenda and several may flip from Republican to Democratic control. Expect higher turnout than usual in each of these states. Hot Statewide Elections Source: The Cook Political Report Democrats defending five flippable seats, none rated “Lean Republican” Key Initiatives: Two on the ballot in Colorado for congressional (Y) and state legislature redistricting (Z)
- 12. 12 Governor: Set the statewide issue agenda and several may flip from Republican to Democratic control. Expect higher turnout in each of these states. Hot Statewide Elections Republicans defending 11 flippable seats, including two rated “Lean Democrat” Source: The Cook Political Report Bounceback Races: Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Nevada, Illinois, New Mexico, and Wisconsin
- 13. 13 Governor: Set the statewide issue agenda and several may flip from Republican to Democratic control. Expect higher turnout in each of these states. Hot Statewide Elections Republicans defending 11 flippable seats, including two rated “Lean Democrat” Source: The Cook Political Report Key Initiatives: Florida: taxes, felon voters, bans off-shore drilling AND indoor vaping Michigan: recreational marijuana Ohio: congressional redistricting (May), drug possession decriminalization (November) Nevada: automatic voter registration at the DMV Aside from taxes, these are Blue Wave initiatives designed to bring Democrats to the polls in November, right out of the Lee Atwater GHWB playbook.
- 14. 14 Incumbent Governor Polling Baselines Source: Morning Consult (July 25, 2018) * Bruce Rauner (R-IL) -33% Lower Net Approval Higher Net Approval * Scott Walker (R-WI) -8% Kim Reynolds (R-IA) +1% Kate Brown (D-OR) +3% Bill Walker (I-AK) -25% * Susana Martinez (R-NM) -19% * Rick Scott (R-FL) +21% Jeff Colyer (R- KS) +18% Paul LePage (R-ME) -14% * Rick Snyder (R-MI) -15% * Brian Sandoval (R-NV) +38% * John Kasich (R- OH) +15% Nathan Deal (R-GA) +31% * John Hickenlooper (D-CO) +23% Dan Malloy (D-CT) -50% Mark Dayton (D-MN) +16% Running for Re-Election Not Running for Re-Election Which Could Flip? All of the states in RED and …
- 15. 15 Win Five Seats for Party Control House Senate * AK (R+2) AZ (R+4) * CO (D+7) * CO (R+2) CT (D+9) CT (Tied) DE (D+7) DE (D+1) * NM (R+1) * FL (R+7) WA (D+2) * ME (R+1) MN (Tied) NH (R+4) * NV (D+1) NY (R+1) OR (D+4) WA (D+1) WI (R+4) Flippable State Legislatures Pre-Election Map Republicans hold 32, Democrats 14, and four are Split
- 16. 16 Name ID: Good local candidates can outperform waves if their connection to the community is strong. New or unprofessional local candidates for small city and county races win or lose based on partisan turnout. Connect the Dots: Local candidates can gain more attention if they (1) canvass! (2) jump on a hot ballot initiative, (3) microtarget their name/issues on social media rather than just on road/yard signs or in mailers. Local Races
- 17. How to Approach These Campaigns 17 Wait for It: Early polling on state campaigns and ballot initiatives is notoriously inaccurate. Likely voters take time to engage on these races. Work It: There will be surprises and only in retrospect will we see that those campaigns that worked for it, won it. Track It: Use multiple data points to determine the trajectory of races you are following. Polling alone will not give you clear direction.
- 18. James Hohmann Washington Post 202 Newsletter Funding a State-Level Wave? 18 THE BIG IDEA: A trio of progressive groups will spend $10 million between now and Election Day on digital ads to boost 75 largely obscure candidates running for state legislature. The primary goal is to give Democrats control of chambers that will play an outsized role in the next round of reapportionment, so the money will be spread across just five states: Pennsylvania, FLORIDA, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan.
