6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 Integrative Risk Management - Towards Resilient Cities. 28 August - 01 September 2016 in Davos, Switzerland

1. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Qualitative risk assessment for Business Continuity
Management in Sungkyunkwan University
Jeong Hwan KWON, Interdisciplinary Program in Crisis, Disaster and Risk
Management, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon, Republic of Korea.

2. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Contents
• Background
• How to Perform Research
• Identifying risks
• Determining the criteria
• Determining the factor
• Risk assessment
• Fault Tree Analysis
• Conclusion

3. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Background
holistic management process that identifies potential threats to an organization and the impacts to
business operations those threats, if realized, might cause, and which provides a framework for
building organizational resilience with the capability of an effective response that safeguards the
interests of its key stakeholders, reputation, brand and value-creating activities Source : ISO 22301
Business Continuity Management, BCM
2001 World Trade Center 9/11Black Swan theory Hurricane Katrina

4. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
How to Perform Research
Identifying risks that may occur in university
Determining the criteria of risk impact, frequency and mitigation levels
Determining each risk Impact(I), Frequency(F), Mitigation level(M)
Estimating each Risk score(R)
Performing FTA(Fault Tree Analysis)

5. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Identifying risks
No Risk Type scenario
1 Fire A classroom fire
2 Fire A floor fire
3 Fire A single building fire
4 Hazardous Materials Hazardous Materials-Small
5 Hazardous Materials Hazardous Materials-Medium
6 Hazardous Materials Hazardous Materials-Large
7 IT outage Blackout
8 IT outage Cyber Terrorism
9 IT outage Other physical damage
10 Epidemic Small impact
11 Epidemic Large impact
12 Building collapse Building collapse
13 Flooded buildings Typhoon or heavy rain
14 Terrorism Destroyed building
15 Terrorism University closed
16 War Korean war
17 Earthquake Low magnitude
18 Earthquake Moderate magnitude
19 Earthquake High magnitude
Event Category
Aircraft Crash Human/Technology
Communication Outage Human/Technology
Diablo Canyon-Precautionary Human/Technology
Diablo Canyon-Disaster Human/Technology
Hazardous Materials-Small Human/Technology
Hazardous Materials-Medium Human/Technology
Hazardous Materials-Large Human/Technology
IT outage (Network/internet) Human/Technology
Train Accident Human/Technology
Utility Failure Human/Technology
Building damage/Structural Collapse Natural
Disease outbreak/pandemic Natural
Earthquake-Low magnitude Natural
Earthquake-Moderate magnitude Natural
Earthquake-High magnitude Natural
Extreme Weather Natural
Fire-single building Natural
Fire-multiple building Natural
Fire-Off campus requiring evacuation Natural
Floods-Streets Natural
Flood-single building Natural
Flood-multiple buildings Natural
Tainted water supply Natural
Armed conflict (War) Proactive Threat
Civil Disorder Proactive Threat
IT Security Breach Proactive Threat
Terrorism-Active threat Proactive Threat
Terrorism-Damaged building (s) Proactive Threat
Terrorism-Extreme: Campus Closure Proactive Threat
Example of Cal Poly University This study

6. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Determining the criteria
Level Frequency criteria Impact criteria Mitigation level criteria
1
Be Occurred every year in Sungkyunkwan
University.
Within 1 day Do not care.
2
Occurred more than once in Sungkyunkwan
University.
1~3 days Perfunctory training and equipment
3
Not occurred in Sungkyunkwan University,
but occurred in university in Korea.
4~7 days Insufficiency of training and equipment
4
Not occurred in Korea, but occurred in
university abroad.
1~2 weeks Insufficiency of training or equipment
5 Hardly ever occurred More than 2 weeks Sufficiency of training and equipment

7. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Determining the factor
No Risk Type scenario Frequency Impact
Mitigation
level
Risk score
1 Fire A classroom fire 4 2 2 2
2 Fire A floor fire 4 2 2 2
3 Fire A single building fire 3 3 2 2.25
4 Hazardous Materials Hazardous Materials-Small 4 1 2 1
5 Hazardous Materials Hazardous Materials-Medium 3 2 2 1.5
6 Hazardous Materials Hazardous Materials-Large 2 3 2 1.5
7 IT outage Blackout 3 2 3 0.67
8 IT outage Cyber Terrorism 3 4 3 1.33
9 IT outage Other physical damage 3 4 3 1.33
10 Epidemic Small impact 3 2 2 1.5
11 Epidemic Large impact 3 5 2 3.75
12 Building collapse Building collapse 1 5 2 1.25
13 Flooded buildings Typhoon or heavy rain 1 3 2 0.75
14 Terrorism Destroyed building 1 5 2 1.25
15 Terrorism University closed 1 5 2 1.25
16 War Korean war 1 5 2 1.25
17 Earthquake Low magnitude 1 1 2 0.25
18 Earthquake Moderate magnitude 1 3 2 0.75
19 Earthquake High magnitude 1 5 2 1.25

8. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
SMART Risk
Source : Jim Burtles (2007),
Principles and Practice of Business
Continuity: Tools and Techniques.
R =
𝐼 × 𝐹
𝑀2

9. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Risk assessment
No Risk Type scenario
Risk
score
1 Fire A classroom fire 2
2 Fire A floor fire 2
3 Fire A single building fire 2.25
4
Hazardous
Materials
Hazardous Materials-
Small
1
5
Hazardous
Materials
Hazardous Materials-
Medium
1.5
6
Hazardous
Materials
Hazardous Materials-
Large
1.5
7 IT outage Blackout 0.67
8 IT outage Cyber Terrorism 1.33
9 IT outage Other physical damage 1.33
10 Epidemic Small impact 1.5
11 Epidemic Large impact 3.75
12
Building
collapse
Building collapse 1.25
13
Flooded
buildings
Typhoon or heavy rain 0.75
14 Terrorism Destroyed building 1.25
15 Terrorism University closed 1.25
16 War Korean war 1.25
17 Earthquake Low magnitude 0.25
18 Earthquake Moderate magnitude 0.75
19 Earthquake High magnitude 1.25

10. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
FTA(Fault Tree Analysis)

11. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Conclusion
• There are many risks in University.
• Insufficient equipment and training.
• University is always open.
• It requires the performing systematic risk assessment and the
introduction of business continuity management.

12. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Thank you
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