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Axis Bank
1. 1QFY2011 Result Update | Banking
July 15. 2010
Axis Bank ACCUMULATE
CMP Rs1,345
Performance Highlights Target Price Rs1,477
Y/E March (Rs cr) 1QFY11 4QFY10 % chg (qoq) 1QFY10 % chg (yoy) Investment Period 12 Months
Net Interest Income 1,514 1,460 3.7 1,046 44.8
Pre-Prov Profit 1,450 1,384 4.8 1,176 23.3 Stock Info
PAT 742 765 (3.0) 562 32.0 Sector Banking
Source: Company, Angel Research Market Cap (Rs cr) 54,799
Beta 1.1
Axis Bank has announced its 1QFY2011 results wherein it has registered net 52 Week High / Low 1349/762
profit growth of 32.0% on a yoy basis to Rs742cr, which is better than our
estimate of Rs710cr mainly on account of the better-than-estimated net Avg. Daily Volume
361,670
interest income (NII). Strong operating performance with stable asset quality Face Value (Rs) 10
was the key positive of the result. We have an Accumulate rating on the stock.
BSE Sensex 17,909
Strong operating performance continues: Advances increased by a robust Nifty 5,379
39.1% yoy and 4.1% sequentially, while deposits grew 33.8% yoy and 4.4%, Reuters Code AXBK.BO
sequentially. The advances growth was driven by the large and mid-corporate Bloomberg Code AXSB@IN
segment (mainly telecom), which increased by 54.7% yoy. Consequently, net
interest income (NII) recorded 44.8% yoy and 3.7% sequential growth. The
daily average balances of savings deposits grew 39.3% yoy and those of the
Shareholding Pattern (%)
current account deposits by 37.3% yoy. Reported NIM at 3.71%, registered a
decline of 38bp sequentially largely on account of the payment of interest on Promoters 37.7
savings deposits on daily balance from 1QFY2011 onwards. The gross MF / Banks / Indian Fls 6.5
slippage during the quarter stood at Rs421cr, indicating an annualised FII / NRIs / OCBs 36.4
slippage ratio of 1.6% lower than FY2010, which was at 2.2%. Gross and net
Indian Public / Others 19.4
NPA ratios of the bank were stable at 1.1% and 0.4%, respectively.
Outlook and Valuation: At the CMP, the stock is trading at relatively attractive
valuations of 2.5x FY2012E ABV, an almost 24% discount to HDFC Bank Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
despite similar earnings quality, profitability and growth expectations over Sensex 1.5 25.7 17.0
FY2010-12E. We remain positive on the bank and believe that it deserves
AXSB 17.0 70.5 108.3
premium valuations on account of its attractive CASA franchise, multiple
sources of sustainable fee income, strong growth outlook and A-list
management. We have an Accumulate rating on the stock, with a Target Price
of Rs1,477, implying an upside of 10%.
Key Financials
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
NII 3,686 5,004 6,314 7,950
Vaibhav Agrawal
% chg 42.6 35.8 26.2 25.9
022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 333
Net Profit 1,815 2,515 3,042 4,078
vaibhav.agrawal@angeltrade.com
% chg 69.5 38.5 21.0 34.1
NIM (%) 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 Amit Rane
EPS (Rs) 50.6 62.1 75.1 100.7 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 326
P/E (x) 26.6 21.7 17.9 13.4 amitn.rane@angeltrade.com
P/ABV (x) 4.8 3.4 3.0 2.5
Shrinivas Bhutda
RoA (%) 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6
022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 316
RoE (%) 19.1 19.2 17.7 20.5
shrinivas.bhutda@angeltrade.com
Source: Company, Angel Research
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
2. Axis Bank | 1QFY2011 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 1QFY2011 Performance
Particulars (Rs cr) 1QFY2011 4QFY2010 % chg (qoq) 1QFY2010 % chg (yoy)
Interest Earned 3,326 2,988 11.3 2,906 14.5
Interest Expenses 1,812 1,528 18.5 1,860 (2.6)
Net Interest Income 1,514 1,460 3.7 1,046 44.8
Non-Interest Income 1,001 934 7.2 959 4.4
Total Income 2,515 2,394 5.1 2,004 25.5
Operating Expenses 1,065 1,010 5.4 828 28.6
Pre-Prov Profit 1,450 1,384 4.8 1,176 23.3
Provisions & Cont. 333 202 65.0 315 5.6
PBT 1,117 1,182 (5.5) 861 29.7
Prov. for Taxes 375 417 (10.0) 299 25.5
PAT 742 765 (3.0) 562 32.0
EPS (Rs) 18.2 18.9 (3.5) 15.6 16.6
Cost to Income (%) 42.3 42.2 41.3
Effective Tax Rate (%) 33.6 35.3 34.7
Net NPA (%) 0.4 0.4 0.4
Source: Company, Angel research
Stronger-than-expected advances growth
Advances increased by a robust 39.1% yoy and 4.1% sequentially to Rs1,08,609cr,
while deposits increased to Rs1,47,479cr, a growth of 33.8% yoy and 4.4%
sequentially. The advances growth was driven by the large and mid-corporate
segment (mainly telecom), which increased by 54.7% yoy. Consequently, the NII of
the bank recorded a growth of 44.8% yoy and 3.7% sequentially.
