Wireless Disruptors & Implications for Spectrum Mgmt
Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
Ofcom “Mapping the Future”, September 2019
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean
Image credits: Pixabay.com / Dean Bubley
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019
September 2019
bpd
bps
Gbps
10m
Non-
critical
Function-
critical
90%
99%
99.9%
Rural
Unlicensed
Spectrum
3D
Coverage
Bandwidth
Kbps
Importance
Business-
critical
Safety-
critical
Range
<1m
Mbps
And also:
Latency
Deterministic
Power source
Socioeconomic
Geopolitical
Security model
Mobility
Integration
Bi-directional
Protocols
Lobbying power
1km
>10km
100m
4G / 5G / LPWA / Satellite
/ TVWS / .11ah
Wi-Fi 5, 6, 7, ay
Biz Model
CSP
Private
Amenity
Community
Decentralised
Indoor
Many dimensions for future wireless
Shared
Secondary
Local
Exclusive
Licenses
Sensed
National
Dynamic
Future spectrum management: Environmental & CO2 angle
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019September 2019
6G system-
wider
design
goals
5G power
consump-
tion
Changing
weather &
mmWave
New use-
cases
Resource
needs
direct /
indirect
Balancing
frequency,
MIMO,
power etc
From sharing to dynamic spectrum to realtime MNO-aaS
Static allocations
• National MNOs
• P2P licenses
• Manual processes
• High costs / auction
model
• SP-led focus
Basic Spectrum
Sharing
• Local / private /
neutral MNOs
• Some manual, some
SAS-based (CBRS)
• Some innovators
Automated /
dynamic sharing
• Spectrum market-
places inc. 2ndary
• Basic APIs
• Non realtime
• Expert buyers /
integrators
Full Network-aaS
• MNO design /
operation from cloud
• Spectrum, RAN,
core, SIM, transport
• Looks like a toolkit
• Broad channels to
market
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019September 2019
Will harmonisation be as important in future, as in the past?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019September 2019September 2019
(…. and SDR)
Politics & practicalities
Patchiness, costs, glitches,
skills, OSS/BSS etc
Substitutes,
margin pressure
obsolescence
Biz case &
products
Adoption &
ecosystem
Distractions & Disruptions: Spectrum & market timing
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019September 2019
Hype begins
Pilots &
PoCs
Commercial
launch
Scale &
profitability
Concept
Prototypes
Hype begins PoC
paralysis
Commercial
launch late
Smaller scale &
lower profitability
Concept
Prototypes
Internal Distractions
Initial unrealistic
assumptions on timing
External Disruptions
Other areas to consider
◼ Device SDR
◼ Blockchain
◼ Intra-device wireless connections
 Very-short range wireless (eg on-chip)
◼ Better 3-dimensional spectrum rights, maps & tools
◼ More device-to-device comms
◼ Post-Brexit divergence on spectrum
◼ Redefining ITU’s IMT definition beyond just “services”
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019September 2019
www.deanbubley.com
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
@disruptivedean
https://www.linkedin.com/in/deanbubley/
https://soundcloud.com/user-521594836
information@disruptive-analysis.com
Skype:disruptiveanalysis
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019September 2019

Dean Bubley presentation at Ofcom Mapping The Future 2019 Spectrum Conference

  • 1.
    Wireless Disruptors &Implications for Spectrum Mgmt Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis Ofcom “Mapping the Future”, September 2019 dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean Image credits: Pixabay.com / Dean Bubley
  • 2.
    Copyright Disruptive AnalysisLtd 2019 September 2019 bpd bps Gbps 10m Non- critical Function- critical 90% 99% 99.9% Rural Unlicensed Spectrum 3D Coverage Bandwidth Kbps Importance Business- critical Safety- critical Range <1m Mbps And also: Latency Deterministic Power source Socioeconomic Geopolitical Security model Mobility Integration Bi-directional Protocols Lobbying power 1km >10km 100m 4G / 5G / LPWA / Satellite / TVWS / .11ah Wi-Fi 5, 6, 7, ay Biz Model CSP Private Amenity Community Decentralised Indoor Many dimensions for future wireless Shared Secondary Local Exclusive Licenses Sensed National Dynamic
  • 3.
    Future spectrum management:Environmental & CO2 angle Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019September 2019 6G system- wider design goals 5G power consump- tion Changing weather & mmWave New use- cases Resource needs direct / indirect Balancing frequency, MIMO, power etc
  • 4.
    From sharing todynamic spectrum to realtime MNO-aaS Static allocations • National MNOs • P2P licenses • Manual processes • High costs / auction model • SP-led focus Basic Spectrum Sharing • Local / private / neutral MNOs • Some manual, some SAS-based (CBRS) • Some innovators Automated / dynamic sharing • Spectrum market- places inc. 2ndary • Basic APIs • Non realtime • Expert buyers / integrators Full Network-aaS • MNO design / operation from cloud • Spectrum, RAN, core, SIM, transport • Looks like a toolkit • Broad channels to market Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019September 2019
  • 5.
    Will harmonisation beas important in future, as in the past? Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019September 2019September 2019 (…. and SDR)
  • 6.
    Politics & practicalities Patchiness,costs, glitches, skills, OSS/BSS etc Substitutes, margin pressure obsolescence Biz case & products Adoption & ecosystem Distractions & Disruptions: Spectrum & market timing Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019September 2019 Hype begins Pilots & PoCs Commercial launch Scale & profitability Concept Prototypes Hype begins PoC paralysis Commercial launch late Smaller scale & lower profitability Concept Prototypes Internal Distractions Initial unrealistic assumptions on timing External Disruptions
  • 7.
    Other areas toconsider ◼ Device SDR ◼ Blockchain ◼ Intra-device wireless connections  Very-short range wireless (eg on-chip) ◼ Better 3-dimensional spectrum rights, maps & tools ◼ More device-to-device comms ◼ Post-Brexit divergence on spectrum ◼ Redefining ITU’s IMT definition beyond just “services” Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019September 2019
  • 8.