- 19. What to Watch for on Election Day 19 Pay close attention to … • Key governor races • Hot ballot issues WA OR CA MT ID NV AZ UT WY CO NM TX OK KS NE SD ND MN IA MO AR LA MS AL GA FL SC TN NC IL WI MI OH IN KY WV VA PA NY ME VT NH NJ DE MD DC MA CT RI AK HI • Flippable legislatures Florida, Florida, Florida? Pay attention to all three.
- 20. What to Expect on Election Day 20 Blue Wave: Likely overstated nationally, we will see state and local-level blue waves in some areas including Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Ohio, and Nevada where mainly left-leaning and popular ballot initiatives will bring Democrats to the polls. Red Wave: Republicans will lose seats and possibly state senates but hold most of the state houses and a majority of governor’s mansions. Results will be mixed based on candidates and turnout, not President Trump’s national disapproval rating.
- 21. Contact Information 21 Main: 202.558.6300 Mobile: 703.785.9094 Email: mcohen@cohenresearchgroup.com Web: www.cohenresearchgroup.com LinkedIn: http://linkedin.com/in/michaeldavidcohen Michael D. Cohen, Ph.D. Founder & CEO Cohen Research Group @michaelcohen Good luck and have a great conference!
Editor's Notes
- * RCP average of polling completed September 11.
- * RCP average of polling completed September 11.
- Need to change the graph as we get closer to the presentation.
- Retirement data via Quorum https://www.quorum.us/data-driven-insights/2018-house-retirement-tracker/224/ * Ron DeSantis left to run for governor of Florida full-time Bruce Mehlman of Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas has found a new way to measure House Republicans' peril: "vulnerability ratio" (net number of seats at risk vs. number needed to flip). Mehlman, a former lawyer for House Republicans, fears that measure is worse for the majority party than it was in 2006 or 2010, when the House flipped. His explanation: With 38 GOP House seats rated toss-up or worse by Cook Political Report, to only three Dem Seats, 2018 Republicans have net 35 seats at risk, significantly more than they can afford to lose (23). With 152% of Repubicans' margin vulnerable, they're in a more perilous position than Democrats in 2010 (when 123% of their margin was vulnerable) or Republicans in 2006 (119%). The Cook data for each year is from the House ratings closest to Labor Day for each cycle. HISTORICAL HOUSE SEAT GAINS/LOSSES 2010: Obama (D), Democrats lost 63 seats 2002: Bush 43 (R), Republicans gained 6 seats 1994: Clinton (R), Democrats lost 53 seats 1990: Bush 41 (R): Republicans lost 8 seats 1982: Reagan (R): Republicans lost 28 seats 1978: Carter (D): Democrats lost 11 seats Democrats need to add 25 seats to their current total to shift House control away from the GOP this year. In midterm elections held in the first term of each presidency, the party of the incumbent president has lost seats in five of six midterm elections and gained seats in only one election. Performance for the president’s party since 1978 has been an average loss of 26 seats in the House.
