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The Relocation Challenges in Coastal Urban Centers Options and Limitations, Anamaria BUKVIC

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6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 Integrative Risk Management - Towards Resilient Cities. 28 August - 01 September 2016 in Davos, Switzerland

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The Relocation Challenges in Coastal Urban Centers Options and Limitations, Anamaria BUKVIC

  1. 1. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org The Relocation Challenges in Coastal Urban Centers: Options and Limitations Anamaria Bukvic, PhD Virginia Tech United States
  2. 2. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org And more nuisance
  3. 3. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Access and commuting nuisance
  4. 4. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Credit: Union of Concerned Scientists 1970-2012 Sources: UCS ANALYSIS; Morales and Alsheimer 2014; NOAA tides and currents 2014; NOAA tides and currents 2013B
  5. 5. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Response options
  6. 6. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org “The First Official Climate Refugees in the U.S. Race Against Time” National Geographic, May 25, 2016 PHOTOGRAPH BY CAROLYN VAN HOUTEN, NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC
  7. 7. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org “727 People on Chesapeake Bay Island Could Become America’s First 'Climate Refugees‘” Live Science, December 11, 2016
  8. 8. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org “Alaskan Villagers May Become First ‘Climate Change Refugees’ As Town Swallowed By Rising Sea” Mintpress News, August 18, 2016
  9. 9. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org New York – New Jersey U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. Census Bureau since 2012
  10. 10. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Projected flooding Source: Global Change Information System
  11. 11. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Same places, same risks Dale Gerhard/Press of Atlantic City via AP
  12. 12. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Buyout Program • NY Gov. A. Cuomo’s Buyout and Acquisition Program ($171m) • Full pre-storm fair market value in 500-year floodplain damaged >50% • Incentives: – 5% staying locally (within County) – 10% for very high risk/enhanced areas – 10% for collective/neighborhood level relocation • Purchased 1,200 properties: 500 open space, rest resold “The one thing you absolutely have to avoid is the jigsaw or jack-o’-lantern effect, where you have lot, home, lot, home, home, lot, home,” said James Rubin, the director of New York Rising. - The New York Times
  13. 13. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Joint effort FOX BEACH 165 OAKWOOD BEACH foxbeach165.com/
  14. 14. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Virginia Beach – Norfolk – Newport News U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. Census Bureau since 2012 Norfolk, Virginia Beach, Portsmouth, Chesapeake, Suffolk, Hampton, Poquoson, Newport News, and Gloucester
  15. 15. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Norfolk 1933 “Water wants to go where it used to go” Panelist at Show Me the Money: The Economic Realities of Responding to Coastal Change and Adaption in Virginia, November 13, 2015, Virginia Coastal Policy Clinic
  16. 16. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Norfolk 2016
  17. 17. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Norfolk 2100 Source: Greenhouse Effect and Sea Level Rise: America Starts to Prepare
  18. 18. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Conclusions • Important to understand the context • NY/NJ : Disaster exposure affected risk perceptions Inadequate recovery facilitated relocation Other stressors contributed • Norfolk: Storm surge risk high but SLR hazard higher Regional partnership – cohesive efforts Living with water innovation • Neighbourhood level profile dictates responses • Impact on the locality
  19. 19. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Thank you Acknowledgements Special thanks to James Redick, the Director of the Department for Emergency Preparedness and Response, the City of Norfolk for collaboration and flood photographs.

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