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6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Vulnerability paths of cascading
disasters
Gianluca Pescaroli, University College London,
UK
Prof. David Alexander, UCL, UK
Pescaroli, G., Alexander, D. (2016). Critical infrastructure, panarchies and
the vulnerability paths of cascading disasters. NATURAL HAZARDS, 82
(1), 175-192. doi:10.1007/s11069-016-2186-3
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Aim: understand cascading disasters in terms of
root causes and unpredictability
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Let’s face it: climate is changing, societies are
changing, needs are changing and disasters are
changing. It is the context that evolves.
Non linear and globally
networked risks, reduced
predictability (Helbing 2005-
Now)
Ecological, cross border
crisis (Galaz et al. 2011,
Boin 2007-Now)
 Climate change and
compound events.
Interconnected hazards
(Gill et. al 2014-Now)
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Going beyond the “toppling
dominoes” metaphor
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
…We understood that…
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Scaling up, Scottie!
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Vulnerability paths
Cascading are not just the results of coincidences of low
provability high impact events , but are rooted in society,
policies and management. Escalation process has non
linear feedbacks that could be addressed.
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
…Simplified looks like…
“Is the problem just something
that never occurred to the
designer”?
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Applications: from risk to vulnerability scenarios
Identify and assess the sensible nodes
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Pescaroli et al . (2016?) M.OR.D.OR scenario  to be
submitted soon
This could look like…
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Limitations and challenges
 This requires
coordination, information
sharing, and trust building
 In line with Helbing
Clustering, clustering and
more clustering
 Linkages between
physical and social
vulnerability
 Assessing the impact of
disruptions: how?
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Please get in touch www.ucl.ac.uk/rdr/cascading
And…

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Critical Infrastructure, Panarchies and the Vulnerability Paths of Cascading Disasters, Gianluca PESCAROLI

  • 1. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Vulnerability paths of cascading disasters Gianluca Pescaroli, University College London, UK Prof. David Alexander, UCL, UK Pescaroli, G., Alexander, D. (2016). Critical infrastructure, panarchies and the vulnerability paths of cascading disasters. NATURAL HAZARDS, 82 (1), 175-192. doi:10.1007/s11069-016-2186-3
  • 2. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Aim: understand cascading disasters in terms of root causes and unpredictability
  • 3. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Let’s face it: climate is changing, societies are changing, needs are changing and disasters are changing. It is the context that evolves. Non linear and globally networked risks, reduced predictability (Helbing 2005- Now) Ecological, cross border crisis (Galaz et al. 2011, Boin 2007-Now)  Climate change and compound events. Interconnected hazards (Gill et. al 2014-Now)
  • 4. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Going beyond the “toppling dominoes” metaphor
  • 5. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org …We understood that…
  • 6. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Scaling up, Scottie!
  • 7. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Vulnerability paths Cascading are not just the results of coincidences of low provability high impact events , but are rooted in society, policies and management. Escalation process has non linear feedbacks that could be addressed.
  • 8. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org …Simplified looks like… “Is the problem just something that never occurred to the designer”?
  • 9. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Applications: from risk to vulnerability scenarios Identify and assess the sensible nodes
  • 10. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Pescaroli et al . (2016?) M.OR.D.OR scenario  to be submitted soon This could look like…
  • 11. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Limitations and challenges  This requires coordination, information sharing, and trust building  In line with Helbing Clustering, clustering and more clustering  Linkages between physical and social vulnerability  Assessing the impact of disruptions: how?
  • 12. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Please get in touch www.ucl.ac.uk/rdr/cascading And…