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4QFY2010 Result Update I Banking
                                                                                                                          April 29, 2010




  Yes Bank                                                                                 NEUTRAL
                                                                                           CMP                                    Rs293
  Performance Highlights                                                                   Target Price                               -

 Yes Bank reported a strong Net Profit growth of 75% yoy for 4QFY2010, in                  Investment Period                          -
 line with our expectations. During the quarter, the Bank registered a sequential
 surge in Loans (18.6%) and Deposits (21.6%), which was reflected in the                   Stock Info
 sequential NII growth of 15.8%. The equity capital raised boosted the NIMs of             Sector                               Banking
 the bank during 4QFY2010. However, branch expansion (which is important
 for CASA accretion) remains behind schedule. We maintain a Neutral view on                Market Cap (Rs cr)                     9,973
 the stock.
                                                                                           Beta                                     1.1
 Strong Balance Sheet growth continues: The Bank registered a substantial                  52 WK High / Low                     288/73
 sequential surge in both Loans and Deposits, with Loans growing 18.6% qoq
 (78.9% yoy) to Rs22,193cr, and Deposits growing 21.6% qoq (65.7% yoy) to                  Avg. Daily Volume                    696800
 Rs26,799cr. The bank raised Rs1,034cr of equity capital in January 2010,                  Face Value (Rs)                          10
 which aided the bank in reducing its cost of funds. As a result, the reported
 NIMs of the bank improved by 10bp sequentially to 3.2% in 4QFY2010. The                   BSE Sensex                            17,503
 Non-interest income increased by 78.4% yoy to reach Rs160.1cr in 4QFY2010                 Nifty                                  5,254
 (25.3% qoq), driven by financial market income and income from transaction
 banking. The Gross NPA ratio was at 0.3%, while the Net NPA ratio was at                  Reuters Code                         YESB.BO
 0.1%, as at 4QFY2010 (as against 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively, as at
                                                                                           Bloomberg Code                       YES@IN
 4QFY2009). The Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) of the bank has improved to
 20.6%, with Tier-I capital of 12.9%, which increased from 9.0% in 3QFY2010,               Shareholding Pattern (%)
 on the back of Rs1,034cr of equity capital raised in January 2010.
                                                                                           Promoters                               27.2
 Outlook and Valuation: At the CMP, the stock is trading at expensive                      MF/Banks/Indian FIs                      6.4
 valuations of 15.7x FY2012E EPS of Rs18.7 and 2.2x FY2012E ABV of
 Rs131.6. We believe that this leaves little margin of safety, in light of structural      FII/NRIs/OCBs                           58.1
 downside in RoAs. Moreover, as the interest rate rises, the cost of funds for the
                                                                                           Indian Public                            8.4
 bank is expected to rise at a faster rate, due to the wholesale-based funding
 mix of the bank. Further, as the experience of the past several quarters has              Abs. (%)          3m          1yr        3yr
 shown, in spite of the management’s high pedigree, the inherent challenges of
                                                                                           Sensex            7.0        53.5        25.8
 building a retail franchise are substantial. In our view, there is a relatively high
 execution risk involved in the kind of growth that the current valuations imply,          Yes Bank          62.5       279.5       93.2
 especially with respect to the Bank’s Retail business. We remain Neutral on the
 stock.




 Key Financials
 Y/E March (Rs cr)             FY2009         FY2010E         FY2011E     FY2012E
 NII                               511             779            1,000     1,183
 % chg                            54.6            52.3             28.4      18.3
 Net Profit                        304             492             558       631
 % chg                            51.9            61.8             13.4      13.2
 NIM (%)                           2.7              2.8             2.5       2.4
                                                                                        Vaibhav Agrawal
 EPS (Rs)                         10.2            14.6             16.5      18.7
                                                                                        Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 333
 P/E (x)                          28.6            20.1             17.7      15.7
                                                                                        E-mail: vaibhav.agrawal@angeltrade.com
 P/ABV (x)                         5.4              3.0             2.6       2.2
                                                                                        Amit Rane
 RoA (%)                           1.5              1.7             1.3       1.2
                                                                                        Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 326
 RoE (%)                          20.6            20.2             15.8      15.3
                                                                                        E-mail: amitn.rane@angeltrade.com
Source: Company, Angel Research



