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Peter Garforth: The Power of Energy Efficiency - Creating Globally Competitive Communities - June 14, 2012
- 1. The Power of Energy Efficiency Creating Globally Competitive Communities Peter Garforth Principal β Garforth International llc Energy Efficiency and Local Economic Opportunity June 14th, Traverse City, Michigan Insatiable Global Appetite for Energy Forecast to double by 2030 Source: IIASA / BP / EIA / Eurostat 1
- 2. Growing Energy Uncertainties ο Unpredictable energy prices ο Dependence on imports and supply security ο Impacts of climate change legislation ο Under-invested energy infrastructure ο China and India major new energy customers ο Blackouts, weather events, water shortages.. ο Regulation of shale gas and oil ο Nuclear moratorium? βEnergy price impacts? ο Energy innovation? β Competitive advantage? Managing Risk and Opportunity Population GDP / Energy Growth Redefining our World! Non-OECD Countries driving energy demand Source BP 2011 Statistical Review of World Energy 2
- 3. Extreme Weather Events ο More frequent extremes ο Asian Floods ο Russian heat storm ο EU Deep Freeze ο US floods, tornados, droughts ο Heat storms / floods ο Impacts of rising temperatures ο Sea rise 8" to 12" in last 50 years ο Changing crop yields ο Arctic opening up for exploration ο Higher intensity hurricanes ο Energy use a suspected contributor ο How will this impact energy costs? Climate Change Making Headlines again in USA Energy Cost and Reliability Risks Increasing US Transmission Grid Disturbances Insurance Claims ο Weather events increasing ο 2011 may be costliest on record ο Average 180,000 people /event affected ο 2008..09..10 costliest three years ο Unforced events also at historic highs ο $30 Bn Private claims in these years Importance of Local Strategies Sources: UD DOE-EIA, US GAO 3
- 4. Energy Productivity Differences How well do we spend our $1.5 Trillion? Energy Energy Region Population GDP Energy /Capita /GDP USA 4.5% 23.0% 17.8% 100 100 Canada 0.5% 2.5% 2.1% 107 108 EU 7.4% 30.3% 13.0% 45 56 Japan 1.9% 7.8% 3.9% 53 65 China 19.7% 6.8% 16.1% 21 307 India 17.1% 2.0% 4.9% 7 319 World 100% 100% 100% 22 198 Key to National Competitiveness *IEA and World Bank β 2009 sources Total US Energy Use ~ $1.5 Trillion Most in Urban Environment Coal Homes Buildings 40.4% Gas Commercial Domestic Oil Industry Uranium Industry 31.4% Renewable Transport Transportation 28.1% Imported Oil Largest User is Buildings Source: US DoE EIA - 2008 4
- 5. US Electricity Supply Chain Wasted Conversion Energy Coal Losses 70% Gas Nuclear Sold Renewable Electricity 30% Largest Cause of Greenhouse Gas Source: US DoE EIA 2007 Benchmark Efficiencies by Sector USA / EU Energy Example Sector Share Index USA/EU Industry 32% 1.2 : 1 Homes & Buildings 40% 2.5 : 1 Transportation 29% 1.4 : 1 ο Homes & Building efficiency opportunity by far the largest ο Industrial efficiency potential often overestimated High potential for productivity gains! *Indicative ratio of US average to EU Average 5
- 6. Dysfunctional Energy Supply Chain From fuel to service Uses 70% of all energy 25% 5% ο High-cost low returns ο High risk ο High emissions Pay 100 for fuel - Get less than 10 in services Why Communities Care New Energy Realitiesβ¦ ο Community Values and Image ο Investment and Green Jobs ο Unpredictable energy prices ο Supply quality and security ο Environmental legislation ο Weather events ο Nuclear and coal uncertaintiesβ¦ Fundamentally Different From Past 6
- 7. Successful Community Energy Planning Three Groups of Balanced Benefits Competitiveness Security Environment Breakthroughs are Achievable Wide Range of Energy Performance Emissions per Resident USA - Total USA - "Municipal" EU - Total EU - "Municipal" Holland. MI Loudoun, VA Arlington, VA Guelph, Ontario Mannheim, Germany Copenhagen, Denmark mt CO2 / capita 0 10 20 30 Communities Embracing Challenge 7
- 8. Setting Breakthrough Goals Reduction Targets per Resident USA - Total USA - "Municipal" EU - Total EU - "Municipal" Holland. MI Loudoun, VA Arlington, VA Guelph, Ontario Mannheim, Germany Copenhagen, Denmark mt CO2 / capita 0 10 20 30 We know how to get there! Global and Local Benchmarks Example of Copenhagen ο Triggered by 70βs energy crisis ο 3.0 tons / capita GHG ο Efficiency ο World leading building efficiency ο Energy Performance Validation ο District Energy ο Widespread across city ο Fuel flexibility ο Multi-fuel cogeneration ο Coal, oil, gas, biofuel, waste-to-energy ο Wind and solar generation ο Transport ο Urban design for bike/walking ο Efficient trams/trains ο City-wide EV plans ο High Value Employment 2009 β Voted βSecond Most Livable Cityβ 8
