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WVF InvVest SEI 8-27-09

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Presentation by invVEST CEO Probir Ghosh at the New Energy Economy event, sponsored by the Women's Vision Foundation.

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WVF InvVest SEI 8-27-09

  1. 1. <ul><ul><li>Why Renewable Energy? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Turning Economic Crisis into Opportunity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>INVESTING FOR A SAFE & SUSTAINABLE FUTURE FOR OUR VERY NEXT GENERATION </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>BY PROBIR GHOSH </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>PRESIDENT & CEO*, INVVEST </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>WWW.INVVEST.ORG </li></ul></ul>* Chief Enabling Officer All the Contents of this presentation are VSNI Proprietary and are loaned to invVEST for the sole purpose of enabling Massive Scaling of SEI.
  2. 2. OUR VISION: Enabling Massive Scale* Sustainable Energy Initiatives will generate the next vibrant economy while protecting our planet for future generations to enjoy. Together, We can. inv VEST Sole Purpose : to Enable Global Leadership for USA in Sustainable Energy Initiatives (SEI) through Massive Scaling*. We need to lead by example. * inv VEST Massive Scaling Stretch Goal: At least 60% of energy generated from SEI by 2030. inv VEST: inv est in E nergy that’s S ustainable thru’ V irtual collaborative T eams Reality Check: USA is lagging significantly behind Europe in SEI, despite creating most of the innovations. Energy is the lifeblood of developed economies, And therefore, America is at an inflection point. We may be giving up overall global leadership before we know it.
  3. 3. Existing Low Carbon Footprint Energy, Hydro, Biomass, Nuclear Emerging Low Carbon Footprint Energy, Wind, Solar, Geo Thermal, Tidal, other.. 2007 : Before Fossils Fuel Energy based Economy in USA EIA Data 2030: Status Quo in USA: Going Through the Motions Catastrophic Energy Security & Supply Climate Impact Crisis 95% probability Current Trend Fossil Fuels High Carbon Footprint Energy, Oil, Gas & Coal 2030 : Stretch Goal in USA: After Energy Makeover invVEST Initiative Safe & Sustainable Economy thru’ Clean Sustainable Energy for our Next Generation 95% probability Trend Needed The Big Picture The Over Simplified Version
  4. 4. Specific Initiatives for inv VEST SEI Initiative 1 Breakthrough Solar Initiative Initiative 2 Energy Efficiency & Conservation Initiatives 1%/yr until 2020 Initiative 3 Education Community & Citizens collaborative Involvement in invVEST initiatives Will strongly influence speed & savings
  5. 5. Initiative II: Energy Efficiency & Conservation * Extrapolated, need to have real data Country USA State Colorado County Boulder* Community Superior* Population 307M 5.1M 400K 12,000 GDP $13.5 T $241B $22B $780M Energy Usage 29.5T kWh 490B kWh 38B kWh 1.1B kWh 1% Energy Saved in next 12 months 295B kWh 4.9B kWh 0.38B kWh 11 M kWh Approximate $ Value Energy saved $30B $500M $40M $1.2M Investment Required With avg. 7 years ROI $210B $3.5B $280M $8.4M Energy Saved in 2020 $360B $6B $480M $14.4M Jobs Created $ Value $105B $1.75B $140M $4.2M Jobs in 2010 2.1M 35,000 2,800 84
  6. 6. Initiative II + III: Energy Efficiency & Conservation combined with Education Community Involvement to Create Awareness & Behavior Change through Education * Extrapolated, need to have real data Country USA State Colorado County Boulder* Community Superior* Population 307M 5.1M 400K 12,000 GDP $13.5 T $241B $22B $780M Energy Usage 29.5T kWh 490B kWh 38B kWh 1.1B kWh 1% Energy Saved in next 12 months 295B kWh 4.9B kWh 0.38B kWh 11 M kWh Approximate $ Value Energy saved $30B $500M $40M $1.2M Reduced Investment projected With avg. 5 years ROI $150B $2.5B $200M $6.0M Education & invVEST Collaborative Program Funding $30B $500M $40M ?? Energy Saved in 2020 $360B $6B $480M $14.4M Jobs Created $ Value $90B $1.5B $120M $3.6M Jobs in 2010 1.8M 30,000 2400 72
