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Stories to Watch 2019 #STW19

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Now in its 16th year, Stories to Watch is a go-to event for policymakers, business leaders, and media in Washington, DC and around the world. Learn more at http://www.wri.org/stw19

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Stories to Watch 2019 #STW19

  1. 1. POVERTY FALLING Image: Flickr/Allie_Caulfield 25 million people lifted out of extreme poverty in 2018
  2. 2. BUT, INEQUALITY RISING Image: Flickr/Allie_Caulfield Richest 42 people = poorest 3.7 billion people
  3. 3. ECONOMIC VOLATILITY Source: Webfg.com
  4. 4. A SEASON OF DISCONTENT Image: Shutterstock
  5. 5. COALITIONS FALL APART Image: Flickr/Arno Mikkor (EU2017EE) Brexit deadline: March 29, 2019
  6. 6. OLD RULES DON’T APPLY Image: Associated Press
  7. 7. WHO COMES NEXT AT WORLD BANK? Image: Wikimedia Commons/Koch / MSC
  8. 8. GLOBAL EMISSIONS ON THE RISE Source: Global Carbon Project
  9. 9. GLOBAL EMISSIONS ON THE RISE Source: Global Carbon Project / Rhodium Group 2018 US emissions rose 3.4% — biggest increase since 2010
  10. 10. MORE EXTREME EVENTS Image: Cpl. Dylan Chagnon
  11. 11. THE PROBLEM IS CLEAR… Image: IISD/ENB | Sean Wu Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 Degrees
  12. 12. …SO IS THE OPPORTUNITY Image: REUTERS/Rupak De Chowdhuri $26 trillion gain through to 2030
  13. 13. PROGRESS IN POLAND Image: IISD/ENB | Sean Wu
  14. 14. BRAZIL MOVES RIGHT… Image: Flickr/Neil Palmer/CIAT
  15. 15. …MEXICO MOVES LEFT Image: Flickr/Presidencia de la República Mexicana
  16. 16. TRANSITION IN GERMANY Image: bilderseo.com
  17. 17. ELECTIONS IN INDONESIA… Image: Flickr/uyeah
  18. 18. …AND IN INDIA Image: Flickr/DIRCO
  19. 19. CANADA INTRODUCES CARBON TAX Image: U.S. Air Force, Senior Airman Joshua R. M. Dewberry
  20. 20. CHINA’S ECONOMY SLOWS Image: kremlin.ru
  21. 21. WILL LEADERS STEP UP AT UN SUMMIT? Image: Flickr/jST. WHAT TO WATCH: September 2019
  22. 22. GREEN CLIMATE FUND REPLENISHMENT: AMBITION AND REFORM? Image: Flickr/German Development Institute WHAT TO WATCH: October 2019
  23. 23. WILL ACTION OUTPACE POLITICS? Image: Flickr/Steven Vance WHAT TO WATCH: 500+ companies take action through Science Based Targets Maersk set a net zero CO2 target by 2050
  24. 24. ADAPTATION ISN’T A NEW CONCEPT Image: Flickr/Tom Gill 2001 IPCC 3rd ASSESSMENT: Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability UNFCCC COP 7: National Adaptation Programmes of Action
  25. 25. CLIMATE IMPACTS ARE HERE NOW Image: Flickr/Asian Development Bank Extreme climate- related disasters DOUBLED since early 1990s
  26. 26. Image: Wikimedia/NASA STRONGER STORMS Ten Category 5 cyclones in 2018 2nd highest total on record
  27. 27. Image: istockphoto 157 million more people exposed to heat related health risks in 2017 than 2000 HOTTER DAYS
  28. 28. PHOTO: FLICKR/ FOREST SERVICE, USDA Image: Flickr/Forest Service, USDA FIERCER FIRES In California, a record 1.6 million acres burned in 2018
  29. 29. Image: Flickr/Vandan Desai LONGER DROUGHTS In Bundelkhand, India ~2 million farmers migrated since last year
