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TMT Predictions


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TMT Predictions By Deloitte sur lafrenchmobileDAY - Edition 2016

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TMT Predictions

  1. 1. Lafrenchmobile, 1er communauté de l’industrie mobile créé en 2009 regroupant + de 400 Entreprises. Le But est d’offrir plus d’expositions à ses membres à travers un certain nombre de services (Offres de Job, Communiques de Presse, annuaire, Market Brief….) LafrenchmobileDAY, Un thème, chaque année est traitée, avec une dizaine d’experts afin d’apporter la réflexion et l’inspiration aux entreprises qui souhaitent être en avance sur leur marché. Meetup, La communauté se réunit tous les 2 mois lors d’une soirée pour écouter 7 startup sur un sujet et cela depuis 2009.
  2. 2. Deloitte: Global footprint & business portfolio – 40% Audit & Enterprise Risk Services – 27% Tax & Financial Advisory – 33% Consulting Include strategy & organization, finance & controlling, M&A, Human capital, CRM, SCM, enterprise applications, technology integration Include tax planning, tax returns and tax law compliance, international tax optimization, mergers & acquisitions, transfer pricing Include audit, international accounting, statutory and voluntary special-purpose audits, enterprise risk services, securitization services Include business valuation, transaction services, business modeling, corporate finance advisory, reorganization services, forensic & dispute services Our integrated capabilities Consulting Audit, Risk & Compliance Tax Financial Advisory Global Firm Coverage: more than 210,000 people in 150 countries Global Revenue/ Revenue Split (US$ B) • Revenue: US$ 17.4B • Countries: 31 • Headcount: 95,000 • Revenue: US$ 4.8B • Countries: 25 • Headcount: 40,000 Americas Asia Pacific • Revenue: US$ 12.1B • Countries: 98 • Headcount: 75,000 EMEA • Revenue: US$ 34.2B total FY14 • Countries: 154 • Headcount: 210,000 26,1 26,6 28,8 31,3 32,4 2
  3. 3. Declare ‘where to play’ and ‘how to win’ in the market to create sustainable competitive advantage and superior financial returns Decide ‘how to configure’ – capabilities and enabling organizational system to support the strategy - and mobilize to make changes today STRATEGY ACTION 2,000 + consultants Pure-player in “Strategy” since founding by 6 entrepreneurs including Michael Porter Deep expertise network to address our clients’ most critical questions Organization through competence centers Collaborative approach with clients 200,000 employees and 45,000 Consultants Unmatched scale as the world’s largest and only truly “one stop shop” professional services firm A full-service line of consulting services in strategy & implementation Broad reach and local insight with offices in more than 140 countries Within consulting, Monitor Deloitte offers a distinctive set of services combining leading-edge strategic thinking and innovation © 2015 Monitor Deloitte 3
  4. 4. Deloitte Digital Deloitte Digital is an innovative leader in online and mobile strategy, design and development, offering world-class knowledge and resources from the leading global business and technology consultancy. We work with a wide range of iconic local and global organisations, helping them understand and profit from the online and mobile revolution. Our focus is on digital strategy, mobile, social/web, and managed services, underpinned by tech architecture, application implementation and development expertise. Conceive Implement DevelopDiscover Inspire Model Analyze Review Monitor Evaluate Set up strategy Investigate Asses Plan Develop Validate Transition Generate creativity Vision & Leadership Management Organization & capabilities Customer experience Technology & product Digital Strategy Analytics Ux design Technology 16 Countries (Incl. UK, Belgium, Netherlands and France) 3800+ Global headcount 1000+ US headcount 1000+ US India headcount © 2015 Monitor Deloitte 4
  5. 5. TMT Predictions was first published in 2001
  6. 6. 2015 Technology Predictions report card The Internet of Things really is things, not people Drones: high-profile and niche 3D printing is a revolution: just not the revolution you think Click and collect booms in Europe Smartphone batteries: better but not breakthrough Nanosats take off, but they don’t take over (We were too high!) The re-enterprization of IT Came true, but less than we predicted. At least so far Didn’t come true as we predicted Legend Came true exactly as much as we predicted
  7. 7. Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  8. 8. 2015 Media Predictions report card Short form video: a future, but not the future, of television The ‘generation that won’t spend’ is spending a lot in media content Print is alive and well – at least for books Came true, but less than we predicted. At least so far Didn’t come true as we predicted Legend Came true exactly as much as we predicted
  9. 9. 620 635 653 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2013 2014 2015 US unit sales of print books, 2013–2015 (millions) Source: Nielsen BookScan (captures 80% of US print book sales)
  10. 10. 2015 Telecom Predictions report card One billion smartphone upgrades The connectivity chasm deepens: the growing gap in broadband speeds Contactless mobile payments (finally) gain momentum Came true, but less than we predicted. At least so far Didn’t come true as we predicted Legend Came true exactly as much as we predicted
  11. 11. Apple Pay usage As a percentage of Apple Pay eligible transactions ©2015 InfoScout. All rights reserved.
