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Dean Bubley presentation at Ofcom Mapping The Future 2019 Spectrum Conference


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Presentation given by Dean Bubley of Disruptive Analysis at UK telecom regulator Ofcom's 2019 "Mapping the Future" Spectrum conference in London.

15-minute introduction as part of a forward-looking panel session on possible future 10yr+ visions. Disruptive Analysis presented alongside speakers/panellists from Google & FCC

Slides cover future wireless use-cases, potential for future spectum rules & 6G design goals to be energy/CO2-centred, raises questions about harmonisation, and notes that planned use-cases and deployments often overstate near-term potential.

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Dean Bubley presentation at Ofcom Mapping The Future 2019 Spectrum Conference

  1. 1. Wireless Disruptors & Implications for Spectrum Mgmt Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis Ofcom “Mapping the Future”, September 2019 @disruptivedean Image credits: / Dean Bubley
  2. 2. Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019 September 2019 bpd bps Gbps 10m Non- critical Function- critical 90% 99% 99.9% Rural Unlicensed Spectrum 3D Coverage Bandwidth Kbps Importance Business- critical Safety- critical Range <1m Mbps And also: Latency Deterministic Power source Socioeconomic Geopolitical Security model Mobility Integration Bi-directional Protocols Lobbying power 1km >10km 100m 4G / 5G / LPWA / Satellite / TVWS / .11ah Wi-Fi 5, 6, 7, ay Biz Model CSP Private Amenity Community Decentralised Indoor Many dimensions for future wireless Shared Secondary Local Exclusive Licenses Sensed National Dynamic
  3. 3. Future spectrum management: Environmental & CO2 angle Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019September 2019 6G system- wider design goals 5G power consump- tion Changing weather & mmWave New use- cases Resource needs direct / indirect Balancing frequency, MIMO, power etc
  4. 4. From sharing to dynamic spectrum to realtime MNO-aaS Static allocations • National MNOs • P2P licenses • Manual processes • High costs / auction model • SP-led focus Basic Spectrum Sharing • Local / private / neutral MNOs • Some manual, some SAS-based (CBRS) • Some innovators Automated / dynamic sharing • Spectrum market- places inc. 2ndary • Basic APIs • Non realtime • Expert buyers / integrators Full Network-aaS • MNO design / operation from cloud • Spectrum, RAN, core, SIM, transport • Looks like a toolkit • Broad channels to market Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019September 2019
  5. 5. Will harmonisation be as important in future, as in the past? Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019September 2019September 2019 (…. and SDR)
  6. 6. Politics & practicalities Patchiness, costs, glitches, skills, OSS/BSS etc Substitutes, margin pressure obsolescence Biz case & products Adoption & ecosystem Distractions & Disruptions: Spectrum & market timing Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019September 2019 Hype begins Pilots & PoCs Commercial launch Scale & profitability Concept Prototypes Hype begins PoC paralysis Commercial launch late Smaller scale & lower profitability Concept Prototypes Internal Distractions Initial unrealistic assumptions on timing External Disruptions
  7. 7. Other areas to consider ◼ Device SDR ◼ Blockchain ◼ Intra-device wireless connections  Very-short range wireless (eg on-chip) ◼ Better 3-dimensional spectrum rights, maps & tools ◼ More device-to-device comms ◼ Post-Brexit divergence on spectrum ◼ Redefining ITU’s IMT definition beyond just “services” Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019September 2019
  8. 8. @disruptivedean Skype:disruptiveanalysis Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019September 2019