- 9. City of Holland Energy Use $135 M Annual Cost of Energy Primary Energy / Fuel 2010 9,898,000 MMBtue / 2,900,000 MWhe by type by sector Major Building Efficiency Opportunity City of Holland Emissions 24 mt per Resident 2010 Energy Related Emissions 792,500 metric tons / 873,600 short tons CO2e by type by sector Major Fuel Efficiency Opportunity 9
- 10. Holland Community Energy Plan 2011 to 2050 Goals Energy Mission Enhance City attractiveness to investors, businesses and residents through cost effective, reliable clean energy supply ο Lower cost energy than neighbouring communities ο Highly reliable electricity supply from local sources ο Industrial Energy Service tailored to investorsβ needs ο Flexibility to meet changing technologies, legislation, fuel costs and other market conditions ο Meet commitment to the U.S. Conference of Mayors Climate Protection Agreement ο Be a leader in developing regional energy productivity strategy Comprehensive Plan with Year on Year Targets Efficiency always comes First! Loading Order / Trias Energetica 1. Energy efficiency - If you donβt need it donβt use it 2. Heat Recovery β It itβs already there β use it 3. Renewable energy β If it makes sense, go carbon free 4. Energy distribution β Invest where it makes sense Integrated Approach β Tailored for Community 10
- 11. Home & Building Efficiency in Nutshell ο Benefits ο Energy not used is always the cheapest ο Energy not used is always the cleanest ο Major reduction of energy costs ο Economically viable efficiencies of 30% to 60% ο Create good local jobs ο Sets the stage for deeper community wide energy efficiencies ο Challenges ο Rapidly achieving large enough scale ο Readily available and affordable financing ο Lifetime Performance validation Energy Performance Labeling Homes and Buildings ο Low-cost performance validation tool ο Available when sold or rented ο Display in public buildings ο Independent certification ο Discount financing ο Voluntary approaches work fine! Basis for Market Driven Improvement 11
- 12. Impact of Efficiency Example from Arlington County Base Case Crucial First Step High Quality Employment Clean Economy- Ohio ο Clean Jobs ο 105,306 ο 6th in USA ο Growth since 2003 ο 16,793 jobs / 2.5% per year ο 12th / 38th in USA ο Share of Total Jobs ο 2.0% ο 27th in USA ο Median Wage ο $39,275 ο 10% higher than average Quality Jobs with Modest Education 12
- 13. High Quality Employment Clean Economy- Michigan ο Clean Jobs ο 76,941 ο 12th in USA ο Growth since 2003 ο -1,596 jobs / -0.3% per year ο Last / Last in USA ο Share of Total Jobs ο 1.9% ο 27th in USA ο Median Wage ο $40,558 ο 7% higher than average New Opportunity? Four years down the Roadβ¦. From City of Guelph , Ontario ο Passed Energy Plan in 2007 by unanimous council vote ο National Role Model ο Over 2,000 Green jobs ο City major influence on regional and national policy Guelph boasts lowest jobless rate in country Thursday, September, 15, 2011 - 10:10:02 AM It may not be an all-time low, but Guelphβs unemployment rate for August came close at 4.7 per cent β the lowest in the country. ββ¦Initiatives such as Guelphβs Community Energy Initiative contribute to the long-term prosperity of the city and make it more appealing to business investment β¦β 13
- 14. A Little City with Big Dreams VΓ€xjΓΆ, Sweden ο Population: 60,800 ο Mixed Urban / Rural ο Efficiency targets from1980βs ο Fossil-free target set in 1996 ο 50% achieved ο Integrated Approach ο Efficient Homes and Buildings ο Community engagement ο Flexible District Heating ο Cogeneration ο Biomass fuel focus ο Global-EU-National role model ο Tourism and Investment ο Global Media and Policy focus Voted Greenest City In Europe in 2007 VΓ€xjΓΆ Energy Emissions Results to date Current Focus - Transport 14
- 15. Grand Traverse County North American Role Model? ο Mixed Urban / Rural ο Mixed High and Low-Densities ο Pursue breakthrough energy concepts ο North American role model for smaller mixed urban/rural communities ο Potential for Integrated Approaches ο Efficient Homes and Buildings ο Community engagement ο District Energy ο Clean and Renewable supplies ο Low-impact Transport ο Tourism and Investment ο Local value-added and jobs ο Magnet for policy focus and support Could GTC have a Big Energy Goal? Thank You Peter Garforth Garforth International llc peter@garforthint.com +1 (419) 578 9613 - Office +1 (419) 320 0664 - Mobile 15