Tourism and Climate Change: Issues, Trends and Solutions

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Tourism and Climate Change: Issues, Trends and Solutions

  1. 1. Tourism and Climate Change: Issues, Trends and Solutions Presentation to PNWER Summit, 2008, Vancouver, July 22, 2008 Anna Pollock, Executive Consultant, Environmental Services Inter VISTAS Consulting Inc.
  2. 2. Paper available from: www.theicarusfoundation.com Background Resource
  3. 3. The Science Tourism is both a victim and a contributor to climate change Tourism: Is it part of the problem or the solution? Dr. Pachauri, Head of IPCC & Co-winner of Nobel Peace Prize
  4. 4. What’s at Stake? Tourism in PWNER
  5. 5. Tourism in Pacific Northwest USA Source: TIA: www.poweroftravel.org SPENDING (Billion) TAX (billion) EMPLOYMENT PAYROLL (billion) ALASKA $ 1.6 $.271 23,500 $0.681 WASHINGTON $10.1 $1.7 104,700 $2.5 OREGON $ 6.7 $0.9 77,700 $1.5 IDAHO $ 2.7 $0.428 22,400 $0.392 MONTANA $ 2.4 $0.261 26,000 $0.375 TOTAL $23.5 $3.597 254,300 $5.461
  6. 6. Tourism in Western Canada SPENDING (Billion) TAX (billion) EMPLOYMENT British Columbia $ 9.8 266,000 Alberta $ 5.3 180,000 Yukon $ 0.164 1900 Saskatchewan $ 1.4 60,000 TOTAL $16.54 507,000
  7. 7. Tourism as Clusters, as Network Source: Oregon Strategic Plan
  8. 8. Employment Revenues Taxes Talent Community rejuvenation Environmental Stewardship 1960s 1980s 1990s 2010+ Changing Role & Value of Tourism
  9. 9. What do members have in common? Tourism in PWNER
  10. 10. Adventure, Eco, Nature, Wildlife <ul><li>Wildlife viewing worth $1 billion in Washington state </li></ul><ul><li>Wilderness tourism generated $1.5 billion in direct and indirect spend in British Columbia, supported 2200 businesses </li></ul><ul><li>High yield, affluent, educated clientele </li></ul>
  11. 11. Market Appeal
  12. 12. Market Appeal
  13. 13. Market Appeal
  14. 14. Market Appeal
  15. 15. Market Appeal
  16. 16. Market Appeal
  17. 17. Ecological Diversity
  18. 18. Population Growth & Change
  19. 19. Tourism Growth In Washington state, travel spending has increased annually between 2002 and 2007 .
  20. 20. Optimism
  21. 21. Fragility <ul><li>These plus 22 other mammals and 540 other species are at significant risk of extinction in BC </li></ul>
  22. 22. Climate Change Eco-Literacy
  23. 23. Global Carbon Emissions
  24. 24. Global Carbon Concentrations
  25. 25. Global Temperatures Rising
  26. 26. Just how warm do we want to be? <ul><li>&quot;If warming is not kept below two degrees centigrade, substantial global impacts will occur, such as species extinctions, and millions of people will be at risk from drought, hunger, flooding.“ </li></ul><ul><li>International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) </li></ul>+ 2°C (+ 0.6 °)
  27. 27. A Matter of Urgency <ul><li>If there is no action before 2012, it’s too late. What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment. </li></ul>
  28. 28. Source of the Problem
  29. 29. Wild Cards & Positive Feedback Loops <ul><li>Attitude of humility needed </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Albedo effect </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Methane </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Deforestation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ocean currents </li></ul></ul>
  30. 30. It’s Getting Worse Not Better
  31. 31. It’s Getting Worse Not Better Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), published October 25, 2007
  32. 32. Earth’s waste absorption capacity deteriorating Natural sinks absorb 5 billions tons of CO 2 globally every year, or 55% of all anthropogenic carbon emissions. Value= €0.5 trillion 18% loss of efficiency
  33. 33. The West is Particularly Vulnerable When compared to the 20 th Century average, the West has experienced an increase in average temperature during the last 5 years that is 70% greater than the world as a whole. NRDC, March 2008
  34. 34. Scope of Impacts on Business
  35. 35. Physical Impacts
  36. 36. Precipitation
  37. 37. Landscapes
  38. 38. Business Viability <ul><li>Loss of business </li></ul><ul><li>Risk Management </li></ul><ul><li>Cost control </li></ul><ul><li>Increased insurance </li></ul><ul><li>Adaptation expenses </li></ul>
  39. 39. Convergence of Threats
  40. 40. Growing Public Concern
  41. 41. Traveling with a Guilty Conscious? <ul><li>&quot;Making selfish choices such as flying on holiday or buying a large car are a symptom of sin.” </li></ul><ul><li>– &quot;Sin is not just a restricted list of moral mistakes. It is living a life turned in on itself where people ignore the consequences of their actions.&quot; </li></ul><ul><li>- Richard Chartre </li></ul><ul><li>Bishop of London </li></ul>
  42. 42. Changing Consumer Values <ul><li>2007 the tipping point in consumer awareness </li></ul><ul><li>One trip from England to New Zealand burns 60% more carbon than a trip to Scotland – will this affect travel patterns? </li></ul><ul><li>43 million US travellers are concerned about green issues </li></ul><ul><li>24% said air travel should be avoided to help preserve the environment </li></ul><ul><li>26% would pay a premium of up to 10% for an eco-friendly flight </li></ul><ul><li>Still not clear how much behavior is changing as only 3% however, have purchased carbon ‘off-sets ’ </li></ul>
  43. 43. Changing Business Travel Patterns <ul><li>Big business is acting quickly </li></ul><ul><li>All public companies required to disclose carbon footprint as part of its CSR report </li></ul><ul><li>Companies with huge travel budgets like PWC, Siemens etc are targeting a 20% reduction in air travel for each staff member. </li></ul><ul><li>Green meetings and Incentive travel next to be seriously affected </li></ul><ul><li>Reducing internally first, then delving into supply chain </li></ul>