  30. 30. HIGHER SEAS Image: Flickr/NPS Climate Change Response Sea-level rise from 1993-2015 nearly 3x faster than in previous century
  31. 31. EVERY FRACTION OF A DEGREE MATTERS
  32. 32. POOREST HIT HARDEST Image: Flickr/UNICEF Ethiopia Power to push 100 million people into poverty in next 15 years
  33. 33. THERE ARE BRIGHT SPOTS… Image: Flickr/A'Melody Lee / World Bank Resilient tea and coffee production in Rwanda
  34. 34. Image: Flickr/Reg Natarajan Making adaptation a development priority in Colombia
  35. 35. Image: Flickr/M. Moers Keeping the sea at bay at the port of Rotterdam
  36. 36. …BUT, IT ISN’T ADDING UP Image: Flickr/Tony Armstrong-Sly • Global leadership scarce • Perceived as too complicated • Lack of metrics • Benefits long-term and not always visible • Insufficient finance
  37. 37. GLOBAL COMMISSION ON ADAPTATION LAUNCHED IN OCTOBER 2018 Kristalina Georgieva Bill GatesBan Ki-moon
  38. 38. COMMISSION CONVENED BY 17 COUNTRIES
  39. 39. ACCELERATING ADAPTATION Image: Global Commission on Adaptation/Igor Roefofsen Three major deliverables: • Flagship report • Action Tracks • Year of Action
  40. 40. WHAT TO WATCH: MAKING THE CASE FOR ADAPTATION? Image: Flickr/United Nations Photo September 2019 Launch of Global Commission’s Flagship Report
  41. 41. WHAT TO WATCH: OVERCOMING FINANCIAL BARRIERS? Image: Flickr/Ryan Up to $300 billion needed annually by 2030 World Bank will direct half their climate investments to adaptation
  42. 42. WHAT TO WATCH: GROWING RESILIENCE IN AGRICULTURE? Image: Wikimedia Commons Three-quarters of world’s poorest get food and income from farming small plots of land
  43. 43. WHAT TO WATCH: WILL CITIES CHAMPION ADAPTATION? Image: Flickr/Maria Eklind October 2019 Copenhagen C40 Mayors Summit
  44. 44. CLOTHING PRODUCTION SURGING Image: Flickr/Francisco Anzola • Fashion industry worth $1.3 trillion • Employs 300 million people
  45. 45. FASHION GETTING FASTER... Image: Flickr/Toshihiro Gamo • Average consumer purchases 60% more clothing compared to 2000 • Up to 50 “microseasons”
  46. 46. …AND LEAVING A TRAIL OF WASTE Image: Kevin Krejci/Wikimedia Commons • Every second, one garbage truck of textiles is landfilled or burned • Clothes release 500,000 tons of microfibers in the ocean each year = more than 50 billion plastic bottles
  47. 47. WATER STRESS AND POLLUTION
  48. 48. BAD LABOR PRACTICES Image: ILO/Asrian Mirza • Forced child labor in more than 10 countries in 2018 • Half of workers in main textile manufacturing countries not paid minimum wage
  49. 49. CIRCULAR BUSINESS MODELS ON THE RISE
  50. 50. FASHION DISRUPTORS ENTERING THE FRAY Image: Liz Cook • Rent the Runway subscribers up 150% since 2017 • $173 million invested in The RealReal
  51. 51. FABRIC INNOVATIONS Image: Flickr/Patrick Giblin • Lab-grown leather • Fruit fibers • Recovered plastic • Advances in recycling
  52. 52. WILL THE FASHION INDUSTRY FOLLOW THROUGH? Image: Flickr/Nic Raingsey WHAT TO WATCH: • 40+ companies signed Fashion Industry Charter for Climate Action • March 2019 UN Alliance on Sustainable Fashion
  53. 53. WILL FASHION COMPANIES IMPROVE TRANSPARENCY? Image: ILO/Aaron Santos WHAT TO WATCH: Sustainable Apparel Coalition launching beta platform for reporting May 2019 Science Based Targets guidance for apparel and footwear
