For IP Communications, Ubiquity is Dead

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Presentation on the fragmentation of voice, voice and messaging services in telecoms. Discusses the inevitable move from telephone calls to new forms of voice interaction, the importance of WebRTC and the irrelevance of new bureaucratic-driven telecom standards like RCS/joyn

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For IP Communications, Ubiquity is Dead

  1. 1. For IP Communications, Ubiquity is Dead Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis BICS Mobility in Action, Bruges, Oct 29th 2013 dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean
  2. 2. About Disruptive Analysis         London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm Cross-silo, contrarian, visionary, independent Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors Covering VoIP since 1997 & 3G/4G mVoIP since 2007 Critic of RCS since 2008 Published report on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, Feb 2012 New report on WebRTC, Feb 2013 Workshops on Future of Voice & TelcoOTT Twitter @disruptivedean October 2013 Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  3. 3. Neuroscience explains reluctance to change  Predictable irrationality  Endowment effect Optimism bias Confirmation bias Defence of belief systems    Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  4. 4. Voice & messaging are fragmenting Convergence & standards Fragmentation & differentiation Telephony & SMS will continue to exist, but there will be NO more standard, interoperable services
  5. 5. Comforting myths “Voice” = ubiquitous phone calls QoS is critical Interoperability is essential Minutes / messages = value October 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  6. 6. Uncomfortable reality Phone calls are becoming less useful QoS is only sometimes critical Interoperability is essential for basic lowest-common denominator services only Intention & outcomes = value October 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  7. 7. In the beginning – “Proxi-phone” Near voice Contextual Managed interruptions Background +/Sync + Async Not “session” based Etiquette, not regulation Varying importance Natural
  8. 8. Pretty good for the 19th century... Old distant voice [Tele-phone] >100 years ago Strictly session-based Limited context Background negative One-size fits all Unnatural etiquette Heavily regulated ... but eventually ubiquitous
  9. 9. ... but really not good enough for 21st century “Hegemony of the caller”
  10. 10. Voice ≠ Telephony • Now: 2G & 3G • Future: Smartphones & LTE Voice Voice Telephony Telephony Voicemail Conferencing PTT Video Gaming, CEBP, surveillance, social voice, TV voice etc Video, context, sense Comms moving “in-context” October 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  11. 11. Fragmentation of communications models Standalone Circuit calls Good to have “lowest common denominator” IP Embedded app/web calls Non-call comms Maybe ubiquitous in a niche Ubiquity no/negative benefit Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  12. 12. Intent & context.... Why do people make phone calls (or send messages, share media or use video), anyway? October 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  13. 13. Intention & purpose           Context Exchange information Sell to a customer Flirt Manage staff Gossip Tell a story Show off Feel connected Lie or pretend Self-expression October 2013           On the sofa In a meeting While online Using an app On the street On public transport In a bar Multi-tasking Duty Concentrating Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  14. 14. 1 OR 2 “UBIQUITOUS” SERVICES CANNOT FULFILL ALL THESE PURPOSES WELL October 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  15. 15. Tools are cheap/free. So we pick the right ones SMS October 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  16. 16. So how important is quality? % calls Must have I'll call back Nice to have Meh. I want free October 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  17. 17. Beyond “the minute” as a metric & model     We don’t pay for movies or flights by the minute Short calls often more valuable than long Minutes = easy to count Align pricing – and charging – with value   Locks telecom industry to obsolete business model    Needs creativity, on top of standards Flat-rate at retail is popular, but wholesale? Analytics? Cloud processing? Perceived importance? Regulator mindset needs to shift too October 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  18. 18. Service Product Feature Function October 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  19. 19. Design & software simpler via the Web Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  20. 20. For telcos WebRTC is really a magnifier/catalyst Now With WebRTC Bigger opportunities Worse threats Faster speed October 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  21. 21. Ubiquity is dead. And that’s a good thing. We’re getting closer to communications services & applications meeting our real human needs We’ll still need lowestcommon denominator phone calls & maybe SMS & email. But that’s it for ubiquity. October 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  22. 22. For WebRTC report & quarterly update details email information@disruptiveanalysis.com October 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  23. 23. www.disruptive-analysis.com disruptivewireless.blogspot.com @disruptivedean information@disruptive-analysis.com Skype:disruptiveanalysis October 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

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