1. 1
Market Outlook
India Research
October 26, 2010
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
Dealer’s Diary
The key benchmark indices opened the day's session on positive note as strong
quarterly results and a firm trend across the Asian region buoyed up investors’
sentiment. The market edged higher in early trade on firm Asian equities and
extended gains in morning trade. Markets erased some of the mid-session
gains and slipped in early afternoon session. However, the market regained
strength in mid-afternoon trade, with rally seen across high-beta metal, realty,
consumer durables, cement and auto stocks. The market maintained its buoyant
performance to end the day in green, with the Sensex and Nifty gaining 0.7%
each. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices closed with gains of 0.8% and 1%,
respectively. Among the front liners, Cipla, Sterlite, Tata Motors, ACC and
Hindalco Ind. gained 2–4%. Among the top losers, Tata Power, HDFC Bank,
ITC, Infosys and Wipro lost 0.3–4%.
Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 20302 / 6112 levels. If NIFTY trades
above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a
further rally up to 20453 – 20604 / 6158 - 6211 levels. However, if NIFTY
trades below 20302 / 6112 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may
correct up to 20152 – 20000 / 6060 - 6013 levels.
Indices S2 S1 R1 R2
SENSEX 20,000 20,152 20,453 20,604
NIFTY 6,013 6,060 6,158 6,211
News Analysis
IVRCL’s first tryst in international market
BGR Energy bags `2,168cr Thermal Powertech order
Allcargo acquires controlling stake in Hong Kong-based companies
2QFY2011 Result Reviews: HUL, Idea Cellular, Crompton Greaves, Titan,
Petronet LNG, Aventis Pharma, Lakshmi Machine Works, Madras Cements,
Amara Raja
2QFY2011 Result Previews: NTPC, Sterlite, JSW Steel, Bosch, Tech
Mahindra, United Phosphorus, Marico, Dena Bank, Jyoti Structures
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
Net Inflows (October 22, 2010)
` cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTD
FII 3,879 2,500 1,379 22,430 1,10,752
MFs 837 658 179 (5,427) (28,456)
FII Derivatives (October 25, 2010)
` cr Purch Sales Net
Open
Interest
Index Futures 5,714 5,063 651 16,983
Stock Futures 8,031 8,119 (88) 45,966
Gainers / Losers
Gainers Losers
Company Price (`)
chg
(%)
Company Price (`)
chg
(%)
IRB Infra. 262 6.6 Petronet LNG 122 (4.1)
Renuka Sugar 89 5.0 Wipro 430 (4.0)
MTNL 70 4.5 Piramal Health. 495 (3.9)
Hindalco 221 4.3 Mundra Port 165 (3.7)
ACC 1,024 4.0 Ultratech Cem. 1,099 (1.2)
Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
BSE Sensex 0.7% 137.3 20,303
Nifty 0.7% 39.8 6,106
MID CAP 0.8% 64.5 8,490
SMALL CAP 1.0% 102.3 10,826
BSE HC 1.0% 64.9 6,546
BSE PSU 0.3% 35.4 10,472
BANKEX 0.4% 62.7 14,179
AUTO 1.2% 119.8 9,849
METAL 1.1% 186.2 17,209
OIL & GAS 0.6% 68.7 11,049
BSE IT -0.4% (22.5) 6,111
Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
Dow Jones 0.3% 31.5 11,164
NASDAQ 0.5% 11.5 2,491
FTSE 0.2% 10.6 5,752
Nikkei -0.3% (25.5) 9,401
Hang Seng 0.5% 110.4 23,628
Straits Times 0.3% 8.5 3,182
Shanghai Com 2.6% 76.4 3,051
Indian ADRs Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
Infosys -0.6% (0.4) $67.5
Wipro -6.5% (1.0) $14.4
ICICI Bank 0.6% 0.3 $51.5
HDFC Bank -2.6% (4.6) $171.8
Advances / Declines BSE NSE
Advances 1,716 842
Declines 1,290 543
Unchanged 90 41
Volumes (` cr)
BSE 4,813
NSE 14,941

2. October 26, 2010 2
Market Outlook | India Research
IVRCL’s first tryst in international market – A positive move
IVRCL Infrastructure (IVRCL) has forayed into the international market by bagging three
projects – two from Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and one from Nepal – aggregating to
`1,975cr. Two water transmission projects worth `1,800cr are from the Kingdom of Saudi
Arabia and are expected to be executed over 36 months. Further, order worth `175cr by
Nepal Electricity Authority pertains to construction of hydroelectric project with expected
construction period of 42 months. This is IVRCL’s first order in the international market –
following the footsteps of its peers – which adds to diversification. As a strategy, the
company has diversified both in terms of segment (reducing dependence on irrigation by
bagging huge orders in the road segment) and geographies (exposure to AP has reduced
over the last few quarters) over the last 12–18 months, since the AP crisis began, which we
believe would benefit the company in the long run.
