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Stories to Watch 2017

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Global trends and emerging issues to watch related to climate, energy, economic development, sustainable diets, and transport. Learn more at http://wri.org/stw17

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Stories to Watch 2017

  1. 1. Photo: Michael Fleshman/Flickr FEATURING Andrew Steer President & CEO January 11, 2017
  2. 2. Strange Times Photo: Flickr/Ted Eytan
  3. 3. Greatest Political Uncertainty Since 1989 Photo: Wikimedia Commons
  4. 4. A Globalization Backlash Photo: Ben White/ CAFOD, October 2015
  5. 5. People Feeling Left Out of Economic Opportunity Photo: Flickr/Joseph
  6. 6. Devaluation of Facts 49% of Republicans believe #PizzaGate is real Photo: Wikimedia Commons
  7. 7. A NEW ADMINISTRATION: How Far Will Trump Go? STORY 1 Photo: Flickr/Matt Johnson
  8. 8. WHERE DOES HE STAND? Photo: Flickr/Jennifer Woodard Maderazo SEPTEMBER 2015: “I don’t believe in climate change.” DECEMBER 2009: “We support your effort to ensure meaningful and effective measures to control climate change.” —Letter to Pres. Obama, signed by Donald Trump NOVEMBER 2016: “I have an open mind to it.”
  9. 9. TRUMP’S FOSSIL FUEL CABINET Photo: Flickr/Gage Skidmore, William Muno EPA: Scott Pruitt DOE: Rick Perry STATE: Rex Tillerson DOI: Ryan Zinke
  10. 10. AMERICANS WANT CLIMATE ACTION 66% of registered voters say U.S. should reduce GHG emissions Photo: Flickr/Nick v 55% of Trump voters support climate policies
  11. 11. WHAT TO WATCH: Photo: Flickr/Paul A.Fagan • Ozone and Methane Emissions Standards • Renewable Fuel Standard Program • Energy Efficiency Standards • Waters of the United States Rule Environmental Protection Under Attack?
  12. 12. WHAT TO WATCH: Undoing the Clean Power Plan? Photo: Flickr/ Ted Eytan DC Circuit Ruling Early 2017 Supreme Court? Defund? Rescind and Replace?
  13. 13. WHAT TO WATCH: Photo: Flickr/U.S. Army Corps of Engineers American Energy & Infrastructure Act, first 200 days? Infrastructure: Gray or Green?
  14. 14. WHAT TO WATCH: Will He Gut U.S. Climate Policies? Source: “Delivering on the U.S. Climate Commitment: A 10-Point Plan Toward a Low-Carbon Future.”
  15. 15. WHAT TO WATCH: Will He Gut U.S. Climate Policies? Source: “Delivering on the U.S. Climate Commitment: A 10-Point Plan Toward a Low-Carbon Future.”
  16. 16. WHAT TO WATCH: …and Will He Abandon the Paris Agreement? Photo: COP Paris • Syria • Nicaragua • Uzbekistan
  17. 17. WHAT TO WATCH: How Will Congress Respond? Photo: Flickr/Thomas Hawk 52REPUBLICANS 46+2DEMOCRATS + INDEPENDENTS
  18. 18. WHAT TO WATCH: Will More States and Cities Step Up? Photo: Flickr/Gage Skidmore 15 States & 51 Cities Have Called for Climate Action
  19. 19. WHAT TO WATCH: Taking It to the Streets? Photo: Flickr/Stephen Melkisethian
  20. 20. WHAT TO WATCH: Will Environmentalists Prevail in the Courts? Photo: Flickr/wp paarz 27-11 in Bush Era
  21. 21. WHAT TO WATCH: Crossing the Line? Gutting the OCE is “the dumbest fricking thing I’ve ever heard ....” —Sen. Lindsey Graham, Fox News, Jan. 3, 2017
  22. 22. How Far Will Trump Go? STORY 1 Photo: Flickr/Matt Johnson
  23. 23. GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS: A Fossil Fuel Renaissance or Renewable Energy Surge? STORY 2 Photo: USFWS/Joshua Winchell
  24. 24. RESURGENCE OF COAL? Photo: Flickr/Wojtek Mszyca
  25. 25. Source: US EIA U.S. COAL INDUSTRY IS DECLINING
  26. 26. WIND & SOLAR POWER ARE NOW COST-COMPETITIVE Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
  27. 27. • Wind turbine technician is fastest growing U.S. job • 769,000 U.S. jobs in renewable energy Photo: Dennis Schroeder/DOE CLEAN ENERGY: JOB CREATOR
  28. 28. • 71 Fortune 100 companies have renewable goals • 22 Fortune 500 companies are committed to 100% renewables Photo: Flickr/Walmart U.S. COMPANIES DEMAND MORE RENEWABLE ENERGY
  29. 29. U.S. UTILITIES AREN’T TURNING BACK • 450 Mw of new solar, equivalent to taking 118,000 vehicles off the road each year • 500 Mw in the works Source: http://buyersprinciples.org/corporate-re-strategy-map/
  30. 30. $266 Billion Investment in renewable energy capacity was double coal & gas last year Photo: Google Earth AND AT THE GLOBAL LEVEL...
