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Du Global Energy Overview 5 6 09


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Du Global Energy Overview 5 6 09

  1. 1. <ul><ul><li>GLOBAL ENERGY OVERVIEW </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>WHY WE NEED TO SET A COMPREHENSIVE </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>VISION & STRETCH GOALS FOR USA </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>TO REGAIN GLOBAL LEADERSHIP IN SEI </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(SUSTAINABLE ENERGY INITIATIVES) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>BY PROBIR GHOSH </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>PRESIDENT & CEO VSNI </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A STRATEGIC THINK TANK & ADVISORY SERVICES FIRM </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>WWW.VSNICORP.COM </li></ul></ul>
  2. 2. <ul><ul><li>PART I: Global Energy Overview </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Welcome & Introductions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Global Energy Usage Perspective: Cause & Effects </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Escalating Energy Costs & Security Caused by Growth </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Climate Change from Fossil Fuel based Energy </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Global Overview of Sustainable Energy Initiatives </li></ul></ul>This presentation was gleaned from many months of intensive research from hundreds of databases, articles, journals and books, as well as discussion and debates around world energy dynamics, renewable energy and global climate change with several thought leaders in the industry. This is a work in progress and will continually get updated as more inputs come in from everyone involved. This presentation is the property of VSNI and express written permission is required before any part of the presentation is used for commercial benefits. <ul><ul><li>PART II: Enabling SEI Global Leadership for USA </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>invVEST Purpose & Strategy Overview </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>invVEST specific initiatives </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Inter actions in SEI Community & SEI Marketplace </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Q&A & Feedback, Wrap up. </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. Developed Countries vs. Developing Countries Population & GDP Growth Profile Economies need to grow consistently to avoid Recession USA : 06 pop. 307M India: 06 pop. 1,100M China: 06 pop. 1,280M Japan 06 pop. 127M 3 rd in 1990 to 3 rd in 2030 2000 GDP: $ 9.8T 2030GDP: $20.8T -2-4% growth 2 nd in 1990 to 1 st in 2030 2000 GDP: $0.5T 2030GDP: $ 4.9T 6- 9% growth 8 -12% growth 2000 GDP: $1.1T 2030GDP: $ 14.3T 1 st in 1990 to 2 nd in 2030 9 th in 1990 to 15 th in 2030 2000 GDP: $4.2T 2030GDP: $ 5.8T OECD* Europe: 06 pop. 400M 1990 to 2030 practically flat 2000 GDP: $11T 2030GDP: $20T -1-3% growth Adapted from IMF & Goldman Sachs data Population & Economic Growth specially from China will CAUSE….. India while projected to have the largest population in the world will have a much smaller GDP compared to China in 2030. China will be 70% of US GDP by 2030 without considering PPP… With PPP China will exceed US GDP *OECD abbr. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Brazil Russia
  4. 4. A STATUS QUO GLOBAL ENERGY SNAPSHOT OECD Europe & USA Energy Usage Overview USA ‘ 06 pop. 307M 3 rd in 1990 to 3 rd in 2030 Quadrillion Btu Steady Economic Growth in USA & OECD Europe CAUSES… …… increased demand for Energy … adapted from EIA databases OECD: 06 pop. 400M 1990 to 2030 practically flat 2000 GDP: $11T 2030GDP: $16T While 23 countries under OECD Europe have higher population & GDP than USA, it consumes 25% less energy & creates 40% more energy from renewables compared to USA & the gap has been increasing Issue # 1: USA Consumes 54% more energy/capita than OECD Europe while having the same GDP/Capita Profile 1990 2010 2030
  5. 5. A STATUS QUO GLOBAL ENERGY SNAPSHOT Implications of rapid growth in developing countries China will consume more energy than USA by 2020 & by 2030 will consume 30% more energy than USA Jockeying for limited fossil fuel resources increases exponentially USA ‘ 06 pop. 307M ‘ 06 pop. 1,280M CHINA 3 rd in 1990 to 3 rd in 2030 1 st in 1990 to 2 nd in 2030 Quadrillion Btu CAUSES Population & High Economic Growth in China and other developing countries CAUSES… …… Rapid Growth in Energy Consumption … adapted from EIA databases India is a non player as far as current energy generation trends and pollution it causes globally. 1990 2010 2030
  6. 6. FOSSIL OIL GLOBAL ENERGY RESERVES <ul><li>Dominant use of Oil: </li></ul><ul><li>Transportation 70 - 80% </li></ul><ul><li>Industrial Process Heating </li></ul><ul><li>While Oil pollutes less than Coal, the </li></ul><ul><li>sheer volume of usage/year, 170Qbtu </li></ul><ul><li>vs. 130Qbtu for coal, made it </li></ul><ul><li>the largest CO 2 polluter until 2007 </li></ul>Middle-East, Venezuela, Russia, Nigeria control almost 75% of proven reserves USA Energy Security & Prosperity Issues
