Sn Climate Equity Sa Media Aug 09

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Global warming in an unequal world: Facts, politics and way ahead

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Sn Climate Equity Sa Media Aug 09

  1. 1. <ul><li>Global warming in an unequal world : Facts, politics and way ahead </li></ul><ul><li>CSE </li></ul><ul><li>At the South Asia Media Briefing Workshop </li></ul><ul><li>Delhi, August 27-28 </li></ul>
  2. 2. Climate change: Real <ul><li>Climate change is real ; it is already dangerous; heading towards catastrophe </li></ul><ul><li>Climate change is urgent ; it needs us to act quickly and drastically </li></ul><ul><li>But how ? Climate change is linked to economic growth. Can we re-invent growth? </li></ul>
  3. 3. Is this climate change? <ul><li>Un-seasonal rains in Kerala, in Tamil Nadu, in Karnataka, in Gujarat, in Rajasthan, frost in Himachal in 2008 or extremely variable rainfall in 2009 leading to drought across the country </li></ul><ul><li>Is this climate change? </li></ul><ul><li>Intense rain in Mumbai, July 2005. In 24 hours, 944 mm </li></ul><ul><li>Is this climate change? </li></ul><ul><li>The cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh, or Nargis in Myanmar or Alia in West Bengal </li></ul><ul><li>Is this climate change? </li></ul>
  4. 4. No. But also yes <ul><li>Paradox of our times </li></ul><ul><li>Every individual event is not climate change </li></ul><ul><li>But the changing trend of changing weather and growing intensity of extreme events is about climate change </li></ul><ul><li>Difficult to predict </li></ul><ul><li>Difficult to assess because we do not have long-term data </li></ul>
  5. 5. Impacts of climate change <ul><li>Extreme and variable weather events -- more cold waves, more heat.. </li></ul><ul><li>More rain, but less rainy days -- more intense rain and sub-regional changes -- more floods and more droughts </li></ul><ul><li>More tropical cyclones, more hurricanes </li></ul><ul><li>More and faster melting of glaciers </li></ul>
  6. 6. What and why climate change? <ul><li>“ Change in climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity and is addition to climate variability” </li></ul><ul><li>Natural greenhouse effect : gases act as a partial blanket for longwave radiation coming from the surface + </li></ul><ul><li>Enhanced greenhouse effect : increased greenhouse gases accumulate in atmosphere, increase concentration and forcing -- CO2, methane, nitrous oxide, chloroflurocarbons </li></ul>
  7. 12. Global temperature increased 0.7 ° C+0.7 ° C
  8. 13. The challenge: 2 ° C <ul><li>If annual emissions remain at today’s level, greenhouse gas levels would be close to 550 ppm by 2050 </li></ul><ul><li>This would mean temperature increase of 3-5°C </li></ul><ul><li>The difference in temperature between the last ice age (3 million years ago) and now is 5°C </li></ul><ul><li>2°C target need us to cap CO2e at 450 ppm. World already reaching 430 ppm -- still dangerous </li></ul>
  9. 15. Drastic reduction needed: For 450 ppm (2°C) reduce 85% by 2050
  10. 16. Problem: gases are linked to economic growth
  11. 17. Historical emissions : A tonne of CO2 emitted in 1850 same value as tonne of CO2 emitted in 2005
  12. 20. Climate injustice: per capita emissions in the world
  13. 22. Present scenario <ul><li>1 US citizen = </li></ul><ul><li>107 Bangladeshis </li></ul><ul><li>134 Bhutanese </li></ul><ul><li>19 Indians </li></ul><ul><li>269 Nepalese </li></ul><ul><li>Unacceptable. Need to secure ecological space for growth </li></ul>
  14. 23. 3-truths: Climate change political and economic challenge <ul><li>Is related to economic growth . No one has built a low carbon economy (as yet) </li></ul><ul><li>Is about sharing growth between nations and between people. The rich must reduce so that the poor can grow. Create ecological space. </li></ul><ul><li>Is about cooperation . If the rich emitted yesterday, the emerging rich world will do today. Cooperation demands equity and fairness. It is a pre-requisite for an effective climate agreement. </li></ul>
  15. 24. 2 degree challenge requires capping emissions
  16. 25. Carbon arithmetic Will have to share the emission budget How will this be done?
  17. 27. 2009: Talk, no action <ul><li>First climate conference in 1988; Convention signed in 1992 </li></ul><ul><li>In 1997 world agreed in Kyoto to small change – 5% reduction by developed world </li></ul><ul><li>In 2009: Kyoto targets not met; industrial country emissions increasing; world at risk </li></ul><ul><li>Now pressure on China and India.. </li></ul><ul><li>All want to buy -- ‘offset’ emissions -- not to change domestically: Why? </li></ul>
  18. 28. Annex 1 have not cut emissions. Hiding behind the decrease of Economies in Transition
  19. 29. <ul><li>Between 1990-2006 </li></ul><ul><li>• CO2 emissions have increased in the industrialised world </li></ul><ul><li>• Only small gains in UK, Sweden and Germany </li></ul><ul><li>• But beginning to increase again </li></ul><ul><li>• Gas and reunification impact fading? </li></ul>
