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WIR SCHAFFEN WISSEN – HEUTE FÜR MORGEN
Towards a Safe, Secure and Sustainable Energy Supply: The
Role of Resilience in a H...
 Concepts and Methodological Framework
- From Risk Assessment to Resilience Management
- Security of Supply and Sustainab...
Safe, Secure & Sustainable Energy Supply (S3)
Page 3
Random accidents
 Technical failures
 Natural hazards
Intentional a...
A conflict of objectives?
US President Gerald Ford in 1975:
• „We, the United States, are not blameless. Our growing depen...
Page 5
• In ecology, the concept of resilience has been
introduced in 1973 by Holling.
• Resilience is the “the magnitude ...
Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) 1/2
Page 6
•Two main phases of MCDA  Structuring and Evaluation
•Many important c...
Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) 2/2
Page 7
 Framework for aggregating multi-disciplinary
indicators, i.e. integra...
Module 2.1: Assessing and Measuring Energy Systems Resilience
 http://frs.ethz.ch/module/m2-1-energy-system-accident-risk...
Case Study: EU Project SECURE
Page 9
 15 partners, 11 countries
 http://cordis.europa.eu/result/rcn/55344_en.html
Securi...
SECURE Policy Scenarios
Page 10
Basic scenarios
Shock scenarios
Baseline (BL) Muddling Through
(MT)
Europe Alone (EA) Glob...
MCDA Indicators
Page 11
Criteria / Indicator Description (Unit)
ENVIRONMENT CO2 Emissions World Worldwide CO2 emissions pe...
Indicator Hierarchy
Page 12
Source:Eckleetal.(2011)
• Weighted Sum Algorithm: transparent and simple way to calculate rank...
• Among basic scenarios, performance increases with more stringent CO2-policies.
• Nuclear shock scenarios are worse than ...
Environmentally-Centered Case
Page 14
• Unsurprisingly, scenario performance increases with more stringent CO2-policies.
•...
Economy-Centered Case
Page 15
• This profile favors scenarios with no or weak CO2-policies.
• FT scenarios with shocks per...
Socially-Centered Case
Page 16
• This profile favors scenarios with reduced use of fossil, i.e. FT and fossil fuel price
s...
Security of Supply Centered Case
Page 17
• Scenarios with no or weak CO2-policies perform worst.
• The reason is the large...
 No single scenario meets all sustainability and security of supply criteria used
in SECURE; thus, trade-offs are inevita...
Page 19
Wir schaffen Wissen – heute für morgen
Thank you
for your attention!
Questions?
Laboratory for Energy Systems Anal...
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Towards a safe, secure and sustainable energy supply the role of resilience in a holistic and integrated framework, Peter BURGHERR

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6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 Integrative Risk Management - Towards Resilient Cities. 28 August - 01 September 2016 in Davos, Switzerland

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Towards a safe, secure and sustainable energy supply the role of resilience in a holistic and integrated framework, Peter BURGHERR

  1. 1. WIR SCHAFFEN WISSEN – HEUTE FÜR MORGEN Towards a Safe, Secure and Sustainable Energy Supply: The Role of Resilience in a Holistic and Integrated Framework P. Burgherr, S. Hirschberg, M. Spada, P. Eckle :: Paul Scherrer Institut 30 August 2016
  2. 2.  Concepts and Methodological Framework - From Risk Assessment to Resilience Management - Security of Supply and Sustainability - Resilience - Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) - Future Resilient Systems (FRS) Program  Case Study: EU Project SECURE - Policy Scenarios - MCDA Indicators - Selected Preference Profiles - Conclusions Content Page 2
  3. 3. Safe, Secure & Sustainable Energy Supply (S3) Page 3 Random accidents  Technical failures  Natural hazards Intentional attacks  Vandalism, sabotage, theft  Piracy  Terrorism Black Swans:  Lack of knowledge Perfect Storms  Randomness  Environment, Economy, Society  Time: today – future  Space: North – South/East  Availability  Acceptability  Accessibility  Affordability  Services to society  Exposed to multiple threats  Interdependencies; increased vulnerability  Disruptions may cascade  No single owner/operator/regulator
