Future of Spectrum Management - Presentation by Dean Bubley, Brussels June 2015

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Presentation on future issues around spectrum management & wireless business models. Covers WiFi, 5G, role of mobile operators, LTE-U & related topics

Technology

The Future of Spectrum Management
Avoiding a service monoculture
Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
June 2015
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean

About Disruptive Analysis
 Tech/telecom analyst house & strategic consulting firm
 Cross-silo, contrarian, independent
 Forecasting & anti-forecasting
 Consultant & advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors
 Speaker at 30+ events per year in Europe, US & Asia
 Reports on Mobile Broadband, WebRTC etc
 Not a day-to-day spectrum specialist
Twitter @disruptivedean Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015

Regulation is good at dealing with….
 Standalone services
 Well-defined products
 Stable standards
 National / regional
 Service providers
 Homogeneous
 Similar models
 Few in number
 Commercial / Govt
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015

Regulation is bad at dealing with….
 Generalised capabilities
 Fluid products/features
 No/changing standards
 Non-geographic
 Capability providers
 Diverse stakeholders
 Non-service models
 Many players
 New motivations
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015
FREE!
Cloud-
based
Mashups
P2P & Crowd-
sourced
X-as-a-
Feature
Distributed

Different domains, similar challenges
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015
Regulated, predictable,
important, inflexible
tax/fee-generating
Services
Un/light-regulated,
unpredictable,
innovative, disruptive
Capabilities
Telecom Services
Telcos: Voice
telephony & SMS
Internet Capabilities
“OTTs”, apps, social.
Dev & web community
Spectrum for Services
Mobile Broadband
Broadcast & Satellite
Spectrum for Capabilities
WiFi, short-range, PMSE,
IoT, private cellular, govt

Diversity vs. Monoculture
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015
Efficient & Productive Diversity & Future Optionality

IMT intended for “services”, with all that implies
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015

Not everything wireless is a subscription model
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015
AmenitySubscription
service
Owned
outright
Peer-to-peer
Sponsored Transactional Also: Wireless-as-
a-feature

Unexpected routes to digitalisation of society
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015

Mobile broadband forecasts over-cooked?
 Much growth driven by new (high-end) users & devices
 IoT forecasts attempt to create self-fulfilling prophecies
 Assume “service” & IMT-type “operator” model is optimal & ubiquitous
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
Subscriber numbers
Data per subscriber
Smartphone 3G/4G data traffic growth
Source: Ericsson, Disruptive Analysis
Dominated by
subs growth
Unrealistic view of
usage growth in
prepay-dominated
market?
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
'12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
Postpaid
Prepaid
Mobile data subs, year-end, m
Source: Disruptive Analysis Mobile Broadband report
Mostly fixed
monthly quotas
Incentivised to
use less data?

The vision for 5G…
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015
Ultra-fast
mobile
broadband
Critical &
low
latency
Super-
dense
IoT
• All-embracing
• Many use-cases
• Strong arguments for
more spectrum, but…
• Unintended
consequences?
• Pre-defines model &
stakeholders?
• Extends oligopolies to
adjacent mkts?
• WiFi offload / LTE-U /
LAA as example?

Conclusion: The next 10 years
 Mobile Broadband “service” model a huge success…
 … but not the only way forward
 Innovation comes from diversity, not monoculture
 Spectrum regulation decoupled from downstream innovators
 2nd-order stakeholder groups proliferating for wireless
 Risk of unfair competition between models not just companies
 Beware of assumptions & unintended consequences
 Spectrum Mgmt 2025 must be more than just “services”
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015

Dean Bubley
www.disruptive-analysis.com
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
@disruptivedean
information@disruptive-analysis.com
Skype:disruptiveanalysis
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015

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Future of Spectrum Management - Presentation by Dean Bubley, Brussels June 2015

1. The Future of Spectrum Management Avoiding a service monoculture Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis June 2015 dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean

2. About Disruptive Analysis  Tech/telecom analyst house & strategic consulting firm  Cross-silo, contrarian, independent  Forecasting & anti-forecasting  Consultant & advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors  Speaker at 30+ events per year in Europe, US & Asia  Reports on Mobile Broadband, WebRTC etc  Not a day-to-day spectrum specialist Twitter @disruptivedean Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015

3. Regulation is good at dealing with….  Standalone services  Well-defined products  Stable standards  National / regional  Service providers  Homogeneous  Similar models  Few in number  Commercial / Govt Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015

4. Regulation is bad at dealing with….  Generalised capabilities  Fluid products/features  No/changing standards  Non-geographic  Capability providers  Diverse stakeholders  Non-service models  Many players  New motivations Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015 FREE! Cloud- based Mashups P2P & Crowd- sourced X-as-a- Feature Distributed

5. Different domains, similar challenges Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015 Regulated, predictable, important, inflexible tax/fee-generating Services Un/light-regulated, unpredictable, innovative, disruptive Capabilities Telecom Services Telcos: Voice telephony & SMS Internet Capabilities “OTTs”, apps, social. Dev & web community Spectrum for Services Mobile Broadband Broadcast & Satellite Spectrum for Capabilities WiFi, short-range, PMSE, IoT, private cellular, govt

6. Diversity vs. Monoculture Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015 Efficient & Productive Diversity & Future Optionality

7. IMT intended for “services”, with all that implies Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015

8. Not everything wireless is a subscription model Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015 AmenitySubscription service Owned outright Peer-to-peer Sponsored Transactional Also: Wireless-as- a-feature

9. SPs are not the only wireless stakeholders Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015 User Mobile operator Venues Fixed/cable Things OS / OEMEnterprises Broadcasters Internet Automotive City Brand Developers

10. Unexpected routes to digitalisation of society Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015

11. Mobile broadband forecasts over-cooked?  Much growth driven by new (high-end) users & devices  IoT forecasts attempt to create self-fulfilling prophecies  Assume “service” & IMT-type “operator” model is optimal & ubiquitous Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 Subscriber numbers Data per subscriber Smartphone 3G/4G data traffic growth Source: Ericsson, Disruptive Analysis Dominated by subs growth Unrealistic view of usage growth in prepay-dominated market? 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Postpaid Prepaid Mobile data subs, year-end, m Source: Disruptive Analysis Mobile Broadband report Mostly fixed monthly quotas Incentivised to use less data?

12. The vision for 5G… Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015 Ultra-fast mobile broadband Critical & low latency Super- dense IoT • All-embracing • Many use-cases • Strong arguments for more spectrum, but… • Unintended consequences? • Pre-defines model & stakeholders? • Extends oligopolies to adjacent mkts? • WiFi offload / LTE-U / LAA as example?

13. Conclusion: The next 10 years  Mobile Broadband “service” model a huge success…  … but not the only way forward  Innovation comes from diversity, not monoculture  Spectrum regulation decoupled from downstream innovators  2nd-order stakeholder groups proliferating for wireless  Risk of unfair competition between models not just companies  Beware of assumptions & unintended consequences  Spectrum Mgmt 2025 must be more than just “services” Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015

14. Dean Bubley www.disruptive-analysis.com disruptivewireless.blogspot.com @disruptivedean information@disruptive-analysis.com Skype:disruptiveanalysis Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015

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