Slides on climate used for talk onKorean national TV, 2019, for Global leadership Forum. Firsat half explains why the extinction of the human species Is a serious risk, far more serious than what Great Thornburg has proven to you yet. Second half shows what we could do about it, at 1/100 the cost of the climate regulations which get attentiontoday.

1. Worst Case Climate Risk: (1) How
Bad?; (2) Cost-Effective response
 “Is it worth $1 trillion/year to deeply reduce a 25%
probability of damage which could make humanity
extinct?” (John Kerry). What I learned in last big US effort.
 We can “buy insurance” much more cost-effective than that.
©ib.bioninja.com.au

2. (1) Will Euxinia Kill All Humans?
How Big is the Risk, How Soon?
Dr. Paul J. Werbos
 Research Program Director, National Science
Foundation 1988-2015 (“AI”, power grids,quantum)
 Detailed to Senator Specter/EPW in 2009:
THE PLACE AND YEAR OF US
CLIMATE BILLS
 https://youtu.be/dvteE6smrF0 Werbos euxinia
 Still active in IEEE and many other professional
groups like Chile Solar Energy Research

3. US Senate skeptics 2009: “CO2
was >2000 ppm for millions of years
in earlier earth. Didn’t life just go on
as usual? How bad could it be?”
No one in the room knew,
but I decided to find out.

4. NSF Geosciences Director
Introduced World Expert of Mass
Death for Talk in 2009
At end, “my gut
feeling is we all die
if CO2 reaches 1000
ppm”
Peter Ward, $3 on
Kindle (really)
Good Bibliography

5.  NSF Geosciences sponsored best data on past:
 Graph from Peter Ward, Under a Green Sky,
adapted by Englander. Ward theory half right.
H2S in air
And
Radiation
Enough
To kill
All humans

6. But we already know what the two
factors are which cause H2S archaea
to proliferate (google “stinky aquarium”)
and see paper
by Kump
 Low O2 in water: exactly Ward’s “stratified ocean,”
blocking the “lungs of the planet” (THC). How far are we?
 NUTRIENT supply already hugely plentiful today thanks
to agriculture! 50,000BC low O2 but no agriculture (yet?)
 Stoichiometry doesn’t work for Ward’s purple bug hope.

7. NOAA data: 40 years for Pacific O2?

8. But will the Pacific O2 get so low by
2050-60 that H2S bugs proliferate?
 How low is low enough? We need R&D on EXACT
conditions.
 Will the rate of decline slow enough to give us more
time? WE DON’T KNOW!!!!
 See Purkey, Sarah G., et al, A synoptic view of the
ventilation and circulation of Antarctic Bottom
Water(AABW) …Annual review of marine
science 2018.
 We know that O2 to AABW comes from two types
of convection currents …

9. THC 101: What pushes oxygen rich
surface water into the deep ocean:
2 ways Heating raises
density below
crucial density (4C
fresh,0C salty).
Freezing raises
density of water
left behind (green
ice).

10. Good News for Antarctic FOR THE
MOMENT
Credit: valuewalk.com, reflects Shepherd, Andrew, et
al. "Trends in Antarctic Ice Sheet Elevation and
Mass." Geophysical Research Letters (2019)
Where radical melting
now happens, sudden
collapse
quite possible (sea level)
Ross Sea Polynya:
Main source of new
Oxygen to Pacific
Ocean Bottom Water

11. But in 40-100 years, Ward’s gut
might prove true if this continues…
Big new push in China.
Unlike biofuel,
clathrates 10-20 times
as much GHG per
energy, to atmosphere
or, worse, to ocean
euxinia direct (anoxia
in Pacific direct to
South China Sea).
We are in a race!!!!
Image credit: Live Science

12. How Could We Reduce Climate
Risk?
 All 3 popular strategies are grossly inefficient
– Expensive empty gestures. Let 1000 flowers bloom,
from $60/kwh rooftops (trillions of $) to >$100/ton CO2
storage.
– Brute force: EIA/EPA predicted Obama bill $200/ton by
2100 but still only 40% cut in US CO2, because cars did
not change much.
– Personal action in your life: DO use less gasoline but
other actions do not help much, try other actions.
 The alternative: 5 point plan using better technology
and more efficient markets (Bush CCTP?)

13. What’s Important for CO2:
Data from DOE/EIA-0573 (2009)
(which also listed other GHG)
 Total US CO2 emissions: 5426 million
tons (Table 7, page 22)
› 1854 direct CO2 from transportation
› 2160 direct from electric utilities
› 1412 all other places, including electricity
generation by industry and commercial
sectors
 $200/ton (Obama bill) would mean>$1 trillion
per year fees just in US unless emissions fall

14. 5 Point Plan To Reduce the Worst
Climate Risk
1.Sectoral Bill:
Cut net GHG in
Electricity Generation
2.Sectoral Bill:
Cut net GHG in
Cars and Trucks
3.Agriculture:
Recycle $20-$40/ton
CO2 fee to recycle CO2
From terra preta to happy cows
4. Geoengineering:
R&D for better
options from aerosols
to mirrors to..