  7. 7. FOSSIL OIL STATUS QUO Limited Resources will Escalate Price and Energy Security Issues Exponentially Mid-East Oil Russia Canada As per IEA: The world has to invest $30 Trillion by 2030 to tap new oilfields as current ones dwindle to meet the increased demand. INCREASED DEMAND FOR LIMITED RESOURCES OF FOSSIL OIL WILL ESCALATE PRICES AND INCREASE ENERGY SECURITY ISSUES EXPONENTIALLY Intake figures are in Quadrillion Btu Number of years if current oil consumption Projections by EIA are followed Black Arrows are reliable sources to USA Red Arrows are not so reliable sources to USA USA prosperity will hit a wall every-time economy heats up Economic volatility & confrontations will escalate even more. Nigeria Venezuela Wall Street Article Nov 14 th 2008 Without imports US runs out of oil rapidly
  8. 8. FOSSIL GAS GLOBAL ENERGY RESERVE <ul><li>Dominant use of Natural Gas: </li></ul><ul><li>Building Heating </li></ul><ul><li>Electricity Peak Loads </li></ul><ul><li>Industrial Process Heating </li></ul><ul><li>Transportation </li></ul><ul><li>Compared to Coal & Oil, Natural Gas is the cleanest burning fossil fuel </li></ul>Russia controls 25% of proven reserves Iran & Qatar, 30% of proven reserves Energy Security & Prosperity Dependencies
  9. 9. FOSSIL GAS GLOBAL STATUS QUO Bridge Fuel to SEI? Russia Europe High dependence Iran & Qatar US* self sufficient in Natural Gas Reserves?? Myth or Reality? <ul><li>While US may not run out of natural gas in the short term(100 years?) </li></ul><ul><li>Russia has a strangle-hold on Europe gas supply </li></ul><ul><li>… and will increasingly manipulate to control. </li></ul><ul><li>Iran & Qatar will be wooed by rest of the world </li></ul><ul><li>even if they do not agree with their ideologies. </li></ul>
  10. 10. FOSSIL COAL GLOBAL ENERGY RESERVE <ul><li>Dominant use of Coal: </li></ul><ul><li>Power Generation </li></ul><ul><li>Steel Production </li></ul><ul><li>Industrial Process Heating </li></ul><ul><li>Coal is the dirtiest burning fuel </li></ul><ul><li>among the three fossil fuels </li></ul><ul><li>Highest CO 2 , NO x and SO x emissions + toxic particulate emissions especially among older generation plants, </li></ul><ul><li>But has lowest cost of energy. </li></ul>USA, Russia, China & India have good Coal Reserves CO2 emission and pollution issues are key concerns
  11. 11. FOSSIL COAL STATUS QUO GHG FROM COAL BASED POWER PLANTS IN CHINA ARE MAJOR CONECERNS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE US has sufficient coal reserves for 200+ years The issue is cleaner energy 70% of China’s energy comes from Coal, the only fossil fuel China can tap cheaply internally. At the projected rate of consumption, China may run out of coal in less than 50 years. Very soon China will have to import Coal too. China is aggressively setting up its footprint in South Africa and Australia to tap its resources. On a given day in 2008, 25% of pollution in LA comes from China The world’s coal energy reserves are two times more than oil and gas reserves combined. USA needs to lead the world in finding innovative solutions to find clean coal technologies as the owner of world’s largest coal reserves . Japan faces an exponential pollution ISSUES from China compared to USA
  12. 12. A STATUS QUO GLOBAL ENERGY SNAPSHOT Implications of Key Dynamics Shaping Energy & Climate Tsunami Energy Consumption in Quadrillion Btu China will consume more energy than USA by 2030 China exceeded USA in total CO2 emissions by 2008 and will emit double of USA by 2030 GLOBALLY, GHG emissions will double by 2030 From 1990 levels QBtu CAUSE SOURCES OF ENERGY EFFECT
  13. 13. A STATUS QUO GLOBAL ENERGY SNAPSHOT Implications of Key Dynamics Shaping Energy & Climate Tsunami Energy Consumption in Quadrillion Btu China will consume more energy than USA by 2030 ‘ 06 pop. 307M ‘ 06 pop. 1,280M 3 rd in 1990 to 3 rd in 2030 1 st in 1990 to 2 nd in 2030 The Debate: per capita or absolute On per Capita Basis: USA emitted 5 times more CO2 than China in 2006 and will STILL emit twice as much in 2030 UNLESS WE CHANGE THE WAY WE GENERATE ENERGY QBtu CAUSE EFFECT Per Capita Data
  14. 14. The “FAT TAIL” by 2050- 2100 at the current trend rate of greenhouse gas release: There is a 99% probability the Global Temperature will rise by 3 degrees Celsius or 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit There is a 50% probability the Global Temperature will rise by 5.5 degrees Celsius or 10 degrees Fahrenheit The world will see severe environmental impact that may be irrevocable There is a 10% probability the Global Temperature will rise by 10+ degrees Celsius or 18 degrees Fahrenheit High likelyhood of Environmental Calamity impact that will be irrevocable For a more complete presentation please refer to “ Carbon Dioxide: What is Earth’s Point of No Return?” Alexander E. MacDonald, Director, NOAA ESRL See VSNI website: Data& Links & NOAA website for more .