                                                                                                                                          1
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report                            Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
Yes Bank I 4QFY2010 Result Update


 Exhibit 1: 4QFY2010 Performance
 Y/E March (Rs cr)                4QFY10    3QFY10       % chg (qoq)      4QFY09       % chg (yoy)       FY10            FY09   % chg
 Interest Earned                     665        626               6.1        566             17.4       2,361           2,003    17.8
 Interest Expenses                   420        415               1.2        411               2.3      1,582           1,492     6.0
 Net Interest Income                 244        211             15.8         155             57.3         779             511    52.3
 Non-Interest Income                 160      127.8             25.3          90             78.4         585             469    24.7
 Total Income                        404        339             19.4         245             65.0       1,363             980    39.1
 Operating Expenses                  147        123             19.7          91             61.2         500             419    19.5
 Pre-Prov. Profit                    258        216             19.2         154             67.3         863             562    53.7
 Provisions & Cont.                   43      25.38             67.7          32             32.2         137              96    43.1
 PBT                                 215        191             12.7         122             76.6         726             466    55.9
 Prov. for Taxes                      75         65             15.6          42             80.1         249             162    53.5
 PAT                                 140        126             11.2          80             74.8         478             304    57.2
 EPS (Rs)                             4.1        4.2            (2.2)         2.7            53.7        14.1            10.2    38.3
 Cost to Income (%)                  36.3       36.2                           37.2                      36.7            42.7
 Effective Tax Rate (%)              34.9       34.0                           34.2                      34.2            34.8
 Net NPA (%)                          0.1        0.1                            0.3                       0.1             0.3
Source: Company, Angel Research


                                            Strong Business Growth Continues

                                            The bank registered a substantial sequential surge in both loans and deposits, with
                                            loans growing 18.6% qoq (78.9% yoy) to Rs22,193cr and deposits growing 21.6%
                                            qoq (65.7% yoy) to Rs26,799cr. CASA deposits also recorded a similar surge, and
                                            the CASA ratio stood at 10.5% (10.1% in 3QFY2010). The growth on the asset-side
                                            was mainly driven by sectors such as infrastructure (Power, Oil, Gas), Engineering,
                                            Telecom, and also by the year-end advances to the priority sector.

                                            Exhibit 2: Advances Break-up as on 4QFY2010

                                                                              Branch Banking
                                                                                    5%


                                                                 Commercial
                                                                  Banking
                                                                   26%


                                                                                                         Corp & Insti
                                                                                                          Banking
                                                                                                            69%




                                            Source: Company, Angel Research


                                            Strong Net Interest Income growth

                                            The NII of the bank registered a growth of 57.3% yoy and 15.7% qoq to Rs244cr in
                                            4QFY2010. The reported NIMs of the bank improved by 10bp sequentially to 3.2%
                                            in 4QFY2010, on the back of the benefit of Rs1,034cr through a QIP in January
                                            2010. The cost of funds of the bank reduced from 6.6% in 3QFY2010 to 6.3% in
                                            4QFY2010.




April 29, 2010                                                                                                                      2
Yes Bank I 4QFY2010 Result Update


                 Exhibit 3: Trend in Quarterly Reported NIMs
                   %
                   4.0

                   3.5

                   3.0

                   2.5

                   2.0




                            4QFY2008



                                          1QFY2009



                                                       2QFY2009



                                                                   3QFY2009



                                                                              4QFY2009



                                                                                               1QFY2010



                                                                                                          2QFY2010



                                                                                                                       3QFY2010



                                                                                                                                   4QFY2010
                 Source: Company, Angel Research


                 Asset-quality healthy, in a cyclical context

                 The Gross NPA ratio was at 0.3%, while the Net NPA ratio was at 0.1%, as at
                 4QFY2010 (as against 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively, as at 4QFY2009). The bank’s
                 restructured advances declined by Rs54cr during the quarter, taking the total
                 restructured advances to Rs80cr at the end of 4QFY2010, and constituted 0.4% of
                 the Advances. In our opinion, the present level of gross NPAs is significantly lower
                 than the sectoral averages relative to the Bank’s high-yield credit portfolio.
                 Accordingly, from a structural point-of-view, we believe that asset-quality
                 deterioration remains a risk for the bank.