We have valued IVRCL on an SOTP basis. The company’s core construction business is
valued at a P/E of 14x FY2012E EPS of `10.9 (`153/share), whereas its stake in
subsidiaries IVR Prime (`49/share) and Hindustan Dorr-Oliver (`14/share) has been
valued on an Mcap basis, post assigning a 30% holding company discount. At the CMP of
`153, the stock is trading at a P/E of 14.1x FY2012E EPS and 1.9x FY2012E P/BV on
standalone basis and adjusting for its subsidiaries at P/E of 8.8x FY2012E EPS and 1.1x
FY2012E P/BV, which we believe is at attractive valuations. Therefore, on the back of the
company’s excellent execution track record, robust order book-to-sales ratio and attractive
valuations, we maintain Buy on the stock with a Target Price of `216.
BGR Energy bags `2,168cr Thermal Powertech order
BGR Energy Systems has secured `2,168cr BoP contract from Thermal Powertech
Corporation India Ltd. for 2x660MW supercritical thermal power project. Thermal
Powertech is promoted by Gayathri Projects, Hyderabad, and Semcorp, Singapore. The
scope of work includes design, engineering, manufacturing, fabrication, assembly,
inspection, testing, transportation, erection of equipment, civil works, structural works,
commissioning and guarantee test for the project at Krishnapatnam in Andhra Pradesh.
The project is funded by Rural Electrification Corporation as the lead lender with
consortium of banks. The financial closure of the project has been achieved. The salient
features of this greenfield project include one of the largest coal handling plants, sea
water-based RO plant and intake water system from the sea for the makeup water to the
plant. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.
Allcargo acquires controlling stake in Hong Kong-based companies
Allcargo Global Logistics Ltd. (AGLL) has announced that in furtherance to the expansion
plans of the Non Vessel Owning Common Carrier (NVOCC) business, its step down wholly
owned subsidiary has acquired business rights and controlling stake in Hong Kong-based
companies engaged in NVOCC business in China and other parts of eastern regions.
AGLL has guided that the aforesaid acquisition would strengthen the EBITDA by adding
approximately US $3.5mn annually (~5.8% of CY2010E EBITDA). Further, AGLL has
acquired two vessels of approximately 6,500 dead weight tonnes each to augment the
project cargo movement business. This would help AGLL to capitalise on the opportunities
in the Indian sub-continent, including costal movement by saving on ship chartering and
hiring charges and in planning and execution of project cargo movements in an efficient
and effective manner. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 10.6x CY2011E EPS. We
maintain a BUY rating on AGLL with a Target Price of `195.

3. October 26, 2010 3
Market Outlook | India Research
Result Reviews – 2QFY2011
HUL
HUL posted modest set of numbers for the quarter, though broadly in line with our
expectations. While top-line growth was marginally above estimates, driven by acceleration
in volume growth to 14% (impressive, given the recent price hikes and 14% qoq dip in ad
spends, though aided by low base of 1% volume growth in 2QFY2010), recurring earnings
declined 7% yoy led by yet another quarter of margin contraction, despite a 14% qoq
decline (13% rise yoy) in ad spends, due to 27% yoy rise in other expenses. Other key
highlights of the results include – 1) 6.3% yoy revenue growth in the S&D segment and a
186bp yoy decline in EBIT margin to 11.7%, 2) detergents and soaps grew ahead of
market and 3) personal products grew 14.7% yoy, sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit
volume led growth. We maintain Reduce on the stock with a revised Target Price of `276.
Idea Cellular
Idea reported its 2QFY2011 results, which were below street as well as our expectation.
Revenue stood flat at `3659cr (v/s our estimate of `3,828cr), which was primarily on the
back of poor MOUs and ARPM. MOU dropped by 5% qoq to 394 minutes (v/s our
estimate of 411 minutes). ARPM also slipped to 0.42 `/min with a 4.5% qoq decline (v/s
our estimate of 0.43 `/min). At the end of the period, the subscriber base stood lower at
74.2mn (v/s our estimate of 74.7mn). EBITDA margin slipped by 32bp qoq to 24% on the
back of poor operational parameters such as MOU and ARPM as well as increased
personnel cost due to wage hike given in July. PAT stood at `179.7cr (v/s our expectation
of `192.5cr) on the back of no growth in revenue and lower profitability.