  15. 15. A STATUS QUO GLOBAL ENERGY SNAPSHOT What is the Take Away from the last Few Slides? Climate change is an EFFECT The way we use our energy is the CAUSE. Can we change the way we use our energy to create a vibrant economic growth engine AND cure climate change? Our future generation is depending on us. You treat the cause to change the effect We need a National Comprehensive Vision and Deployment Strategy. We need stretch goals to overcome our severe Economic & Environmental crisis. Stretch goals will take people out of their comfort zone, but has a deeply researched deployable strategy designed to overcome crisis of gigantic proportions…. Competing for the Future: Hamel & Prahalad
  16. 16. A STATUS QUO GLOBAL ENERGY SNAPSHOT What is the Take Away from the last Few Slides? Because of the policies of the past, USA does not have a comprehensive E nergy Vision & Deployment Strategy that realistically tackle the looming E nvironment Disaster, while reviving the E conomy We cannot change the past, but we can certainly control our destiny, even at this late hour. We just need resolve as a nation to take on stretch goals. To start the process we adapted the model from the German Advisory Council for Global Change, who seem to have one of the most aggressive vision for a comprehensive energy initiative to tackle climate change. WE NEED TO RAPIDLY TRANSITION TOWARDS CLEAN SUSTAINABLE ENERGY. WHERE IS USA SEI COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE WORLD?
  17. 17. Oil Wind Hydropower Nuclear Gas Coal Biomass Solar Photovoltaic & Thermal Distributed: Home, Commercial Centralized: Power Plants Solar Thermal Heating Other Renewables Global Energy Usage:The German Comprehensive Vision By the German Advisory Council for Global Change Energy Consumption in Trillions of KWH/Year (equivalent) Germans represent in exajoules Energy from Fossil Fuels Energy from Renewable Fuels Note: Germans do not have any Fossil Fuel Resources $20Trillion $5 Trillion $10 Trillion
  18. 18. Oil Wind Hydropower Nuclear Gas Coal Biomass Solar Photovoltaic & Thermal Distributed: Home, Commercial Centralized: Power Plants Solar Thermal Heating Other Renewables Global Energy Usage:The German Comprehensive Vision Overlaying the EIA trend-line on the GAC model and potential impact of GHG Energy Consumption in Trillions of KWH/Year (equivalent) Energy from Fossil Fuels Energy from Renewable Fuels 1950 CO 2 280 ppm 1850 CO 2 230 ppm? 2006 CO 2 380 ppm 2030 CO 2 500 ppm? 2050 CO 2 800 ppm? Current EIA USA , China & India Fossil Fuel Consumption Trend line
  19. 19. Countries with Leading Renewable Energy Initiatives & 2007 USA Energy Consumption Profile Hydropower: Norway 98% of electric 60% of total energy needs Nuclear: France 80% of electric 39% of total energy needs Wind & Solar: Germany Wind installed: 22.2 GW Solar PV Installed: 3.8GW >20% of Electric Bio fuels: Brazil 40% of Transportation fuel 11% of total energy needs USA is a poor second on all Renewable Energy components when compared to OECD Europe While still being the first by a huge margin for Fossil fuels. Offshore Wind Power: Denmark 30% of electric needs
  20. 20. Petroleum 11,664 B kWh Coal 6,682 B kWh Natural Gas 6,916 B kWh Nuclear Energy 2462 B kWh Renewable Energy 1,993 B kWh Transportation 8,499 B kWh Industrial 6,271 kWh Residential & Commercial 3,106 B kWh Electric Power 11,899 B kWh USA Primary Energy Consumption by Source & Sector for 2007 SOURCE SECTOR CONSUMPTION Adapted from EIA 51% 10% 30% 9% 100% 30% 34% 34% 3% 91% <1% 8% 2% 5% 24% 70% 96% 2% 2% 51% 1% 9% 2% 2% 37% 75% 17% 21% 9% 6% 9% Total= 29,717 B kWh Total= 29,776 B kWh OUTPUT 67% loss 3,970B kWh 40% 21.1% 10.4% 28.5% 8.3% 6.7% 22.5% 23.3% 39.3% ICE 82.4% loss 1,496B kWh 44%
  21. 21. Wind Solar Photovoltaic Solar Thermal Understanding the CSF’s for Power Parity Index for SEI A perspective adapted from Vinod Khosla’s presentation at NREL Forum Oct, 2008 Cost/W Time Coal 2020 6 Cents/KWh 12 Cents/KWh 30 Cents/KWh 2008 Relevance of Scale Relevance Cost Relevance of Technology Adoption Curve Need to Subsidize 2040? PPI = 1 PPI < 1 PPI = 5 We will need radical new innovations to go beyond 15% of Total Global Energy needs from Renewable Energy, and it needs to be sustainable: stand on its own legs and be economically compelling We can get to 15% of Total Global Energy Needs from Renewable Energy, especially Solar and Wind with current technologies by setting stretch goals & speed of deployment. * Need to work together