  7. 7. <ul><li>THE EDUCATION COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT: Plan of Action. </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li>1 . Energy Awareness, knowledge leading to behavior changes & SEI Critical Skills. </li></ul><ul><li>Joint initiatives between Schools & Universities & invVEST </li></ul><ul><li>Pilots, leading to JOINTprograms </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Embedding SEI into K-12 curriculum & practices, informal leading to formal </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sharing best practices in schools & community colleges </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Collaborating with communities through schools </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Collaborating with other Universities & Colleges </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Participating with County, State & Federal programs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Interacting with NREL, DOE to scale & integrate application developments in SEI </li></ul></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li>2. Joint education programs WITH ambassadors of invVEST Workforce Training </li></ul><ul><ul><li>As part of core or elective curriculum </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Special Exec Certification Programs, 1 week overview </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>One day overview programs & workshops </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Specialized Areas </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Technology integration, business operation & ramping up. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Business Planning & Financing options </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Ethics, Citizenship, Behavior and Awareness Initiatives through knowledge & education </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>   </li></ul><ul><li>3. Other Ideas that will lead to massive scaling & mutual opportunities. </li></ul>Collaborative SEI Education & Training programs roll out will start by Mid September Please visit www.invVEST.org for details and links to many other resources on SEI.
  8. 8. “ Imagine a Handoff, Clean Sustainable Energy Fueling our next generation’s economy, curing our environment… Thank You If you believe in the invVEST Cause Please Join & Support us Spread the word Visit us at www.invVEST.org
  9. 9. Global Energy Overview
  10. 10. 348 678 552 462 57% 41% 24.4% 16.8% 23% 7.8% <ul><li>Two major shifts for Energy Consumption based on current trends: </li></ul><ul><li>As more people reach middleclass status, non OECD countries will consume 59% energy by 2030, a 2.7X increase in 40 years. </li></ul><ul><li>China becomes the largest energy consumer by 2012 & by 2030 will consume 23%of total global energy </li></ul>
  11. 11. The Challenge: Stretch Goals to achieve Massive Scaling or prepare for steep Energy Descent 0 AD 3000 AD 2000 AD 1000 AD 4000 AD Petroleum Gas Coal All Fossil Fuels Stretch Massive Scaling SEI proposed by invVEST Business As Usual SEI The Energy Transitions Model If we fail to Massively Scale SEI Life as we know now will completely change Petroleum, Gas, Coal and Sustainable Energy Initiatives (SEI) USA Energy Viewed in a Time Wrap Adapted from Transitions Handbook by Rob Hopkins 2008 2007 USA Energy Consumption 106 Q Btu/yr The historic: America Reacts to Crisis Model, the price next few generations has to pay
  12. 12. EIA Projections as of one year ago Status Quo Energy leading to Escalating Resource Wars & Terrorism Potentially Non Reversible Climate Change <5% confidence level for avoiding catastrophic crisis stemming from energy usage & climate change invVEST Initiative: a possible scenario I: Solar Breakthrough Successful Massive Scaling of SEI Portfolio (in this case, a solar break through scenario fueled by Disruptive Scaling & Solar Price lower than Coal by 2020 ) Energy Makeover for Safe & Sustainable Planet for our Future Generation >95% confidence level for avoiding catastrophic crisis stemming from energy usage & climate change Before After… invVEST Stretch Goal: >60% from clean & economical Sustainable Energy by 2030 through Massive Scaling to increase the probability (>95%) of a safe and economically viable planet for our next generation 2030 2009 2030 2009 oil coal Gas Oil, Coal, Gas
  13. 13. Historic data invVEST Projections
  14. 14. 1800 AD 2100 AD 2000 AD 1900 AD 2200 AD If we fail to Massively Scale SEI Life as we know now will completely change In the absence of Massive Sustainable Energy Initiatives (SEI) Global Energy & Population Viewed in a Time Warp 2008 2 B 10 B 8 B 6 B 4 B 600 450 300 150 Global Population Trend with Abundant Energy Potential Global Population Trend With Sharp Energy Descent A milder version of James Lovelock scenario 95% Confidence Level Fossil Fuel Crisis & Climate Change impact Current USA Population 305M: 4% of world USA 17% Rest of OECD 24% Rest of Non OECD 36% China 23% 2030 1990 5% Confidence Level Fossil Fuel Optimist & no Climate Change impact EIA data Q Btu Our Kids Lifetime
