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Irb infrastructure developers ltd q3 fy12 result update

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Irb infrastructure developers ltd q3 fy12 result update

  1. 1.   Bloom Ke IRB Q3FY Key Secto CMP 52wk Marke 6m Av BSE S Reco Targe Stoc Bloom Reute BSE C NSE C Face V Share 2011) Price 1 Mth 26.7% Stoc Denil (denil@ (+912 Pro 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% mberg KNTE < eynote Capita Infrastru Y12 Result U Stock Data r High/Low et Cap vg. daily vol Sensex et Price ck Codes mberg Codes: rs code: Code: Code: Value: eholding patt e Performanc 3 Mths % -2.7% ck Price Perfo l Savla, Ana @keynoteind 2-30266073) 17.4% 6.5% 8.6% omoters FIIs % % % % % % % % Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 M11 IRB <GO>, Thoms als Institutio ucture De Update Infra (Pow `174.70 `229.9/12 `58.07bn ($1161.4m 351226 17193.5 ‘Buy’ `215.3 IRB.IN IRBI.BO 532947 IRB `10 tern (31st Dec ce ( 6 Mths 12 -5.7% -18 ormance alyst ia.net) 67.6% DIIs Other P May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 SENSEX Keynote Ca son One Ana nal Research eveloper L wer) 21.0 mn) c (%) Mths 8.45% IRB BOT expe Reve 23.0% `132 will c shee mont Key S w m J li C a fr C o ` T e s T g 2 Outl NHA its ta we e valua `215 FY12 Public Jan-12   apitals Instituti lytics, Reuter h –awarded Ltd. Infrastructur players in ectation. enues grew a % to `375.44 .04Cr from ` continue to co t and awaits ths. y Performan Strong constr which has be months. Bette Jaipur-Tonk-D ine. Consolidated account of be rom toll segm   Consolidated o-y) due to hi `217.39Cr. The newly ba end of Febru schedule. The company guidance of 2 28.1% to `312 look & Val I has awarded rgets of 7300 expect there ation, we main .3 per share. 2E & FY13E e   ional Researc rs Knowledge “India’s Bes re Develope the countr t 11.5% y-o-y 4Cr from `305 135.97Cr on oncentrate on s the consolid nce Highlig ruction order een discarde er than expec Deoli (`185Cr EBIDTA Mar etter executio ment. PAT de-grew gher interest gged Vadoda ary 2012 an y has already 20% y-o-y gr 23.5Cr. uation d 3685kms o 0kms (20kms will be imm ntain positive At CMP, sto earnings resp ch is also ava e, Capital IQ, T t IPO Analys rs Ltd, one ry has post y to `745.48C 5.28Cr. Howe account of r n road project dation phase ghts backlog of ` ed improves ted execution r) and Amritsa rgins rose by on managem w marginally b cost which ro ara-Ahmedab nd constructio achieved 78% rowth. Howev f projects as a day). Since mense oppor outlook with ock is trading pectively. K E INSTIT ailable on TheMarkets.c st 2009” by M of the large ted Q3FY12 Cr from `668. ever PAT de- ise in interes ts. It plans to e, which we `9100Cr excl the future v n in projects T ar-Pathankot 332bps to 48 ent further a by 2.9% to `1 ose by 84.25 bad project w on will start % of its guida ver, we expe on 30 Novem e IRB is prom rtunity for th ‘buy’ arriving at a PE mult E Y N TUTIONAL com and secu MCX-Zee Bus Jan est and mos results in 81Cr wherea -grew margin st cost and de o maintain a h expect over luding the Go visibility for t Talegaon-Am (`99.3Cr) im 8.18% from 4 added by hig 131.39Cr from 5% (y-o-y) to ill be financia in Q1FY13 o ance and mai ect higher top mber 2011 and minent player i e company. revised targe tiple of 13.91 N O T L RESEARC urities.com siness nuary 31, 20 st experienc line with o as EBIDTA gr nally by 2.9% epreciation. I healthy balan the next 18- oa-Panji proj the next 24- mravati (`176C mproved the to 44.86% y-o-y her contribut m `133.01Cr `400.54Cr fro ally close by t onwards as p ntain the ear p-line growth d continues w n BOT projec Based on o et price of x and 11.87x E CH 012 ced our rew % to RB nce -24 ect -30 Cr), op- on ion (y- om the per lier of with cts, our x of