                 Strong Non-interest Income

                 Non-interest income increased by 78.4% yoy to reach Rs160.1cr in 4QFY2010
                 (25.3% qoq). The financial market income witnessed strong traction, and grew by
                 69.3% qoq and 42.8% yoy to Rs47cr. Income from transaction banking also
                 increased by a strong 16.4% qoq and 71.4% yoy to Rs43cr. The non-interest income
                 to average Assets stood at a healthy level of 2.0% in FY2010.

                 Exhibit 4: Trend in Non-Interest Income Mix

                   Rs cr
                    250

                    200

                    150

                    100

                     50

                      -
                                 4QFY08



                                              1QFY09



                                                          2QFY09



                                                                     3QFY09



                                                                               4QFY09



                                                                                                1QFY10



                                                                                                          2QFY10



                                                                                                                      3QFY10



                                                                                                                                  4QFY10




                           Financial markets            Financial advisory               Transaction banking         Retail, Others


                 Source: Company, Angel Research

                 Operating Expenses under control, but muted branch expansion

                 Operating expenses increased by 61.2% yoy and 19.7% qoq, to reach Rs147cr.
                 However, the operating income of the bank grew at a much faster rate of 65% yoy
                 which was reflected in an improvement in the cost-to-income ratio to 36.3% (37.2%
                 in 4QFY2009). During the quarter, the bank opened 18 branches, taking the total
                 network to 150. The bank plans to open 70 branches in FY2011E.
April 29, 2010                                                                                   3
Yes Bank I 4QFY2010 Result Update


                 We believe that building CASA deposits is a key challenge for the Bank, the lack of
                 which renders the bank at a cost disadvantage to larger banks, and is exacerbated
                 by regulatory reserve requirements. Branch expansion plans, a key driver for CASA
                 growth, have fallen behind schedule several times. Even otherwise, the
                 management’s CASA target of 25% by FY2012E (50% CAGR in CASA) appears
                 difficult to achieve.

                 Exhibit 5: Trend in Branch Expansion

                   Nos
                  170.0
                                                                                                    150
                  150.0
                                                                                           132
                                                                         123      126
                  130.0                                         117
                                                       109
                  110.0                       101

                   90.0              80
                            67
                   70.0
                   50.0
                            4QFY08



                                     1QFY09



                                              2QFY09



                                                       3QFY09



                                                                4QFY09



                                                                         1QFY10



                                                                                  2QFY10



                                                                                           3QFY10



                                                                                                    4QFY10
                 Source: Company, Angel Research


                 Strong Capital Adequacy

                 The Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) of the bank has improved to 20.6%, with Tier-I
                 capital of 12.9%, which increased from 9.0% in 3QFY2010, on the back of
                 Rs1,034cr of equity capital raised in January 2010. The bank also raised Rs82cr of
                 Hybrid Tier-I debt and Rs300cr of Subordinated Lower Tier-II debt during the
                 quarter.

                 Outlook and Valuation

                 The bank’s high NIMs are a function of a higher yield on advances, while, at the
                 same time, the provisioning costs have been lower than the sectoral average. Hence,
                 we believe that asset-quality deterioration remains a significant risk for the bank.
                 Moreover, as the interest rate rises, the cost of funds for the bank is expected to rise
                 at a faster rate, due to the wholesale-based funding mix of the bank.

                 Accordingly, we expect a lower Net Profit growth of 13.4% yoy in FY2011E and 13.2
                 yoy in FY2012E as compared to 61.8% growth in FY2010. Moreover, due to equity
                 dilution, the RoE of the bank is expected to decline to 15.3% in FY2012E from 20.2%
                 for FY2010.

                 At the CMP, the stock is trading at expensive valuations of 15.7x FY2012E EPS of
                 Rs18.7 and 2.2x FY2012E ABV of Rs131.6. We believe that this leaves little margin of
                 safety, in light of structural downside in RoAs. Moreover, as the experience of the past
                 several quarters has shown, in spite of the management’s high pedigree, the inherent
                 challenges of building a retail franchise are substantial. In our view, there is a
                 relatively high execution risk involved in the kind of growth that the current valuations
                 imply, especially with respect to the Bank’s Retail business. We remain Neutral on the
                 stock.