  54. 54. WILL EUROPE LEAD ON SUSTAINABLE FASHION? Image: Flickr/Lorenzoclick WHAT TO WATCH: Spring 2019 European circular fashion regulations
  55. 55. HOW WILL EMERGING ECONOMIES RESPOND? Image: Flickr/Chris Yunker WHAT TO WATCH: Used clothing import ban in East Africa
  56. 56. SUSTAINABLE FASHION: FRINGE OR THE NEXT WAVE? Image: Flickr/Jason Hargrove WHAT TO WATCH:
  57. 57. COMMODITY-DRIVEN DEFORESTATION AN URGENT ISSUE Source: Global Forest Watch
  58. 58. “BIG FOUR” COMMODITIES: $260+ BILLION IN EXPORTS Source: Forest500.org
  59. 59. HIGH COST OF COMMODITIES Image: lyzadanger/Wikimedia Commons Tropical forest loss: • Nearly 50% driven by commodity production • 3rd largest source of carbon emissions
  60. 60. ~500 COMPANIES COMMITTED TO CURB DEFORESTATION 58% of major commodities companies have a forest commitment
  61. 61. BUT, IMPACT IS ELUSIVE Image: Nanang Sujana/CIFOR • Lack of credible reporting • Not all actors involved
  62. 62. TROPICAL TREE COVER LOSS: OUT OF CONTROL Source: Global Forest Watch
  63. 63. LIVES AT RISK Image: Flickr/pato chavez Environmental defenders killed at a rate of 4 per week
  64. 64. HOW WILL GOVERNMENTS RESPOND? Image: Flickr/oneVillage Initiative WHAT TO WATCH: • Will EU enforce roadmap to end deforestation? • How will Bolsonaro’s policies play out in Brazil? • Will Indonesia’s progress continue?
  65. 65. WILL COMPANIES DOUBLE DOWN ON 2020 COMMITMENTS? Image: Mokhamad Edliadi/CIFOR WHAT TO WATCH: May 2019 Tropical Forest Alliance Assembly in Colombia
  66. 66. WILL BETTER MONITORING PROMOTE PROGRESS? Image: Flickr/European Space Agency WHAT TO WATCH: • GFW Pro Launch • Satellite Monitoring • Accountability Framework
  67. 67. WILL SPOTLIGHT ON BIODIVERSITY ADD PRESSURE? Image: Flickr/European Space Agency WHAT TO WATCH: 2020 Beijing Biodiversity COP
  68. 68. WHAT IS THE BELT AND ROAD?
  69. 69. FAR-REACHING IMPLICATIONS Source: MERICS
  70. 70. “THE PROJECT OF THE CENTURY” Note: There is no timeline associated with China’s commitments
  71. 71. CHINA PUSHES FOR AN ECOLOGICAL CIVILIZATION Image: UN Photo/Loey Felipe “Green Belt and Road…incorporates eco- environment protection into all aspects and whole process of Belt and Road” Guidance on Promoting Green Belt and Road
  72. 72. BUT, ENERGY INVESTMENTS AREN’T ALIGNED WITH CLIMATE GOALS Note: Fossil Fuels include Oil, Gas, Petrochemical, and Fossil Fuel Generation
  73. 73. LAND USE CONCERNS Image: Flickr/ Neil Turner | Source: WWF 1,739 key biodiversity areas in BRI route
  74. 74. WILL BELT AND ROAD FORUM PRODUCE SUSTAINABILITY GUIDELINES? Image: The Russian Presidential Press and Information Office/Wikimedia Commons WHAT TO WATCH:
  75. 75. WILL CHINA RAMP UP RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENTS ABROAD? Image: Flickr/Seungho L WHAT TO WATCH: $470+ billion Renewable energy investment needs by 2030 in BRI countries
  76. 76. WILL NATIONAL CLIMATE PLANS INFORM BRI INVESTMENTS? Image: Flickr/Moign Khawaja WHAT TO WATCH:
  77. 77. MICROMOBILITY: TAKING OFF AROUND THE WORLD
