6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 Integrative Risk Management - Towards Resilient Cities. 28 August - 01 September 2016 in Davos, Switzerland

1. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
The Relocation Challenges in
Coastal Urban Centers: Options and
Limitations
Anamaria Bukvic, PhD
Virginia Tech
United States

2. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
And more nuisance

3. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Access and commuting nuisance

4. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Credit: Union of Concerned Scientists
1970-2012
Sources: UCS ANALYSIS; Morales and Alsheimer 2014; NOAA tides and
currents 2014; NOAA tides and currents 2013B

5. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Response options

6. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
“The First Official Climate Refugees in the U.S. Race Against
Time” National Geographic, May 25, 2016
PHOTOGRAPH BY CAROLYN VAN HOUTEN, NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC

7. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
“727 People on Chesapeake Bay Island Could Become America’s
First 'Climate Refugees‘” Live Science, December 11, 2016

8. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
“Alaskan Villagers May Become First ‘Climate Change Refugees’ As
Town Swallowed By Rising Sea” Mintpress News, August 18, 2016

9. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
New York – New Jersey
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. Census Bureau since 2012

10. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Projected flooding
Source: Global Change Information System

11. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Same places, same risks
Dale Gerhard/Press of Atlantic City via AP

12. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Buyout Program
• NY Gov. A. Cuomo’s Buyout and Acquisition Program ($171m)
• Full pre-storm fair market value in 500-year floodplain
damaged >50%
• Incentives:
– 5% staying locally (within County)
– 10% for very high risk/enhanced areas
– 10% for collective/neighborhood level relocation
• Purchased 1,200 properties: 500 open space, rest resold
“The one thing you absolutely have to
avoid is the jigsaw or jack-o’-lantern effect,
where you have lot, home, lot, home,
home, lot, home,” said James Rubin, the
director of New York Rising.
- The New York Times

13. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Joint effort
FOX BEACH 165
OAKWOOD BEACH
foxbeach165.com/

14. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Virginia Beach – Norfolk – Newport News
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. Census Bureau since 2012
Norfolk, Virginia Beach, Portsmouth, Chesapeake, Suffolk,
Hampton, Poquoson, Newport News, and Gloucester

15. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Norfolk 1933
“Water wants to go where it used to go”
Panelist at Show Me the Money: The Economic Realities of Responding to Coastal Change and Adaption in Virginia,
November 13, 2015, Virginia Coastal Policy Clinic

16. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Norfolk 2016

17. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Norfolk 2100
Source: Greenhouse Effect and Sea Level Rise: America
Starts to Prepare

18. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Conclusions
• Important to understand the context
• NY/NJ : Disaster exposure affected risk perceptions
Inadequate recovery facilitated relocation
Other stressors contributed
• Norfolk: Storm surge risk high but SLR hazard higher
Regional partnership – cohesive efforts
Living with water innovation
• Neighbourhood level profile dictates responses
• Impact on the locality

19. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Thank you
Acknowledgements
Special thanks to James Redick, the Director of the Department
for Emergency Preparedness and Response, the City of Norfolk
for collaboration and flood photographs.