The operational performance was disappointing with ARPM and MOUs slipping down
steeply. Going forward, the pressure in MOUs will continue as the new operators launch
aggressively in B and C circles. Also, the ARPM will continue to be under pressure. At the
CMP of `72, the stock is trading at EV/EBITDA of 6.7x FY2012 EBITDA. We wait for
management’s commentary on 3G launch as well as outlook on ARPM and MOUs. The
stock is currently under review. We will be releasing a detailed result update shortly.
Crompton Greaves
Crompton Greaves announced its 2QFY2011 results, which were higher than our
estimates on both the top-line (by 4%) and bottom-line (by 18%) fronts. On a consolidated
basis, the company posted top-line growth of 9.5% yoy to `2,399cr (`2,189cr). Revenue
from the power systems segment increased by 6.8% yoy to `1,578cr (`1,477cr), while the
consumer products segment registered strong growth of 23.9% yoy to `463cr (`374cr).
The industrial systems segment also witnessed decent growth of 12.1% yoy at `361cr
(`322cr). The company reported steady EBITDA margins at 13.9% (14%), resulting in the
net profit growing by 10.4% yoy to `213cr (`193cr). We will be revising our estimates post
the conference call.
Titan
Titan Industries declared stellar 2QFY2011 results. Total revenue for the quarter grew by
34% to `1536cr , against our estimate of `1,601cr (4% below our estimate). However,
OPM came in at 11% against our estimate of 9%. Consequently, PAT came in at `128cr,
higher than our estimate. We maintain Neutral on the stock.

4. October 26, 2010 4
Market Outlook | India Research
Petronet LNG
During 2QFY2011, Petronet LNG’s performance was marginally lower than our
expectation on the top-line front, while it was better than our expectation on the EBITDA
and bottom-line fronts. The company reported a 10.2% yoy decline in revenue to `3,058cr
(`3,407cr), which was lower than our expectation of `3,072cr.
Volumes processed during the quarter stood at 99.8TBTU and were marginally below our
expectation of 102.7TBTUs. Volumes were lower by 12.4% yoy, mainly on account of
termination of RGPPL contract (which was present in 2QFY2010). However, on a qoq
basis, volumes increased by 4.9% (95.1TBTU in 4QFY2010).
Realisation during the quarter registered an increase of 2.4% yoy on account of an
increase in LNG prices, which is sourced from Rasgas. Net re-gasification margins during
the quarter rose by 20% yoy to `30.4/mmbtu (`25.3/mmbtu) and were in line with our
expectation. OPM expanded by 144bp yoy to 8.9% (7.4%), resulting in an EBITDA/mmbtu
of `27.2/mmbtu (`22.3/mmbtu), mainly on account of lower other operating expenditure.
On a sequential basis too, EBITDA/mmbtu increased to `27.2/mmbtu (`26.0/mmbtu).
EBITDA during the quarter registered an increase of 7.1% yoy to `272cr (`254cr).
Depreciation during the quarter registered an increase of 8.3% yoy to `47cr (`43cr) on
account of capitalisation of the Dahej terminal. However, interest expenditure declined by
3.1% yoy to `49.5cr (`51.1cr).
Other income during the quarter stood flat at `19cr. However, the same increased on a
sequential basis by 47.6% to `19cr (`13cr). Despite lower-than-expected volume and top-
line performance, better operating performance on account of lower other operating
expenditure and higher-than-expected other income resulted in better-than-expected
bottom-line performance. PBT during the quarter registered an increase of 8.6% yoy to
`194cr (`179cr), whereas PAT registered an increase of 8.7% yoy to `131cr (`111cr) and
was higher than our expectation of `119cr.
Going ahead, we expect demand for spot gas to pick up on account of rollout of the gas
pipeline network by GAIL coupled with slower ramp-up of RIL gas. Currently, the stock is
under review.
Aventis Pharma – 3QCY2010
Aventis Pharma (Aventis) reported its 3QCY2010 results, which were marginally
disappointing and driven by other income. Net sales came in at `276cr (`259cr), up 6.6%
yoy and below our estimates of `285cr. Domestic sales grew by healthy 14.6% yoy to
`232cr (`203cr), while export sales declined sharply by 22.1% to `44cr (`56cr) on the
back of currency appreciation and low volume offtake. The company reported a 105bp
expansion in gross margins to 52.0% (51.1%). Further, employee and other expenses grew
by 3.7% to `39cr (`38cr) and 12.9% to `61cr (`54cr), respectively. As a result, OPM
remained flat at 15.4% (15.3%). The company recorded other income of `13cr (`10cr),
primarily on the back of higher dividends. Net profit came in at `47cr (`44cr), up 8.0%
yoy, driven by other income and lower tax charges. The stock is under review.

