Post Primary Briefing Presentation

1. 2014 Election Updates & Insights
2016 Primary Briefing
March 16, 2016
www.ncfef.org
@ncfef
NCFEF

2. 2014 Election Updates & Insights
NCFEF is a non-partisan, nonprofit organization that
conducts impartial, objective research and analysis on
candidates, campaigns, voter attitudes and demographic
changes that impact North Carolina’s political landscape.
Joe Stewart
Executive Director
jstewart@ncfef.org
(919) 614-0520
www.ncfef.org
@ncfef
NCFEF

3. 2014 Election Updates & Insights
Visit www.ncfef.org
2016 Almanac NCFEF Almanac app
Events Reports

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9. Register on
www.ncfef.org
under the
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www.ncfef.org
under the
NCFEF
Research &
Analysis
tab

11. What is the 2016 election ‘about’ … ?
fear … anxiety … anger
Certain
Uncertainty

12. Factors in North Carolina’s political landscape

13. What were we expecting?
þ Lots of attention from Presidential candidates
¥ Presidential excitement mattered, but OH & FL
‘hail Mary’ for Kasich & Rubio overshadowed
þ Up-ballot voter ’anger’ might impact down-ballot
¥ Not so much
þ Significance of GOP infighting
¥ To be determined
@NCFEF

14. @NCFEF2016 Early Voting

15. 2016 Election – Outcome Overview
Votes Cast 2,300,955
TO (‘12=34.66%) 35.34%
Presidential
GOP
TRUMP CRUZ KASICH RUBIO
40.24% 36.77% 12.68% 7.71%
Presidential
DEM
CLINTON SANDERS
54.59% 40.76%
Presidential LIB
JOHNSON NO PREF
38.1% 36.5%
Connect NC 65.56% YES 34.44% NO

17. American Samoa 3/22/16 9
Arizona 3/22/16 58
Utah 3/22/16 40
North Dakota 4/1/16 28
Wisconsin 4/5/16 42
New York 4/19/16 95
ConnecBcut 4/26/16 28
Delaware 4/26/16 16
Maryland 4/26/16 38
Pennsylvania 4/26/16 71
Rhode Island 4/26/16 19
GOP DELEGATES Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Carson
1,237
to Win
2,472
Total
621 396 168 138 8
Indiana 5/3/16 57
Nebraska 5/10/16 36
West Virginia 5/10/16 34
Oregon 5/17/16 28
Washington 5/24/16 44
California 6/7/16 172
Montana 6/7/16 27
New Jersey 6/7/16 51
New Mexico 6/7/16 24
South Dakota 6/7/16 29

18. Surfing Theory of Politics
@NCFEF

19. 2016 Primary: US Senate
Paul
Wright
Larry
Holmquist
Richard
Burr (I)
Greg
Brannon
@NCFEF
61.4% 8.5% 4.9% 25.2%
þ

20. 2016 Primary: US Senate
@NCFEF
Chris
Rey
Deborah
Ross
Kevin
Griffin
Ernest T.
Reeves
9.4% 16.5% 62.4% 11.7%
Sean Haugh
þ

21. NC Congressional Districts
Filing = March 16 – 25
Primary = June 7

22. CVB for NC SENATE 34 REP – 16 DEM
STRONG DEM (16) COMPETITIVE (4) LEAN REP (6) STRONG REP (24)
28
Robinson
Guilford
21 Clark
Hoke
19
Meredith
Cumberland
8
Rabon
Brunswick
50
Davis
Macon
24
Gunn
Alamance
39
Rucho (NR)
Mecklenburg
40
Waddell*
Mecklenburg
5
Davis
Greene
1
Cook
Beaufort
9
Lee*
New Hanover
46
Daniel
Burke
47
Hise
Mitchell
31
Krawiec
Forsyth
38
Ford
Mecklenburg
13
Smith*
Robeson
25
McInnis*
Richmond
15
Alexander*
Wake
27
Wade
Guilford
2
Sanderson
Pamlico
44
Cur]s
Lincoln
14
Blue
Wake
23
Foushee
Orange
18
Barefoot
Wake
10
B. Jackson
Sampson
11
Newton
(NR)
Wilson
45
Soucek (NR)
Watauga
35
Tucker
Union
20
McKissick
Durham
22
Woodard
Durham
12
Rabin
Harnea
6
Brown
Onslow
48
Apodaca (NR)
Henderson
42
Wells*
Catawba
4
Bryant
Nash
37
J. Jackson
Mecklenburg
17
Barringer
Wake
41
Tarte
Mecklenburg
36
Hartsell (NR)
Cabarrus
33
Bingham (NR)
Davidson
3
Smith-
Ingram*
Edgecombe
16
Stein (NR)
Wake
26
Berger
Rockingham
43
Harrington
Gaston
30
Randleman
Wilkes
32
Lowe*
Forsyth
49
Van
Duyn*
Buncombe
*freshman
NR = not running in 2016
7
Pate
Wayne
34 Brock
Davie
29
Tillman
Randolph