April 29, 2010                                                                                               4
Yes Bank I 4QFY2010 Result Update


                 Exhibit 6: P/ABV Band – Yes Bank

                   Rs
                  600

                  500

                  400

                  300

                  200

                  100

                     0
                         Jul-05

                                  Oct-05

                                           Jan-06

                                                     Apr-06

                                                              Jul-06

                                                                       Oct-06

                                                                                 Jan-07

                                                                                          Apr-07

                                                                                                   Jul-07

                                                                                                            Oct-07

                                                                                                                      Jan-08

                                                                                                                               Apr-08

                                                                                                                                        Jul-08

                                                                                                                                                 Oct-08

                                                                                                                                                            Jan-09

                                                                                                                                                                     Apr-09

                                                                                                                                                                              Jul-09

                                                                                                                                                                                       Oct-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                Jan-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                         Apr-10
                                                    Price                       0.5x                  1.5x                     2.5x                       3.5x                  4.5x

                 Source: Company, Angel Research




April 29, 2010                                                                                                                                                                                                    5
Yes Bank I 4QFY2010 Result Update


Income Statement (Rs cr)                                         Ratio Analysis
Y/E March                FY2009    FY2010E   FY2011E   FY2012E   Y/E March                   FY2009    FY2010E   FY2011E   FY2012E
Net Interest Income         511        779     1,000     1,183   Profitability ratios (%)

YoY Growth (%)              54.6      52.3      28.4      18.3   NIMs                            2.7       2.8       2.5       2.4

Other Income                435        585       655       838   Cost to Income ratio           44.2      36.7      37.6      40.5

YoY Growth (%)              20.6      34.4      12.0      28.1   RoA                             1.5       1.7       1.3       1.2

Operating Income            946      1,363     1,654     2,021   RoE                            20.6      20.2      15.8      15.3
YoY Growth (%)              36.9      44.1      21.3      22.2   B/S ratios (%)
Operating Expenses          419        500       623       819   CASA ratio                      8.7      11.0      11.4      12.3
YoY Growth (%)              22.7      19.5      24.5      31.5   Credit/Deposit ratio           76.7      82.8      82.8      82.8
Pre - Provision Profit      528        863     1,031     1,202   CAR                            15.7      20.6      18.1      17.6
YoY Growth (%)              50.7      63.6      19.5      16.6
                                                                 - Tier I                        8.9      12.9      12.0      11.3
Prov. & Cont.                 62       118       187       246
                                                                 Asset Quality (%)
YoY Growth (%)              41.6      91.3      58.0      31.9
                                                                 Gross NPAs                      0.7       0.3       0.3       0.2
Profit Before Tax           466        745       845       956
                                                                 Net NPAs                        0.4       0.1       0.1       0.1
YoY Growth (%)              52.0      59.9      13.4      13.2
                                                                 Slippages                       0.9       1.0       1.1       1.2
Prov. for Taxation         162       253        287        325
                                                                 NPA prov. / avg.
                                                                                                 0.3       0.3       0.4       0.4
as a % of PBT               34.8      34.0      34.0      34.0   assets
                                                                 Provision coverage             48.5      81.0      76.7      76.6
PAT                         304        492       558       631
                                                                 Per Share Data (Rs)
YoY Growth (%)              51.9      61.8      13.4      13.2
                                                                 EPS                            10.2      14.6      16.5      18.7

                                                                 ABVPS (75% Cover.)             53.9      96.4     112.9     131.6

                                                                 DPS                               -         -         -           -

                                                                 Valuation Ratios
Balance Sheet (Rs cr)
                                                                 P/E (x)                        28.6      20.1      17.7      15.7
Y/E March                FY2009    FY2010E   FY2011E   FY2012E
                                                                 P/ABVPS (x)                     5.4       3.0       2.6       2.2
Share Capital               297       338       338       338
                                                                 Dividend Yield                    -         -         -           -
Reserve & Surplus          1,327     2,918     3,475     4,106
                                                                 DuPont Analysis
Deposits                 16,169     26,799    34,838    43,548
Growth (%)                  21.8      65.7      30.0      25.0   NII                             2.6       2.6       2.4       2.3

Borrowings                 2,189     2,000     2,565     3,164   (-) Prov. Exp.                  0.3       0.4       0.4       0.5