  22. 22. Renewable Energy Initiatives Powerful Stretch Goals for Renewable Energy Choices Eliminate Fossil Oil Use totally by 2020 Al Gore: Repower America? Shai Agassi Project Better Place RE<C - Eric Schmidt, Google Renewable Energy costs less than Coal
  23. 23. ENERGY LIFECYCLE BY SOURCE & GLOBAL CORE COMPETENCIES OVERVIEW we will use solar PV as an example, scale 1 (Lowest) -10 (Highest) Innovation Fundamental R&D Hype Cycle Growth Commercialization & Market Creation Application R&D DFMS Maturity Life extension Incremental R&D Decline cash cow End of Life Oil Wind Solar Algae Gas Breakeven line without subsidies Time Mkt Cap <ul><li>NREL Involvement: </li></ul><ul><li>Basic Research </li></ul><ul><li>Applied Research </li></ul><ul><li>Development </li></ul><ul><li>Demonstration </li></ul><ul><li>Testing & Validation </li></ul><ul><li>Commercialization </li></ul>Subsidy & funding $ needed USA has much larger Leadership gaps in other Renewable areas: eg: Batteries & Plug-in cars USA 2008 2012? Innovation fundamental R&D 9 10 Application R&D 6 9 Manufacturing 3 7 Market Size 3 10 Install Services & jobs 3 8 Industry Growth 4 9 Non OECD Asia 2008 2012 Innovation fundamental R&D 2 5 Application R&D 5 6 Manufacturing 9 8 Market Size 1 6 Install Services & jobs 1 5 Industry Growth 7 7 OECD Europe 2008 2012 Innovation fundamental R&D 7 7 Application R&D 8 7 Manufacturing 7 5 Market Size 10 8 Install Services & jobs 8 8 Industry Growth 9 6
  24. 24. Renewable Energy Initiatives Powerful Stretch Goals & Structured Approach to Economically Viable Sustainable Renewable Energy Choices
  25. 25. Colorado Renewable Energy Initiatives Where are we? A State Level Perspective <ul><li>Significant increase in Renewable Energy Initiative since 2007 in all 3 states. </li></ul><ul><li>Colorado has since installed: </li></ul><ul><li>10 MW residential & commercial solar panels </li></ul><ul><li>Commissioned 8.2 MW utility scale solar plant in Alamosa. 2 nd largest in US. </li></ul><ul><li>RFP to install 600MW solar plant, which may become the largest install in the world? </li></ul><ul><li>Significant increase in Wind turbine installs </li></ul><ul><li>NREL and Xcel working on several wind, solar, hydrogen fuel cell, hybrid designs… </li></ul><ul><li>Xcel Smart Grid pilot in Boulder… </li></ul><ul><li>Conoco Philips Renewable Center, Louisville </li></ul><ul><li>NREL going through major expansion… </li></ul>
  26. 26. <ul><ul><li>PART II: Enabling SEI Global Leadership for USA </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>inv VEST Vision, Purpose & Strategy Overview </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Understanding the Current State & Desired Future State </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Matrixed Tools we plan to use </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>inv VEST specific initiatives </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Inter actions in SEI Community & SEI Marketplace </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Should we introduce SEI into our education system? </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Ideas to get the Education community involved in invVEST SEI </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Q&A & Feedback, Wrap up. </li></ul></ul>Probir Ghosh, CEO* & President inv VEST team * CEO = Chief Enabling Officer
  27. 27. Twenty years from now instead of fighting over a dwindling resource like fossil based oil to generate our energy that increases our pollution levels to the point of no return for our planet, we generate more and more clean, sustainable energy because it actually helps clean up the environment while fueling our economic growth. inv VEST plans to transform this imagination into reality. Imagine a paradigm shift: We believe the 30 million student community in USA in high schools, colleges and universities can be GAME CHANGERS in the way we currently generate and use our energy and help in the rapid transition to clean sustainable energy initiatives. Here is How we Plan to do it:
  28. 28. OUR VISION: Enabling Massive Scale Sustainable Energy Initiatives will generate the next vibrant economy while protecting our planet for future generations to enjoy. Together, We can. <ul><li>inv VEST Sole Purpose : to Enable Global Sustainable Energy Initiatives Leadership (SEI) for USA through Massive Scaling. We will lead by example. </li></ul><ul><li>The initiative needs significant investment of our mindshare, resources & time hence the name inv VEST. </li></ul><ul><li>We are investing in our future through a massive network of collaborative virtual teams, involving student communities and citizens as well as thought leaders and influencers, hence the name invVEST. </li></ul><ul><li>Massive Scaling supported by long term structured policies need to drive down prices of SEI below fossil fuel prices it replaces to create and “AND” not an “OR” situation. </li></ul><ul><li>Our goal is to create a Vibrant economy AND </li></ul><ul><li>A Clean Planet for our Future Generation. </li></ul>
  29. 29. GLOBAL ENERGY ECONOMY REACHES TEN TRILLION US$ 2030. 60% NEEDS TO BE SEI CREATES BILLION+ JOBS TACKLE CLIMATE CHANGE USA NEEDS TO BE THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SEI TO CREATE A VIBRANT ECONOMY Evaluate Current State Vs. Desired State Strategic Tools COLORADO CAN BE THE NEW ENERGY ECONOMY HUB LEAD BY EXAMPLE USA<CO STATE< County <Community level implementations WHAT’S IN IT FOR US? inv VEST SEI COMMUNITY SEI Market Place UNDERSTANDING THE FRAMEWORK FOR THE inv VEST VISION & PURPOSE <ul><li>We use energy in almost anything we do </li></ul><ul><li>Our Energy source & how we use energy </li></ul><ul><li>will drive or sink the new economy </li></ul>
  30. 30. Top Down Initiative SEI Marketplace Idea Exchange & Implementation Center Generate, debate, deploy Focused initiatives Among thought-leaders & Influencers AMBASSADORS THOUGHT LEADERS SUPPORTERS BOA Bottom-up Initiative Massive Ground Swell Support From Student & Citizens Communities SEI COMMUNITY PAGE What’s Hot, What’s Cool Challenge BOD GLOBAL NATIONAL inv VEST Business Model A Nonprofit Organization Launch 5/26/09 YE 2009 YE 2010 YE 2015 BOA 6 - 10 12 - .20 30 -50 100 Ambassadors 8 - 12 20 - 40 60 - 100 200 Thought Leaders 30 -50 100 - 300 400+ 1,000 Supporters 1,000 10,000 plus 100,000 plus 1 M+ Economic Impact & Funding $1- $3M $1M $50 - $100M $2M+ $200B Plus $20M
  31. 31. <ul><li>The inv VEST team has identified three SEIs for massive scaling: </li></ul><ul><li>1. Break-Through Solar Energy Initiative: </li></ul><ul><li>5 GW installed in 2010 with structured but flexible policy & legislation for 12 years in place </li></ul><ul><li>PPI of <1 by 2015 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>20% of total US energy consumption by 2030 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ramp-up complementary SEI like Wind, Geo Thermal, Hydro, Clean Coal, Energy Storage & Transmission & related smart grid Infrastructure. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ramp up electric energy usage to keep pace with Breakthrough SEI </li></ul></ul>2. Energy Efficiency and Conservation Initiative: USA consumes 54% more energy than a comparable OECD country. Reduce energy consumption per capita incrementally by 1% a year for 12 years for a total 12% reduction by 2020. 3 . Garner massive support from the students and citizens communities.   Involve Students, Faculty & Admin of Schools, Colleges and Universities in a grassroots movement to change our behavior and knowledge on how we use energy by introducing relevant curriculum and activities around SEI. The mass movement will also be extended to include all citizens communities for their deep involvement. Other well defined ideas that hold the promise of meeting SEI definition will be given serious consideration.
  32. 32. The inv VEST Virtual Market Place Matrix for Sustainable Energy Initiatives Use this Matrix to Map & identify the right ambassadors and thought-leaders Functional Clusters Energy Clusters Visit to get to SEI market place, Strategy Papers & useful resources.
  33. 33. Vertical Clusters SEI Traits 0-10 BASE MAPPING TOOL: SEI Selection Criteria. 6 Traits Defined for Sustainable Energy (SE). The index of 0 means worst, 10 means best. If the energy source does not have the potential satisfy these six criteria It may not qualify for SEI, but it may still be a renewable energy source.
