WebRTC – Implications & Opportunities for Telcos                              Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis            ...
Introduction    This is adapted from a Nov 29th 2012 presentation by Dean     Bubley at the WebRTC Expo & Conference in S...
About Disruptive Analysis   London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm   Cross-silo, contrarian, visionary, ...
It’s all looking pretty grim anyway                                     Voice & SMS saturation & cannibalisation          ...
Basic services’ demand & pricing is fallingDecember 2012    Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
“It’s all those nasty OTTs’ fault!!”                STOP looking for a scapegoat                   & take responsibilityDe...
Voice ≠ Telephony    • Now: 2G & 3G                                   • Future: Smartphones & LTE              Voice      ...
Service                  e.g. Telephony                                                   Product                         ...
A telephony demand cliff?It’s not just so-called OTT competitors, it’s apps removing the need for phone calls.When was the...
Telephony: Catastrophe imminent?        Supply                 Price & revenue                         Demand       Core q...
Voice & messaging go in-context                Telephony and messaging is increasingly done “in-context” or               ...
Peak telephony & SMS is here           Mobile core services revenue,               indicative W Europe                    ...
Personalisation is done by people                                                                          User-selected  ...
Fragmentation is valuable                  Convergence &                  Fragmentation &                    standards    ...
Device diversity = OTT inevitable           Probability of all of a user’s Internet / messaging devices being             ...
Telcos already exploiting Internet                Owned & operated by mobile operators                Usable by anyone, no...
Harsh truth: Telco-OTT mandatory                • Telephony & SMS prices have peaked                • Telephony & SMS dema...
Telco-OTT: more than just VoIP/RTC           Comms           Connec-                                      Over 100 identif...
Biz models may not be obvious                              …. Carriers need to move away                                 f...
WebRTC: game-changer & threat                              The future?                             In the crossfireMicroso...
WebRTC is a magnifier & catalyst                                                          Now           With WebRTCDecembe...
My enemy’s enemy is my friend….                                     ???        “WebRTC will hurt OTTs more than Telcos!”… ...
Telco involvement with WebRTC    AT&T most visible         Participant in standards, eg proposing push for notifications...
Multiple constituencies involved                             Enterprise VoIP                                              ...
Overlapping universes                                                                            Softphones etc“Gateway in...
“Easy options” for Telcos+WebRTC   Charging platform   Legal requirements   Notifications   Numbers / directories   W...
Some myths to avoid for WebRTCA quick diversion to some pet topics of mine:Quality & QoS                                  ...
Main WebRTC strategies for SPs                                                                    Perpetuate legacy models...
Conclusions: WebRTC & SPs   No definitive answers yet   Makes the threats worse & the opportunities better        Battl...
www.disruptive-analysis.comdisruptivewireless.blogspot.com@disruptivedeaninformation@disruptive-analysis.comSkype:disrupti...
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Future of Voice & WebRTC - Implications & Opportunities for telcos (service providers)

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Overview presentation on the challenges for telecom operators (telcos, carriers) in voice & messaging services. Examines general trends in evolution of Future of Voice, including fall-off of demand for basic services. Examines the impact & opportunities from a new technology WebRTC in accelerating this, and the ways that telcos can structure their thoughts & strategies. Disruptive Analysis is doing continual work & advising various companies in this area. [Note: this is not an intro to WebRTC technology itself & assumes existing knowledge]

Future of Voice & WebRTC - Implications & Opportunities for telcos (service providers)

  1. 1. WebRTC – Implications & Opportunities for Telcos Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis adapted from presentation at WebRTC Expo SF, Nov 2012 information@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedeanContact information@disruptive-analysis.com for information on workshops & consultingprojects about WebRTC & Future of Voice. Watch for upcoming reports & subscribe to theDisruptive Wireless blog http://disruptivewireless.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscribe-via-email.html