Tier 2 Capital             1,513     1,815     2,305     2,882   Adj. NII                        2.3       2.2       2.0       1.8

Other Liab. & Prov.        1,405     2,493     3,116     3,490   Treasury                        0.7       0.3       0.0       0.0
Total Liabilities        22,901     36,362    46,637    57,527   Int. Sens. Inc.                 3.0       2.5       2.0       1.8
Cash balances              1,278     1,340     2,439     3,266
                                                                 Other Inc.                      1.4       1.7       1.6       1.6
Bank balances               645      1,273     1,632     2,013
                                                                 Op. Inc.                        4.4       4.2       3.5       3.4
Investments                7,117     9,974    11,692    13,693
                                                                 Opex                            2.1       1.7       1.5       1.6
Advances                 12,403     22,193    28,851    36,064
                                                                 PBT                             2.3       2.5       2.0       1.8
Growth (%)                  31.5      78.9      30.0      25.0
                                                                 Taxes                           0.8       0.9       0.7       0.6
Fixed Assets                131       127       158       189
Other Assets               1,327     1,454     1,865     2,301   RoA                             1.5       1.7       1.3       1.2

Total Assets             22,901     36,362    46,637    57,527   Leverage                       13.6      12.1      11.7      12.6

Growth (%)                  34.8      58.8      28.3      23.3   RoE                            20.6      20.2      15.8      15.3




April 29, 2010                                                                                                                 6
Yes Bank I 4QFY2010 Result Update




Research Team Tel: 022-4040 3800                                          E-mail: research@angeltrade.com                                       Website: www.angeltrade.com


DISCLAIMER

This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this
document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to
arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved),
and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment.

Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are
inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company
may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as
opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true,
and are for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly,
we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel
Securities Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other
reasons that prevent us from doing so.

This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on,
directly or indirectly.

Angel Securities Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services
in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past.

Neither Angel Securities Limited nor its directors, employees and affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the
use of this information.
Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section).




 Disclosure of Interest Statement                                                           Yes Bank
 1.    Analyst ownership of the stock                                                           No
 2.    Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock                                     No
 3.    Angel and its Group companies’ Directors ownership of the stock                          No
 4.    Broking relationship with company covered                                                No
 Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel and its Group companies.




                                Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059.
                                                                    Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800


    Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE:
    INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946
    Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM /
    CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302




April 29, 2010                                                                                                                                                                              7