5. October 26, 2010 5
Market Outlook | India Research
Lakshmi Machine Works
Lakshmi Machine Works declared a strong set of numbers in its 2QFY2011 results. Total
revenue for the quarter grew by 59.2% yoy to `443cr, which was in line with our estimate
of `450cr. However, OPM came in at 14.9%, below our estimates of 16.0%. Higher-than-
expected other income boosted the bottom line. Consequently, PAT came in 3% lower than
our estimates of `45.9cr. Currently, the stock is under review. We will update our
recommendation after the management call.
Madras Cements
Madras Cements posted a 20.4% yoy top-line decline to `650cr, which was below our
estimates of `692cr. The lackluster performance was primarily on account of a 22.7% yoy
decline in the cement segment’s revenue to `576cr. The cement segment, which derives
bulk of its revenue from the southern region, suffered due to low offtake and poor
realisation in the region. While the company’s cement despatches were down by 5.9% yoy
to 1.95mn tonnes, realisation fell by a steep 16.8% yoy to `2,952/tonne. On the
operating front, the company’s OPM plunged by a huge 2,390bp yoy to 17.7%, primarily
due to fall in cement realisations and a 12.4% yoy increase in power and fuel costs to
`172cr. The company’s bottom line fell by 81.6% yoy to `31cr, in line with our estimates.
We maintain Buy on the stock with a Target Price of `139.
Amara Raja Batteries
For 2QFY2011, Amara Raja Batteries (ARBL) reported 8.7% yoy growth in net sales to
`393cr (`361cr), which was below our expectation. Net sales growth was aided by healthy
double-digit volume growth from the auto battery segment. In the industrial battery
segment, while the UPS segment recorded significant growth, demand for telecom
batteries remained subdued, impacting overall volume and realisation growth of the
company. On the operating front, ARBL witnessed a 909bp yoy decline in EBITDA margins,
owing to substantial 777bp yoy rise in raw-material costs, which accounted for around
63.7% of sales (55.9% in 2QFY2010). Raw-material costs were impacted, to a certain
extent, by the increase in average lead prices, which were up 6.1% yoy to US
$2039/tonne. Margins were also down due to lower realisation from the telecom battery
segment. As a result, net profit declined 33.8% yoy to `31.6cr (`47.7cr). However, lower
interest cost and higher other income restricted the fall in the bottom line to certain extent.
On the valuation front, ARBL is trading at 11.9x and 8.9x FY2011E and FY2012E EPS,
respectively. We maintain Buy on ARBL with a Target Price of `251. At our target price, the
stock will trade at 11.3x (35% discount to Exide's multiple of 17.3x) FY2012E EPS of `22.2.

6. October 26, 2010 6
Market Outlook | India Research
Result Previews – 2QFY2011
NTPC
NTPC is expected to announce its 2QFY2011 results. We expect the company’s top line to
grow by 19.0% yoy to `13,395cr for the quarter, aided by volume growth due to
commencement of new capacities. However, operating profit is expected to decline by
12.8% yoy to `3,211cr due to higher fuel and staff costs, as the entire hike was not passed
on during the quarter. We estimate NTPC's net profit to dip by 14.2% yoy to `1,845cr.
We maintain an Accumulate rating on the stock with a Target Price of `230.
Sterlite
Sterlite is slated to announce its 2QFY2011 results. The company is expected to register a
3.7% yoy top-line decline to `5,863cr. EBITDA margin is expected to expand by 453bp to
26.3%. Hence, the bottom line is expected to grow by 11.1% yoy to `1,065cr. We maintain
Accumulate on the stock with a Target Price of `196.
JSW Steel
JSW Steel is slated to announce its 2QFY2011 results. On a standalone basis, the
company is expected to deliver 4.7% yoy growth in its top line to `5,005cr. EBITDA margin
is expected to come in at 20.5%, whereas net profit is expected to decline by 37.2% yoy to
`284cr. We maintain an Accumulate rating on the stock with a Target Price of `1,344.