5. New Basic R&D:
Ocean options,
Archaea, currents

15. 1. How to Cut CO2 From Electric
Generation @ Low Cost*
 Opportunities for New Proven AI in Power Grids
 Crucial Issues in Partner Technologies for Grid
– Cybersecurity and cyberblitzkrieg
– New technology for renewables
– New power electronics, motors, fuel flexibility
 Power grids can lead development of more
sustainable “Internet of Things” (IOT)
 IOT challenges in general
*www.werbos.com/E/GridIOT.pdf

16. “NSF is currently supporting research to develop a
‘4th generation intelligent grid’ that would use
intelligent sytem-wide optimization to allow up to
80% of electricity to come from renewable sources
and 80% of cars to be pluggable electric vehicles
(PEV) without compromising reliability , and at
minimum cost to the Nation (Werbos 2011).”
obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/
microsites/ostp/nstc-smart-grid-june2011.pdf
(or search on White House smart grid 2011)
16

17. IEEE COMPUTATIONAL INTELLIGENCE MAGAZINE
AUGUST 2011
Also posted at www.Werbos.com/energy.htm

18. • US and EU are already above 10 cents per kwh. China is less, but heavily
subsidized, encountering shortages and price rises with coal (not
counting CO2).
• OECD/IEA: world uses 21 thousand terawatt hours per year (2011). At 10
cents per kwh, that is worth $2 trillion per year. With wind or solar
supplying all, that would double or more. (Storage needs, backup,
regulation.)

19. Breakthroughs in Power Towers
Offer <7¢/kwh 24/7 in Most Earth
www.energy.gov/eere/solar/
generation-3-concentrating-
solar-power-systems-gen3-csp
Brayton Energy USA
-- breakthrough new engine
(NREL, Google)
-- Storage <$50/kwh
DEWA 3 of 4 phases built
Cost estimates pass scrutiny:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/
science/article/pii/
S1755008418300309
Energy, Volume 173, 15 April 2019

20. HEDGE RISK: 3¢/kwh PPAs based on
solar cells probably safe at 10 gigawatts,
but R&D can secure the path to $100
billion/year (i.e. be sure of <8¢/kwh).
 Abengoa will bid its 12¢/kwh
technology with hope of lower:
– Power towers: little mirrors focus
on “eye in the sky+storage.
 Unproven leadership
opportunity, solar orchards:
– Each “tree” stands on its own,
moving reflector points to small
Stirling engine. (Sandia/STM)

21. Proposed Start: 10 gigawatts on new
line as long as TXPJM 2¢/kwh
1gw2.8TWH/year. With (10¢-3¢-2¢)*28TWH,
$1.5 billion/year extra profit on $3b investment
MAIN POLICY NEED: “PICKENS BILL” TO ALLOW WIRES

22. CTG Already Invests in Renewables
in Brazil. Why Go to Chile?
 Because cost per kwh is half as much when sun is
more than twice as strong, for any technology.
5¢/kwh + 2¢/kwh < 10¢/kwh, difference worth $30
billion on $100 billion. (Add 2¢ in Brazil anyway.)
Source:
SolarGIS

23. Review at Werbos, P.
(2014). Reviewing Space
Solar Power policy. Ad
Astra, 26(2).:
– NIAC Report: New
Design for 9¢/kwh if
launch costs down to
$500/kg-LEO
– DARPA XS-1
Technology could get
to ≤$500/kg-LEO

24. 2. How To Zero Out Net CO2 in Cars and
Trucks: Best Near-Term Hope*
Highest mpg
Hybrids Cut
Gas per Mile
By 50%
With GEM fuel-flexible cars,
biofuels might supply ¼
of present liquid fuel
demand trends
Plug-in Hybrids
with 10kwh batteries
get half their energy
from electricity
* Talk at Rayburn 2007, to support Bush Energy
Independence and Security Act. www.Werbos.com/oil.htm.

25. Plug-in Hybrids (PHEV) : A Large-
Scale Opportunity Here and Now
 Hybrids cut liquid fuel use 50%
already. Plug-ins cut 50% of that.
– “Researchers have shown .. (PHEV)
offering.. electric range of 32 km
will yield… 50% reduction..” (IEEE
Spectrum, July/05). Shown in
working Prius.
 Battery breakthroughs in China: from 10/07, 10kwh
batteries (larger than) cost $2,000. www.thunder-sky.com.
Thus an extra $2,000 per car can cut gas dependence in half.
 Gives economic security in case of sudden gasoline cutoff.
 Does not strain grid – actually strengthens it, if done right.