  15. 15. <ul><li>Adapting Charles Dickens… </li></ul><ul><li>“ It can be the worst of times, It can be the best of times..” </li></ul><ul><li>For the developed & developing countries & societies… </li></ul><ul><li>Energy is the lifeblood, we just need to change the way we create it </li></ul><ul><li>Massive Scaling of Sustainable Energy Initiatives is the only way out. </li></ul><ul><li>Those who lead the way, will get the lion’s share of the </li></ul><ul><li>to 40 Trillion dollar opportunity that will be created in the next 20 years. </li></ul><ul><li>So we have to inv V ES T * in our future… </li></ul><ul><li>inv V ES T vision & high level engagement plan follows… </li></ul><ul><li>inv V ES T : inv est in E nergy that’s S ustainable through </li></ul><ul><li>V i rtual collaborative T eams </li></ul>
  16. 16. Why Breakthrough Solar From Colorado’s Perspective
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  18. 18. <ul><li>USA & Germany: A Perspective: </li></ul><ul><li>Land Area: USA has 26 times more land mass & 1,000 times free/arid land space. </li></ul><ul><li>Sun Radiance: SW corner of USA (5 times larger than Germany) has 40 - 60% more sun radiance. </li></ul><ul><li>USA GDP is 4 time more than Germany </li></ul><ul><li>Yet, USA installed a mere 340MW of Solar PV compared to Germany’s 1,800MW in 2008. </li></ul><ul><li>USA should have deployed 7,500MW to be on par </li></ul><ul><li>What is wrong with this picture? </li></ul>1 KW panel Produces 1530 kWh/yr 40 -70% more Germany Solar Energy I KW panel Produces 947kWh/yr Initiative I: Break Through Solar Initiative
  19. 19. Our Future Highways: Porting energy where it can be generated at lowest cost to high population areas Initiative I: Break Through Solar Initiative invVEST Breakthrough Solar Initiative 350GW 85GW Panel Prices BOS (Balance of Systems) Prices Exponential Game Changing Growth If we can get the Public & Private Sector to work collaboratively on reducing the price of Solar Energy below power parity by 2015 The Weak Link Fundamental Technology in place. Cd Te can be The low price game. <ul><li>Massive Scaling can generate by 2030: </li></ul><ul><li>A $ 2 Trillion Solar Energy Industry </li></ul><ul><li>Aggressively bring down SEI prices </li></ul><ul><li>Create 3 Million+ Jobs </li></ul><ul><li>Colorado can be one of the Hubs </li></ul><ul><li>Breakthrough Solar initiative will save Trillions of $ for USA over the next 50 years in energy prices & environment cleanup cost </li></ul>
  20. 20. Germany has the Mindshare of All Manufacturers and Investors Globally Through a well structured long term FIT Program Current US Solar Rooftop Current US Solar On the Ground Breakthrough Solar Rooftop Breakthrough Solar On the Ground 12 Year Flex FIT Plan Get Mindshare Install 6GW in 2010 A 12X change Grow 30%+ wind
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  22. 22. Initiative I: Why Break Through Solar Initiative . Vital Statistics Country Germany Country USA State Colorado County Boulder Population 80M 307M 5.1M 400K GDP $3.5 T $13.5 T $241B $22B Solar Installed in 2008 1,800MW 340 MW 21MW 1MW? Equalized to USA GDP To match Germany 7,400 MW 123 MW 11 MW Breakthrough Solar For 2010 6,000 MW 120 MW ??? Breakthrough Solar for 2020 137 GW 18GW Investment next 7 yrs Return by 2030 $240B 1,200B Solar Revenue 2030 $1,400B $110B Savings from Oil -$50/B$ $7,000B Jobs 2030 3.8M 650,000 Collaborative Program Funding 2010 (invVEST is a subset, SW States as showcase) $70M 1.4M
  23. 23. Colorado based Renewable Energy Initiatives Boulder Denver Golden Windsor Fort Collins School of Mines CU CSU Xcel NREL abound Solar Vestas Ascent Solar Conoco Philips 2010? UCD DU RMI Governor's Aggressive Energy Initiative NREL & Governor’s Aggressive Renewable Energy Initiatives have been instrumental for spawning the industry… We now need to take it to the next level I-25 I-70 Primestar Solar More than 250 SEI based entities in Colorado and growing… Growing Opportunities for SEI savvy workforce & Management Visit www.invVEST.org Look for resources Under media center tab.