  2. 2. Introduction This is adapted from a Nov 29th 2012 presentation by Dean Bubley at the WebRTC Expo & Conference in San Francisco It assumes a working knowledge of what WebRTC technology is, and how it works. If you are looking for a WebRTC introduction, check out: www.webrtcworld.com/ http://bit.ly/xUfKud http://amzn.to/TS7Adp This presentation focuses on issues for telecom operators To understand WebRTC implications, it is necessary to first have a good idea of what is happening to voice comms anyway More WebRTC detail & analysis is available from Disruptive Analysis’ consulting services, research reports, workshops & blog December 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  3. 3. About Disruptive Analysis London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm Cross-silo, contrarian, visionary, independent Advisor to MNOs, vendors, regulators & investors Focus on 3G, 4G, operator strategies, VoIP, OTT, disruption Published report on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, Feb 2012 Workshops on Future of Voice & #TelcoOTT  With Martin Geddes Consulting (credited for various slides here)  Next events in London & US in H1’13 (futureofvoice.com)Twitter @disruptivedean .Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.comTo understand the impact of WebRTC on telcos, it is first important to understand their current marketplace & trends. WebRTC is then a catalyst & accelerantDecember 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  4. 4. It’s all looking pretty grim anyway Voice & SMS saturation & cannibalisation Regulation & competitive impacts Weak content & VAS propositions Economic pressures Ecosystem competition Connecting the last unconnected Smartphones & data growth Better segmentation, pricing & promotion Innovative services & enablers Embracing & exploiting fragmentationDecember 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  5. 5. Basic services’ demand & pricing is fallingDecember 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  6. 6. “It’s all those nasty OTTs’ fault!!” STOP looking for a scapegoat & take responsibilityDecember 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  7. 7. Voice ≠ Telephony • Now: 2G & 3G • Future: Smartphones & LTE Voice Voice Telephony Telephony Voicemail Gaming, CEBP,Conferencing surveillance, social PTT Video voice, TV voice etc Video, context, sense December 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  8. 8. Service e.g. Telephony Product e.g. Skype, IP-PBX Feature e.g. Zynga IMWe have seen a years-long trend for billable“services” to drift down to ownable products, Functionand eventually appear as mere features offunctions of other apps or even device OSs December 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  9. 9. A telephony demand cliff?It’s not just so-called OTT competitors, it’s apps removing the need for phone calls.When was the last time you phoned a travel agent? Taxi apps are better than phoningDecember 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  10. 10. Telephony: Catastrophe imminent? Supply Price & revenue Demand Core question: Can data services offset the decline of voice & messaging? Uncomfortable answer: probably not, based on recent evidenceDisruption and innovation are both inevitable & essential, irrespective of WebRTCDecember 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  11. 11. Voice & messaging go in-context Telephony and messaging is increasingly done “in-context” or “in-app”. But in many cases, telco APIs don’t offer the right “raw ingredients” or business model.December 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  12. 12. Peak telephony & SMS is here Mobile core services revenue, indicative W Europe Total c40% fall BASELINE, ie excluding WebRTC from peak Telephony c80% fall from peak SMS & today’s mobile data services Mobile telephony Source: Disruptive Analysis, Telco 2.0 Analysis 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Even without WebRTC, serious revenue falls are expected in basic telco services. Given that telephony is >100 years old, it is now looking an old & creaky productDecember 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  13. 13. Personalisation is done by people User-selected Mobile calls portfolio: SMS perfect fit for MMS specific use Email cases99% of personal + Lowest common comms for all Mobile calls SMS denominator just use cases (RCS?) when needed“Ubiquitous” & standardised interoperable telco services will increasingly be used only as lowest-common denominators, when no better app/service is available for a given instance of communication. Everyone will curate their own service portfolio.December 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  14. 14. Fragmentation is valuable Convergence & Fragmentation & standards innovation It will fragment “because it can”. Consumer need for ubiquity is over-rated… new standardised services are neither necessary, nor sufficient. They are irrelevant at best, and actively damaging at worst. December 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  15. 15. Device diversity = OTT inevitable Probability of all of a user’s Internet / messaging devices being on a single telco’s network100% 90% Free 3rd party WiFi 80% Shared data plans only a 70% partial response 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% # connected devices owned 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 Users will want same apps & service ID on every device – but will inevitably have multiple telcos. This means that OTT-style services will be mandatoryDecember 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  16. 