WebRTC Market Status & Forecasts: Keynote from WebRTC Paris Conference, December 2013

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Keynote presentation by Dean Bubley, at the Upperside conference on WebRTC, December 11-12 in Roissy, Paris. Covers forecast device support, use-cases, strategic issues & benefits, browser vs. mobile support & value chain trends

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WebRTC Market Status & Forecasts: Keynote from WebRTC Paris Conference, December 2013

  1. 1. WebRTC Market Status & Forecasts: Beyond the Phone Call Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Paris, December, 2013 dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean
  2. 2. About Disruptive Analysis        London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm Cross-silo, contrarian, visionary, independent Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors Covering VoIP since 1997 & 3G/4G mVoIP since 2007 Published report on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, Feb 2012 Full report on WebRTC, Feb 2013, updated Jun & Oct’13 Workshops on Future of Voice & TelcoOTT Twitter @disruptivedean Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com Contact information@disruptive-analysis.com for details on WebRTC analyst report & for speaking engagements December 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  3. 3. Intent & context.... Why do people make phone calls (or send messages, share media or use video), anyway? December 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  4. 4. The chart you’ll never see… calls by “purpose” Gossip Meeting up Flirting Spam Showing off Work Wasting time December 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  5. 5. Out walking Different contexts Using an app Public transport Living room Board room Bar December 2013 & Multi-tasking Concentrating Drunk Asleep At work Airline lounge Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  6. 6. 1 OR 2 “UBIQUITOUS SERVICES” CANNOT FULFILL ALL THESE PURPOSES WELL (MORE LIKE “DUMB SERVICES” THAN UBIQUITOUS ONES) December 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  7. 7. Fragmentation of communications models Standalone Circuit calls Good to have “lowest common denominator” IP Embedded app/web voice & video Non-call comms Maybe ubiquitous in a niche Ubiquity no/negative benefit December 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  8. 8. The vision: voice & video comms everywhere December 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  9. 9. WebRTC & HTML5 are game-changers Service e.g. SMS, Telephony Product e.g. Lync, Uberconference Feature e.g. Business social Function December 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  10. 10. Why is WebRTC important?           WebRTC is maybe most exciting thing in comms for 10 years Already here & being used A “movement” as well as a standard “Democratisation” of voice & video into web & apps Goes beyond traditional “call” model of user interaction Low bar to experimentation (eg open-source) Realtime data will be the real surprise Not just about browsers A new ecosystem for developers, telcos & cloud players Billions of devices & users! December 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  11. 11. ... although not quite as “easy as it looks” yet Signalling Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  12. 12. 3-way support for WebRTC now expanding Enterprise Network tools Devices WebRTC Consumer Web Telco TV & gaming Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  13. 13. View Oct’13: lead WebRTC use-cases Early enterprise adoption Live & commercial Initial consumer web apps/devices Pilots / precommercial Trials & demos December 2013 Verticals & corporate Telco, Entertainment, M2M, other… Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  14. 14. WebRTC supported on >4bn devices by 2016 Contact information@disruptiveanalysis.com for details on WebRTC analyst report & for speaking engagements Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Strategy Report update October 2013 December 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  15. 15. WebRTC rapidly expanding past “calls” December 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  16. 16. The future? Sleep Apnoea (snoring + breathing) monitoring & diagnosis: not a “phone call”! December 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  17. 17. Beyond browsers: mobile apps & API platforms 3000 Installed base, m 2500 Total WebRTC mobile devices 2000 - Browser support 1500 - Non-browser support 1000 500 0 Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Strategy Report update October 2013 December 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  18. 18. For telcos WebRTC is really a magnifier/catalyst Now With WebRTC Bigger opportunities Worse threats Faster speed December 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  19. 19. Main WebRTC strategies for SPs? Extend onnet services & IMS / SS7 Strengthen enterprise & verticals Turbocharge Telco-OTT apps TV, entertai n- ment & digital services Sell packaged WebRTC services to subscriber Enhance developer platform(s) December 2013 IMS should be <30% total WebRTC effort & investment. Too slow, too call-centric Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 Also: invest / incubate Improve own CRM & systems Maybe M2M, devices etc
  20. 20. WebRTC about to fragment? Javascript APIs Original concept for WebRTC Standalone PC or mobile app Now Codecs & network & security protocols Codecs & network & security protocols 3rd party APIs Codecs & network & security protocols Browser or apps Native OS APIs OS Codecs & network & security protocols Future December 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  21. 21. WebRTC made easier via 3rd-party APIs CU-RTC-Web? December 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  22. 22. WebRTC in 2014: what to expect?  1.7bn WebRTC-supporting devices end-’14    Active WebRTC user base 600m     Some fragmentation is inevitable Several major Internet players using WebRTC Enterprise use-cases still leading, consumer catching up Telco use patchy, centred on developers / Telco-OTT   Includes “lightweight”/background WebRTC usage Apple & Microsoft weakly supporting WebRTC   Mobile devices almost 500m Non-browser support growing rapidly Slow deployment & uptake of IMS-integrated WebRTC Surprises! Especially around data use of WebRTC December 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  23. 23. Contact information@disruptiveanalysis.com for details on WebRTC analyst report & for speaking engagements www.disruptive-analysis.com disruptivewireless.blogspot.com @disruptivedean information@disruptive-analysis.com December 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

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