The Future of Voice Welcome presentation that Dean Bubley and Martin Geddes gave at the Future of Voice workshop. It raises some important questions including "Does traditional telephony have a future?" "What's new in voice, video and messaging?" and "What's being adopted?"

1. Welcome to the
Future of Voice Workshop
8th October 2013
Dean Bubley & Martin Geddes
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com
mail@martingeddes.com

2. Introduction

3. Voice is hot! But telephony is not....
Two years ago
 Predicting “peak telephony”
 Risk of voice over-supply
 OTT = threat
 WebRTC = “What?”
 Voice-in-apps as concept
 CEBP
 VoLTE = problems foreseen
 RCS = dead
 BYOD
 Skype, Facebook, G Voice
Now
 Volume & value declines
 Risk of voice under-demand
 OTT = partner / opportunity
 WebRTC = real, growing
 APIs & cloud telephony
 Hypervoice
 VoLTE = problems real
 RCS = undead
 BYOX
 Instagram, Snapchat, Kik
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

4. Source: Finnish regulator
Note: fixed calls getting
shorter, mobile longer
Vodafone
OpCos
Germany
UK
Netherlan
ds
Turkey
Romania
Spain
Greece
Portugal
India3
Egypt
Oct 2013
Change in usage/sub Q2'12
vs Q2'13
Call Mins
SMS
20%
-3%
3%
-9%
-7%
-40%
11%
3%
29%
-4%
3%
7%
-2%
15%
26%
-27%
-13%
5%
31%
-41%
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

5. Where do you stand?

6. Does traditional
telephony have a future?
Short and
brutal
Long and
fruitful

7. Questions
Who are you?
 What is your purpose in being here?

Are there any “burning issues” you have?
 Do you have any questions you want
answered today?


Why do you locate yourself in that place?
Oct 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

8. What’s happening?

9. What Dean Bubley is working on....

WebRTC






Trends in legacy voice & SMS
Video – where’s it going to fit?
Telecom vendor value chain & dynamics





Research reports & updates
Vendor & operator private workshops; “Where’s the money?”
Speaking engagements, webinars & white papers
“Why did Oracle buy Acme?”, “Is open-source a big deal?”
Telco/OTT, Telco-OTT & Telco vs. OTT
WiFi & small cells
Policy management & charging; MBB business models
Regulatory – spectrum, Net Neutrality, Internet governance
Oct 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

10. What Martin Geddes is working on....

Cloud (voice) connectivity “supply chain management”




QoE measurement and cost management




Multi-point network probing (“fMRI scans for networks”)
Telco “lifestyle changes” – to lower cost/raise QoE
“Collapsing complexity” in OSS/BSS
Regulatory – “fitness-for-purpose”



Retail broadband business model (esp. OTT partnership)
Wholesale service delivery chain (e.g. IPX)
Carrier-neutral cloud platforms, performance & hazard analysis
Changing basis of broadband regulation away from “peak speeds”
Network neutrality
Whacky obscure mathematical future network stuff

Oct 2013
Contention Management, RINA
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

11. What’s going
on for you?

12. Questions

What's moving:
 faster than you anticipated?
 slower than your expectations?
What’s easier or harder?
 What’s surprised you?

Oct 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

13. What’s next?

14. Where are we? What’s the landscape?
1.
Background trends
 What’s new & what’s real?
2.
3.
4.
Hypervoice
WebRTC
“Other stuff”
Oct 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

15. What’s new in voice, video & messaging?
Dull
Oct 2013
Shiny
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

16. Lot of important stuff occurring, but....

Tariffs & plans

BYOD

Regulation

Enterprise UC

HD Voice

SIP trunking

Outsourcing

Cable voice
Oct 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

17. Sexy, shiny stuff!

WebRTC

New apps

Hypervoice

Cloud / APIs

Telco-OTT

NFV / SDN

New revenue

Video
Oct 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

18. Fragmentation of voice (& video) models
Standalone
calls
Embedded
app/web
calls
Oct 2013
Non-call
comms
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

19. Neuroscience explains reluctance to change

Predictable irrationality

Endowment effect
Optimism bias
Confirmation bias
Defence of belief systems



Oct 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

20. Get in touch
We can help you prepare for a
world where voice is a feature,
not a service. Find out more
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com
twitter.com/disruptivedean
www.disruptive-analysis.com
Newsletter
Oct 2013
mail@martingeddes.com
Twitter.com/martingeddes
www.martingeddes.com
Newsletter
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013