  31. 31. 2015: • South Africa increased 329% ($4.5 billion) • Chile increased 151% ($3.4 billion) • India increased 22% ($10.2 billion) Photo: Flickr/Brookhaven National Lab EMERGING MARKETS LEADING IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENTS
  32. 32. CHINA: #1 IN RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT Source: IEA
  33. 33. 1/3 of new capacity planned is coal 80% of which is in a few rapidly developing Asian economies Photo: Flickr/blake.thornberry BUT, COAL REMAINS IN THE GLOBAL PIPELINE
  34. 34. WHAT TO WATCH: Photo: Flickr/Stuart Rankin 4:1 failure-to-completion rate of planned coal plants in Europe, South Asia, Latin America and Africa Will Coal Plants Thrive or Fail?
  35. 35. WHAT TO WATCH: Source: US EIA Will U.S. Coal Exports Rebound?
  36. 36. WHAT TO WATCH: Photo: Flickr/hsbfrank • Tax credits • R&D funding Will U.S. Support for Renewables Remain?
  37. 37. WHAT TO WATCH: Photo: Flickr/Julian Schüngel Will Financial Capital Shift Toward Clean Energy? July 2017 G20 Summit
  38. 38. A Fossil Fuel Renaissance or Renewable Energy Surge? STORY 2 Photo: USFWS/Joshua Winchell
  39. 39. INTERNATIONAL ACTION: Will Momentum on Climate Continue? STORY 3 Photo: Falcon Photography/Flickr
  40. 40. Source: CAIT/WRI 123 countries PARIS AGREEMENT RAPIDLY ENTERS INTO FORCE 19 countries joined since U.S. election
  41. 41. ECONOMIC GROWTH & EMISSIONS ARE DECOUPLING Source: WRI 30 countries
  42. 42. LAUNCH OF NDC PARTNERSHIP 8 institutions 38 countries
  43. 43. TURNING COMMITMENTS INTO ACTION Source: http://www.wri.org/publication/achieving-mexicos-goals
  44. 44. NOVEMBER 2016: INDIA OPENS WORLD’S LARGEST SOLAR PLANT Photo: Wikimedia Commons/Vinaykumar8687 648 Megawatts Enough to power 150,000 homes
  45. 45. $360 billion investment in renewables by 2020 JANUARY 2017: CHINA ANNOUNCES RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT Photo: Flickr/Martijn van Gameren 13 million jobs by 2020
  46. 46. WHAT TO WATCH: Will We See Implementation Accelerate? 21 Countries have committed to restore 63 million hectares of degraded land by 2030 Source: AFR100
  47. 47. WHAT TO WATCH: Will India Hit Its Solar Targets? Sources: Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF); The Economic Times.
