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Stories to Watch 2016 #stw16

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On January 13th, WRI President and CEO Dr. Andrew Steer presented the big stories that will shape the world in 2016. How do we turn the Paris Agreement from promise to action?What are the major trends in energy, finance, business, food and cities? Which countries will be in the spotlight?

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Stories to Watch 2016 #stw16

  1. 1. Photo: Greenpeace FEATURING Andrew Steer President & CEO January 13, 2016
  2. 2. WORST REFUGEE CRISIS SINCE WWII 60 million people displaced globally Photo: CAPHOD Photo Library/Flickr
  3. 3. TERRORISM SPIKES AROUND THE WORLD Photo: The Apex Archive
  4. 4. SLOW ECONOMIC GROWTH: A NEW NORMAL? Photo: Wendell/Flickr
  5. 5. BUT, SIGNS OF HOPE Photo: United Nations
  6. 6. FROM COMMITMENTS… Photo: COP Paris/Flickr
  7. 7. …TO ACTION Photo: Flickr/.freeside.
  8. 8. THE PARIS AGREEMENT: Will Momentum Continue? STORY 1 Photo: Greenpeace
  9. 9. A TURNING POINT ON CLIMATE Photo: COP Paris
  10. 10. WHAT’S IN THE AGREEMENT?
  11. 11. MORE AMBITION NEEDED Source: WRI analysis by Kelly Levin and Taryn Fransen http://www.wri.org/blog/2015/11/insider-why-are-indc- studies-reaching-different-temperature-estimates
  12. 12. MORE AMBITION NEEDED Source: WRI analysis by Kelly Levin and Taryn Fransen http://www.wri.org/blog/2015/11/insider-why-are-indc- studies-reaching-different-temperature-estimates
  13. 13. MORE AMBITION NEEDED Source: WRI analysis by Kelly Levin and Taryn Fransen http://www.wri.org/blog/2015/11/insider-why-are-indc- studies-reaching-different-temperature-estimates
  14. 14. WHAT TO WATCH: Will Countries Seize Momentum? Photo: Elentari86/Flickr
  15. 15. WHAT TO WATCH: How Many Countries Sign On? Photo: Susan Melkisethian/Flickr April 22: Earth Day
  16. 16. WHAT TO WATCH: Progress on National Commitments? Source: CAIT Paris Contributions Map/WRI 135 Countries Set GHG Targets
  17. 17. WHAT TO WATCH: India as a Bellwether? Photo: Narendra Modi/Flickr Goal: 3GW to 100GW Solar Power by 2022
  18. 18. Will Momentum Continue? STORY 1 Photo: Greenpeace
  19. 19. NEW CLIMATE ECONOMY: Will the Message Take Root? STORY 2 Photo: Greenpeace
  20. 20. THE INTELLECTUAL JOURNEY Photo: C40 Cities/Flickr
  21. 21. THE INTELLECTUAL JOURNEY • Economic growth and climate action are tradeoffs Photo: C40 Cities/Flickr
  22. 22. THE INTELLECTUAL JOURNEY • Economic growth and climate action are tradeoffs • Economic growth can be consistent with climate action Photo: C40 Cities/Flickr
  23. 23. THE INTELLECTUAL JOURNEY • Economic growth and climate action are tradeoffs • Economic growth can be consistent with climate action • Economic growth is only possible with climate action Photo: C40 Cities/Flickr
  24. 24. BUSINESSES: GROWING COMMITMENTS • 1,000+ companies commit to carbon pricing • 150+ U.S. companies pledge support for climate action • 116 companies commit to Science-Based Targets Source: http://sciencebasedtargets.org/; Carbon Pricing; The White House Photo: iStock
  25. 25. WHAT TO WATCH: Will Businesses Follow Through? Photo: COP Paris/Flickr
  26. 26. WHAT TO WATCH: More Science-Based Targets?
  27. 27. WHAT TO WATCH: Alignment on Lobbying Image: Flickr/Daniel Guy
  28. 28. ACTION IN CITIES, TOO 425+Cities join the Compact of Mayors Source: Compact of Mayors
  29. 29. WHAT TO WATCH: Will Cities Deliver? Photo:WRI
  30. 30. WHAT TO WATCH: Will New Urban Narrative Take Hold? Photo: Scipio/Flickr October: Habitat III Conference Quito, Ecuador
  31. 31. Will the Message Take Root? STORY 2 Image: Greenpeace
  32. 32. GREEN FINANCE: Will the Financial System Evolve? STORY 3 Photo:Travel Aficionado/Flickr
  33. 33. RAISING BILLIONS, SHIFTING TRILLIONS Photo: Scott Beale/Flickr
  34. 34. GREENING FINANCIAL SYSTEMS: WHAT WILL IT TAKE?