23. 9 SENATE REPUBLICAN WINNERS
DIST CVB CANDIDATE INC LBR
SD 06 SR Harry Brown 95.0
SD 07 SR Louis M. Pate Jr. 95.0
SD 08 LR Bill Rabon 85.9
SD 10 LR Brent Jackson 95.0
SD 26 SR Phil Berger 95.0
SD 29 SR Jerry W. Tillman 90.0
SD 34 SR Andrew C Brock 85.8
SD 42 SR Andy Wells 90.0
SD 43 SR Kathy Harrington 90.0
4 SENATE DEMOCRAT WINNERS
DIST CVB CANDIDATE INC LBR
SD 03 SD Erica Smith-Ingram 47.8
SD 05 SD Don Davis 48.3
SD 14 SD Dan Blue 55.0
SD 32 SD Paul Lowe Jr. 45.0

24. SENATE INCUMBENTS = GENERAL ONLY
DIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR INCUMBENT CHALLENGER
SD 01 CO 1,165 80.0 èBill Cook Brownie Futrell
SD 02 SR 3,151 90.0 Norman Sanderson Dorothea White
SD 09 LR 13,579 90.0 Michael Lee Andrew Barnhill
SD 12 LR 15,450 90.0 Ronald Rabin Susan Byerly
SD 15 LR 16,411 65.0 John Alexander
Laurel Deegan-Fricke
Brad Hessell
SD 17 LR 27,427 80.0 Tamara Barringer
Susan Evans
Susan Hogarth
SD 18 CO 16,934 90.0 Chad Barefoot Gil Johnson
SD 19 CO 5,560 78.9 Wesley Meredith Toni Morris

25. SENATE INCUMBENTS = GENERAL ONLY
DIST CVB POP +/-
INC
LBR
INCUMBENT CHALLENGER
SD 24 SR 4,950 95.0 Rick Gunn John Thorpe
SD 25 CO -2,603 90.0 Tom McInnis
Dannie
Montgomery
SD 27 SR 9,258 90.0 Trudy Wade Michael Garrea
SD 30 SR -2,189 90.0 Shirley Randleman Michael Holleman
SD 41 SR 28,598 90.0 Jeff Tarte
Jonathan Hudson
Chris Cole
SD 46 SR -2,428 80.5 Warren Daniel Anne Fischer
SD 47 SR -1,473 85.8 Ralph Hise Mary Jane Boyd
SD 50 SR 865 87.5 Jim Davis Jane Hipps

26. SENATE INCUMBENTS = GENERAL ONLY
DIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR INCUMBENT CHALLENGER
SD 13 SD -553 54.2 Jane W. Smith Danny Earl (JR) Bria
SD 20 SD 9,597 32.5 Floyd B. McKissick, Jr. Barbara Howe
SD 22 SD 14,891 52.3 Mike Woodard Greg Douceae
SD 23 SD 11,812 37.2 Valerie P. Foushee Mary Lopez Carter
SD 28 SD 7,432 28.6 Gladys A. Robinson Devin R. King
SD 37 SD 15,790 38.2 Jeff Jackson Bob Diamond
SD 49 SD 8,910 45.0 Terry Van Duyn William Meredith