Bosch – 3QCY2010
Bosch is slated to announce its 3QCY2010 results. The company is expected to deliver
~35% yoy growth in revenue to `1,739cr for the quarter. Bosch is expected to post a
223bp yoy decline in operating profit margin to 17.4%. Net profit is expected to increase
by 5.3% yoy to `205.1cr. The stock rating is under review.
Tech Mahindra
Tech Mahindra is set to announce its 2QFY2011 results. In dollar terms, we expect the
company’s revenue to be at US $268mn, with 6.8% qoq growth, on the back of strong
volume growth of 5% qoq and favourable cross-currency movement, aiding revenue by
1.8% qoq. EBITDA margin is expected to inch up marginally by 12bp qoq to 18.9% despite
wage inflation because of strong forex gains. PAT is expected to be at `175cr, with 21%
qoq, on the back of strong growth, better profitability and gains in money hedges. The
stock is currently under review. At the current CMP of `764.7, the stock is trading at 14.4x
FY2012 EPS of `53.2, we remain positive on this stock with a Buy rating and an SOTP
Target Price of `942.
United Phosphorus
United Phosphorus (UPL) is set to announce its 2QFY2011 results. We expect the company
to post 20% yoy top-line growth to `1,388cr, driven by strong growth in domestic market
on account of normal rain fall. However, operating profit is expected to grow by 42% yoy
due to expansion in OPM on the back of stable commodity prices. We expect UPL to post
OPM of 20% against 17% in 2QFY2010. The company’s bottom line is expected to
increase by 31% yoy to `134cr. Due to the recent run up in the stock, we recommend
Accumulate on the stock with a Target Price of `228.

7. October 26, 2010 7
Market Outlook | India Research
Marico
Marico is expected to announce its 2QFY2011 results. For the quarter, we expect Marico to
report 16.3% yoy growth in its consolidated top line to `805cr, driven by steady growth in
its core brands, Parachute and Saffola. Marico’s earnings for the quarter are expected to
grow by 17.4% yoy to `73.2cr, largely driven by top-line growth. We maintain Accumulate
on the stock with a Target Price of `135.
Dena Bank
Dena Bank is slated to declare its 2QFY2011 results. The bank is expected to post robust
net interest income (NII) growth of 56.7% yoy to `377cr. Operating income growth is
expected to be lower at 27.6% on account of lower treasury gains. Net profit growth is also
expected to be moderate at 10.3% yoy to `138cr on account of lower base of provisioning
expenses. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 1.1x FY2012E ABV of `115.1, which is below
our target multiple for the stock of 1.2x FY2012E ABV. Hence, we maintain an Accumulate
rating on the stock with a Target Price of `138.
Jyoti Structures
Jyoti Structures is scheduled to announce its 2QFY2011 results. The top line is expected to
grow by 20% yoy to `568cr. On the operating front, we expect margins to expand by 10bp
yoy to around 11.5%. Net profit is expected to increase by 29.8% yoy to `27cr. The stock is
currently trading at 10.0x FY2011E and 8.2x FY2012E earnings. We will revisit our
estimates post the conference call.
Economic and Political News
September exports up 23.2% to US $18.02 bn; at 2-yr high
September refinery output down 10.2% yoy: Government
SC defers Vodafone hearing to November 15
Corporate News
SC dismisses L&T appeal on NTPC tender
Trial in Satyam scam to begin from November 2
Elecon decides to acquire UK's Benzler Radicon Group
Adani Power seeks merger of APML shareholding entity
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

8. October 26, 2010 8
Market Outlook | India Research
Events for the day
Accel Front Results
Birla Corp Results
Blue Dart Results
Bosch Results
BSL Results
Central Bank Results
DCM Shriram Cons Results
Deepak Fert Results
Dena Bank Results
Dish TV India Results
Gujarat Alkalies Results
HCL Infosystems Results
Hercules Hoist Results
Hinduja Vent. Results
Hindustan Media Results
IBN18 Broad Results
IKF Tech Results
Infomedia 18 Results
ITD Cem India Results
JB Chemicals Results
Jindal Steel Results
JSW Steel Results
Jyoti Structure Results
Mangalore Refinery Results
Marico Results
NOCIL Results
NTPC Results
Patni Computer Results
Prism Info Results
Raymond Results
SRF Results
Sterlite Inds Results
Swaraj Engines Results
Tamilnadu Petro Results
TCI Finance Results
Tech Mahindra Results
TIL Results
TRF Results
TV Eighteen Results
Ultratech Cem Results
United Phosphorous Results
Voltas Results

9. October 26, 2010 9
Market Outlook | India Research
Research Team Tel: 022-4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
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