The deposit growth was driven by 17.2% qoq growth in Term deposits. The CASA
ratio of the bank declined to 40.2% (which is a seasonal phenomenon in the first
quarter of the financial year) from 46.7% in 4QFY2010, though it was stable on
yoy basis. On the positive side, the daily average balances of savings deposits
grew 39.3% yoy, while those of the current account deposits grew by 37.3% yoy.
Reported NIM at 3.71%, registered a decline of 38bp sequentially largely on
account of the payment of interest on savings deposits on daily balance from
1QFY2011 onwards.
July 15, 2010 2
4. Axis Bank | 1QFY2011 Result Update
Exhibit 4: Advances break-up (1QFY2011)
Agri
10%
SME
16%
Medium and
large Retail
corporates 19%
55%
Source: Company, Angel Research
Reasonable non-interest income growth
Fee income registered 19% yoy growth, rising to Rs743cr (Rs627cr) during
Q1FY2011, with strong contribution from the corporate segment. Fee income from
large and mid-corporate credit (including infrastructure) grew 42% yoy, followed
by that from treasury and debt and capital markets (22% yoy), capital markets
(10% yoy), retail business (8% yoy), business banking (6% yoy) and fee income
from the SME and agri lending businesses declined by 6%.
The bank generated Rs196cr (Rs326cr) of trading profits during Q1FY2011, a
decline of 40% yoy. About 60% of the total trading profit was related to trading of
corporate bonds.
Exhibit 5: Fee income mix
Rs Cr
Corporate Treasury Agri & SME Business banking Capital markets Retail
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
-
1QFY09
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
Source: Company, Angel Research
Asset quality stable
The gross slippage during the quarter stood at Rs421cr, indicating an annualised
slippage ratio of 1.6% lower than FY2010, which was at 2.2%. Gross NPAs
increased by 1.7% sequentially to Rs1,341cr, while net NPAs stood at Rs413cr
(Rs419cr). The NPA provisions were higher sequentially at Rs304cr in 1QFY2011
v/s 180cr in 4QFY2010. The bank has very healthy provision coverage ratio of
July 15, 2010 4
5. Axis Bank | 1QFY2011 Result Update
89.6% including technical write-offs. Gross and net NPA ratios of the bank were
stable at 1.1% and 0.4%, respectively.
The bank restructured loans aggregating Rs30cr during Q1FY2011. The
cumulative restructured assets till 1QFY2011, however declined to Rs 2,151cr
(1.81% of gross customer assets). The bank restructured ~69% in the large and
mid corporate credit, and 20% in the SME segment, while the balance was
restructured in agriculture and capital markets. A sector-wise analysis by the bank
indicates that restructuring of textiles was the highest at 22%, followed by shipping
22%, sugar, petroleum and real estate at 8% each.
Asset quality pressures have shown signs of easing, with an improving economic
outlook and reducing corporate leverage owing to which the NPA provisions are
expected to decline, going forward. Accordingly, we estimate a decline in NPA
provisions by 21.1% in FY2011E (implies NPA provision at 0.5% of assets in
FY2011E v/s an average of 0.3% over FY2005-09).
Exhibit 6: Asset quality trend
% Gross NPA % Net NPA % NPA Coverage (RHS) %
2.5 70.0
2.0
60.0
1.5
50.0
1.0
40.0
0.5
0.0 30.0
1QFY09 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11
Source: Company, Angel Research
Operating expenses rise
Operating expenses were up by 28.6% yoy, with a cost-to-income ratio of 42.3%
(42.2% in 4QFY2010 and 41.3% in 1QFY2010) on the back of the strong
operating performance of the bank. During 1QFY2011, the bank added another
15 branches (191 during FY2010) and 181 ATMs, taking the network size to
1,050 branches and 4,474 ATMs. Operating costs of the bank are expected to
increase above the industry average due to its aggressive branch expansion plans
- the bank plans to open about 200 branches in FY2011E.