  48. 48. WHAT TO WATCH: Will China’s National Carbon Market Take Off? 13% of global GHG emissions covered by carbon pricing
  49. 49. WHAT TO WATCH: Will China’s National Carbon Market Take Off? 25% of global GHG emissions covered by carbon pricing
  50. 50. WHAT TO WATCH: More Climate Refugees? Photo: Flickr/UN Photo/Tobin Jones 26.4 million people displaced by disasters per year since 2008 Equivalent to one person per second
  51. 51. WHAT TO WATCH: Will UN SG Prioritize Climate? Photo: Flickr/ OEA-OAS
  52. 52. WHAT TO WATCH: Who Will Step Up? Photo: Flickr/Kevin Gill
  53. 53. WHAT TO WATCH: European Elections? Photo: Flickr/Indigo Skies Photography Netherlands: March 15 (National Election) France: April 23 (Presidential) Germany: August-October (Federal Election) Italy: New Prime Minister must be confirmed
  54. 54. Will Momentum on Climate Continue? STORY 3 Photo: Falcon Photography/Flickr
  55. 55. TOMORROW’S MARKETS: Will Businesses & Investors Accelerate Momentum Toward Sustainability? STORY 4 Photo: Wikimedia Commons
  56. 56. CORPORATE COMMITMENTS ARE GROWING 579 Deforestation- free supply chains 84 100% Renewable Energy 205 Science- based Targets
  57. 57. SOME COMPANIES ARE STARTING TO TRANSFORM THEIR BUSINESS MODELS From coal mining to life-sciences company Recognizes “peak stuff” & finite resources Future is not just selling more cars
  58. 58. MAJOR INSTITUTIONAL ASSET OWNERS ARE HUNGRY FOR SUSTAINABLE CAPITAL Multiple studies confirm ESG factors can lead to higher returns and are “neutral” Photo: Public Domain
  59. 59. Recommendations of Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures Photo: Flickr/Bank of England PRESSURE ON MARKETS IS BEGINNING
  60. 60. WHAT TO WATCH: Will Sustainable Investments Keep Up the Pace? Source: GSIA 2015 61% increase in professionally managed assets held in ESG screened investments
  61. 61. WHAT TO WATCH: Will 100 More Companies Sign Up to Science-based Targets? Will they go further to include land and water?
  62. 62. WHAT TO WATCH: Will Demand Be Transmitted to Corporate Board Rooms?
  63. 63. WHAT TO WATCH: Will Demand Be Transmitted to Corporate Board Rooms?
  64. 64. WHAT TO WATCH: Will Demand Be Transmitted to Corporate Board Rooms?
  65. 65. WHAT TO WATCH: Davos 2017: Business Commission on Sustainable Development Photo: Flickr/David McIntyre/Crossroads Foundation Ltd. How will businesses and investors respond?
  66. 66. Will Businesses & Investors Accelerate Momentum Toward Sustainability? STORY 4 Photo: Wikimedia Commons
  67. 67. STORY 5 Photo: Flickr/Stacy Spensley SUSTAINABLE FOOD: The Ascent of Plant-Based Protein?
  68. 68. FOOD DEMAND IS RISING Sources: FAOSTAT (data 1980-2013), Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012) with WRI adjustments (projections 2014-2050).
  69. 69. MEAT DEMAND GROWS AS INCOME GROWS Sources: FAOSTAT (data 1980-2013), Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012) with WRI adjustments (projections 2014-2050).
  70. 70. • Beef uses 1/3 of water for all agricultural production • “Cattle Nation” = 3rd largest GHG emitter after China and U.S. Photo: Flickr/American Committee for KEEP, Inc. THE BIGGEST BEEF IS WITH BEEF
  71. 71. BEEF PRODUCTION: • ~70% of deforestation in South America • #1 driver of tropical deforestation globally Photo: Flickr/CIFOR A QUARTER OF THE EARTH IS PASTURELAND
  72. 72. • 2.5 acres of land for the average American diet • One-half for beef Photo: Pexels/Mail Maeder BEEF PRODUCTION AND LAND USE
  73. 73. After 1 year of global dietary guidelines: • 5+ million lives could be saved • $700+ billion in healthcare costs avoided Photo: Flickr/Many Goldberg LESS RED MEAT IS BETTER FOR PEOPLE…
  74. 74. …AND BETTER FOR THE PLANET If highest consumers cut beef consumption in half: It would free up ~300 million hectares of land (the size of India) Photo: Flickr/Bureau of Land Management
  75. 75. WE GET NEARLY ENOUGH PROTEIN FROM PLANTS Source: WRI/Shifting Diets Gramofproteinconsumptionpercapita,perday,2009
  76. 76. AMERICANS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM BEEF Source: http://blogs.wsj.com/numbers/how-much-meat-do-americans-eat-then-and-now-1792/
  77. 77. • One quarter of Americans report eating less meat • One in ten millennials is a vegetarian or vegan Photo: Flickr/USDA INTEREST IN PLANT PROTEIN IS GROWING…
  78. 78. • Tyson Foods launched $150 million venture capital fund to expand meat alternatives • Better Buying Lab companies serve 25 billion meals per year Photo: Flickr/Ronald Sarayudej …AND BUSINESSES ARE RESPONDING
  79. 79. • China’s dietary guidelines call to reduce meat consumption by 50% • Denmark proposed first-ever tax on red meat Photo: Flickr/tosa muu GOVERNMENTS ARE STARTING TO TAKE ACTION
  80. 80. WHAT TO WATCH: Will Health and Sustainability Agendas Align? Photo: Loic Venance Via Getty Images JUNE 2017: EAT-Lancet Commission recommendations on diet, health & sustainability
  81. 81. WHAT TO WATCH: Photo: Flickr/Scrubhiker Will Pressure on Beef Production Grow? • Group of investors representing $1.25 trillion pushing meat industry to diversify • Will more beef companies make deforestation commitments?