  12. 12. Total prediction accuracy 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E
  13. 13. TMT predictions 2016 synthesis : Technology Women in IT jobs, not just about education Training millennials are the pro-PC, not the post-PC, generation Touch commerce: the mobile online checkout gets an express lane Graphene: research now, reap next decade Cognitive technologies enhance enterprise software From 40% to 20% of workforce in IT from 85 to 2015 – why and how to change ? From Mobile-First to Mobile-Only to both PC & mobile 12-13% completion rate: 3rd party touch- commerce expected from merchant & clients Incredible properties starting a long industrial transformation Many applications from now : Natural Language Processing, Computer vision
  14. 14. Laptop and smartphone adoption among 18-24 year olds Which of the following devices do you own or have ready access to? Which of the following devices are you likely to buy in the next 12 months? Training millennials are the pro-PC, not the post-PC, generation
  15. 15. Source: Deloitte Digital Democracy survey, US only, 2014 Laptop and smartphone adoption among 18-24 year olds Of the products you indicated you own, which 3 do you value the most? Training millennials are the pro-PC, not the post-PC, generation
  16. 16. It’s not either/or, it’s BOTH Training millennials are the pro-PC, not the post-PC, generation Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  17. 17. Cognitive technologies enhance enterprise software Deloit te
  18. 18. TMT predictions 2016 synthesis: Media Virtual reality: a billion dollar niche Mobile games: leading, but less lucrative Mobile ad-blockers: saved by the app? The award for stable box offices revenues in the face of media goes to US TV: erosion, not implosion European football scores $30 bilion eSports: bigger and smaller than you think Core gamers as early-adopters in 2016 (2.5M VR headsets sold), enterprise after Current freemium will lead to more selection or change in business models Despite high-growth, mobile ad-blocks should remain marginal ! Cinema not to be digitized, stable now and in the medium term TV market values (Pay and Free) remains ~stable despite slow audience decrease $8b more than 2012: rev. growth, cost. mngt, profitability, new investors, long term invest eSports revenues to triple from 16 to 20 to $1.5bn, still 1% of global sports $150bn rev. Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  19. 19. $24 $11 $32 $28 $- $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 Smartphone Tablet PC Console 6% growth 5% growth 20% growth Global video game market 2016 (billions of US$) $- $1,0 $2,0 $3,0 $4,0 $5,0 $6,0 Console PC Mobile $40,000! Average revenue per game, by platform in 2016 (millions of US$) Mobile games: leading, but less lucrative
  20. 20. Traditional television remains resilient, even in the US US TV is approaching a plateau, not a fall; it is eroding, not imploding US TV: erosion, not implosion
  21. 21. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2013 2014 2015 US Daily Traditional TV viewing by those 18+ Source: Nielsen Three Screen Report Q1 2010, Nielsen Cross Platform Reports Q1 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, Nielsen Total Audience Report Q1 2015, and Deloitte Global estimate for Q1 2016 Daily TV minutes (live and time shifted) for US 18-24 year olds US TV: erosion, not implosion
  22. 22. TMT predictions 2016 synthesis The down of the Gigabit Ethernet age: every bit counts Used smartphones: the $17 billion market you have never heard of The rise of the data-exclusive VoLTE / VoWiFi: capacity, reach and capability Photo sharing: trillions and rising From 100 to 600m connections in the world until 2020, 90% residential Strongly growing (vs $400bn primary sales) and structuring: new offers, cannibalization Data-exclusive users: 11% (12), 22% (15), 26% (2016) 300m users by end-16, x2 from 2015. Many opportunities for Opcos Still rising, 2,5trillions, +15 vs 2015, many opportunities: cataloguing Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  23. 23. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-75 Canada 2015: 27% ‘Data exclusive’ mobile users, by age group, developed countries, 2015 Source: Deloitte Global Mobile Consumer Survey, 2015 The rise of the data-exclusive Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  24. 24. The rise of the data-exclusive
  25. 25. MIL GX BMR 44% 44% 50% 43% 31% 29% 29% 31% 31% 15% 28% 23% 26% 21% 8% 17% 23% 13% 18% 12% 11% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% No urgency Topic not important enough Inappropriate location Avoiding interrupting other person Can’t multi-task as easily when on the phone Personally too busy to talk Avoiding awkwardness of a live convo Factors Driving Phone Call Avoidance on a Smartphone (Among Smartphone Owners/Users n=672) Source: Ipsos Reid Custom Deloitte Study (data collected Jan 2016) Among those who own/use a Smartphone (Mil. n=67 / Gen Xers n=330 / Boomers n=234) The rise of the data-exclusive
  26. 26. © 2015 Monitor Deloitte Well known : Digital is revolutionizing economy – disrupt or become disrupted Company Years in business Rooms Hotels Countries 7 1 000 000 + 0 192 69 710 000 4 800 100 96 690 000 4 200 93 Photography Music Newspaper Tourism Media Telco Transport Financial Services ? 2000 On average, a sector is disrupted at a 2 year pace 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Zoom: Tourism ?
