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WiFi Opportunities & Challenges: Positioning vs. 5G

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Presentation given by Dean Bubley of Disruptive Analysis, at the March 2019 Wi-Fi Now conference in Shanghai, China (colocated with the Wi-Fi Alliance summit)

The presentation considers the future role of WiFi in the home, enterprise and public spaces. It compares its trajectory and advantages / disadvantages with 5G cellular technology. It covers topics including WiFi6, Industrial IoT and mesh networks.

Published in: Technology
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WiFi Opportunities & Challenges: Positioning vs. 5G

  1. 1. Wi-Fi Opportunities & Challenges Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis Wi-Fi Now, Shanghai, March 2019 dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean Image credits: Pixabay.com / Dean Bubley
  2. 2. Dean Bubley & Disruptive Analysis ◼ Tech/telecom analyst & strategic consulting since 1991 ◼ Futurism, Forecasting, Anti-Forecasting, Policy ◼ Cross-silo, contrarian, independent ◼ Often provocative. Sometimes obscure. Occasionally wrong. Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019 Network Tech, Policy & Business Models Communications Apps & Services Telecom-Futurism Industry Analyst Papers & Reports
  3. 3. Key trends for the next 10-15 years Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019 Automation & Robotics Smart Environments AI New Vehicles & Transport Human Enhancement & Longevity New Dangers & Risks
  4. 4. Wi-Fi has both opportunities & challenges Good news - More fixed broadband lines - More devices & use-cases, esp. IoT - More use in developing world - More spectrum - More entrenched in the Home (mesh, cloud etc) Bad news - Worse public login experience - Flat-rate cellular data - 5G community better at verticals - Losing “non-Wi-Fi” 802.11 innovators - Not enough global community visibility / lobbying Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
  5. 5. A billion lines of fixed broadband, most with Wi-Fi Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019 Source: Point Topic Even 5G FWA still needs Wi-Fi indoors
  6. 6. Mesh + Cloud is entrenching home Wi-Fi Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019 ?? ?
  7. 7. Multiple dimensions for future wireless networks Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019 March 2019 bpd bps Gbps 10m Non- critical Function- critical 90% 99% 99.9% Rural2 3 4 1 Steps from Internet 3D Coverage Bandwidth Kbps Importance Business- critical Safety- critical Range <1m Mbps And also: Latency / TSN Power source Socioeconomic Geopolitical Security model Mobility Integration Bi-directional Protocols Lobbying power 1km >10km 100m 4G / 5G / LPWA / Satellite / TVWS Managed spectrum?Wi-Fi, inc. 11ax, ad Biz Model CSP Private Amenity Community Decentralised Indoor Unlicensed / shared bands?
  8. 8. Every vertical & sector has unique wireless requirements Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
  9. 9. More spectrum… but still more ambition needed Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019 Wi-Fi should be aiming for licensed / shared bands as well (802.11 already can)
  10. 10. Wi-Fi Competitiveness Scorecard vs. alternative networks Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019 ProblematicOptimal ProblematicOptimal ProblematicOptimal ProblematicOptimal ProblematicOptimal In-Home Office Public Industrial Outdoors & mobile Wi-Fi: whole home Wi-Fi: poor logonWi-Fi: easy logon Wi-Fi: single AP Wi-Fi: enterprise Wi-Fi: general Wi-Fi: safety critical Wi-Fi: limited 4G flat-rate 4G flat-rate 4G metered 4G metered Fibre / Niche 4G private 4G MBB 4G NB-IoT Wired Ethernet Indoor 4G Satellite
  11. 11. This is unacceptable & will help kill public Wi-Fi Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
  12. 12. Losing the battle with 4G for public-space network access Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019 Enter email
  13. 13. This is how public WiFi is done properly Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
  14. 14. “Capillarity” – how many steps from the Internet / core? Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
  15. 15. Combinations of multiple networks are inevitable Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019 Including a beta of “aggregation mode”
  16. 16. The cellular industry is expanding its reach hugely Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019 4G / LTE 5G NR LTE-U Private LTE LTE-M NB-IoT 5G-U Private 5G 5G-TSN URLLC 5G-V2X 5G FWA 5G + MEC 5G NC 3G
  17. 17. Should Wi-Fi be an inclusive or exclusive brand? Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019 5G 3GPP 5G NR radio IEEE 802.11 Wi-Fi™ Cool 802.11 innovations (not “Wi-Fi”)
  18. 18. Why doesn’t Wi-Fi have vertical forums & academia like 5G? Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
  19. 19. What the Wi-Fi industry needs to do ◼ Look to own as much of the future use-case landscape as possible  Go (almost) wherever 5G / 3GPP is going  … in terms of use-case, frequencies & business-models ◼ Defend the consumer market with mesh Wi-Fi + cloud control ◼ Take industrial / verticals Wi-Fi much more seriously, and fast  Endorse variants intended for licensed / shared spectrum bands  Engage with Industrial Ethernet / TSN communities more deeply ◼ Wi-Fi Alliance should create a new “Innovation” or “Experimental” track for “lightweight” certification, with low friction & costs (Wi-Fi-E perhaps?)  Capture cool new uses & variations of 802.11 for the Wi-Fi brand  Explicitly recognise that WiFi-E technologies may not interoperate ◼ Stop the stupidity of hotspot log-ins, social connection & privacy abuse Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
  20. 20. www.deanbubley.com disruptivewireless.blogspot.com @disruptivedean https://www.linkedin.com/in/deanbubley/ https://soundcloud.com/user-521594836 information@disruptive-analysis.com Skype:disruptiveanalysis Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017March 2019

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