  2. 2. IRB Infrastructure Developer Ltd. – Q4FY11 Result Update Page 2 Keynote Capitals Institutional Research Our Analysis Improvement in execution of E&C business As the company currently has four new projects on which construction has already started, major revenues are likely to be booked from these projects. The company expects 15-20% growth in the E&C business in FY12 whereas major growth would be in FY13 & FY14 as construction of the newly bagged project Ahmedabad- Vadodara Expressway worth `3600Cr would start only in FY13. Rise in EBIDTA margins beats the overall quarterly performance EBIDTA margins improved 193bps y-o-y, primarily due to decrease in raw material prices. EBIDTA grew 16.4% y-o-y and 6.3% q-o-q basis to `341.69Cr in Q3FY12. Daily gross toll collection of `3.5Cr Gross toll collection grew by 29.6% y-o-y and reaches up to Rs322Cr in Q3FY12, primarily inclusion of tumkut chitradurga and toll hike in Mumbai-Pune (23.0%) and Surat-Dahisar (11.3%) during the start of the current fiscal year. Project wise toll revenue growth (` Cr) Projects Q3FY11 Q2FY12 Q2FY12 Y-o-Y Q-o-Q TBB – 4 Mumbra 13.80 14.45 15.91 15.3% 10.1% Kharpada 1.92 1.90 2.04 6.3% 7.7% Nagar Karmala Tembhurni 3.59 3.53 3.50 -2.5% -0.9% Mohol Mandrup Kamptee 1.89 1.89 1.85 -2.1% -2.0% Pune Solapur 3.53 3.91 4.24 20.1% 8.4% Pune Nashik 5.55 5.53 5.77 4.0% 4.4% Mumbai Pune 80.87 99.68 99.96 23.6% 0.3% Thane Ghodbandur 7.28 6.91 7.54 3.6% 9.1% Surat Dahisar 95.46 93.90 106.29 11.3% 13.2% Bharuch Surat 34.78 34.68 37.24 7.1% 7.4% Tumkur Chitradurga - 38.70 38.00 - -1.8% Gross Toll Revenues 248.7 305.1 322.3 29.6% 5.7% (Source: Company and Keynote Capitals Institutional Research) Equity infused till date is `481Cr The company has infused total equity of `481Cr in their 4 under construction projects out of `1366Cr. It will also infuse around full equity in two of their projects so that they could avail the government grant that will help them to execute projects in faster manner. As on date, all the projects are expect to complete on schedule. All equity requirements would be fund through internal accruals only. The company has already infused 35% of the equity where as only 10-15% of work is complete on these projects as time taken for the earth evacuation is longer. Vadodara-Ahmedabad 1st Mega highways project bagged by IRB The company has bagged Vadodara Ahmedabad mega highway project worth `3678Cr with the concession of 25 year including 3 years of construction at a premium of `309.6Cr in 1st year and thereafter 5% increase every year. We have not included this project in our valuation due to lack of clarity. However we may add it in FY13 as the construction work would only start in FY13.
  3. 3. K E Y N O T E INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH Keynote Capitals Institutional Research Page 3 Toll collection from Tumkur started and Kolhapur City project is expected in Q3 FY12 Toll collection started from Tumkur-Chitradurg project from June 2011 as expected and the toll collection for the Q2FY12 was `38.7Cr. Due to some procedural delay Kolhapur City Roads would start somewhere in Q3FY12. The company expects first full year operational revenue in the range `35-40Cr. Quarterly Results P&L (` Cr) Source: Company and Keynote Capitals Institutional Research Consolidated P&L (` Cr) Particulars FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Net Sales 991.90 1704.80 2438.11 3123.51 3606.06 Total Expenditure 553.00 905.80 1344.20 1866.88 2177.60 PBIDT (Excl OI) 438.90 799.00 1093.91 1256.63 1428.46 Other Income 28.20 48.90 64.49 80.00 75.00 Operating Profit 467.10 847.90 1158.40 1336.63 1503.46 Interest 137.70 249.40 357.20 441.49 481.11 PBDT 329.40 598.50 801.20 895.14 1022.36 Depreciation 114.40 181.90 225.40 346.62 380.92 PBT 215.00 416.60 575.80 548.52 641.44 Tax 37.80 13.30 111.70 131.19 152.09 Profit After Tax 177.20 403.30 464.10 417.33 489.35 % of Sales 17.9% 23.7% 19.0% 13.4% 13.6% Growth (%) 40.1% 127.6% 15.1% -10.1% 