  27. 27. Digital Transformation covers an ever-expanding collection of battlefield for businesses Overview of a selection of new concepts and revolutions COGNITIVE SYSTEMS > Predicting failures and improving processes thanks to data gathering and analysis INTERNET OF THINGS & SENSORS > Allowing to control remotely industrial processes and to develop predictive maintenance AUGMENTED REALITY > Real-world environment digitally enhanced by computer-generated sensory input (sound, video, graphics, GPS data ) ROBOTICS > Technology dealing with the design, construction, operation, and application of robots in order to improve productivity, product quality and worker safety 3D PRINTING > Allows customizable, one-off production with virtually no waste RADIO FREQUENCY IDENTIFICATION (RFID) > Automatic identification method, relying on storing and remotely retrieving data RAPID PROTOTYPING > Group of techniques using in particular 3D computer aided design data to rapidly and efficiently turn innovative ideas into scale models. PLANTS SUPER- CONNECTION > Connection of machines, work pieces and systems, creating intelligent networks along the value chain that control each other Concrete Digital moves . and more to come E-COMMERCE Around 45% of European consumers are regular e- commerce users MOBILE CRM Smartphones to represent 72% of people in top digital markets by 2015, with new expectations of CRM SOCIAL NETWORKS Social recommendations as key enabler of any purchase CLOUD Increased usage of dematerialized information storage capacity PROTOTYPING AND SIMULATIONS Simulations on digital prototypes optimizing product development processes BIG DATA Analysis and storage of customers' information to improve customer experience MASS CUSTOMIZATION Technology enabling products and services to be unique or fit precisely to customers' needs NEW PURE DIGITAL PRODUCTS E-book (media), Uber (transport), Aflac (insurance), Source: SNEP, RIAA, European Commission, press release, MD analysis © 2015 Monitor Deloitte 27
  28. 28. OPERATIONS AND CULTURE DATA DRIVEN DECISION PRODUCTS AND SERVICES BUSINESS MODEL AND ECOSYSTEM Five types of business transformation must be tackled Source: SNEP, RIAA, European Commission, press release, MD analysis © 2015 Monitor Deloitte 28 1 2 3 4 OPERATIONS AND CULTURE DATA DRIVEN DECISION CLIENT RELATIONSHIP PRODUCTS AND SERVICES Example of B2C Services Levers & initiatives Multi-channel, device and networks brand management One-to-one CRM and marketing Clients' solicitation management and optimization Flawless and smart multi-channel Customer Experience Distribution: optimization and innovation Products and Services: optimization and innovation Pricing: optimization and innovation Optimization and digitization of "advanced" logistics Optimization and digitization of "advanced" supply & production Digitization & dematerialization of workflows and communication IT capabilities and data management Digital, social and agile organization Ecosystem, networks, and partners management Business Model transformation Key stages Example of players 5 BUSINESS MODEL AND ECOSYSTEM Collect a huge amount of data on customers characteristics and behaviors Predict new market trends and customer needs Create disruptive offers and accelerate time to market Nearly always succeed when innovating CAC40
  29. 29. Cost and change management as main obstacles... Manque de volonté managériale 52% 62% Technicité ou manque de compétence Résistance au changement 40% Coût 29% Incertitude réglementaire, juridique 14% Risque de sécurité 20% 26% Absence d’offre adaptée sur le marché (infrastructure, appareils, solutions, …) Principaux freins au développement numérique [% d’entreprises] – France Source : Etude Callson (505 entreprises sondées)
  30. 30. Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee, and its network of member firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please see for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited and its member firms. © 2015 Monitor Deloitte 30
  31. 31. Contact Twitter @lafrenchmobile Web Slideshare Linkedin