Trends in LTE voice & personal       communications     LTE Summit, 18th May 2011     dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com
About Disruptive Analysis   Analyst house & strategic consulting firm   Founded by Dean Bubley   Blog at disruptivewire...
The big picture        2000-2010             •   VoIP needed for cost & competition                              •   Well-...
Future telephony economics 101                                      Supply of basic telephony (or close substitutes)      ...
Three basic “uses cases” for communications                                                                            Pre...
A dirty little secret….                                     Humans don’t                                   really interact...
Voice ≠ Telephony    Now: 2G & 3G                                        Future: Smartphones & LTE               Voice    ...
LTE era vs 50bn devices: How many with voice?                                             Possibly 50 billion+            ...
Will future operators all support voice? How?                                                      Full IMS               ...
IMS: dead, but now nailed to the perch of LTE? (With apologies to Monty Python) 3GPP                                      ...
Revisiting the VoIP timeline                                                                           10% of fixed global...
LTE voice & VoLTE challenges   Too many spectrum bands      Poor optimisation in efficiency, yield, cost & performance  ...
Most likely outcome for LTE VoiceSolution              2011-2012                2013-2014                   2015 onwards  ...
Towards two-sided business models?                      Brands            Web             Media    & adver          player...
Some technology gaps?           Telephony &     VoIP and                    Prioritisation   Solution for            messa...
Next steps: participate, analyse & collaborateMay 2011         Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
www.disruptive-analysis.comdisruptivewireless.blogspot.com@disruptivedeandean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com+44 (0) 7941 1...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Disruptive Analysis LTE Summit 2011 voice presentation may 2011

1,774 views

Published on

Presentation given by Dean Bubley at 2011 LTE World Summit in Amsterdam, on Voice, VoLTE and Future of Personal Communications

  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Disruptive Analysis LTE Summit 2011 voice presentation may 2011