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Yes bank ru4 qfy2010-290410

  • 1. 4QFY2010 Result Update I Banking April 29, 2010 Yes Bank NEUTRAL CMP Rs293 Performance Highlights Target Price - Yes Bank reported a strong Net Profit growth of 75% yoy for 4QFY2010, in Investment Period - line with our expectations. During the quarter, the Bank registered a sequential surge in Loans (18.6%) and Deposits (21.6%), which was reflected in the Stock Info sequential NII growth of 15.8%. The equity capital raised boosted the NIMs of Sector Banking the bank during 4QFY2010. However, branch expansion (which is important for CASA accretion) remains behind schedule. We maintain a Neutral view on Market Cap (Rs cr) 9,973 the stock. Beta 1.1 Strong Balance Sheet growth continues: The Bank registered a substantial 52 WK High / Low 288/73 sequential surge in both Loans and Deposits, with Loans growing 18.6% qoq (78.9% yoy) to Rs22,193cr, and Deposits growing 21.6% qoq (65.7% yoy) to Avg. Daily Volume 696800 Rs26,799cr. The bank raised Rs1,034cr of equity capital in January 2010, Face Value (Rs) 10 which aided the bank in reducing its cost of funds. As a result, the reported NIMs of the bank improved by 10bp sequentially to 3.2% in 4QFY2010. The BSE Sensex 17,503 Non-interest income increased by 78.4% yoy to reach Rs160.1cr in 4QFY2010 Nifty 5,254 (25.3% qoq), driven by financial market income and income from transaction banking. The Gross NPA ratio was at 0.3%, while the Net NPA ratio was at Reuters Code YESB.BO 0.1%, as at 4QFY2010 (as against 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively, as at Bloomberg Code YES@IN 4QFY2009). The Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) of the bank has improved to 20.6%, with Tier-I capital of 12.9%, which increased from 9.0% in 3QFY2010, Shareholding Pattern (%) on the back of Rs1,034cr of equity capital raised in January 2010. Promoters 27.2 Outlook and Valuation: At the CMP, the stock is trading at expensive MF/Banks/Indian FIs 6.4 valuations of 15.7x FY2012E EPS of Rs18.7 and 2.2x FY2012E ABV of Rs131.6. We believe that this leaves little margin of safety, in light of structural FII/NRIs/OCBs 58.1 downside in RoAs. Moreover, as the interest rate rises, the cost of funds for the Indian Public 8.4 bank is expected to rise at a faster rate, due to the wholesale-based funding mix of the bank. Further, as the experience of the past several quarters has Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr shown, in spite of the management’s high pedigree, the inherent challenges of Sensex 7.0 53.5 25.8 building a retail franchise are substantial. In our view, there is a relatively high execution risk involved in the kind of growth that the current valuations imply, Yes Bank 62.5 279.5 93.2 especially with respect to the Bank’s Retail business. We remain Neutral on the stock. Key Financials Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E NII 511 779 1,000 1,183 % chg 54.6 52.3 28.4 18.3 Net Profit 304 492 558 631 % chg 51.9 61.8 13.4 13.2 NIM (%) 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.4 Vaibhav Agrawal EPS (Rs) 10.2 14.6 16.5 18.7 Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 333 P/E (x) 28.6 20.1 17.7 15.7 E-mail: vaibhav.agrawal@angeltrade.com P/ABV (x) 5.4 3.0 2.6 2.2 Amit Rane RoA (%) 1.5 1.7 1.3 1.2 Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 326 RoE (%) 20.6 20.2 15.8 15.3 E-mail: amitn.rane@angeltrade.com Source: Company, Angel Research 1 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
  • 2. Yes Bank I 4QFY2010 Result Update Exhibit 1: 4QFY2010 Performance Y/E March (Rs cr) 4QFY10 3QFY10 % chg (qoq) 4QFY09 % chg (yoy) FY10 FY09 % chg Interest Earned 665 626 6.1 566 17.4 2,361 2,003 17.8 Interest Expenses 420 415 1.2 411 2.3 1,582 1,492 6.0 Net Interest Income 244 211 15.8 155 57.3 779 511 52.3 Non-Interest Income 160 127.8 25.3 90 78.4 585 469 24.7 Total Income 404 339 19.4 245 65.0 1,363 980 39.1 Operating Expenses 147 123 19.7 91 61.2 500 419 19.5 Pre-Prov. Profit 258 216 19.2 154 67.3 863 562 53.7 Provisions & Cont. 43 25.38 67.7 32 32.2 137 96 43.1 PBT 215 191 12.7 122 76.6 726 466 55.9 Prov. for Taxes 75 65 15.6 42 80.1 249 162 53.5 PAT 140 126 11.2 80 74.8 478 304 57.2 EPS (Rs) 4.1 4.2 (2.2) 2.7 53.7 14.1 10.2 38.3 Cost to Income (%) 36.3 36.2 37.2 36.7 42.7 Effective Tax Rate (%) 34.9 34.0 34.2 34.2 34.8 Net NPA (%) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 Source: Company, Angel Research Strong Business Growth Continues The bank registered a substantial sequential surge in both loans and deposits, with loans growing 18.6% qoq (78.9% yoy) to Rs22,193cr and