26. GEM Flexibly Fuel Vehicles (FFV)
One Tank To Hold Them All
G: Gasoline
E: Ethanol
M: Methanol
With an FFV, you choose each day which to buy.
At $100-200/car, a more open competition, level playing field,
better unleash the power of the free market.
GEM flexibility  use of any corrosive fuel, adaptive engine
control.

27. What IS Methanol?
C H
H
H
H
C H
H
H
O
H
C H
H
H
O
H
C HH
Methane
Natural Gas
Scarce as Oil
Needs Special
Tank Ethanol
e.g From Corn
Drinkable
Methanol
Good H Carrier
Can Be Bioliquid
Or From Coal, Gas

28. Nonfood biofuels could supply half our fuel
needs using old technology – if we stop
demanding purity in our ethanol/alcohol!
(Also, try a google on “forest industry” methanol.)
We need to give this guy permission to compete with Saudi Arabia and Iran
for the car fuel market! He doesn’t need a subsidy – only more freedom
and an open door! Just give him a chance, and within 15 years…

29. Fuel flexibility can be brought online very quickly, much faster than
hybrids merely doubling every year!
All major manufacturers which sell in US have sold such cars in Brazil!!

30. World’s First Mass Market PHEV
2nd half of 2008: BYD Motors F6DM
•20 kwh battery, 65 miles all-electric driving range
•Made in Shenzhen, China
•Follow-on in 2009: F3DM, 100 miles all-electric
•www.byd.com

31. China Government Plan
China Daily, posted in chinaview 10/27/7
 Wan Gang, new Minister of
Science and Technology & “sea
turtle”, strongly supports New
Energy Vehicle Key Project of the
National Hi-Tech R&D Program.
 Zhen Zijian, Deputy Director:
“(this is) the priority for China’s auto industry, which is expected to
become the world’s largest in 10-15 years.”
 Ouyang Minggao (Tsinghua):”.. an innovative union of private
companies, research bodies & universities.. along 3 paths – hybrid,
clean fuel and electric vehicles.” Also google Caijing magazine.
 Chery says the A5 hybrid 4-door sedan will be $1,400-$2,900 higher
than conventional version which starts at $9,975.

32. What limits rate of deployment of
hybrids & plug-ins? Cost, cost, cost…
 Hybrid Prius vs. regular Prius: cost penalty = $3000 (2006
data Car & Driver, Financial Times) about enough to pay
off at $3-4/gallon without interest.
 About $2000 of the $3000 is for small fast battery, currently
nickel hydride less than 1kwh.
 $1,000-$2,000 tax incentive per car, for the first million
hybrids from each manufacturer, essential to speed of
development, becoming cheaper, in US.
 Outside the US, higher gas price bigger market now, but
subsidized gasoline prices in China cheaper than US.

33. The view from Morgan-Stanley
 “We see lithium-ion PHEVs today as akin to
MP3 players in 1998. They are likely to
revolutionize the automobile as we know it,
but it is still unclear who will develop the
equivalent of the iPOD.”
 Projected battery costs: $4,025 for 7kwh (20
miles all-electric) , $5,585 for 14kwh (GM
Volt)
 www.vvcars.com/pdf/PHEV_MorganStanley.pdf
March 11, 2008

34. What would accelerate plug-ins most?
 Toyota response December 4, 2008:
– Permanent tax incentives (not just 4 years)
– Promote recharge posts everywhere (cuts fuel use in half
again, energy security, attracts consumer)
– Standards for recharge posts – quicker recharge,
compatability, eventually V2G
Dr. Abe, leads all of
Toyota hybrid, plug-in
& electric car
development
Me
Prof. Toshio Fukuda

35. 3. $20-$40/ton to sequester CO2
 In 2009, USDA testified in detail to US senate, but
great ideas did not make it to EPW/EPA bills.
 Some experts like Lovelock and Amory Lovins say
that more CO2 sequestration in agriculture could
solve all our net GHG problem at this kind of cost.
 Of course, we don’t know, but why not let a fair
market with USDA testing validation requirements
find out how far they can get with suitable CO2
price!?
 Biochar, terra preta, solid waste of livestock, fish
food or cement and aggregate from CCR? TRY!!!

36. Saving ozone in stratosphere may be most urgent
need if H2S starts outgassing from ocean, but acid 1st.
4

37. 5. New Directions for Research
 Deep ocean oxygen: how far are we from the risk?
– Update that Deep Arctic water map and rate estimate
– Use advanced AI to model “4D” time-series, with crrect
use of probabilities (see www.Werbos.com/Erdos.pdf)
– New data on “polynyas” bring O2 to deep water
 “In aquaria”: map what chemical, temperature and
other critical factors allow propagation of H2S
producing archaea.
 Model these factors, under multiple scenarios.
 Model possible new type of Gulf Stream cutoff.
 Needs to be more crossdisciplinary, international.