  1. 1. Trends in LTE voice & personal communications LTE Summit, 18th May 2011 dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com
  2. 2. About Disruptive Analysis Analyst house & strategic consulting firm Founded by Dean Bubley Blog at disruptivewireless.blogspot.com  Twitter @disruptivedean & also on LinkedIn and Quora Covering mobile VoIP since 2004, pico/femtocells since 2001 Regular focus on the links between innovative mobile network technologies & the impact on devices and applications Partnered with Telco 2.0, Diffraction Analysis & Martin Geddes Consulting Coined the term “Happy Pipe” to describe profitable broadband strategies  Also “Tyranny of the SIM card”, “Mobile data offload” & “Under the floor player” Recent reports on Mobile Broadband Traffic Management & RCS Upcoming study on Telco-OTT services Masterclasses on “Future of Voice”.  SF event June 30th, London event on July 14thMay 2011 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
  3. 3. The big picture 2000-2010 • VoIP needed for cost & competition • Well-defined wholesale models Fixed broadband & • Centralised & standardised services VoIP, QoS • Attempts to evolve telephony to APIs 2010-2020 • Power & bandwidth to fit comms tech LTE, cloud, web 2.0, to human needs, not vice versa social networks, smart • Many “two-sided” business models devices, apps, QoE • Fragmentation of voice into 1000 appsMay 2011 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
  4. 4. Future telephony economics 101 Supply of basic telephony (or close substitutes) rising Regulatory pressures (eg termination fees) Lower perceived value in phone calls vs. other communications channels Accounting rule changes More users Possibility to “distribute” telephony via APIs & embedded applications New use cases? Extra functionality & quality?May 2011 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
  5. 5. Three basic “uses cases” for communications Presence is “sensuous” More than on/offline Includes context & emotionSource: Martin Geddes ConsultingMay 2011 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
  6. 6. A dirty little secret…. Humans don’t really interact with each other in “sessions” …but sessions are easy to control & bill. The challenge is to package sessions in a way to compete with more “natural” options that are emergingMay 2011 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
  7. 7. Voice ≠ Telephony Now: 2G & 3G Future: Smartphones & LTE Voice Voice Telephony Telephony Voicemail Gaming, CEBP,Conferencing surveillance, social PTT Video voice, TV voice etc Video, context, sense Significant risk that basic telephony & messaging services fall prey to alternatives that fit better with human psychology. Moving to supply >> demand for voice May 2011 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
  8. 8. LTE era vs 50bn devices: How many with voice? Possibly 50 billion+ (maybe 1 trillion+) Billion devices 35 30 Other 25 LTE phones Most devices not for 3G phones 20 “primary voice”. 2G phones Scope for secondary 15 IP comms services 10 Full mobile Most devices VoIP not 5 for “primary #1 priority voice” 0 Still a lot of 2010 2020 CS mobile voiceMay 2011 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
  9. 9. Will future operators all support voice? How? Full IMS + VoLTE Partial “Velcro” IMS / GSM or NGN CSFB or VoIP VoLGA Integrated voice & data operators Cloud Data voice only & (non- BYO-2020 “Straw Man” access) VoIP1bn LTE handsets PartnerComms services ARPU $20 / mo Skype /[but 50% carried on 2G/3G/WiFi] Google$120bn revenue etc + need for continuity at LTE / 3G= equivalent to 2010 SMS market / 2G /WiFi boundary May 2011 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
  10. 10. IMS: dead, but now nailed to the perch of LTE? (With apologies to Monty Python) 3GPP LTE& GSMA Fjords, aka RCS Mobile IMS http://disruptivewireless.blogspot.com/2009/08/mobile-ims-and-lte-networks-dead-parrot.htmlMay 2011 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
  11. 11. Revisiting the VoIP timeline 10% of fixed global PSTN based on st SIP spec Skype launched 10m IP-phones Vocaltec 1 carrier VoIP released shipped byInternet VoIP SoftBank / (about 110m Cisco starts Yahoo VoIP Cisco software subscribers) ITU develops selling IP-PBXs launched AT&T VoIP launched Skype gets H323 1m Cisco 124m monthly IP-phones users shipped • 8 years to get 10% penetration for fixed-carrier VoIP against background of old switches, all postpaid (recurring revenue). No issues of mobility, battery or RF. • 12 years after ITU release SIP specifications • OneVoice (later VoLTE) specs announced late 2009 • First VoLTE launches 2012/2013 (?) May 2011 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
  12. 12. LTE voice & VoLTE challenges Too many spectrum bands  Poor optimisation in efficiency, yield, cost & performance  All sorts of policy-management / steering challenges Not all operators will deploy VoLTE, even long-term  Some will be data-only/primary & not need own voice platform  Some may partner / encourage / optimise Skype & other 3rd party voice Offload / multi-bearer scenarios No likelihood of MNOs switching off CS voice before 2020 Unknown need for optimisation & tuning of RAN for VoLTE High probability of OSS / BSS headaches Lack of clarity around network-sharing / wholesale scenarios Indoor coverage problems, esp. with MIMO Massmarket handsets a long way off Where is SMS???May 2011 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
  13. 13. Most likely outcome for LTE VoiceSolution 2011-2012 2013-2014 2015 onwards NotesVoLTE Some trials. Many Patchy rollout, more Slow growth but not If it works, OK for problems found in 700-900MHz universal. Used for basic telephony, not networks roaming for Voice 2.0CSFB Few rollouts. Likely May be fixed, but not Fades out as Political choice by not good user likely mainstream option GSMA / 3GPP experienceVoLGA Unlikely to be used, May come back if Good option for Could be revisited by maybe OTT other solutions as those with long CS 3GPP under another bad as feared legacy ahead nameNo operator voice. Used on laptops & Common on LTE May be 2nd voice Some operators willUser picks 3rd pty tablets. Some wholesale networks service along with take fixed bband smartphone use operator’s own approachOptimised 3rd-party A few renegade Depends on Skype, Important in specific Could be providedVoIP operators Google etc pockets but not from other telco as universal wholesaleDual-radio “Velcro” Use for SVLTE in Replacement for Probably superseded Battery impact but CDMA 1x + LTE CSFB in 3GPP? better overall QoE May 2011 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
  14. 14. Towards two-sided business models? Brands Web Media & adver players & -tisers content Possible payment for QoS, voice API access, ads, customer info etc $ Other $$$ Telco Telco End users Whole- $ sale But a risk of reversal – telcos paying for Web QoS, APIs, data, content Devel- IT And also “not as easy as it looks” to Govern opers shops achieve. Platforms, SLAs, IT, sales… -mentMay 2011 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
  15. 15. Some technology gaps? Telephony & VoIP and Prioritisation Solution for messaging messaging in & QoS SMS on LTE model for complex engines for that works wholesale offload complex LTE scenarios scenarios networks Signalling On-device Advanced Dual-radio management measuremen acoustic GSM / LTE for VoLTE, t of user- technology devices and comms apps perceived optimised for chipsets & MBB QoE mobile VoIPMay 2011 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
  16. 16. Next steps: participate, analyse & collaborateMay 2011 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
  17. 17. www.disruptive-analysis.comdisruptivewireless.blogspot.com@disruptivedeandean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com+44 (0) 7941 100016 May 2011 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011

×