  34. 34. The Current State USA Energy Usage Projections USA will continue to rely heavily on fossil fuels
  35. 35. Oil Wind Hydropower Nuclear Gas Coal Biomass Solar Photovoltaic & Thermal Distributed: Home, Commercial Centralized: Power Plants Solar Thermal Heating Other Renewables Three Strategies We Plan To Use for USA focused inv VEST initiatives Adapting USA Centric Vision from German Advisory Council for Global Change Energy Consumption in Trillions of KWH/Year Dynamic 1: Fossil Fuel USE Shift Dynamic 2: Energy Efficiency & Conservation Reduce Total Global Energy Use Dynamic 3: Technology Enablers for faster economic parity to fossil fuels Time
  36. 36. Speicific Initatives for inv VEST SEI Initiative 3 Students & Citizens Community Groundswell in invVEST initiatives Will strongly influence Initiative 1 Breakthrough Solar Initiative Rooftop solar Initiative 2
  37. 37. The Outcome of successful inv VEST SEI Energy Usage shifts to SEI majority (65%)
  38. 38. Total energy needed globally is 100,000 times less than the amount of solar energy falling on earth. Solar Energy generates less than 0.05% of total global energy. If solar energy generates 25% of global energy, it needs to scale 10,000 times, creating a $3 Trillion Solar Energy Market. Focus on slicing the pie or make the pie exponentially bigger through massive scaling? Total energy need of the world Total energy from Sun falling on earth surface Total energy need of the world Current Solar Energy generated as % of total energy needs Initiative I: Solar Energy Opportunity Understanding the Exponential Size of the Pie
  39. 39. <ul><li>USA & Germany: A Perspective: </li></ul><ul><li>Land Area: USA has 26 times more land mass & 1,000 times free/arid land space. </li></ul><ul><li>Sun Radiance: SW corner of USA (5 times larger than Germany) has 40 - 60% more sun radiance. </li></ul><ul><li>USA GDP is 4 time more than Germany </li></ul><ul><li>Yet, USA installed a mere 340MW of Solar PV compared to Germany’s 1,800MW in 2008. USA should have deployed 8,000MW to be on par </li></ul><ul><li>What is wrong with this picture? </li></ul>1 KW panel Produces 1530 kWh/yr 40 -70% more Germany Solar Energy I KW panel Produces 947kWh/yr Initiative I: Break Through Solar Initiative
  40. 40. Initiative I: Break Through Solar Initiative invVEST Breakthrough Solar Initiative 350GW 85GW Panel Prices BOS (Balance of Systems) Prices <ul><li>Massive Scaling can generate by 2030: </li></ul><ul><li>A $ 2 Trillion Solar Energy Industry </li></ul><ul><li>Aggressively bring down SEI prices </li></ul><ul><li>Create 3 Million+ Jobs </li></ul><ul><li>Colorado can be one of the Hubs </li></ul><ul><li>Breakthrough Solar initiative will save Trillions of $ for USA over the next 50 years in energy prices & environment cleanup cost </li></ul>Exponential Game Changing Growth If we can get the Public & Private Sector to work collaboratively on reducing the price of Solar Energy. The Weak Link Fundamental Technology in place. Cd Te can be The low price game.
  41. 41. Initiative I: Why Break Through Solar Initiative . Vital Statistics Country Germany Country USA Sate Colorado County Boulder Population 80M 307M 5.1M 400K GDP $3.5 T $14.5 T $241B $22B Solar Installed in 2008 1,800MW 340 MW 30MW 1MW? Equalized to USA GDP To match Germany 7,400 MW 123 MW 11 MW Breakthrough Solar For 2010 6,000 MW 120 MW ??? Breakthrough Solar For 2020 137 GW 18GW Investment next 7 yrs Return by 2030 $240B 1,200B Solar Revenue 2030 $1,400B $110B Savings from Oil -$20/B$ $3,000B Jobs 2030 3.8M 700,000
  42. 42. Colorado based Renewable Energy Initiatives Boulder Denver Golden Windsor Fort Collins School of Mines CU CSU Xcel NREL abound Solar Vestas Ascent Solar Conoco Philips 2010? UCD DU RMI Governor's Aggressive Energy Initiative NREL & Governor’s Aggressive Renewable Energy Initiative are the biggest reasons for spawning the industry… We now need to take it to the next level I-25 I-70 Primestar Solar More than 250 SEI based entities in Colorado and growing… Growing Opportunities for SEI savvy workforce & Management Visit Look for resources Under media center tab.