27. SENATE INCUMBENTS = PRIMARY
DIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR INCUMBENT RESULT CHALLENGER
SD 31 SR 5,819 85.8
Joyce Krawiec (I) þ
Dempsey Brewer
Peter AnBnozzi
62.3%
27.3%
10.4%
SD 35 SR 16,584 90.8
Tommy Tucker (I) þ
MaX Daly
61.6%
38.4%
SD 44 SR 8,165 90.0
David L. Cur]s (I) þ
Chris Carney
51.1%
Nic Haag
49.9%

28. SENATE INCUMBENTS = PRIMARY
DIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR INCUMBENT RESULT CHALLENGER
SD 04 SD -3,495 45.0
Angela R. Bryant (I) þ
James Mills
81.2%
Richard Scoa
18.8%
SD 21 SD 5,996 77.5
Ben Clark (I) þ
Eronomy Smith
Naveed Aziz
49.9%
Dan Travieso 5.9%
44.2%
SD 38 SD 22,663 70.0
Joel Ford (I) þ
Roderick Davis
52.1%
Richard Riveae
47.9%
SD 40 SD 12,219 35.8
Joyce Waddell (I) þ
Nasif Majeed
64.6% Marguerite
Cooke 35.4%

29. OPEN SEAT RACES – NC SENATE
DIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR CANDIDATES RESULTS
SD 11
NEWTON (R)
SR
4,638
79.4
Benton Sawrey 48.4%
Rick Horner þ 51.6%
Albert Pacer 100%
SD 16
STEIN (D)
SD 17,905
40.0
Jay Chaudhuri þ 63.1%
Ellis Hankins 36.9%
Eric Weaver 100%
SD 33
BINGHAM (R)
SR
791
85.8
Cathy Dunn þ 40.1%
Joe D. Kennedy 27.7%
Eddie Gallimore 32.2%
Jim Beall Graham 100%
SD 36
HARTSELL (R)
SR 14,784 85.5
Andrew W. Platek 34.9%
Robert Brown þ 65.1%
Amy Blake 21.4%
Parish MoffiX 11.6%
Paul R. Newton þ 37.0%

30. OPEN SEAT RACES – NC SENATE
DIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR CANDIDATES RESULTS
SD 39
RUCHO (R)
SR
13,641 83.0
Lloyd Scher 100%
Dan Bishop 100%
SD 45
SOUCEK (R)
SR -519 85.0
Deanna Ballard þ 52.9%
Ken Boham 47.1%
Art Sherwood 100%
SD 48
APODACA
(R)
SR 7,675
95.0
Chuck Edwards þ 56.2%
Dennis JusBce 9.9%
Lisa Carpenter
Baldwin
33.9%
Norman Bossert 100%