  35. 35. GREENING FINANCIAL SYSTEMS: WHAT WILL IT TAKE?
  36. 36. GREENING FINANCIAL SYSTEMS: WHAT WILL IT TAKE?
  37. 37. GREENING FINANCIAL SYSTEMS: WHAT WILL IT TAKE?
  38. 38. GREENING FINANCIAL SYSTEMS: WHAT WILL IT TAKE?
  39. 39. WHY NOT ENOUGH FUNDING FOR GREEN PROJECTS?
  40. 40. WHY NOT ENOUGH FUNDING FOR GREEN PROJECTS?
  41. 41. SIGNS OF CHANGE: INCREASING AWARENESS Source: Bank of England; Photo: World Economic Forum/Flickr “Shifts in our climate bring potentially profound implications for insurers, financial stability and the economy.” – Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England
  42. 42. SIGNS OF CHANGE: ACTION IN MAJOR COUNTRIES Photo: bfishadow/Flickr
  43. 43. WHAT TO WATCH: Will China’s G20 Deliver? Photo: European Council President/Flickr
  44. 44. WHAT TO WATCH: Will G20 Embrace Systemic Reform? Photo: Alex Proimos/Flickr • Disclosure guidelines • Environmental stress tests • Lenders liability • Green bond regulations • Etc.
  45. 45. WHAT TO WATCH: What Will the New Taskforce Say? Image: Angela Radulescu/Flickr Recommendations in December
  46. 46. WHAT TO WATCH: Green Climate Fund: Will Money Flow? Photo: The Green Climate Fund Goal: $2.5 billion in 2016
  47. 47. WHAT TO WATCH: Which Way on Multilateral Investment? Photo: Yardley/Flickr Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) New Development Bank Silk Road Fund
  48. 48. WHAT TO WATCH: Will Institutional Investors Adjust? Image: World Bank Photo Collection/Flickr • $600 billion committed to decarbonization • $1 trillion target in 2016?
  49. 49. Will the Financial System Evolve? STORY 3 Image:Travel Aficionado/Flickr
  50. 50. FOOD LOSS & WASTE: A Growing Movement? STORY 4 Image: superk8nyc/Flickr
  51. 51. A GLOBAL CHALLENGE • 2.3 billion more people by 2050 • 70% greater food demand in 2050 Source: UN 2015; World Resources Report 2015; FAO 2015. Photo: Ed Yourdon/Flickr
  52. 52. WHAT A WASTE… 32% of all food is wasted from farm to fork Photo: Shutterstock
  53. 53. FINANCIAL DRAIN Loss of $940 billion per year Source: FAO 2015; Photo: Alexander Edward/Flickr
  54. 54. HURTS FOOD SECURITY 1 in 9 people don’t get enough food today Source: World Bank; Photo: GAC | AMC/Flickr
  55. 55. INCREASES PRESSURE ON RESOURCES Food loss & waste uses cropland greater than the size of China Source: Kummu, M. et al, 2012; FAO, 2013; Photo: John Roberts/Flickr
  56. 56. MAJOR DRIVER OF EMISSIONS Source: CAIT, 2015, FAO 2015 Food wastage footprint & climate change. Rome: FAO
  57. 57. A NEW GLOBAL GOAL Halve Global Food Waste by 2030 Source: United Nations; Image: United Nations
  58. 58. WHAT TO WATCH: A Common Global Standard? Photo: Flickr/Lyza
  59. 59. WHAT TO WATCH: Will Businesses Make Progress? Consumer Goods Forum: 400 members Goal to cut food waste in half by 2025
  60. 60. WHAT TO WATCH: Will Companies Lead? Photo: raver_mikey/Flickr • Transparency • Whole value chain approach • Food surplus donation
  61. 61. WHAT TO WATCH: Will More Countries Set Targets? Source: USDA; Image: US Department of Agriculture/Flickr US GOAL 50% reduction in food waste by 2030
  62. 62. WHAT TO WATCH: Will Political Momentum Grow? Image: World Economic Forum/Flickr Launch of Champions 12.3 in Davos
  63. 63. A Growing Movement? STORY 4 Photo: superk8nyc/Flickr
  64. 64. CHINA: Will a New Vision Take Hold? STORY 5 Image: Trey Ratcliff/Flickr