  20. 30. No energy transition made when the world needs transformation
  21. 31. Big words and small change
  22. 32. Negotiations: mean and messy <ul><li>Bali-Poznan-Copenhagen </li></ul><ul><li>Politics of long-term (2050) verses interim target (2020) </li></ul><ul><li>Politics of the base-year : cut emissions but how much measured from which year? </li></ul><ul><li>And </li></ul><ul><li>Pressure on China, India and rest to take on emission reduction targets -- more advanced countries, differentiation… </li></ul>
  23. 33. Targets: numbers that matter <ul><li>How much from where? </li></ul><ul><li>Australia: 5-15% by 2020 over 2000 level (5% means 18% increase over 1990 level) </li></ul><ul><li>Japan: 7% from 1990 level by 2020 </li></ul><ul><li>US: 20% from 2005 level (stablise at 1990 level) </li></ul><ul><li>EU: 20-30% from 1990 level (advantage of EITs) </li></ul>
  24. 37. No more kindergarten approach <ul><li>Framework for global agreement : </li></ul><ul><li>Industrialised countries to take deep cuts (40% by 2020) minimum. </li></ul><ul><li>Emerging rich and rest to participate, not by taking legally binding cuts but through a strategy to ‘ avoid ’ future emissions. </li></ul><ul><li>Not in our interest to first pollute, then clean up. Not in our interest to deforest our lands and then worry about water and livelihood security </li></ul>
  25. 38. But this needs supportive framework.. The South will do… <ul><li>• … what the North has done ...first get rich; add to pollution; then invest in cleaning up </li></ul><ul><li>• The South will need to invest in efficiency, pollution control and new technologies before it gets rich. Before it can afford the change </li></ul><ul><li>This is why we need the just global framework </li></ul>
  26. 40. We can re-invent growth.. <ul><li>We can build “clean” coal power stations; invest in solar and renewables </li></ul><ul><li>Can build distributed power grid, based on renewable… microhydel </li></ul><ul><li>Can re-invent mobility: move to public transport </li></ul><ul><li>18% emissions from land use changes. Can protect forests; Can plant new forests </li></ul>
  27. 41. New renewables: still small part of world primary energy supply: less than 1% 39% of India’s primary energy comes from renewables – because of chulhas of poor
  28. 42. Energy: another win-win But has cost
  29. 43. Solar will cost. But doing nothing will cost us the earth <ul><li>• Target: 20,000 mw of solar installed capacity in 2020; India has generation based incentive. Will pay for technology introduction. But this costs. Can only do demonstration plants -- target 50 mw. Not spend US$ 80-180 billion </li></ul><ul><li>• Indians can afford power: 5-8 cents/kwhr </li></ul><ul><li>• Solar will cost: 20-40 cents/kwhr </li></ul><ul><li>• Can only upscale if we use equity framework to pay the difference between existing options and new (more expensive) options </li></ul>
  30. 44. Re-invent mobility: can we succeed where the world has failed?
  31. 45. Efficiency is not the answer; sufficiency.. Can we restrain cars? In UK, cars became more efficient; emissions increased as people bought more; drove more
  32. 46. Different futures possible <ul><li>Cars occupy 90 per cent of road space in cities. </li></ul><ul><li>But cars have not replaced the bus, the bicycle or walking. </li></ul><ul><li>Cars have only marginalised the bus . </li></ul><ul><li>60% use bus </li></ul><ul><li>20% use car+2-wheeler </li></ul><ul><li>20% cycle </li></ul><ul><li>Car takes 80% road space </li></ul>
  33. 47. Forest futures: win-win <ul><li>Large areas under forests -- critical for water and livelihood security </li></ul><ul><li>Cutting forests contributes to emissions; Planting forests ‘soaks’ up emissions </li></ul><ul><li>Options: </li></ul><ul><li>Payment for standing forests </li></ul><ul><li>Payment to plant new forests </li></ul><ul><li>Benefit local economies -- Win-win </li></ul>
  34. 48. Requires re-thinking of role of forests in our economies <ul><li>Forests not carbon sticks; habitats of people </li></ul><ul><li>Chipko -- people demanded rights to cut trees; critical for local survival </li></ul><ul><li>Need </li></ul><ul><li>Payment to compensate for protection; limited use </li></ul><ul><li>Payment to go to local communities </li></ul><ul><li>Payment for planting trees to be included </li></ul>
  35. 49. At Copenhagen <ul><li>To agree on : </li></ul><ul><li>How much will developed world cut? </li></ul><ul><li>How will the transition in the developed world be paid for? What money and technology is needed for this? </li></ul><ul><li>How will people ‘adapt’ to climate change and what funds are needed? </li></ul>
  36. 50. Not acceptable
  37. 51. Otherwise road to ‘common’ hell

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