July 15, 2010 5
6. Axis Bank | 1QFY2011 Result Update
Exhibit 7: Trend in productivity
% Cost-to-income ratio
55
51
47
Flat cost-to-income ratio on the back
of strong operating performance
43
39
35
1QFY09
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
Source: Company, Angel Research
Strong capital adequacy
The bank has a healthy CAR of 14.5%, with tier-I capital of 10.3% at the end of
1QFY2011. The bank has not included profit during the quarter in tier-I capital as
per the RBI guidelines. With the leverage (assets/net worth) at 11.2x, the bank is
adequately capitalised to grow its advances at 5% above industry growth over
FY2010-12E.
High AFS exposure in investment book
The bank’s AFS portfolio constituted 32.7% and its HFT portfolio 6.4% of its total
investment book. The non-SLR investment was 32.5% of the total investment book.
The modified duration of AFS and HTM stood at 2.8 years and 4.6 years,
respectively.
July 15, 2010 6
7. Axis Bank | 1QFY2011 Result Update
Investment Arguments
Equity capital increased to support faster market share gains
We believe the bank’s Rs3,800cr QIP strongly positions it for market share gains
as the GDP and capital market activity continue to revive, with at least 500bp
higher growth than industry over FY2010-12E. The bank has expanded its network
at 35% CAGR since FY2003, driving fourfold increase in CASA market share to
4.0% by FY2010 (20bp yoy increase in FY2010). In our view, such gains (30-50bp
every year) will continue going forward, especially as network expansion (200+
additions, about 20-25% yoy) remains strong.
Fee income continues to drive higher RoEs
Fee income contribution across a spectrum of services has been a meaningful
1.9% of assets (almost twice the level in PSBs) over FY2008-10. With the capital
markets reviving, appetite for equity-based savings instruments is increasing and
general loan growth picking up. Fee income growth is also expected to gain
traction (30% CAGR over FY2010-12E), taking the contribution to 2.0% of assets
by FY2012E.
NPA concerns receding
In our view, the bank’s high credit growth was backed by strong low-cost deposit
growth, rather than chasing risky loans using high-cost deposits. Moreover, with
the improving economic outlook and reducing corporate leverage, NPA concerns
are receding. We expect NPA provisions/Avg Assets to decline to 0.3% by FY2012E
from 0.8% in FY2010.
July 15, 2010 7
8. Axis Bank | 1QFY2011 Result Update
Outlook and Valuation
At the CMP, the stock is trading at relatively attractive valuations of 2.5x FY2012E
ABV, a 24% discount to HDFC Bank. We remain positive on the bank and believe
that it deserves premium valuations on account of its attractive CASA franchise,
multiple sources of sustainable fee income, strong growth outlook and A-list
management.
Our Target P/ABV multiple of 2.8x on FY2012E estimates, represents a 20%
discount to our Target P/ABV multiple of 3.5x for HDFC Bank, keeping in mind the
relatively higher credit and market risks, though we believe that as the bank
establishes a longer and more credible track record of pricing and managing risks,
this gap vis-à-vis HDFC Bank could narrow down. We have an Accumulate rating
on the stock, with a Target Price of Rs1,477, implying an upside of 10% from
current levels.
Exhibit 8: Key Assumptions
Particulars (%) Earlier Estimates Revised Estimates
FY2011E FY2012E FY2011E FY2012E
Credit growth 25.0 25.0 26.0 27.0
Deposit growth 28.0 26.0 28.0 26.0
CASA Ratio 46.4 46.2 46.4 46.2
NIMs 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2
Other Income growth 10.9 27.7 10.8 27.6
Growth in Staff Expenses 22.9 29.2 22.9 29.2
Growth in Other Expenses 22.9 29.2 22.9 29.2
Slippages 1.5 1.0 1.5 1.0
Coverage Ratio 69.4 70.4 69.4 70.4
Treasury gain/(loss) (% of investments) 0.25 0.20 0.25 0.20
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 9: Change in estimates
Particulars FY2011E FY2012E
Earlier Revised Earlier Revised
(Rs cr) Var (%) Var (%)
Estimates Estimates Estimates Estimates
Net Interest Income 6,154 6,314 2.6 7,739 7,950 2.7
Non-Interest Income 4,181 4,179 (0.0) 5,338 5,333 (0.1)
Total Income 10,335 10,494 1.5 13,076 13,283 1.6
Operating Expenses 4,561 4,561 - 5,891 5,891 -
Pre-Prov Profit 5,774 5,933 2.7 7,186 7,392 2.9
Provisions & Cont. 1,326 1,324 (0.2) 1,219 1,213 (0.5)
PBT 4,448 4,609 3.6 5,966 6,179 3.6
Prov. for Taxes 1,512 1,567 3.6 2,029 2,101 3.6
PAT 2,936 3,042 3.6 3,938 4,078 3.6
Source: Company, Angel Research
July 15, 2010 8
12. Axis Bank | 1QFY2011 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement (Company name) Axis Bank
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock Yes
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock Yes
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)
July 15, 2010 12