  4. 4. A conflict of objectives? US President Gerald Ford in 1975: • „We, the United States, are not blameless. Our growing dependence upon foreign resources has been adding to our vulnerability for years and years, and we did nothing to prepare ourselves for such an event as the embargo of 1973.“ • „Within the next 10 years my program envisions 200 major nuclear power plants, 250 major new coal mines, 150 major coal –fired power plants, 30 major new refineries, 20 major new synthetic fuel plants, the drilling of many thousands of new wells, the insulation of 18 million homes and the manufacturing and sale of millions of new automobiles, trucks and buses that use much less fuel.“ Security of Supply and Sustainability Page 4
  5. 5. Page 5 • In ecology, the concept of resilience has been introduced in 1973 by Holling. • Resilience is the “the magnitude of disturbance that can be absorbed before the system changes its structure …” • The adaptive cycle schematically represents the four distinct ecosystem phases: - Growth or exploitation (r) - Conservation (K) - Collapse or release (Ω) - Reorganization (α) Source:HollingandGunderson(2002) Resilience (National Academy of Sciences) • Ability to prepare and plan for, absorb, recover from, and more successfully adapt to adverse events. • Risk analysis quantifies probability that the system will reach the lowest point of the critical functionality. • Risk management helps the system prepare and plan for adverse events. • Resilience management integrates the temporal capacity of a system to absorb and recover from adverse events, and then adapt . Linkov et al. (2014), Nature Climate Change Resilience
  6. 6. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) 1/2 Page 6 •Two main phases of MCDA  Structuring and Evaluation •Many important concepts of MCDA are present in the letter: conflicting criteria, uncertainty, pairwise comparisons, value judgments, compensation, weights, aggregation etc. Letter of Benjamin Franklin to his friend Joseph Priestly (1772)
  7. 7. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) 2/2 Page 7  Framework for aggregating multi-disciplinary indicators, i.e. integration of the various quantitative technology performance measures  Has the capability to explicitly reflect subjective social acceptance issues.  Enables to account for a wide variety of environmental, economic and social aspects (the 3 pillar model of sustainability) supplemented by the security of supply in a transparent manner.  Provides an invaluable support to informed decision-making  Helps guiding a public debate and participative processes.  Illustrates the sensitivity of the ranking to subjective preferences provided by the various individual or group stakeholders. Subjective & Objective elements
  8. 8. Module 2.1: Assessing and Measuring Energy Systems Resilience  http://frs.ethz.ch/module/m2-1-energy-system-accident-risks-and-indicators/ Future Resilient Systems (FRS) Program Page 8 Source: Sun, Lustenberger, Gasser, Kim, Burgherr, Spada, Hirschberg (2016)
  9. 9. Case Study: EU Project SECURE Page 9  15 partners, 11 countries  http://cordis.europa.eu/result/rcn/55344_en.html Security of Energy Considering its Uncertainty, Risk and Economic implications
  10. 10. SECURE Policy Scenarios Page 10 Basic scenarios Shock scenarios Baseline (BL) Muddling Through (MT) Europe Alone (EA) Global Regime – Full Trade (FT) No climate policy Non-coordinated, low profile climate policies (Copenhagen forever) Climate policy with target of reducing GHG emissions by 60% in 2050 compared to 1990 levels only in Europe Cap & Trade: FT1: two global markets for CO2 (industrialized. vs. developing countries) FT2: fully integrated, global market for CO2 Nuclear accident Subsequent phase out of nuclear power (Nuc) BL Nuc MT Nuc - FT Nuc Fossil fuel price Shock (Sh) BL Sh MT Sh EA Sh - No Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) - MT CCS EA CCS FT CCS Source: Eckle et al. (2011)