31. STRONG DEM (37) LEAN REP (14) STRONG REP (59)
29
L. Hall
Durham
114
Fisher
Buncombe
66
Goodman
Richmond
118
Presnell
Yancey
55
Brody
Union
86
Blackwell
Burke
110
Hastings
Gaston
96
Adams*
Catawba
106
Cunningham
Mecklenburg
42
Lucas
Cumberland
39
Jackson
Wake
49
Pendleton*
Wake
14
Cleveland
Onslow
82
Pittman
Cabarrus
77
Warren
Rowan
69
Arp
Union
102
Carney
Mecklenburg
5
Hunter
Hertford
50
Meyer
Orange
9
Murphy**
Pitt
36
Dollar
Wake
15
Shepard
Onslow
98
Bradford*
Mecklenburg
13
McElraft
Carteret
31
Michaux
Durham
32
Baskerville (NR)
Vance LEAN DEM (2)
45
Szoka
Cumberland
40
Avila
Wake
109
Bumgardner
Gaston
91
Hall**
Stokes
81
Brown (NR)
Davidson
33
Gill
Wake
72
Hanes
Forsyth
54 Reives
Lee
63
Ross
Alamance
37
Stam (NR)
Wake
26
Daughtry (NR)
Johnston
74
Conrad
Forsyth
87
Robinson
Caldwell
99
Moore
Mecklenburg
100
Cotham (NR)
Mecklenburg
44
Richardson**
Cumberland
53
Lewis
Harnett
62
Blust
Guilford
16
Millis
Pender
104
Bishop (NR)
Mecklenburg
76
Ford
Rowan
38
Lewis Holley
Wake
23
Willingham*
Edgecombe COMP (8)
93
Jordan
Ashe
111
Moore
Cleveland
83
Johnson
Cabarrus
10
J. Bell
Wayne
95
Fraley
Iredell
60
Brockman*
Guilford
47
Graham
Robeson
119
Queen
Haywood 1
Steinburg
Chowan
75
Lambeth
Forsyth
19
Davis
New Hanover
84
R. Turner
Iredell
89
Setzer
Catawba
58
Johnson*
Guilford
30
Luebke
Durham
2
Yarborough*
Person
65
Jones
Rockingham
88
Bryan
Mecklenburg
4
Dixon
Duplin
17
Iler
Brunswick
68
Horn
Union
107
Alexander
Mecklenburg
43
Floyd
Cumberland
22
Brisson
Bladen
3
Speciale
Craven
25
Collins
Nash
59
Hardister
Guilford
108
Torbett
Gaston
94
Elmore
Wilkes
56
Insko
Orange
21
L. Bell
Sampson
92
Jeter
Mecklenburg
51
Salmon*
Harnett
103
Brawley
Mecklenburg
61
Faircloth
Guilford
105
Schaffer (NR)
Mecklenburg
79
Howard
Davie
24
Farmer-
Butterfield
Wilson
7
Richardson
Franklin
115
Ager*
Buncombe
64
Riddell
Alamance
Catlin (NR)
New Hanover
52
Boles
Moore
97
Saine
Lincoln
48
Pierce
Scotland
18
Hamilton
New Hanover
6
Tine (NR)
Dare
116
B. Turner*
Buncombe
Hager
Rutherford
117
McGrady
Henderson
85
Dobson
McDowell
71
Terry
Forsyth
34
G. Martin
Wake
8
S. Martin
Wilson
35
Malone
Wake
Whitmire (NR)
Transylvania
120
West (NR)
Cherokee
73
Zachary*
Yadkin
57
Harrison
Guilford
12
Graham
Lenoir
41
Adcock*
Wake
28
Langdon (NR)
Johnston
80
Watford
Davidson
27
Wray
Northampton
11
D. Hall
Wake
*freshman **appointed
NR = not running in 2016
90
Stevens
Surry
70
Hurley
Randolph
101
Earle
Mecklenburg
46
Waddell (NR)
Columbus
67
Burr
Stanly
78
McNeill
Randolph
CVB for NC HOUSE 74 REP – 45 DEM – 1 UNA

32. 23 HOUSE REPUBLICAN WINNERS
DISTRICT CVB INCUMBENT 2015 LBR
HD 004 SR Jimmy Dixon 90.0
HD 014 SR George G. Cleveland 75.0
HD 019 SR Ted Davis, Jr. 90.0
HD 061 SR John Faircloth 90.0
HD 062 SR John M. Blust 79.2
HD 063 LR Stephen Ross 92.5
HD 064 LR Dennis Riddell 90.0
HD 068 SR Craig Horn 85.5
HD 075 SR Donny C Lambeth 90.0
HD 076 SR Carl Ford 76.7
HD 078 SR Allen McNeill 85.8
HD 079 SR Julia Craven Howard 80.9
HD 080 SR Sam Waiord 90.0
HD 085 SR Josh Dobson 95.0
HD 089 SR Mitchell Setzer 77.5
HD 096 SR Jay Adams 85.8
HD 097 SR Jason R. Saine 90.5
HD 098 SR John R. Bradford III 90.0
HD 108 SR John A. Torbea 95.0
HD 110 SR Kelly Has]ngs 90.0
HD 111 SR Tim Moore 95.0
HD 112 SR Mike Hager 95.0
HD 117 SR Chuck McGrady 80.8