  43. 43. Initiative II: Energy Efficiency & Conservation * Guesswork, need to have real data Country USA State Colorado County Boulder* Community Superior* Population 307M 5.1M 400K 12,000 GDP $14.5 T $241B $22B $780M Energy Usage 29.5T kWh 490B kWh 38B kWh 1.1B kWh 1% Energy Saved in next 12 months 295B kWh 4.9B kWh 0.38B kWh 11 M kWh Approximate $ Value Energy saved $30B $500M $40M $1.2M Investment Required With avg. 3 years ROI $90B $1.5B $120M $3.6M Energy Saved in 2020 $360B $6B $480M $14.4M Jobs Created $ Value $120B $2B $160M $4.8M Jobs 2.4M 40,000 3,200 96
  44. 44. invVEST Education Forum Integrating Communities….. Creating a Sustainable Energy Future <ul><li>University Sponsorship </li></ul><ul><li>Sustainability Student Council Leads </li></ul><ul><li>Community Educational Forums </li></ul><ul><li>University Curriculum Refinement </li></ul><ul><li>Lead Multi-Community Initiatives </li></ul><ul><li>Establish Citizenship Community Projects </li></ul><ul><li>Technology Co-Development </li></ul><ul><li>Energy Sustainability Competitions </li></ul><ul><li>Education Leadership Development for K12 </li></ul><ul><li>Education Forums </li></ul><ul><li>Initiative Sponsorships </li></ul><ul><li>Community Grants </li></ul><ul><li>Award Recognition Sponsorships </li></ul><ul><li>Community Grants </li></ul><ul><li>Curriculum Refinement & Internships </li></ul><ul><li>Community Education Forums </li></ul><ul><li>Technology Co-Development </li></ul><ul><li>Award Recognition Sponsorships </li></ul><ul><li>Community Education Forums </li></ul><ul><li>Multi-Community Initiatives </li></ul><ul><li>Multi-Community Leadership </li></ul><ul><li>Resource Management </li></ul><ul><li>Curriculum Recommendations </li></ul><ul><li>Scholarships </li></ul><ul><li>Award Recognition Sponsorships </li></ul>
  45. 45. Initiative III: Mass Student Community Involvement <ul><ul><li>Navigating the inv VEST interactive website </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Interactions in SEI Community & SEI Marketplace </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Should we introduce SEI into our education system? </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Ideas to get the Education community involved in invVEST SEI </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Q&A & Feedback, Wrap up. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> Visit: www. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> Probir Ghosh: </li></ul></ul>
  46. 46. “ Imagine a Handoff Clean Sustainable Energy Fueling our future economy, curing our environment… Thank You
  47. 47. Energy Initiatives <ul><li>Back up slides </li></ul>
  48. 48. Renewable Energy Initiatives What will Stretch Goals look like? A Global Perspective <ul><li>The 20:20 Vision: What will it take for US to generate 20% of total energy or 21 Quadrillion Btu in 2020 from Non fossil based sources? CSF: Regain Leadership </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Leverage & deploy every single source of renewable energy available </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fifteen Trillion $ global investment over the next 12 - 20 years? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>The investment pales when you consider the world has to invest about 30 Trillion dollars in the next 20 years just to keep the fossil based oil production at the current levels (IEA: Wall Street report Nov 14 th 2008). </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Emergence of Energy Economy driving jobs, innovation, rapid execution </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Six Million New Energy Jobs by 2012, Twenty Million by 2020 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The current economic crisis can be the biggest opportunity if a significant >30% of Govt. Funds are strongly linked to renewable energy initiative. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>If we do not invest now we may lose the window of opportunity </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The 50:50 VISION: What will it take for US to generate 50% of total energy or 60 QBtu in 2050? Rest of the World (RoW) to generate 40% of total energy or 240 QBtu in 2050? Maintain Leadership </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Key: Revolutionary innovations in energy storage & efficiencies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How can we make Colorado a much more significant player? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Lead by Example </li></ul>
  49. 49. <ul><li>Taking on Global Leadership in New Energy Initiatives </li></ul><ul><li>Some Stretch Goals & Radical Thinking for Renewable Energy (RE): </li></ul><ul><li>Extreme Makeover: Energy Efficiency & Conservation Programs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Reduce Energy consumption per capita: 12% by 2012, create 1,000,000 plus jobs while doing so, identify quick hit programs with attractive ROI that can be deployed by 2009 -2010 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Stretch Goals: USA generates 20% of energy needs from Wind and Solar by 2020? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Wind to generate 12% & solar to generate 8% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Start with signing up for 80% of Solar Panel Global Supply Demand Gap in 2009 (6 GW) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Suppliers can get profits with 85% capacity utilization with prices as low as $5/W for rooftops </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>80% or 4.8 GW goes on roof tops in 2009, creating 70,000 plus incremental jobs in 2009 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Federal & States take up 3 GW, 1.8 GW to Residential and commercial </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>1.2 GW contracts for centralized, mainly from Thin Film, at $4.00/W </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>By 2015, the model flips: 80 % to Centralized, price target $1.75/W, creating 1.5M jobs </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Like Germany, suppliers locate plants close to source, and Colorado, Arizona are ideal </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Radical: As we generate more RE, ship coal to China & sell clean coal technologies </li></ul>
  50. 50. Renewable Energy Initiatives What do we do now? <ul><li>Creating a Comprehensive Vision and Strategy for using every single source of renewable energy best suitable for USA. </li></ul><ul><li>Deeper dive to deploy each initiative and setting stretch goals for Colorado & USA to take our Renewable Energy Initiatives to the next level and become a globally recognized leader. </li></ul><ul><li>Colorado & USA already has many initiatives going </li></ul><ul><li>How can we make Colorado & USA a much more significant player? </li></ul>NEXT STEPS…
  51. 51. OUR VISION: Enabling Massive Scale Sustainable Energy Initiatives will generate the next vibrant economy while protecting our planet for future generations to enjoy. Together , we can.