  78. 78. A COMPELLING CHOICE Image: Flickr/VincentJames21 60% of all trips in U.S. are less than 6 miles
  79. 79. SCOOTERS ACHIEVE UNICORN STATUS Image: BIRD Bird is fastest startup ever to reach $1 billion valuation
  80. 80. BUT…
  81. 81. THIS… Image: EvasiveMobile/WikimediaCommons
  82. 82. AND THIS… Image: Flickr/Slices of Light
  83. 83. THE NEXT SEGWAY? Image: Flickr/Pete Ashton
  84. 84. WILL MORE BIG COMPANIES MOVE IN? Image: Flickr/Luis Tamayo WHAT TO WATCH: • Ford acquires e-scooter and bikeshare company Spin • Uber and Lyft add scooters and bikes • General Motors designing electric bikes for 2019
  85. 85. HOW WILL CITIES REGULATE? WHAT TO WATCH: • Permits and pricing • Reduce oversaturation • Improve safety Image: Pixabay
  86. 86. LAUNCH OF THE NEW URBAN MOBILITY ALLIANCE WHAT TO WATCH: Image: Shutterstock
  87. 87. RETHINKING CITY STREETS? WHAT TO WATCH: Image: Flickr/Dylan Passmore
  88. 88. TRUMP ADMINISTRATION CONTINUES ENVIRONMENTAL ATTACKS Image: Flickr/Tim Evanson Efforts to roll back 70+ environmental safeguards
  89. 89. CITIES, STATES & COMPANIES FORGE AHEAD
  90. 90. MIDTERMS: NEXT WAVE OF CLIMATE LEADERS Image: Rachael Warriner/Sunrise Movement Green New Deal sparks debate
  91. 91. MIDTERMS: MORE MOMENTUM IN THE STATES Image: Flickr/Tom Brewster Photography 10 new governors with clean energy platforms
  92. 92. 29 STATES ALREADY HAVE RENEWABLE ENERGY STANDARDS WHAT TO WATCH:
  93. 93. 6 STATES GO FURTHER WITH 50–100% CLEAN ENERGY TARGETS WHAT TO WATCH:
  94. 94. WILL MORE STATES ADOPT AMBITIOUS TARGETS? WHAT TO WATCH:
  95. 95. WHAT ACTION WILL WE SEE FROM U.S. CLIMATE ALLIANCE? WHAT TO WATCH:
  96. 96. WILL MORE UTILITIES GET AHEAD OF THE CURVE? Image: Flickr/nmmacedo WHAT TO WATCH: Xcel Energy: Carbon-free by 2050 DTE Energy, Consumers Energy: 80% carbon reduction by 2050 Will other major utilities follow suit?
  97. 97. WILL MORE STATES ADOPT CARBON PRICING? Image: Flickr/Consumers Energy WHAT TO WATCH: • New Jersey to rejoin RGGI • Virginia to cap power sector • Oregon to adopt economy- wide carbon price? • Who’s next?
  98. 98. WHAT ABOUT TRANSPORTATION? Image: Flickr/VDOT WHAT TO WATCH: • Transport largest source of U.S. GHG emissions • 9 Northeast & Mid-Atlantic states design program to cap and reduce transport emissions
  99. 99. WILL ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET CONTINUE TO GROW? WHAT TO WATCH: Source: InsideEVs.com US EV sales jumped 81% in 2018
  100. 100. WHAT WILL CONGRESS DO? Image: Flickr/wbeem WHAT TO WATCH: • Support for carbon pricing? • Infrastructure deal? • More funding for clean technologies?
  101. 101. WILL GROWING CLIMATE MOVEMENT EXPAND WHAT’S POSSIBLE? Image: Whitehouse.gov WHAT TO WATCH: “The people are ahead of the Congress. The Congress must join them.” –Speaker Nancy Pelosi
  102. 102. WHAT ABOUT 2020 CONTENDERS? Image: Gage Skidmore/Wikimedia Commons WHAT TO WATCH:
  103. 103. TREATY OF VERSAILLES
  104. 104. LEAGUE OF NATIONS
  105. 105. MAHATMA GANDHI BEGINS NONVIOLENT RESISTANCE AGAINST BRITISH RULE
  106. 106. GRAND CANYON DESIGNATED A NATIONAL PARK
  107. 107. FIRST TRANS-ATLANTIC NONSTOP FLIGHT
  108. 108. FIRST POP-UP TOASTER

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