17.3% (E: Keynote Capitals Institutional Research Estimates) Particulars Q3FY11 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Y-o-Y Q-o-Q 9M FY11 9M FY12 Y-o-Y Net Sales 668.81 735.88 745.48 11.5% 1.3% 1671.14 2282.69 36.6% Total Expenditure 375.24 414.40 403.79 7.6% -2.6% 891.91 1290.07 44.6% PBIDT (Excl OI) 293.57 321.48 341.69 16.4% 6.3% 779.23 992.62 27.4% Other Income 11.71 30.07 33.75 188.2% 12.2% 41.60 92.04 121.3% Operating Profit 305.28 351.55 375.44 23.0% 6.8% 820.83 1084.66 32.1% Interest 81.97 141.15 141.96 73.2% 0.6% 217.39 400.54 84.2% PBDT 223.31 210.40 233.48 4.6% 11.0% 603.44 684.12 13.4% Depreciation 58.54 62.85 72.37 23.6% 15.1% 166.64 195.45 17.3% PBT 164.77 147.55 161.11 -2.2% 9.2% 436.80 488.67 11.9% Tax 28.80 36.69 29.07 0.9% -20.8% 78.17 110.02 40.7% Profit After Tax 135.97 110.86 132.04 -2.9% 19.1% 358.63 378.65 5.6%
  4. 4. IRB Infrastructure Developer Ltd. – Q4FY11 Result Update Page 4 Keynote Capitals Institutional Research Consolidated Balance sheet (` Cr) Particulars FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Share Capital 332.4 332.4 332.4 332.4 333.4 Total Reserves 1397.7 1707.5 2163.1 2569.2 3046.9 Shareholder's Funds 1730.1 2039.9 2495.5 2901.6 3380.3 Minority Interest 59.9 77.9 95.0 110.0 118.0 Deferred Liabilities 18.2 26.7 30.0 26.4 27.2 Total Debts 2485.9 2915.2 3379.9 4417.6 5026.4 Total Liabilities 4294.1 5059.7 6000.4 7455.5 8551.9 Net Block 2016.2 3467.4 4052.0 4711.8 5315.4 Capital Work in Progress 1454.5 880.2 897.6 1185.8 840.9 Total Fixed Assets 3470.7 4347.6 4949.6 5897.6 6156.3 Investments 110.8 45.1 50.0 80.0 81.0 Total Current Assets 1018.1 1147.7 1630.5 2184.0 3028.3 Total Current Liabilities 306.5 481.6 630.5 707.5 716.0 Net Current Assets 711.6 666.1 1000.0 1476.5 2312.2 Total Assets 4294.1 5059.7 6000.4 7455.5 8551.9 (E: Keynote Capitals Institutional Research Estimates) Consolidated Cash Flow (` Cr) Particulars FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Profit Before Tax 215.00 416.60 575.80 548.52 641.44 Add: Depreciation 114.40 181.90 225.40 346.62 380.92 Add: Interest Expenses 115.90 214.40 357.20 441.49 481.11 Changes In working Capital -140.10 185.00 51.11 -219.24 -508.65 Cash Flow after changes in WC 304.00 984.52 1209.51 1117.38 995.82 Less: Tax Paid 42.40 81.20 111.70 131.19 152.09 Cash from Operating Activities 261.60 903.32 1097.81 986.19 843.73 Cash from Investing Activities -604.70 -1022.30 -642.31 -1387.34 -563.26 Cash from Financing Activities 330.90 142.60 153.18 622.48 46.65 Net Cash Inflow / Outflow -12.20 23.62 608.67 221.33 327.12 Opening Cash balance 111.02 98.82 122.44 731.11 952.45 Closing Cash balance 98.82 122.44 731.11 952.45 1279.57 (E: Keynote Capitals Institutional Research Estimates)
  5. 5. K E Y N O T E INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH Keynote Capitals Institutional Research Page 5 Ratios Turnover Ratios FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Total Assets Turnover 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 Fixed Assets Turnover 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 Net sales to net working capital 1.4 2.6 2.4 2.1 1.6 Net Working Capital Days 261.9 142.6 155.1 172.5 234.0 Inventory Turnover 4.8 10.0 12.0 12.0 10.0 Inventory Days 75.6 36.4 30.4 30.4 36.5 Advances Turnover 2.6 3.9 3.7 3.5 2.8 Advances Days 141.6 93.8 100.0 105.0 130.0 Debtors Turnover 76.3 57.4 38.0 42.9 34.8 Debtors Days 4.8 6.4 9.6 8.5 10.5 Creditors Turnover 4.2 5.7 5.5 6.6 8.1 Creditors Days 86.0 63.9 66.0 55.0 45.0 Valuation Ratios FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Market Price (`) 174.7 174.7 174.7 174.7 174.7 EPS (`) 5.3 12.1 14.0 12.6 14.3 Book Value Per Share (`) 52.0 61.4 75.1 87.3 101.4 PE ( x) 32.8 14.4 12.5 13.9 12.2 P/BV (x) 3.4 2.8 2.3 2.0 1.7 EV/EBIDTA (x) 15.9 8.8 6.4 5.6 4.9 Market cap/Sales (x) 5.1 2.9 2.1 1.6 1.4 Return Ratios (%) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E ROCE 8.2% 13.2% 15.8% 13.3% 13.1% ROE 10.2% 19.8% 18.6% 14.4% 14.5% Margins (%) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E PBIDTA 47.1% 49.7% 47.5% 42.8% 41.7% PBT 21.7% 24.4% 23.6% 17.6% 17.8% PAT 17.9% 23.7% 19.0% 13.4% 13.6% Other Ratios FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Payout Ratio (%) 28.1% 12.4% 10.7% 15.9% 14.0% Interest Cover (x) 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.2 2.3 EPS Growth (%) 40.1% 127.6% 15.1% -10.1% 13.8% (E: Keynote Capitals Institutional Research Estimates)
