Keynote presentation by Dean Bubley, at the Upperside conference on WebRTC, December 11-12 in Roissy, Paris. Covers forecast device support, use-cases, strategic issues & benefits, browser vs. mobile support & value chain trends
WebRTC Market Status & Forecasts: Keynote from WebRTC Paris Conference, December 2013
1. WebRTC Market Status & Forecasts:
Beyond the Phone Call
Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
WebRTC Paris, December, 2013
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com
@disruptivedean
2. About Disruptive Analysis
London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm
Cross-silo, contrarian, visionary, independent
Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors
Covering VoIP since 1997 & 3G/4G mVoIP since 2007
Published report on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, Feb 2012
Full report on WebRTC, Feb 2013, updated Jun & Oct’13
Workshops on Future of Voice & TelcoOTT
Twitter @disruptivedean
Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
Contact information@disruptive-analysis.com for details
on WebRTC analyst report & for speaking engagements
December 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
3. Intent & context....
Why do people make
phone calls (or send
messages, share media
or use video), anyway?
December 2013
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4. The chart you’ll never see… calls by “purpose”
Gossip
Meeting up
Flirting
Spam
Showing off
Work
Wasting time
December 2013
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5. Out walking
Different contexts
Using an app
Public transport
Living room
Board room
Bar
December 2013
& Multi-tasking
Concentrating
Drunk
Asleep
At work
Airline lounge
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6. 1 OR 2 “UBIQUITOUS
SERVICES” CANNOT
FULFILL ALL THESE
PURPOSES WELL
(MORE LIKE “DUMB SERVICES” THAN
UBIQUITOUS ONES)
December 2013
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7. Fragmentation of communications models
Standalone
Circuit calls
Good to have “lowest
common denominator”
IP
Embedded
app/web
voice &
video
Non-call
comms
Maybe ubiquitous
in a niche
Ubiquity no/negative
benefit
December 2013
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8. The vision: voice & video comms everywhere
December 2013
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9. WebRTC & HTML5 are game-changers
Service
e.g. SMS, Telephony
Product
e.g. Lync, Uberconference
Feature
e.g. Business social
Function
December 2013
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10. Why is WebRTC important?
WebRTC is maybe most exciting thing in comms for 10 years
Already here & being used
A “movement” as well as a standard
“Democratisation” of voice & video into web & apps
Goes beyond traditional “call” model of user interaction
Low bar to experimentation (eg open-source)
Realtime data will be the real surprise
Not just about browsers
A new ecosystem for developers, telcos & cloud players
Billions of devices & users!
December 2013
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11. ... although not quite as “easy as it looks” yet
Signalling
Oct 2013
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12. 3-way support for WebRTC now expanding
Enterprise
Network
tools
Devices
WebRTC
Consumer
Web
Telco
TV &
gaming
Oct 2013
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13. View Oct’13: lead WebRTC use-cases
Early enterprise adoption
Live &
commercial
Initial consumer web apps/devices
Pilots / precommercial
Trials &
demos
December 2013
Verticals & corporate
Telco, Entertainment, M2M, other…
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14. WebRTC supported on >4bn devices by 2016
Contact information@disruptiveanalysis.com for details on
WebRTC analyst report & for
speaking engagements
Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Strategy Report update October 2013
December 2013
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16. The future?
Sleep Apnoea (snoring + breathing) monitoring & diagnosis:
not a “phone call”!
December 2013
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17. Beyond browsers: mobile apps & API platforms
3000
Installed base, m
2500
Total WebRTC mobile devices
2000
- Browser support
1500
- Non-browser support
1000
500
0
Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Strategy Report update October 2013
December 2013
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18. For telcos WebRTC is really a magnifier/catalyst
Now
With WebRTC
Bigger opportunities
Worse threats
Faster speed
December 2013
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19. Main WebRTC strategies for SPs?
Extend onnet services
& IMS / SS7
Strengthen
enterprise &
verticals
Turbocharge
Telco-OTT
apps
TV, entertai
n- ment &
digital
services
Sell
packaged
WebRTC
services to
subscriber
Enhance
developer
platform(s)
December 2013
IMS should be <30% total
WebRTC effort &
investment. Too slow, too
call-centric
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Also: invest / incubate
Improve own CRM & systems
Maybe M2M, devices etc
20. WebRTC about to fragment?
Javascript APIs
Original concept for
WebRTC
Standalone
PC or mobile
app
Now
Codecs &
network
& security
protocols
Codecs & network
& security
protocols
3rd party APIs
Codecs &
network & security
protocols
Browser
or apps
Native OS
APIs
OS
Codecs &
network &
security
protocols
Future
December 2013
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21. WebRTC made easier via 3rd-party APIs
CU-RTC-Web?
December 2013
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22. WebRTC in 2014: what to expect?
1.7bn WebRTC-supporting devices end-’14
Active WebRTC user base 600m
Some fragmentation is inevitable
Several major Internet players using WebRTC
Enterprise use-cases still leading, consumer catching up
Telco use patchy, centred on developers / Telco-OTT
Includes “lightweight”/background WebRTC usage
Apple & Microsoft weakly supporting WebRTC
Mobile devices almost 500m
Non-browser support growing rapidly
Slow deployment & uptake of IMS-integrated WebRTC
Surprises! Especially around data use of WebRTC
December 2013
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23. Contact
information@disruptiveanalysis.com for details
on WebRTC analyst
report & for speaking
engagements
www.disruptive-analysis.com
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
@disruptivedean
information@disruptive-analysis.com
December 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013