deposits growing 21.6% qoq (65.7% yoy) to Rs26,799cr. CASA deposits also recorded a similar surge, and the CASA ratio stood at 10.5% (10.1% in 3QFY2010). The growth on the asset-side was mainly driven by sectors such as infrastructure (Power, Oil, Gas), Engineering, Telecom, and also by the year-end advances to the priority sector. Exhibit 2: Advances Break-up as on 4QFY2010 Branch Banking 5% Commercial Banking 26% Corp & Insti Banking 69% Source: Company, Angel Research Strong Net Interest Income growth The NII of the bank registered a growth of 57.3% yoy and 15.7% qoq to Rs244cr in 4QFY2010. The reported NIMs of the bank improved by 10bp sequentially to 3.2% in 4QFY2010, on the back of the benefit of Rs1,034cr through a QIP in January 2010. The cost of funds of the bank reduced from 6.6% in 3QFY2010 to 6.3% in 4QFY2010. April 29, 2010 2
  • 3. Yes Bank I 4QFY2010 Result Update Exhibit 3: Trend in Quarterly Reported NIMs % 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 4QFY2008 1QFY2009 2QFY2009 3QFY2009 4QFY2009 1QFY2010 2QFY2010 3QFY2010 4QFY2010 Source: Company, Angel Research Asset-quality healthy, in a cyclical context The Gross NPA ratio was at 0.3%, while the Net NPA ratio was at 0.1%, as at 4QFY2010 (as against 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively, as at 4QFY2009). The bank’s restructured advances declined by Rs54cr during the quarter, taking the total restructured advances to Rs80cr at the end of 4QFY2010, and constituted 0.4% of the Advances. In our opinion, the present level of gross NPAs is significantly lower than the sectoral averages relative to the Bank’s high-yield credit portfolio. Accordingly, from a structural point-of-view, we believe that asset-quality deterioration remains a risk for the bank. Strong Non-interest Income Non-interest income increased by 78.4% yoy to reach Rs160.1cr in 4QFY2010 (25.3% qoq). The financial market income witnessed strong traction, and grew by 69.3% qoq and 42.8% yoy to Rs47cr. Income from transaction banking also increased by a strong 16.4% qoq and 71.4% yoy to Rs43cr. The non-interest income to average Assets stood at a healthy level of 2.0% in FY2010. Exhibit 4: Trend in Non-Interest Income Mix Rs cr 250 200 150 100 50 - 4QFY08 1QFY09 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 Financial markets Financial advisory Transaction banking Retail, Others Source: Company, Angel Research Operating Expenses under control, but muted branch expansion Operating expenses increased by 61.2% yoy and 19.7% qoq, to reach Rs147cr. However, the operating income of the bank grew at a much faster rate of 65% yoy which was reflected in an improvement in the cost-to-income ratio to 36.3% (37.2% in 4QFY2009). During the quarter, the bank opened 18 branches, taking the total network to 150. The bank plans to open 70 branches in FY2011E. April 29, 2010 3
  • 4. Yes Bank I 4QFY2010 Result Update We believe that building CASA deposits is a key challenge for the Bank, the lack of which renders the bank at a cost disadvantage to larger banks, and is exacerbated by regulatory reserve requirements. Branch expansion plans, a key driver for CASA growth, have fallen behind schedule several times. Even otherwise, the management’s CASA target of 25% by FY2012E (50% CAGR in CASA) appears difficult to achieve. Exhibit 5: Trend in Branch Expansion Nos 170.0 150 150.0 132 123 126 130.0 117 109 110.0 101 90.0 80 67 70.0 50.0 4QFY08 1QFY09 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 Source: Company, Angel Research Strong Capital Adequacy The Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) of the bank has improved to 20.6%, with Tier-I capital of 12.9%, which increased from 9.0% in 3QFY2010, on the back of Rs1,034cr of equity capital raised in January 2010. The bank also raised Rs82cr of Hybrid Tier-I debt and Rs300cr of Subordinated Lower Tier-II debt during the quarter. Outlook and Valuation The bank’s high NIMs are a function of a higher yield on advances, while, at the same time, the provisioning costs have been lower than the sectoral average. Hence, we believe that asset-quality deterioration remains a significant risk for the bank. Moreover, as the interest rate rises, the cost of funds for the bank is expected to rise at a faster rate, due to the wholesale-based funding mix of the bank. Accordingly, we expect a lower Net Profit growth of 13.4% yoy in FY2011E and 13.2 yoy in FY2012E as compared to 61.8% growth in FY2010. Moreover, due to equity dilution, the RoE of the bank is expected to decline to 15.3% in FY2012E from 20.2% for FY2010. At the CMP, the stock is trading at expensive valuations of 15.7x FY2012E EPS of Rs18.7 and 2.2x FY2012E ABV of Rs131.6. We believe that this leaves little margin of safety, in light of structural downside in RoAs. Moreover, as the experience of the past several quarters has shown, in spite of the management’s high pedigree, the inherent challenges of building a retail franchise are substantial. In our view, there is a relatively high execution risk involved in the kind of growth that the current valuations imply, especially with respect to the Bank’s Retail business. We remain Neutral on the stock. April 29, 2010 4
