Stories to Watch 2012

MANISH BAPNA, INTERIM PRESIDENT JANUARY 10, 2012

The Prediction Game

How Will 2011 Be Remembered?

How Will 2011 Be Remembered?http://www.inquisitr.com/168221/occupy-wall-street-stomps-on-stimulus/

Stories to Watch 20121. U.S. Climate & Energy in an Election Year2. Transitions in China3. An Overlooked Breadbasket4. Renewable Energy: Boom or Bust?5. A Bravo for Rio?

U.S. Climate Policy - 2011Pres. Obama calls for clean National vehicle rules establishedenergy standards EPA Mercury & Air Toxics Rules CA Air Resources Board adopts final cap-and-trade regulationJan. Mar. Jul. Oct. Nov. Dec. EPA ozone rules delayed Sec. Clinton urges EU to change approach to curbing aviation emissionsOffshore drilling expanded Keystone decision delayed

U.S. GHG Emissions Target for 2020Source: Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the United States Using Existing Federal Authorities and StateAction, World Resources Institute, 2010

Administration’s Rulemaking Report Card YES NOPower Plant Performance StandardsEfficiency Standards for Appliances andEquipmentTransportation Standards for Light-DutyVehicles MY 2017-2025Refinery Performance StandardsNatural Gas System Regulations for VOCs,SO2, & ToxicsHydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)

CA & RGGI States Represent Sizable Economies Percent of U.S. GDP 2009 California • CA: GHG cap-and-trade 13.3% program in 2013 will cover 85% of emissions by 2015 • RGGI: GHG cap-and- RGGI trade program for electricity (10 states) U.S. (balance) covers more than 20% of 19% 67.7% regions total emissionsSource: US Census

Yesterday & Today“I will clean up the planet, I will “Let us resolve that all nations--includingmake global warming a priority.” my own--will act with seriousness of purpose, and reduce the carbon we sendSen. John McCain, Jan. 2008 into our atmosphere.” Candidate Barack Obama, July 2008

Yesterday & Today “I do support capping carbon emissions.” Gov. Sarah Palin October 2008, Vice Presidential Debate

Campaign 2012

Stories to Watch 20121. U.S. Climate & Energy in an Election Year2. Transitions in China3. An Overlooked Breadbasket?4. Renewable Energy: Boom or Bust?5. A Bravo for Rio?

China’s President, Premier and Politburo Xi Jinping Li Keqiang1. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-03/15/xin_4720305151238906199427.jpg2. http://www.wantchinatimes.com/whoswho-cnt.aspx?id=20101208000064&cid=20 3. http://tilt.ft.com/#!posts/2011-08/26926/chinas-changing-of-guard

Clean Energy Trade War?

Coal Consumption in China Total Energy Consumption (Btu) in China, 2008US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, “Country Analysis Brief: China”http://205.254.135.24/countries/cab.cfm?fips=CH

China’s Provincial CO2 Trading Systems “It’s very clear in China’s Five- Year Plan that it’s our objective to gradually establish a national system on carbon emissions trading.” - Su Wei Su Wei Director General for Climate Change National Development and Reform CommissionPhoto by Miguel Villagran/Getty Images Europe

CO2 & Efficiency Trading Around the World EU RGGI States ChinaCalifornia Provinces India Australia New Zealand

Accelerating Global Food Demand

Annual Average Global Yield Rates Crop 1961-1990 1990-2007 % Difference Wheat 2.9 0.5 - 83% Maize 2.2 1.8 - 18% Rice 2.2 0.9 - 59% Soya 1.8 1.1 - 39%Source: Alston, Beddow and Pardey (2009) using FAO (2008) and USDA FAS (2008)

Degraded Lands: An Opportunity?Indonesia Brazil

Restoration Stories in 2012 Indonesia BrazilConsumer Goods Forum Consumershttp://www.globalforestwatch.org/english/indonesia/forests.htmhttp://indepthafrica.com/global-issues/dilma-rousseff-declares-the-winner-of-brazil-election/

Global Energy Investment for Power GenerationSource:EIA, IEA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

IPCC Global Review of Renewable EnergyIPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources-SPM 2011, pg 10.

Residential Solar Power by 2015 (U.S.)NREL, Break-Even Cost for Residential Photovoltaics in the United States, 2009, Figure 8.

And competitively priced renewables are not just taking off in the U.S… China: Wind energy competitive in two years Italy, Spain, Greece & Portugal: and solar PV by 2015. Solar PV competitive within two years. India: Solar PV Germany: Wind competitive with on-FL, NC, NJ, Southwest: electricity spot grid diesel generation.Solar PV close tocompetitive with fossil prices cheaper thanfuels. fossil fuels some days in 2011. Brazil: In 2011, Wind energy Island Nations, Japan & Hawaii: auctions undercut price of Solar PV competitive within two natural gas. years.

The Shale Gas Boom Time Magazine, April 2011

U.S. Clean Energy Policy & IncentivesSource: Brookings

Earth Summits 1972-2012 Stockholm 1972 Rio 1992 Johannesburg 2002 Rio 2012

Rio Earth Summit 2012 Green Economy Institutional Framework for Sustainable Development

Rio: What are they saying?• Green economy roadmap, UNEO• No new institutions, engage private sector and social media• Late engagement, defensive posture• Keep “common but differentiated responsibilities”• Opportunity to shine, strong involvement of Rio city

What to Look for at Rio+20 Energy Access Food Security Water Governancehttp://www.nexusafrica.ca/africa-in-2011-getting-out-the-vote-the-call/http://www.new-ventures.org/content/scaling-clean-energy-access-india-workshophttp://vivekitam.wordpress.com/2011/01/14/a-paperback-analysis-of-nacs-food-security-proposal-part-2/© ICRC

MANISH BAPNA, INTERIM PRESIDENT JANUARY 10, 2012

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Stories to Watch 2012

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