  11. 11. MCDA Indicators Page 11 Criteria / Indicator Description (Unit) ENVIRONMENT CO2 Emissions World Worldwide CO2 emissions per capita (t CO2 / capita) CO2 Emissions EU 27 EU 27 CO2 emissions per capita(t CO2 / capita) ECONOMY Energy Expenditure World Worldwide energy expenditure per Gross Domestic Product (USD / GDP) Energy Expenditure EU 27 EU 27 energy expenditure per Gross Domestic Product (USD / GDP) SOCIAL Severe Accidents Risk from severe accidents Average Number of Fatalities Cumulated expected number of fatalities from severe (≥5 fatalities) accidents worldwide in fossil (coal, oil, gas), hydro and nuclear energy chains (fatalities / year) Consequences of Worst Accident Maximum fatalities from severe (≥5 fatalities) accidents worldwide in fossil (coal, oil, gas), hydro and nuclear energy chains (Fatalities Oil Spills Oil spill risk is assumed to scale linearly with the amounts of oil used, so the indicator scales with the amount of oil used globally (Mt) Terrorism Risk Cumulated terrorism risk for EU 27, based on attack scenarios for a European Pressurized Reactor (EPR), hydropower dam, refinery and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Terminal (fatalities) SECURITY OF SUPPLY Diversity EU 27 Consumption Shannon-Wiener diversity index of EU 27 gross inland energy consumption (Mtoe) for the different energy carriers (Factor) Share of energy imports EU 27 Ratio of Primary Production (Mtoe) / Gross Inland Consumption (Mtoe) in EU 27 (Factor) Diversity of Resources Shannon-Wiener diversity index of net exporters from 23 world regions in oil, gas and coal markets Diversity World Oil Market Shannon-Wiener diversity index of net oil exporters (Mtoe) from 23 world regions in POLES (Factor Diversity World Gas Market Shannon-Wiener diversity index of net gas exporters from 23 world regions in POLES (Factor) Diversity World Coal Market Shannon-Wiener diversity index of net coal exporters from 23 world regions in POLES (Factor) Source:Eckleetal.(2011)
  12. 12. Indicator Hierarchy Page 12 Source:Eckleetal.(2011) • Weighted Sum Algorithm: transparent and simple way to calculate ranking. • Weights w1 to wm are multiplied with respective rescaled indicators (sij) and summed up for each alternative. • Alternatives are then ranked and the higher the value, the better it performs.
  13. 13. • Among basic scenarios, performance increases with more stringent CO2-policies. • Nuclear shock scenarios are worse than related basic scenarios, CCS shock scenarios are about the same, and price shock scenarios perform better. Equal Weighting Case Page 13 Source:Burgherretal.(2016)
  14. 14. Environmentally-Centered Case Page 14 • Unsurprisingly, scenario performance increases with more stringent CO2-policies. • The price shock scenarios perform well, whereas failure of CCS and nuclear accident scenarios perform badly. Source:Burgherretal.(2016)
  15. 15. Economy-Centered Case Page 15 • This profile favors scenarios with no or weak CO2-policies. • FT scenarios with shocks perform worst because they lead to a high output of the then expensive CO2. Source:Burgherretal.(2016)
  16. 16. Socially-Centered Case Page 16 • This profile favors scenarios with reduced use of fossil, i.e. FT and fossil fuel price shock scenarios. Source:Burgherretal.(2016)
  17. 17. Security of Supply Centered Case Page 17 • Scenarios with no or weak CO2-policies perform worst. • The reason is the larger share of fossil energy use in this case. • Import dependence decreases with progressively stronger CO2-policies. Source:Burgherretal.(2016)
  18. 18.  No single scenario meets all sustainability and security of supply criteria used in SECURE; thus, trade-offs are inevitable.  Given balance between environmental, economic, social and security of supply criteria, the global regime climate regime scenarios (without shocks) perform best while the baseline scenario is consequently worst.  This result is with two exceptions quite stable with respect to the variations of preferences: - Economy-centered profiles. - Aversion towards worst consequences of severe accidents.  Under the assumptions made in the SECURE project the global regime scenarios are highly vulnerable to shocks in form of a very severe nuclear accident and/or failure to implement carbon capture and storage on a large scale.  There are clear synergies between protection of climate and security of supply. Meeting ambitious GHG-emission reduction goals by means of successful de- carbonization of the energy supply system through expansion of renewables, nuclear and CCS, combined with very extensive efficiency improvements, is also highly beneficial for security of supply. Conclusions Page 18
  19. 19. Page 19 Wir schaffen Wissen – heute für morgen Thank you for your attention! Questions? Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis (LEA) Technology Assessment Group (TAG) http://www.psi.ch/ta peter.burgherr@psi.ch

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