16. Telcos already exploiting Internet Owned & operated by mobile operators Usable by anyone, not just subscribers Via apps & public Internet Telco-OTT ServicesDecember 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  17. 17. Harsh truth: Telco-OTT mandatory • Telephony & SMS prices have peaked • Telephony & SMS demand has peaked • APIs, HD, Video, Bundles only delay the inevitable • Need for new voice-based services beyond “calls” • Too fast-evolving for new “federated” services • Too uncertain / innovation-driven for standards OTT-style services offer the only hope for continued telco services growth & increased relevanceDecember 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  18. 18. Telco-OTT: more than just VoIP/RTC Comms Connec- Over 100 identified Telco-OTT products in the tivity market. Content CloudDecember 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  19. 19. Biz models may not be obvious …. Carriers need to move away from the obsession with “subscriptions” with WebRTC/OTTDecember 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  20. 20. WebRTC: game-changer & threat The future? In the crossfireMicrosoft CU-RTC-WEB ???? December 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  21. 21. WebRTC is a magnifier & catalyst Now With WebRTCDecember 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  22. 22. My enemy’s enemy is my friend…. ??? “WebRTC will hurt OTTs more than Telcos!”… & create new, better, more disruptive OTT players. Great. Actually, my enemy’s enemy is probably even nastier & uglier than the current bunch. Anything that damages Skype is bad news for telcos too December 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  23. 23. Telco involvement with WebRTC  AT&T most visible  Participant in standards, eg proposing push for notifications  Developer-centric approach  Telefonica likely a major player  TokBox acquisition  Firefox OS advocacy  TUMe & other TefDig products  DT & FT at recent events  FT on W3C WG  Vodafone, Telecom Italia, SKT, Smart, China Unicom also on WG  Increasing anecdotal evidence from client interestDecember 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  24. 24. Multiple constituencies involved Enterprise VoIP Ground-up / UC / interest in conferencing WebRTC (in moving to labs etc) WebRTC VoLTE & Telco- Apps, developer OTT teams & HTML5 curious/worried initiatives adding by WebRTC Telco WebRTC WebRTC interest + Policy / broadband teams: Can we detect / block / bill for it? Regulatory: What does this mean, how do we do 911 etc?December 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  25. 25. Overlapping universes Softphones etc“Gateway into IMS” Telco services Pure WebRTC OTT apps Network & platform APIs Browser-based Telco-OTT December 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  26. 26. “Easy options” for Telcos+WebRTC Charging platform Legal requirements Notifications Numbers / directories WiFi access (in theory…) Network QoS (in theory…) But does any of this really move the needle?December 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  27. 27. Some myths to avoid for WebRTCA quick diversion to some pet topics of mine:Quality & QoS WiFi Impending quali-pocalypse  “Seamless connection” Users appear to care less  HetNets than expected  Mobile carriers are very  Some high-Q use cases (eg sales call) important or in control  Internet vs. non-Internet  The user & operator are the Quality driven by much only stakeholders more than network  Eg Coverage (esp for LTE)December 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  28. 28. Main WebRTC strategies for SPs Perpetuate legacy models “Put lipstick on a pig” – eg RCS Extend on- net services Enhance Turbocharge Improves developer Telco-OTT platform apps relevance… but Lower revenue? costs/complexity & improve reach & Sell “virality” packaged Sell genuine “new WebRTC services to stuff” to existing subscriber Also: invest / incubate audienceDecember 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  29. 29. Conclusions: WebRTC & SPs No definitive answers yet Makes the threats worse & the opportunities better  Battle new OTTs or old ones: result is the same Extending “reach” for poor services doesn’t help SPs need to exploit WebRTC to create or resell Avoid the “federation trap” Manage diverse internal stakeholders & teams  WebRTC will be pervasive across telco “domains” Be nimbleContact information@disruptive-analysis.com for information on workshops & consultingprojects about WebRTC & Future of Voice. Watch for upcoming reports & subscribe to theDisruptive Wireless blog http://disruptivewireless.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscribe-via-email.htmlDecember 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  30. 30. www.disruptive-analysis.comdisruptivewireless.blogspot.com@disruptivedeaninformation@disruptive-analysis.comSkype:disruptiveanalysisContact information@disruptive-analysis.com for information on workshops & consultingprojects about WebRTC & Future of Voice. Watch for upcoming reports & subscribe to theDisruptive Wireless blog http://disruptivewireless.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscribe-via-email.html December 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012

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