  82. 82. WHAT TO WATCH: Will Momentum for Meat Alternatives Build? • Beyond Meat products in more than 11,000 stores • Top restaurants & chefs serving Impossible Burgers Photo: Flickr/ Michael Saechang
  83. 83. The Ascent of Plant-Based Protein? STORY 5 Photo: Flickr/Stacy Spensley
  84. 84. STORY 6 Photo: Flickr/thisisbossi AUTONOMOUS, SHARED, ELECTRIC: Will Mobility Trends Help People & the Planet?
  85. 85. UNACCEPTABLE COSTS: CONGESTION… Photo: Flickr/Neil Rickards Workers lose 8 days of productivity per year sitting in traffic
  86. 86. POLLUTION… Photo: Flickr/AIRS TRANSPORT SECTOR: • 14% of global emissions globally • #1 source of emissions in U.S., surpassing energy
  87. 87. …AND LIVES Photo: Flickr/AIRS • 1.25 million road deaths per year • 90% due to human error
  88. 88. MOBILITY FACES MAJOR DISRUPTION Photo: Flickr/AIRS • Ridesharing • Electrification • Automation
  89. 89. RIDESHARING ON THE RISE Photo: Flickr/ Tauno Tõhk / 陶诺 UBER: • 1 million rides/day • $62.5 billion valuation DIDI: • 20 million rides/day • $28 billion valuation
  90. 90. CAR OWNERSHIP ON THE WAY OUT? Photo: Flickr/Spiros Vathis “By 2025, owning a car will go the way of the DVD.” —Lyft co-founder John Zimmer
  91. 91. ELECTRIC VEHICLES POISED FOR TAKEOFF Photo: Flickr/ Håkan Dahlström • 1 million electric vehicles on the road globally • 30,000 U.S. charging outlets • Battery tech advancing
  92. 92. Photo: Flickr/AIRS AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES LEAP FORWARD
  93. 93. Photo: Flickr/Steve Jurvetson SELF-DRIVING RIGS ON THE ROAD Tested in Ohio, Colorado and Nevada
  94. 94. AUTOMATION: AN ECONOMIC DISRUPTOR
  95. 95. Photo: Flickr/AIRS A TIME FOR CAREFUL NAVIGATION “Simply eliminating the drivers from cars, and keeping everything else about our system the same, will be a disaster.” —Robin Chase, co-founder of Zipcar, WRI Board Member
  96. 96. WHAT TO WATCH: Will EVs Go Mainstream and Reduce Emissions? Photo: Flickr/Paladin27 Chevy Bolt: 2017 Car of the Year
  97. 97. WHAT TO WATCH: Will Auto Innovation Crowd Out or Complement Mass Transit? Photo: Flickr/rachaelvoorhees
  98. 98. WHAT TO WATCH: Will Robots Pass Their Road Tests? Photo: Flickr/smoothgroover22 • Gothenburg: Volvo • Detroit: General Motors • Munich: BMW • Phoenix: Waymo • Cologne: Ford • Boston: nuTonomy • Los Angeles to New York City: Tesla
  99. 99. WHAT TO WATCH: Will It All Come Together?
  100. 100. WHAT TO WATCH: A Better Way? Photo: Flickr/William Murphy
  101. 101. Will Mobility Trends Help People & the Planet? STORY 6 Photo: thisisbossi/Flickr
  102. 102. 500 YEARS AGO Photo: Wikimedia Common
  103. 103. 100 YEARS AGO Photo: Russian Public Domain
  104. 104. 10 YEARS AGO Photo: Wikimedia Commons
  105. 105. Photo: Michael Fleshman/Flickr STORY 1 A NEW ADMINISTRATION: How Far Will Trump Go? STORY 2 GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS: A Fossil Fuel Renaissance or Renewable Energy Surge? STORY 3 INTERNATIONAL ACTION: Will Momentum on Climate Continue? STORY 4 TOMORROW’S MARKETS: Will Businesses & Investors Accelerate Momentum Toward Sustainability? STORY 5 SUSTAINABLE FOOD: The Ascent of Plant-Based Protein? STORY 6 AUTONOMOUS, SHARED, ELECTRIC: Will Mobility Trends Help People & the Planet?

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