  • 5. Yes Bank I 4QFY2010 Result Update Exhibit 6: P/ABV Band – Yes Bank Rs 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Price 0.5x 1.5x 2.5x 3.5x 4.5x Source: Company, Angel Research April 29, 2010 5
  • 6. Yes Bank I 4QFY2010 Result Update Income Statement (Rs cr) Ratio Analysis Y/E March FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Y/E March FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Net Interest Income 511 779 1,000 1,183 Profitability ratios (%) YoY Growth (%) 54.6 52.3 28.4 18.3 NIMs 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.4 Other Income 435 585 655 838 Cost to Income ratio 44.2 36.7 37.6 40.5 YoY Growth (%) 20.6 34.4 12.0 28.1 RoA 1.5 1.7 1.3 1.2 Operating Income 946 1,363 1,654 2,021 RoE 20.6 20.2 15.8 15.3 YoY Growth (%) 36.9 44.1 21.3 22.2 B/S ratios (%) Operating Expenses 419 500 623 819 CASA ratio 8.7 11.0 11.4 12.3 YoY Growth (%) 22.7 19.5 24.5 31.5 Credit/Deposit ratio 76.7 82.8 82.8 82.8 Pre - Provision Profit 528 863 1,031 1,202 CAR 15.7 20.6 18.1 17.6 YoY Growth (%) 50.7 63.6 19.5 16.6 - Tier I 8.9 12.9 12.0 11.3 Prov. & Cont. 62 118 187 246 Asset Quality (%) YoY Growth (%) 41.6 91.3 58.0 31.9 Gross NPAs 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.2 Profit Before Tax 466 745 845 956 Net NPAs 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 YoY Growth (%) 52.0 59.9 13.4 13.2 Slippages 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 Prov. for Taxation 162 253 287 325 NPA prov. / avg. 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 as a % of PBT 34.8 34.0 34.0 34.0 assets Provision coverage 48.5 81.0 76.7 76.6 PAT 304 492 558 631 Per Share Data (Rs) YoY Growth (%) 51.9 61.8 13.4 13.2 EPS 10.2 14.6 16.5 18.7 ABVPS (75% Cover.) 53.9 96.4 112.9 131.6 DPS - - - - Valuation Ratios Balance Sheet (Rs cr) P/E (x) 28.6 20.1 17.7 15.7 Y/E March FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E P/ABVPS (x) 5.4 3.0 2.6 2.2 Share Capital 297 338 338 338 Dividend Yield - - - - Reserve & Surplus 1,327 2,918 3,475 4,106 DuPont Analysis Deposits 16,169 26,799 34,838 43,548 Growth (%) 21.8 65.7 30.0 25.0 NII 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.3 Borrowings 2,189 2,000 2,565 3,164 (-) Prov. Exp. 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 Tier 2 Capital 1,513 1,815 2,305 2,882 Adj. NII 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 Other Liab. & Prov. 1,405 2,493 3,116 3,490 Treasury 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total Liabilities 22,901 36,362 46,637 57,527 Int. Sens. Inc. 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.8 Cash balances 1,278 1,340 2,439 3,266 Other Inc. 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.6 Bank balances 645 1,273 1,632 2,013 Op. Inc. 4.4 4.2 3.5 3.4 Investments 7,117 9,974 11,692 13,693 Opex 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.6 Advances 12,403 22,193 28,851 36,064 PBT 2.3 2.5 2.0 1.8 Growth (%) 31.5 78.9 30.0 25.0 Taxes 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 Fixed Assets 131 127 158 189 Other Assets 1,327 1,454 1,865 2,301 RoA 1.5 1.7 1.3 1.2 Total Assets 22,901 36,362 46,637 57,527 Leverage 13.6 12.1 11.7 12.6 Growth (%) 34.8 58.8 28.3 23.3 RoE 20.6 20.2 15.8 15.3 April 29, 2010 6
  • 7. Yes Bank I 4QFY2010 Result Update Research Team Tel: 022-4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, and are for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Securities Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Securities Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Securities Limited nor its directors, employees and affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Disclosure of Interest Statement Yes Bank 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No 3. Angel and its Group companies’ Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel and its Group companies. Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059. Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800 Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946 Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302 April 29, 2010 7