33. 19 HOUSE DEMOCRAT WINNERS
DISTRICT CVB CANDIDATE 2015 LBR
HD 005 SD Howard J. Hunter III 43.2
HD 012 SD George Graham 67.5
HD 023 SD Shelly Willingham 31.1
HD 029 SD Larry D. Hall 24.1
HD 031 SD Mickey Michaux, Jr. 35.8
HD 039 SD Darren Jackson 59.2
HD 042 SD Marvin W. Lucas 73.0
HD 043 SD Elmer Floyd 66.7
HD 048 SD Garland E. Pierce 49.2
HD 056 SD Verla Insko 19.1
HD 057 SD Pricey Harrison 12.0
HD 060 SD Cecil Brockman 67.5
HD 066 SD Ken Goodman 92.5
HD 071 SD Evelyn Terry 38.2
HD 072 SD Ed Hanes Jr. 80.9
HD 099 SD Rodney W. Moore 80.0
HD 102 SD Becky Carney 63.3
HD 106 SD Carla Cunningham 47.3
HD 114 SD Susan C. Fisher 14.5

34. HOUSE INCUMBENTS = GENERAL ONLY
DIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR INCUMBENT CHALLENGER
HD 002 COMP -1,605 85 Larry Yarborough Joe Parish
HD 008 COMP 1,861 90 Susan Mar]n Charlie Paa Farris
HD 041 COMP 15,176 54.2 Gale Adcock Chris Shoffner
HD 115 COMP 3,778 50 èJohn Ager Frank Moretz
HD 119 COMP 1,119 48.3 Joe Sam Queen Mike Clampia
HD 044 LD 1,998 50 Billy Richardson Jim Arp
HD 054 LD 5,531 50 Robert T. Reives II Wesley Seawell
HD 001 LR 768 92.5 Bob Steinburg Sam Davis
HD 003 LR 368 71.7 Michael Speciale Marva Fisher Baldwin
HD 035 LR 14,184 69.2 Chris Malone Terrence Everia
HD 045 LR 2,902 90 John Szoka Roberta Waddle
HD 049 LR 2,346 66.8 Gary Pendleton
Cynthia Ball
David Ulmer
HD 065 LR -2,516 85.8 Bert Jones H. Keith Duncan
HD 118 LR 508 85.8 Michele D. Presnell Rhonda C. Schandevel
HD 051 LR 5,706 76.7 èBrad Salmon John Sauls
HD 116 LR 5,296 63.3 Brian Turner Kay Olsen

35. HOUSE INCUMBENTS = GENERAL ONLY
DIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR INCUMBENT CHALLENGER
HD 010 SR 8,137 92.5 John R. Bell Evelyn Paul
HD 013 SR 2,265 95.0 Pat McElrak Rodney Alexander
HD 015 SR 811 90.0 Phillip Shepard Dan Whiaen
HD 016 SR 7,204 81.7 Chris W. Millis Steve Unger
HD 025 SR 830 85.5 Jeff Collins Jim Lee
HD 040 SR 13,125 73.9 Marilyn Avila Joe John
HD 055 SR 683 85.8 Mark Brody Kim Hargea
HD 059 SR 5,676 81.7 Jon Hardister Scoa Jones
HD 069 SR 6,387 90.8 Dean Arp Gordon Daniels
HD 070 SR 605 85.8 Pat B. Hurley Lee Bohnsack
HD 074 SR 1,963 85.8 Debra Conrad Marilyn Baker
HD 086 SR -161 85.5 Hugh Blackwell Tim Barnsback
HD 088 SR 1,353 92.5 Rob Bryan Mary Belk
HD 090 SR -737 90.0 Sarah Stevens Vera Smith Reynolds
HD 094 SR -729 85.0 Jeffrey Elmore Michael Lentz
HD 103 SR 6,714 90.5 Bill Brawley Rochelle Rivas
HD 109 SR 1,476 77.5 Dana Bumgardner Susan Maxon

36. HOUSE INCUMBENTS = GENERAL ONLY
DIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR INCUMBENT CHALLENGER
HD 007 SD -72 44.2 Bobbie J. Richardson William D. Hancock II
HD 011 SD 5,646 54.2 Duane Hall Brian Lewis
HD 018 SD 4,737 68.9 Susi Hamilton Gerald Benton
HD 030 SD 11,548 11.3 Paul Luebke Elissa Fuchs
HD 034 SD 2,625 29.1 Grier Mar]n Bill Morris
HD 038 SD 9,300 35.8 Yvonne Lewis Holley Olen Watson III
HD 050 SD 6,127 51.8 Graig R. Meyer Rod Chaney