  65. 65. A GOOD RIDE 10X increase in GDP since 1990 Note: GDP (Constant 2005 US$); Source: World Bank Development Indicators; Photo: IOC Young Reporters/Flickr
  66. 66. A VOLATILE MOMENT Source: Shanghai Composite Index data via Quandl Shanghai Composite Index (June 2015 – Jan 2016)
  67. 67. CURRENT MODEL CANNOT CONTINUE ‘Red Alerts’ for air pollution close schools and business Photo: V.T. Polywoda/Flickr
  68. 68. A TEST FOR CHINA’S LEADERS "China's development should not just be focused on growth pace, but, more importantly, on growth quality” – President Xi Source: http://english.cri.cn/12394/2015/11/03/191s902485.htm ; Image: UN Photo/Loey Felipe/Flickr
  69. 69. 13TH FIVE YEAR PLAN March 2016: National People’s Congress to Approve Plan Photo: Remko Tanis/Flickr
  70. 70. CHINA’S BROAD TARGETS ALREADY ANNOUNCED • Peak CO2 emissions by 2030 (or earlier) • Double non-fossil fuels in the energy mix by 2030 • Reduce carbon intensity 60–65% from 2005 levels by 2030 Source: UNFCC; Photo: Peter F/Flickr
  71. 71. What targets for wind & solar pre-2020? Photo: The Climate Group/Flickr WHAT TO WATCH: Progress on Clean Energy?
  72. 72. • More caps on coal? • Limits on coal finance? Photo: Rose Robinson/Flickr WHAT TO WATCH: When Will Coal Peak?
  73. 73. Progress toward national trading? Photo: ansoncfit/Flickr WHAT TO WATCH: Carbon Trading System?
  74. 74. • 3x building stock by 2030 • How many more low- carbon pilot cities? Photo: depps/Flickr WHAT TO WATCH: A New Urbanization?
  75. 75. • Will China reduce excess capacity in steel & heavy industries? • How fast will the service industry grow? Photo: gregoire_m/Flickr WHAT TO WATCH: Rebalancing the Economy?
  76. 76. Will a New Vision Take Hold? STORY 5: Photo: Trey Ratcliff/Flickr
  77. 77. US CLIMATE LEADERSHIP: Will it Continue? STORY 6 Photo: ABC News/Flickr
  78. 78. 2015: TAX CREDITS FOR RENEWABLES Photo: Mark Fischer/Flickr
  79. 79. 2015: KEYSTONE XL PIPELINE REJECTED Photo: Bonnie Chan/Rainforest Action Network
  80. 80. 2015: CLEAN POWER PLAN FINALIZED • 17% by 2020 • 26-28% by 2025 (below 2005 levels) Photo: Alex Ferguson/Flickr US Climate Goals
  81. 81. HOW ARE STATES RESPONDING? 27 States Suing Source: (E&E Publishing, LLC) http://www.eenews.net/interactive/clean_power_plan
  82. 82. HOW ARE STATES RESPONDING? But 38 States Drafting Plans (so far) Source: (E&E Publishing, LLC) http://www.eenews.net/interactive/clean_power_plan
  83. 83. WHAT TO WATCH: How Will Courts Rule? (February/March) Photo: Wikimedia Commons
  84. 84. WHAT TO WATCH: What Will States’ Plans Look Like? (September) Photo: Energy.gov/Flickr
  85. 85. WHAT TO WATCH: Photo: Duke Energy/Flickr 50+ Companies Signed on to Renewable Energy Buyers Principles How Will Utilities Respond?
  86. 86. WHAT TO WATCH: Photo: The White House/Flickr • HFCs Standards • Fuel Efficiency Standards • Methane in Landfills & Infrastructure More Executive Action?
  87. 87. WHAT TO WATCH: Photo: ABC News/Flickr How Will Climate Play in the Campaigns?
  88. 88. WHAT TO WATCH: Photo: AP How Will Climate Play in the Campaigns?
  89. 89. IN NOVEMBER… Photo: Getty Images
  90. 90. Will it Continue? STORY 6 Photo: ABC News/Flickr
  91. 91. Photo: Greenpeace THE PARIS AGREEMENT: Will Momentum Continue? NEW CLIMATE ECONOMY: Will the Message Take Root? GREEN FINANCE: Will the Financial System Evolve? FOOD LOSS & WASTE: A Growing Movement? CHINA: Will a New Vision Take Hold? US CLIMATE LEADERSHIP: Will it Continue?

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