  52. 52. Five Framework Questions for Panelists <ul><li>Size and current focus and what are your near term goals and long term vision? </li></ul><ul><li>Which technology holds the most promise & when will it break even and when to expect large scale production for the general consumer, what can consumers expect near term? </li></ul><ul><li>What are the key challenges, resource constraints, sustainability issues & the lifecycle carbon footprint for the 2 most promising technologies? </li></ul><ul><li>Where does USA stand in terms of innovation, market creation, manufacturing in terms of leadership? What needs to be done? </li></ul><ul><li>How can we make Colorado an even more prominent and relevant player in your area? What will be your priorities & stretch goals? </li></ul>
  53. 53. VSNI Renewable Energy Initiatives Where are we? A Global Perspective <ul><li>Norway provides 98% of electricity through hydro electric power </li></ul><ul><li>Denmakr provides 30% of electricity through Wind Turbines mostly placed offshore. </li></ul><ul><li>France provides 75% of electricity through Nuclear Power </li></ul><ul><li>Germany, a sun-poor country, has the largest solar panel installations </li></ul><ul><li>Germany also has the largest wind farms with a 22,247MW installed capacity </li></ul><ul><li>Brazil generates 25% of its liquid fuel from sugarcane, production cost $25 per barrel </li></ul><ul><li>In North America, Canada provides 55% of electricity through hydro electric power </li></ul><ul><li>In the US, Washington State provides 20% of electricity through hydro electric power </li></ul><ul><li>In the US, Texas has the largest wind farms installed & doubling their capacity by 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>OPEC and Russia control most of the known oil resources in the world </li></ul><ul><li>Russia has 27% of known natural gas in the world. Iran & Qatar controls 29%. </li></ul><ul><li>US has the largest reserve of Coal with 28%, providing a 200+ year supply. </li></ul><ul><li>With fossil Oil based energy resources running out in 40 -100 years, non fossil based renewable energy needs to be established for mankind to survive. The environment issue compounds the need. </li></ul><ul><li>Energy dependence & security volatilities & crisis will escalate exponentially </li></ul>
  54. 54. VSNI Renewable Energy Initiatives Where are we? A Global Perspective In 2005, Colorado consumed 1.43Quadrillion Btu/year or 1.4% of total US consumption China becomes the largest consumer of energy by 2020 Total CO 2 eq. emission Exceeded US in 2008. China will run out of coal & oil in less than 30 years
  55. 55. VSNI Renewable Energy Initiatives Where are we? A Global Perspective World’s highest %, using internal resources World’s highest %, using imported resources Significant exporter or abundant resource 4,022 6,704
  56. 56. Imagine a Dinner Table Conversation in 2030… <ul><ul><li>Imagine sitting down for dinner with your teenage children or grandchildren 20 years down the road and having to explain why they cannot do any of the things that was common 20 years ago? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Simple things like, not driving to their friends place across town for a party because gasoline is rationed … </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Having to wear heavy thermals indoors in winter because natural gas is too costly to heat the house… </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sweating it out in summer because air conditioners are banned as there are electricity blackouts …. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Why a lot of their older friends are being sent off to fight wars over Mid-east and other far off places…. or worse why do they have to go to so many of their friends funerals… </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Why do they have to use oxygen masks every now and then. Why more and more of their friends seem to be developing acute breathing problems…. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Why there are all too frequent hurricanes & tornadoes, tidal floods and ….. Global dimming </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What ever happened to their country where everyone dared to dream to be whatever they wanted to be in the most vibrant country in the world…. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>All indications* point towards this scenario unless we come together to set & meet much more aggressive stretch goals to resolve this on coming Economic & Environment Tsunami.. NOW. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>* While we can debate about concrete proof, how much warning did we have for the Asian Tsunami that caused 250,000+ deaths, Katrina, or the current Global Financial Crisis or 9-11? There is significantly more evidence and body of work by scientists, the world over, that we are heading towards an environmental calamity. The future of our very next generation is at stake. </li></ul></ul>
  57. 57. Renewable Energy Initiatives Strategic Approach to Economically Sustainable Renewable Energy Choices If solar performance & efficiencies track Moore’s Law for computing price performance, Solar installed cost and $/KWH will drop much more dramatically than this scenario. Will need exponential improvements in networked storage, smart grid technologies. Radical /Revolutionary Technology needed
  58. 58. Renewable Energy Initiatives Strategic Approach to Economically Sustainable Renewable Energy Choices Solar CSF: Replicating Moore's Law for Cost, Exponential improvement in storage & smart grid Algae CSF: GMO for exponential increase in yield & extraction efficiencies, economies of scale for bioreactors
  59. 59. GLOBAL ELECTRICITY USAGE USA, OECD Europe & China consumed 54% of global electricity produced Electricity constitutes 40% of Global Energy Consumption A Strong Case for Energy Efficiency & Conservation Programs USA consumes 53% more Electricity than OECD Europe Which has 25% more population and 15% more GDP Can we have quick wins with Energy Efficiency & Conservation? We can quickly ramp up 1,000,000 plus jobs, with attractive ROI