37. HOUSE INCUMBENTS = PRIMARY ONLY
DIST CVB POP +/-
INC
LBR
INCUMBENT RESULT
HD 021 SD -8 62.5
Larry M. Bell (I) þ
ScoXy Smith
85.5%
14.5%
HD 022 CO 176 90.0
William Brisson (I) þ
Ben Snyder
53.5%
46.5%
HD 024 SD 1,765 42.7
Jean Farmer-Buaerfield (I) þ
Kandie Smith
61.9%
38.1%
HD 027 SD -3,357 80.0
Michael H. Wray (I) þ
Franklin Williams Jr.
52.6%
47.4%
HD 033 SD 8,249 45.0
Rosa U Gill (I) þ
Bernard Allen III
Shirley Hicks
65.5%
12.6%
21.9%
HD 047 SD 509 55.8
Charles Graham (I) þ
Randall Jones
58.0%
42.0%

38. HOUSE INCUMBENTS = PRIMARY
DIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR INCUMBENT RESULT CHALLENGER
HD 058 SD 1,995 52.3
Ralph C. Johnson (I)
Amos Quick þ
28.6%
71.4%
HD 101 SD 10,098 45.0
Beverly Miller Earle (I) þ
Steven Jones
78.1%
Jus]n
Dunn
20.9%
HD 107 SD 8,900 58.3
Kelly Alexander (I) þ
Robert Blok
90.5%
9.5%

39. HOUSE INCUMBENTS = PRIMARY
DIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR INCUMBENT RESULT CHALLENGER
HD 017 SR 7,812 90.0
Frank Iler (I) þ
Marion Davis
67.8%
Charles Warren
32.2%
HD 036 SR 6,399 85.8
Nelson Dollar (I) þ
Mark Villee
55.8% Jennifer Ferrell
Brian Irving 44.2%
HD 052 SR 4,640 90.0
Jamie Boles (I) þ
John Zumwalt
53.7%
46.3%
HD 053 LR 7,740 90.5
David R. Lewis (I) þ
Chuck Levorse
78.6%
Jon Blum
21.4%
HD 067 SR -472 81.7
Jus]n P. Burr (I) þ
Lane Burris
50.9%
Carson R. Snyder
49.1%
HD 073 SR -437 95.0
Lee Zachary (I) þ
Dwight Shook
51.5%
48.5%
HD 077 SR 140 81.7
Harry Warren (I) þ
Andrew Poston
71.4%
28.6%

40. HOUSE INCUMBENTS = PRIMARY
DIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR INCUMBENT RESULT CHALLENGER
HD 017 SR 7,812 90.0
Frank Iler (I) þ
Marion Davis
67.8%
Charles Warren
32.2%
HD 036 SR 6,399 85.8
Nelson Dollar (I) þ
Mark Villee
55.8% Jennifer Ferrell
Brian Irving 44.2%
HD 052 SR 4,640 90.0
Jamie Boles (I) þ
John Zumwalt
53.7%
46.3%
HD 053 LR 7,740 90.5
David R. Lewis (I) þ
Chuck Levorse
78.6%
Jon Blum
21.4%
HD 067 SR -472 81.7
Jus]n P. Burr (I) þ
Lane Burris
50.9%
Carson R. Snyder
49.1%
HD 073 SR -437 95.0
Lee Zachary (I) þ
Dwight Shook
51.5%
48.5%
HD 077 SR 140 81.7
Harry Warren (I) þ
Andrew Poston
71.4%
28.6%

41. HOUSE INCUMBENTS = PRIMARY
DIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR INCUMBENT RESULT CHALLENGER
HD 082 SR 9,031 69.2
Larry G. Piaman (I) þ
Michael Fischer
52.9% Earle
Schecter 47.1%
HD 083 SR 4,343 90.0
Linda P. Johnson (I) þ
Nathan Stone
61.6% Jeremy
Hachen 38.4%
HD 084 SR 1,890 90.0
Rena W. Turner (I) þ
Kirk Sherrill
63.8% John Wayne
Kahl 36.2%
HD 087 SR -1,545 87.5
George S. Robinson (I)
Des]n Hall þ
40.3%
59.7%
HD 092 CO 15,160 86.7
èCharles Jeter (I) þ
Tom Davis
50.2%
Chaz Beasley
49.8%
HD 093 LR 1,326 81.7
Jonathan C. Jordan (I) þ
Lew Hendricks
73.9%
Sue Counts
26.1%
HD 095 SR 5,348 95.0
John A. Fraley (I) þ
David W. Thompson
68.5%
31.5%