  6. 6. IRB Infrastructure Developer Ltd. – Q4FY11 Result Update Page 6 Keynote Capitals Institutional Research KEYNOTE CAPITALS LTD. Member Stock Exchange, Mumbai (INB 010930556) National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (INB 230930539) Over the Counter Exchange of India Ltd. (INB 200930535) Central Depository Services Ltd. (IN-DP-CDSL-152-2001) 4th Floor, Balmer Lawrie Building, 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Mumbai 400 001. INDIA Tel:- 9122-2269 4322 / 24 / 25 • www.keynotecapitals.com DISCLAIMER • This report has been prepared and issued by Keynote Capitals Limited, based solely on public information and sources believed to be reliable. • Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein, constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or any options, futures or other derivatives related to such securities and also for the purpose of trading activities. • Keynote Capitals Limited makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied and accepts no responsibility or liability as to the accuracy or completeness or correctness of the information in this report. • Keynote Capitals and its affiliates and their respective officers, directors and employees may hold positions in any securities mentioned in this Report (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any securities or investments. • Keynote Capitals may also have proprietary trading positions in securities covered in this report or in related instruments. • An affiliate of Keynote Capitals Limited may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking services for the company under coverage. • If ‘Buy’, ‘Sell’, or ‘Hold’ recommendation is made in this Report, such recommendation or view or opinion expressed on investments in this Report is not intended to constitute investment advice and should not be intended or treated as a substitute for necessary review or validation or any professional advice. The views expressed in this Report are those of the analyst which are subject to change and do not represent to be an authority on the subject. Keynote Capitals may or may not subscribe to any and/ or all the views expressed herein. • The opinions presented herein are liable to change without any notice. • Though due care has been taken in the preparation of this report, Keynote Capitals limited or any of its directors, officers or employees shall be in any way be responsible for any loss arising from the use thereof. • Investors are advised to apply their judgment before acting on the contents of this report. • This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of Keynote Capitals Limited. Institutional Equity Team Rakesh Chaudhary (CEO ) rakesh@keynotecapitals.net +91 22 30266034 Analysts / Associates Denil Savla denil@keynoteindia.net +91 22 3026 6073 Deepak Kolhe deepak@keynotecapitals.net +9122 3026 6084 Rohan Admane rohan@keynoteindia.net +91 22 2269 6059 Rajesh Sinha rajesh@keynotecapitals.net +91 22 30266088 Mamta Singh mamta.singh@keynotecapitals.net +91 22 3026 6057 Technical Analyst Sanjay Bhatia sanjay@keynotecapitals.net +91 22 3026 6065 Dealing / Sales Nilesh Dhruv nilesh@keynoteindia.net +91 22 3026 6040 Nisha Sharma nisha@keynoteindia.net +91 22 3026 6057

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