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Forecasting the WebRTC Market - Presentation from Paris WebRTC Conference Dec'14

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Presentation given by Dean Bubley of Disruptive Analysis at the 2014 Upperside WebRTC Conference in Paris, Dec 16-18.

Covers "WebRTC by the numbers" - top-level summary forecasts, considerations of device support, user-numbers, use-cases and addressable market analysis.

While WebRTC is growing rapidly, it is difficult for business planners & investors to "get a handle on". This slide-deck gives tips on approaches to quantifying the market, as well as top-level data extracted from Disruptive Analysis' latest market report

Published in: Internet

Forecasting the WebRTC Market - Presentation from Paris WebRTC Conference Dec'14

  1. 1. WebRTC: By The Numbers Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis Upperside WebRTC Conference, Paris, 16/12/2014 dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean
  2. 2. About Disruptive Analysis  London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm  Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors  Contrarian with controversial opinions  Covering WebRTC since almost Day 1: June 2011  Reports on WebRTC Markets & Strategies Feb’13 & Sep’14  First & most detailed forecasts for WebRTC Twitter @disruptivedean Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014December 2014 The first, the most detailed & most-updated WebRTC forecasts
  3. 3. WebRTC forecasting Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014December 2014 Top-down Device support & active use of WebRTC Browser/OS support + 3rd-party APIs PC + smartphone + tablet + IoT/M2M Bottom-up Per use-case / application area Use by individuals (regular/occasional) Enterprise, Consumer, Telco, B2C, OTT
  4. 4. Built-into apps / OS 2014 Definitions: Purists need not apply Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014December 2014 “WebRTC” is more a philosophy than a fixed standard Javascript WebRTC APIs W3C IETF RTCWeb Protocols Browser IETF RTCWeb Protocols (+maybe modifications) 3rd party APIs & cloud platforms Plug-ins ORTC API (coming soon) IETF RTCWeb Protocols Browser + ??? ?? Gateways IMS UC Call centre etc
  5. 5. Browser statistics are complex & contradictory Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014December 2014 Global PC installed base by primary browser, year-end, million Source: Disruptive Analysis 2014 Edition WebRTC Report Users, usage, primary, regional variation: all need consideration
  6. 6. WebRTC on >6bn devices by 2019 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014December 2014 Million WebRTC devices, year-end Source: Disruptive Analysis 2014 Edition WebRTC Report But be aware of huge variations by region / country
  7. 7. But what about market value or usage?  Where is the money? £$€¥  Where are the minutes? Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014December 2014
  8. 8. De-lamination means hard to put a $/€ value Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014December 2014 Connectivity UI / UX Cloud / Processing / APIs / PaaS Application Logic Identity / Security / Interoperability Firewall traversal APIs Bandwidth estimation WebRTC IaaS Decomposed functions or auxiliary services Transcoding aaS Public network gateway Identity APIs Cloud platform & APIs Open-source libraries Comms-enabled OS Mobile SDKs & APIs Cloud storage Analytics aaS Browse / app / hybrid Testing 3rd-party buttons/APIs Where exactly do you measure revenues / value? “It depends”
  9. 9. WebRTC vendor/platform space is complex Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014December 2014 General + mobile SDK Products Services Functions Solutions Platforms Gate- ways/ SBCs API pltfms 2013 2014 App Pltfm TURN Media Server aaP Video chat IMS/ WebR TC Vertical SaaS (CRM, HR etc) Media servers UC & UCaaS Messaging CRM/ CCs UC
  10. 10. Legacy telecom stats like “calls” often irrelevant Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014December 2014
  11. 11. Minutes? WebRTC Internet traffic? Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014December 2014
  12. 12. Lead WebRTC use-cases, End-14 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Report 2014 Edition Customer service & platforms • Mayday, Amex etc video support • Contact centres (internal / call-me) • Developer SDKs/platforms • Analytics & processing Consumer web apps & enterprise UC • Mobile consumer VoIP & social chat • Remote 1-1 education/training/healthcare • Free standalone video-calling • Conferencing niches & web extensions • Innovative UC & collaboration • Google (Chromecast, Hangouts etc) Live & commercial • Full-scale corporate conferencing & UC • CDNs • File/screen-sharing & anonymous search Pilots / pre- commercial Trials & demos • Telco VoLTE/IMS extension • Entertainment & consumer electronics • IPTV & personal broadcast • M2M & IoT • Public Safety
  13. 13. Knowledge-workers will adopt WebRTC widely Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014December 2014 Million individuals, year-end Source: Disruptive Analysis 2014 Edition WebRTC Report … but not necessarily through a traditional UC “seat”
  14. 14. Enterprise comms becoming “dis-unified”? Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014September 2014 UC core WebRTC APIsCustomer interaction Collaboration & conferencing Vertical apps Mobility Horizontal apps UC extended by WebRTC UC marginalised by WebRTC User UC Conferencing Integrated app needing legacy telephony etc Comms-enriched apps & cloud services Federated apps, common platform Standalone apps Mobile apps via WebRTC app framework
  15. 15. 2bn+ potential WebRTC users by 2019 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014December 2014 Million WebRTC users, year-end Source: Disruptive Analysis 2014 WebRTC Report See: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com Note: Complex definitions & assumptions. Categories overlap. Inquire for details
  16. 16. Significant % of global Internet users end-2019 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014December 2014 Million consumer embedded VoIP/video users, year-end Source: Disruptive Analysis 2014 WebRTC Report
  17. 17. Conclusions – WebRTC numbers aren’t easy!  Definitions & assumptions!  Device support mostly OK  Big regional variations  Uptake differs per-use case  Regular / occasional  Enterprise vs. Telcos vs. Consumer Web  IoT / M2M / TV  Platforms  $€ Value needs custom analysis  Addressability  Suitable metrics & indicators Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014December 2014
  18. 18. www.disruptive-analysis.com disruptivewireless.blogspot.com @disruptivedean information@disruptive-analysis.com Skype:disruptiveanalysis WebRTC: appear.in/disruptiveanalysis Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014December 2014

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