42. OPEN SEAT RACES – NC HOUSE
DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INC LBR CANDIDATES RESULT
èHD 006
TINE (U)
CO 238 90.0
Judy JusBce 28.2%
Warren Judge þ 71.8%
Ashley Woolard 36.7%
Beverly Boswell þ 39.3%
HD 020
CATLIN (R)
SR 6,747 78.9
Holly Grange þ 62.0%
Tammy Covil 38.0%
HD 026
DAUGHTRY (R)
SR 8,091 95.0
Dennis Nielsen 40.4%
Donna McDowell White þ 59.6%
Rich Nixon þ 100%
HD 028
LANGDON (R)
SR 4,368 85.8
Jimmie M. Massengill 49.6%
Patricia Oliver þ 50.4%
Gregory A. Dail 8.1%
Larry C. Strickland þ 50.1%
Tony Braswell 41.8%
HD 032
B’VILLE (D)
SD -1,692 40.8
Gary Lamont Miles Sr 32.7%
Terry Garrison þ 67.3%

43. OPEN SEAT RACES – NC HOUSE
DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INC LBR CANDIDATES RESULT
HD 37
STAM (R)
SR 12,046 85.8
Linda Hunt-Williams 100%
Jonathan Graham 100%
Robert Rose 100%
èHD 46
WADDELL (D)
SD -1,093 85.0
Brenden Jones 100%
Tim Benton 100%
Thomas (Tom) Howell Jr 100%
HD 81
R. BROWN (R)
SR 663 80.0
Larry W. Poas þ 52.3%
Sharon Phillips Pearce 20.0%
Tyler Lohr Forrest 27.7%
HD 100
COTHAM (D)
SD 1,692 59.3
Billy Maddalon 46.7%
John Autry þ 53.3%
HD 104
BISHOP (R)
SR 1,417 85.0
Andy Dulin 100%
Peter Noris 100%
HD 105
SCHAFFER (R)
SR 12,855 85.0
Scoa Stone þ 52.2%
Tim Morgan 47.8%
Connie Green-Johnson 100%

44. OPEN SEAT RACES – NC HOUSE
DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INC LBR CANDIDATES RESULTS
HD 113
WHITMIRE (R)
SR 757 90.0
Cody Henson þ 64.7%
Coty James Ferguson 35.3%
Maureen Mahan Copelof 100%
HD 120
WEST (R)
SR -573 95.0
EllioX J. Southworth 26.1%
Kevin Corbin þ 73.9%
*HD 9
B. BROWN (R)
LR 3,747 90.0
Brian Farkas þ 61.8%
Walter E. Gaskins 38.2%
Greg Murphy* 100%
*HD 91
H’WAY (R)
SR 1,050 85.8
Ira (Bubba) Tilley 25.6%
Kyle Hall* þ 43.8%
Robert Knight 30.6%
Eugene Russell 100%

45. 2016 Election – Outcome Overview
SR LR COMP LD SD
NC House
74 – 45 – 1 59 14
12R 2D
8
3R 4D 1U
2 37
Winners 28R 2R 1D 29D
INC GEN 23R 9R 2D 6
3R 3D
2D 8D
NC Senate
34 – 16 24 6 4R 0 16
Winners 9R 2R 4D
INC GEN 9R 4R 4R 11D

46. 2016 Election: Likely Partisan Outcome
Current Partisan
Count
Strong
REP
Lean
REP
COMP
Lean
DEM
Strong
DEM
NC House
74 – 45 – 1 59 14 8
3R 4D 1U
2 37
NC House
Jan 2017
71
PROB
2
LIKELY
4
TOSS UP
4
LIKELY
39
PROB
NC Senate
34 – 16 24 6 4
4 GOP
0 16
NC Senate
Jan 2017
26
PROB
7
LIKELY
1
TOSS UP
0
LIKELY
16
PROB
@NCFEF