- The Cook Political Report https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/governor-race-ratings Ballot Measures https://ballotpedia.org/2018_ballot_measures Toss-Ups (D) CT - Open AK- Walker (I) Toss-Ups (R) FL – Open IA – Reynolds KS – Open ME – Open MI – Open NV – Open OH – Open
- The Cook Political Report https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/governor-race-ratings Ballot Measures https://ballotpedia.org/2018_ballot_measures Toss-Ups (D) CT - Open AK- Walker (I) Toss-Ups (R) FL – Open IA – Reynolds KS – Open ME – Open MI – Open NV – Open OH – Open
- The Cook Political Report https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/governor-race-ratings Ballot Measures https://ballotpedia.org/2018_ballot_measures Toss-Ups (D) CT - Open AK- Walker (I) Toss-Ups (R) FL – Open IA – Reynolds KS – Open ME – Open MI – Open NV – Open OH – Open Ballot Initiatives Florida Amendment 1: Increases the amount of a home's value exempted from property tax Florida Amendment 2: Makes the cap on nonhomestead parcel assessment increases permanent Florida Amendment 4: Restores the right to vote for most people with prior felony convictions upon completion of their sentences Florida Amendment 5: Requires 2/3 vote of legislature to impose or increase tax or fee Florida Amendment 9: Bans offshore oil and gas drilling and vaping in enclosed indoor workplaces Michigan Indirect State Initiative: Legalizes marijuana for recreational use Ohio State Legislature Amendment to Voters: Creates procedures for congressional redistricting (passed May 8) Ohio Issue 1: Drug possession no more than midemeanors Nevada:
- Source: Morning Consult https://morningconsult.com/2018/07/25/americas-most-and-least-popular-governors-2/ Given the “exotic” nature of some Republican nominees, for instance the recent primary winners in Kansas and Minnesota, it could be getting worse.” GOVERNOR (9/24) IOWA: Fred Hubbell (D) over Gov. Kim Reynolds (R): +2 (43-41-L7) FLORIDA: Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +4 (47-43) PENNSYLVANIA: Gov. Tom Wolf (D) over Scott Wagner (R): +19 (55-36) MICHIGAN: Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Bill Schuette (R): +10 (48-38) GOVERNOR (9/20) OHIO: Mike DeWine (R) over Richard Cordray (D): +5 (42-37) FLORIDA: Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +6 (51-45) NEVADA: Adam Laxalt (R) over Steve Sisolak (D): +1 (45-44) ARIZONA: Gov. Doug Ducey (R)over David Garcia (D): +11 (53-42) CALIFORNIA: Gavin Newsom (D) over John Cox (R): +12 (52-40) PENNSYLVANIA: Gov. Tom Wolf (D) over Scott Wagner (R): +12 (52-40) MASSACHUSETTS: Gov. Charlie Baker (R) over Jay Gonzalez (D): +27 (55-28) GOVERNOR (9/19) MARYLAND: Gov. Larry Hogan (R) over Ben Jealous (D): +22 (54-32-G1-L1) WISCONSIN: Tony Evers (D) over Gov. Scott Walker (R): +5 (49-44) MICHIGAN: Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Bill Schuette (R): +9 (50-41) TEXAS: Gov. Greg Abbott (R) over Lupe Valdez (D): +19 (58-39) ARIZONA: Gov. Doug Ducey (R) over David Garcia (D): +3 (49-46) GOVERNOR (9/17) MINNESOTA: Tim Walz (DFL) over Jeff Johnson (R): +9 (45-46) OREGON: Gov. Kate Brown (D) over Knute Buehler (R): +10 (46-36-Other 6) FLORIDA: Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +6 (48-42-Other 2) ARKANSAS: Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) over Jared Henderson (D): +35 (60-25) NEVADA: Steve Sisolak (D) over Adam Laxalt (R): +12 (50-38) GOVERNOR (9/14) ARIZONA: Gov. Doug Ducey (R)over David Garcia (D): +11 (51-40) MINNESOTA: Tim Walz (DFL) over Jeff Johnson (R): +7 (47-40) TENNESSEE: Bill Lee (R) over Karl Dean (D): +20 (55-35) ILLINOIS: J.B. Pritzker (D) over Gov. Bruce Rauner (R): +17 (44-27-Other 11) GOVERNOR (9/13) FLORIDA (FL Chamber): Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +4 (47-43) FLORIDA (SurveyUSA): Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +4 (47-43) GOVERNOR (9/12) NEVADA: Steve Sisolak (D) over Adam Laxalt (R): +2 (37-35-Other 9) GOVERNOR (9/7) TENNESSEE: Bill Lee (R) over Karl Dean (D): +13 (53-40) GEORGIA: Stacey Abrams (D) and Brian Kemp (R): even (45-45) OHIO: Mike DeWine (R) over Richard Cordray (D): +2 (45-43-L6) GOVERNOR (9/4) FLORIDA: Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +2 (47-45) GOVERNOR (8/31) FLORIDA: Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +5 (48-43) KANSAS: Kris Kobach (R) over Laura Kelly (D): +1 (39-38-Ind 9) GOVERNOR (8/29) CONNECTICUT: Ned Lamont (D) over Bob Stefanowski (R): +9 (49-40) GOVERNOR (8/28) WISCONSIN: Tony Evers (D) over Gov. Scott Walker (R): +2 (46-44) GOVERNOR (8/22) FLORIDA (R primary): Ron DeSantis (R) over Adam Putnam (D): +1 (32-31) FLORIDA (D primary): Gwen Graham (D) over Philip Levine (D): +12 (29-17-32) ILLINOIS: J.B. Pritzker (D) over Gov. Bruce Rauner (R): +16 (46-30-L6-C4) MINNESOTA: Tim Walz (DFL) over Jeff Johnson (R): +5 (46-41-2) GOVERNOR (8/22) MICHIGAN: Gretchen Whitmer (D)over Bill Schuette (R): +15 (52-37) GOVERNOR (8/20) WISCONSIN: Tony Evers (D) over Gov. Scott Walker (R): +5 (49-44) GOVERNOR (8/9) MAINE: Shawn Moody (R) and Janet Mills (D): even (39-39-7) GOVERNOR (8/6) OREGON: Knute Buehler (R) over Gov. Kate Brown (D): +1 (43-42)
- Graphic from Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_state_legislatures#/media/File:US_State_Government_Control_Map.svg Note: Nebraska is unicameral. Party Control https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_state_legislatures
- 9/11: The Daily 202: Playing ‘catch-up,’ progressive groups to spend $10 million on digital ads for state legislative races https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2018/09/11/daily-202-playing-catch-up-progressive-groups-to-spend-10-million-on-digital-ads-for-state-legislative-races/5b970b121b326b47ec959539/?utm_term=.dff3dc2ab5ae
- Key governor races in AK, CO, CT, FL, IL, NM, ME, MI, flippable legislatures in AK, CO, FL, NM, ME, NV and ballot issues in FL, MI, OH, NV.
- What to tell clients: First, prep them for these scenarios. You need to get them ready for some changes in state houses and legislatures as well as nationally, which everyone will be interested in as well. Second, make sure that you only put your full faith and credit in polling that is of large sample sizes (at least n=800) and within two weeks of the election. It is likely that there will be a LOT of movement late in the game, which will throw some of the predictions off. Instead, look where money is being spent and where the parties are investing. Governor races will be helpful but there will be some legislators who will be able to hold on in non-wave situations. ALSO: Make sure that you work with pollsters who are sampling from voter files and NOT releasing their data to the public. Private polling, in many cases, is better than what you see in the media. PLUG Lunchtime Politics Daily (!) polling updates and short-form analyses. Charlie Cook August 21, 2018 https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/down-side-winning-white-house “For governors and their state legislative chambers, there isn’t any doubt that it will be a tough night for Republicans. The only question is how tough. Given the “exotic” nature of some Republican nominees, for instance the recent primary winners in Kansas and Minnesota, it could be getting worse.” Sabato’s Crystal Ball: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/a-labor-day-2018-status-report/ Our best guess in the House right now: Democrats are soft favorites to capture the House majority, but there is a wide range of possible outcomes including both the GOP retaining control with a narrow majority as well as the Democrats winning significantly more than the 23 seats they need to gain control. Our best guess in the Senate right now: Republicans remain clear favorites to retain the Senate majority, and they continue to have a path to start next year with more seats than they hold now (51, once the late John McCain is replaced by a Republican appointee). Democrats do have a path to win the Senate majority, particularly if they can eventually pull off upsets in a state or two where we currently favor Republicans, like Tennessee or Texas. Our best guess in the gubernatorial races right now: Democrats will control more governorships at the start of next year than they control now (only 16), and probably more than just a couple more.