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Future of Spectrum Management - Presentation by Dean Bubley, Brussels June 2015

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Presentation on future issues around spectrum management & wireless business models. Covers WiFi, 5G, role of mobile operators, LTE-U & related topics

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Future of Spectrum Management - Presentation by Dean Bubley, Brussels June 2015

  1. 1. The Future of Spectrum Management Avoiding a service monoculture Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis June 2015 dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean
  2. 2. About Disruptive Analysis  Tech/telecom analyst house & strategic consulting firm  Cross-silo, contrarian, independent  Forecasting & anti-forecasting  Consultant & advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors  Speaker at 30+ events per year in Europe, US & Asia  Reports on Mobile Broadband, WebRTC etc  Not a day-to-day spectrum specialist Twitter @disruptivedean Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015
  3. 3. Regulation is good at dealing with….  Standalone services  Well-defined products  Stable standards  National / regional  Service providers  Homogeneous  Similar models  Few in number  Commercial / Govt Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015
  4. 4. Regulation is bad at dealing with….  Generalised capabilities  Fluid products/features  No/changing standards  Non-geographic  Capability providers  Diverse stakeholders  Non-service models  Many players  New motivations Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015 FREE! Cloud- based Mashups P2P & Crowd- sourced X-as-a- Feature Distributed
  5. 5. Different domains, similar challenges Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015 Regulated, predictable, important, inflexible tax/fee-generating Services Un/light-regulated, unpredictable, innovative, disruptive Capabilities Telecom Services Telcos: Voice telephony & SMS Internet Capabilities “OTTs”, apps, social. Dev & web community Spectrum for Services Mobile Broadband Broadcast & Satellite Spectrum for Capabilities WiFi, short-range, PMSE, IoT, private cellular, govt
  6. 6. Diversity vs. Monoculture Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015 Efficient & Productive Diversity & Future Optionality
  7. 7. IMT intended for “services”, with all that implies Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015
  8. 8. Not everything wireless is a subscription model Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015 AmenitySubscription service Owned outright Peer-to-peer Sponsored Transactional Also: Wireless-as- a-feature
  9. 9. SPs are not the only wireless stakeholders Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015 User Mobile operator Venues Fixed/cable Things OS / OEMEnterprises Broadcasters Internet Automotive City Brand Developers
  10. 10. Unexpected routes to digitalisation of society Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015
  11. 11. Mobile broadband forecasts over-cooked?  Much growth driven by new (high-end) users & devices  IoT forecasts attempt to create self-fulfilling prophecies  Assume “service” & IMT-type “operator” model is optimal & ubiquitous Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 Subscriber numbers Data per subscriber Smartphone 3G/4G data traffic growth Source: Ericsson, Disruptive Analysis Dominated by subs growth Unrealistic view of usage growth in prepay-dominated market? 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Postpaid Prepaid Mobile data subs, year-end, m Source: Disruptive Analysis Mobile Broadband report Mostly fixed monthly quotas Incentivised to use less data?
  12. 12. The vision for 5G… Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015 Ultra-fast mobile broadband Critical & low latency Super- dense IoT • All-embracing • Many use-cases • Strong arguments for more spectrum, but… • Unintended consequences? • Pre-defines model & stakeholders? • Extends oligopolies to adjacent mkts? • WiFi offload / LTE-U / LAA as example?
  13. 13. Conclusion: The next 10 years  Mobile Broadband “service” model a huge success…  … but not the only way forward  Innovation comes from diversity, not monoculture  Spectrum regulation decoupled from downstream innovators  2nd-order stakeholder groups proliferating for wireless  Risk of unfair competition between models not just companies  Beware of assumptions & unintended consequences  Spectrum Mgmt 2025 must be more than just “services” Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015
  14. 14. Dean Bubley www.disruptive-analysis.com disruptivewireless.blogspot.com @disruptivedean information@disruptive-analysis.com Skype:disruptiveanalysis Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015

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