47. Statewide Executive Branch
GOV
Roy Cooper – 68.8%
Ken Spaulding – 32.2%
Pat McCrory – 81.8%
Robert Brawley – 10.6%
Charles K. Moss – 7.7%
Lon Cecil
LTGOV
Linda Coleman – 51.1%
Holly Jones – 28.8%
Robert E. Wilson – 10.5%
Ronald Newton – 9.6%
Dan Forest
JJ
Summerell
AGOPEN
Josh Stein –53.5%
Marcus Williams – 46.5%
Buck Newton – 54.9%
Jim O’Neill – 45.1%
INS
Wayne Goodwin
Mike Causey – 41.2%
Joe McLaughlin – 32.9%
Ron Pierce – 25.9%

48. Statewide Executive Branch
AUD
Beth Wood Chuck Stuber
SOS
Elaine Marshall
Michael LaPaglia – 61.6%
A.J. Daoud – 38.4%
LAB
Charles Meeker – 56.6%
Mazie Ferguson – 43.4%
Cherie Berry
AGR
Walter Smith
Steve Troxler – 68.8%
Andy Steven – 31.2%
SPI
June Atkinson – 79.8%
Henry Pankey – 20.2%
Mark Johnson – 53.4%
Rosemary Stein – 32.8%
J. Wesley Sills – 13.8%
STOPEN
Dan Blue III – 58.5%
Ron Ellmer – 41.5%
Dale Folwell

49. Statewide Executive Branch
GOV
Roy Cooper (68.8%)
Pat McCrory
(81.8%)
Lon Cecil
LTGOV
Linda Coleman (51.1%) Dan Forest JJ Summerell
AG
OPEN
Josh Stein (53.5%) Buck Newton (54.9%)
INS
Wayne Goodwin Mike Causey (41.2%)
AUD
Beth Wood Chuck Stuber
SOS
Elaine Marshall Michael LaPaglia (61.6%)
LAB
Charles Meeker (56.6%) Cherie Berry
AGR
Walter Smith Steve Troxler (68.8%)
SPI
June Atkinson (79.8%) Mark Johnson (53.4%)
ST
OPEN
Dan Blue III (58.5%) Dale Folwell

51. NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Governor
Cooper
Victory
Strong US
Senate
Candidate
DEM Prez
Candidate
Fights for
NC
Suburbs =
Domestic
Issues
McCrory
Victory
Voters
Positive on
NC
Economy
Parity in
Outside $
No GOP
Fracture
over Prez
@NCFEF
2012: 50.6% 48.8% 1.0%

52. 2016 Election: State Supreme Court
Voters will cast their ballot to to
determine whether to retain
Justice Robert H. Edmunds
(Guilford)
@NCFEF

53. Linda H. Stephens - D
1st Term (Wake)
Phil Berger, Jr.
Orange - REP
Bob Hunter - R
1st Term [2014] (Guilford)
Abe Jones
Wake – DEM
Richard Dietz - R
1st Term (Forsyth)
Vince Rozier
Wake – DEM
Valerie Zachary - R
1st Term [2015] (Yadkin)
Rickye McKoy-Mitchell
Mecklenburg – DEM
2016 Election: Court of Appeals
@NCFEF

54. What to watch?
þ How GOP nomination process plays out
¥ Impact on ‘enthusiasm gap’
þ If Trump is the GOP nominee, how does that
impact NC’s GOP candidates
¥ May put NC (more) in play
þ Significance of GOP infighting
¥ Within GOP House Caucus, within GOP HQ

55. What to watch?
þ Does US Senate race become a target
¥ Don’t think so, except that NC = purple
þ Will resources matter most in Legislative races
¥ Yes
þ Will a strong GOP slate for Council of State help
up-ballot candidates?
¥ Couldn’t hurt

56. 2014 Election Updates & Insights
Questions?
Joe Stewart
Executive Director
jstewart@ncfef.org
(919) 614-0520
www.ncfef.org
@ncfef
NCFEF