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Futurism: What does 2030 mean for Spectrum?
Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
Spectrum Futures, Bangkok 18th September 2017...
Dean Bubley & Disruptive Analysis
 Tech/telecom analyst & strategic consulting since 1991
 Futurism, Forecasting, Anti-F...
Key trends for the next 10-15 years
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017
Automation & Robotics Smart Envir...
We need to change our assumptions & semantics for 2030
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017
Services Capab...
Don’t assume “one size fits all”, technology or biz model
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017
Monocultures: Harmonisation brings efficiency… and risks
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017
What is a service provider?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017
MNO
MVNO
TowerCo
WISP
Roaming
Car-SP
Priv...
What will the word “service” mean in 2030?
“Service” ITU Definition : “A set of functions offered to a user by an organisa...
Wireless “service providers” of the future?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017 *Disclosure: Disruptive A...
Many ways to solve any problem: arbitrage is everywhere
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017
The same is t...
Pervasive AI will deeply impact network demand & supply
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017
Least-cost
ro...
IIoT & Industry 4.0 has many domain-specific requirements
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017
“National” licenses are necessary but not sufficient
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017
Power station
Ca...
Multiple platforms & ecosystem diversity adds resilience
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017
image: www.f...
What might 2030 mean for spectrum policy?
 IoT, AI, SDR & XaaS changes everything
 Rethink “services” & SPs
 Network ow...
www.deanbubley.com
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
@disruptivedean
information@disruptive-analysis.com
Skype:disruptiveana...
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Disruptive Analysis - PTC Spectrum Futures Sep 18 2017

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Presentation given by Dean Bubley at Pacific Telecoms Council conference on Spectrum Futures, in Bangkok Sep 2017. Covers future technology trends, wireless requirements, telecom services, spectrum-sharing & AI

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Disruptive Analysis - PTC Spectrum Futures Sep 18 2017

  1. 1. Futurism: What does 2030 mean for Spectrum? Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis Spectrum Futures, Bangkok 18th September 2017 dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean Image Credits: Pixabay.com / Dean Bubley unless stated
  2. 2. Dean Bubley & Disruptive Analysis  Tech/telecom analyst & strategic consulting since 1991  Futurism, Forecasting, Anti-Forecasting, Policy  Cross-silo, contrarian, independent  Often provocative. Sometimes obscure. Occasionally wrong. Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017 Network Tech, Policy & Business Models Communications Apps & Services Telecom-Futurism
  3. 3. Key trends for the next 10-15 years Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017 Automation & Robotics Smart Environments AI New Vehicles & Transport Human Enhancement & Longevity New Dangers & Risks
  4. 4. We need to change our assumptions & semantics for 2030 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017 Services Capabilities Competition Substitution Harmonisation Diversity Managed Intelligent Ubiquitous Tailored
  5. 5. Don’t assume “one size fits all”, technology or biz model Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017
  6. 6. Monocultures: Harmonisation brings efficiency… and risks Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017
  7. 7. What is a service provider? Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017 MNO MVNO TowerCo WISP Roaming Car-SP Private MNO PS-Org SliceNO eSIM SP Fixed telco Cable MSO Biz. MSP AltNet Fix-Wireless Wholesale FibreCo SD-WAN Sec-aaS Community Mobile Fixed Broadcast Satellite ISP/Hosting VenueSP cPaaS IndustrySP CDN SDR-aaS Mesh-aaS IoT-SP Other What is a “service”? Subscription basis? Service vs. feature? Substitution risks? Infrastructure? Boundary with software? Decentralised? What is a 2030 CSP? Uncertainties
  8. 8. What will the word “service” mean in 2030? “Service” ITU Definition : “A set of functions offered to a user by an organisation” This definition seems to exclude:  A set of functions owned & self-provisioned by a user  A set of functions offered to a developer by an organisation  A set of functions embedded in a 3rd-party product or other non-radio service  A set of functions made available as a public amenity  A set of functions owned & consumed by an autonomous organisation  A set of functions enshrined as a human right Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017
  9. 9. Wireless “service providers” of the future? Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017 *Disclosure: Disruptive Analysis is an advisor to Ammbr *
  10. 10. Many ways to solve any problem: arbitrage is everywhere Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017 The same is true for connectivity options: Substitution parallels competition
  11. 11. Pervasive AI will deeply impact network demand & supply Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017 Least-cost routing Energy Management Quasi-QoS Edge / On-Device Compute Autonomous & Offline Path Optimisation Capacity Planning IoT data management
  12. 12. IIoT & Industry 4.0 has many domain-specific requirements Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017
  13. 13. “National” licenses are necessary but not sufficient Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017 Power station Car factory AirportOil refinery Port Offshore windfarm Shared Spectrum rules could enable private, regional industrial-grade 5G/WiFi networks for IoT & Industry 4.0 (Perhaps with a blockchain register?) Smart City Sports Stadium
  14. 14. Multiple platforms & ecosystem diversity adds resilience Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017 image: www.freeimages.co.uk
  15. 15. What might 2030 mean for spectrum policy?  IoT, AI, SDR & XaaS changes everything  Rethink “services” & SPs  Network ownership gets democratised / decentralised  Industrial IoT brings new requirements  National vs. Geo-specific licencing  Many tech pathways for any “outcome”  Question network “monoculture” vs “diversity”  Future spectrum policy must enable new models Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017
  16. 16. www.deanbubley.com disruptivewireless.blogspot.com @disruptivedean information@disruptive-analysis.com Skype:disruptiveanalysis Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017

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