  44. 44. What’s the Cure? Reduce 25% of 1990 levels by 2020 Reduce 80% of 1990 levels by 2050
  45. 45. Government Responses <ul><li>Reduction Targets – all levels of government </li></ul><ul><li>BC’s new carbon tax </li></ul><ul><li>The EU plans to add aviation to its Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) starting in 2012 for intra-EU flights and all flights departing from or arriving in the EU </li></ul><ul><li>Cap & trade legislation inevitable regionally if not nationally </li></ul><ul><li>Starting in 2009, the UK intends to replace air passenger duty with a “per flight” tax based on carbon emissions </li></ul>
  46. 46. Source: UNWTO, 2007 Tourism’s Contribution Sub-Sectors CO 2 (Mt) Air transport 522 40% Car transport 418 32% Other transport 39 3% Accommodation 274 21% Activities 52 4% TOTAL 1,307 100% Total World (IPCC 2007) 26,400 Tourism Contribution 5 %
  47. 47. Growth vs Emissions Reductions Volume Growth 4 x increase 1990-2020 Emissions Reductions 25% reduction, 1990-2020
  48. 48. So How is Tourism Perceived as Responding? <ul><li>Poorly! </li></ul>
  49. 49. So How is Tourism Responding?
  50. 50. PREPAREDNESS Low High RISK High Low Source: KPMG Transport, Tourism, Aviation in Danger Zone
  51. 51. National or Regional Carbon Footprints
  52. 52. Whistler’s Carbon Footprint <ul><ul><li>Aviation emissions account for ~78% of all emissions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Internal GHG reductions dwarfed by air travel emissions </li></ul></ul>Source: Energy Information Administration Visitor Travel to/from Whistler Whistler’s CO2 Emissions 2030 ~ 14% ~ 86% Internal
  53. 53. Aviation Emissions Growing Faster than Total Emissions US CO2 Emissions Annualized Growth Rate 1980 - 2004 2.0% 1.6% 0.9% Sources: US Bureau of Transportation Statistics National Transportation Statistics 2007 and OECD
  54. 54. Some Good News – Efficiency Gains Source: US Bureau of Transportation Statistics National Transportation Statistics 2007 . CAGR: -1.9% US Domestic Aviation CO2 Emissions per Passenger Mile 1980 – 2004
  55. 55. From Winglets to? Source: Airliners.net http://www.airliners.net/open.file/1060096/L/
  56. 56. From Oil to Algae
  57. 57. However, Rapid Growth in Air Travel Source: US Bureau of Transportation Statistics National Transportation Statistics 2007 . CAGR: 4.0% US Domestic Air Travel 1980 - 2004
  58. 58. Total Emissions Continue to Climb … Source: US Bureau of Transportation Statistics National Transportation Statistics 2007 . CAGR: 2.0% US Domestic Aviation CO2 Emissions 1980 - 2004
  59. 59. The Future – A Larger Share of a Larger Pie <ul><ul><li>Aviation emissions will increase 65% by 2030 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Total emissions will increase by 25% by 2030 </li></ul></ul>Source: Energy Information Administration US CO2 Emissions 2005 vs. 2030 2005 2030 ~ 4% ~ 5.5% Aviation Aviation
  60. 60. Aviation Impact varies…London Source: London Climate Action Plan 2007
  61. 61. Climate Change – A Blessing? <ul><li>“ Climate change is the synthesis of all other environmental issues; energy inefficiency, pollution, species extinction, water use, desertification, urban sprawl…many of the most pressing environmental issues are related intimately to the problem of climate change” Canadian Environmental Grantmaker’s Network </li></ul>
  62. 62. Reaching a Target – takes an ARROW! <ul><li>A ssess </li></ul><ul><li>R educe Carbon, Waste and Cost </li></ul><ul><li>R enewable Energy </li></ul><ul><li>O ffset the balance </li></ul><ul><li>W in over governments, customers, employees and investors – tell positive stories </li></ul>
  63. 63. The PNWER Opportunity? <ul><li>In a global market, the region has more to gain from solving this issue together than by going solo. </li></ul><ul><li>We depend on each other more than we realize. </li></ul><ul><li>There is an urgent need to collaborate and share. </li></ul><ul><li>PWNER could be the catalyst and enabler for that collaboration </li></ul><ul><li>Common methodologies, standard measurements, educational tools, information resources. </li></ul>
  64. 64. What can and must tourism do? <ul><li>Play its part in reducing its carbon footprint </li></ul><ul><li>Recognize its past growth has been based on relatively cheap or zero input costs </li></ul><ul><li>Adjust to the fact that there are physical limits imposed by the very nature we use to promote our business </li></ul><ul><li>Prepare for a low carbon economy </li></ul><ul><li>Develop practical but honest sustainable strategies that a). reduce impacts; and b). increase yields. </li></ul><ul><li>Re-frame growth in terms of value – stop selling our land and ourselves short. </li></ul>
  65. 65. The InterVISTAS Group <ul><li>InterVISTAS Consulting </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Vancouver, Ottawa, Winnipeg, Montr éal </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>InterVISTAS-ga2 </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Washington DC, Chicago </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>InterVISTAS-EU </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>London </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Aviation, Tourism consulting </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>70 team members </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Broad range of marketing, security, facilitation, planning, economics and environmental services </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Sustainable Tourism Strategies for Destinations & enterprises </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Carbon audits </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Contact </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Joe Kelly Anna Pollock [email_address] [email_address] </li></ul></ul>

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