  24. 24. USA, CHINA & INDIA ENERGY USAGE & GROWTH PROFILES ARE VERY DIFFERENT IN 2008 USA 2008 CHINA 2008 USA Total Energy Consumed 100.5 Q Btu Last 10 year growth = 3.8% CHINA Total Energy, 84% of USA Consumed 84.5 Q Btu Last 10 year growth = 127% India Total Energy, 20% of USA Consumed 20.2 Q Btu Last 10 year growth = 65% INDIA 2008
  25. 25. 52% CHINA OECD EUROPE USA OECD OTHER NON OECD OTHER INDIA
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  28. 28. USA China Comparisons Absolutes Productivity
  29. 29. America Centric View on Energy: The Reluctant Giant waking up to Realities of Current Energy Usage & it’s related issues Can we respond fast enough? Or are we going to be mired in “Innovator’s Dilemma” * Do we need to be China for a day? from Hot, Flat & Crowded….by Tom Friedman * Innovator’s Dilemma by Clayton Chrisentsen.
  30. 30. &quot;Oil peaking will be catastrophic, beyond anything I have seen... We are about to drive the car over the cliff and say, `Oh my God, what have we done?’ ” Robert L. Hirsch, US Department of Energy consultant. Oil fueled rapid growth for USA, Europe & Japan & now the rest of the world (6 Billion people) wants to use it too.. The problem is we are consuming much more than we are finding Simply put, we are running out of it, even by most optimistic scenarios QBtu Our Kids Life Span
  31. 31. The Global Context View on Energy Usage Transition: Who will Lead & who will Follow?
  32. 32. “ History shows, repeatedly, that the mighty can fall. The Egyptian Old Kingdom, the Chou Dynasty, the Hittite Empire—all fell. Athens fell. Rome fell. Even Britain, which stood a century before as a global superpower, saw its position erode. Is that the U.S.'s fate? Or will America always find a way to meet Lincoln's challenge to be the last best hope of Earth?” J im Collins. Startup to the mighty Where is Wal-mart? Where is Exxon? Where is China? Where is India? WHERE ARE WE AMERICA? HOW THE MIGHTY FALL: ADPATED FROM Jim Collins Book Excerpt BusnessWeek May 25 th 2009. Google? Firstsolar? invVEST initiative: Enabling America to find a way… We cannot afford to sit by the side lines We need to take care of our very next generation’s future…
  33. 33. Proactive Response Government, Society, Technology & Markets Reactive Response Markets, Technology , Society & Government Rapid Depletion Early Peaking Slow Depletion Later Peaking “ Lean Economy” Transitions Initiative Energy Descent “ Techno Markets” Massive Scaling of SEI Clean & Low Cost Energy Vibrant Economy “ Burn-Out” Business as Usual Status Quo stick to Fossil Energy “ Collapse” Exponentially Escalating Fossil Fuel Resource Wars & Terrorism Four Energy Scenarios Adapted from Bryn Davidson: www.dynamcicities.squarespace.com
  34. 34. USA & World Economic Growth 2008 2030 2060 Time invVEST Initiative Clean AND Cheap Energy Through Massive Scaling Environment Centric Clean OR Cheap Energy Clean Energy at any cost Short Term ROI Status Quo Stick to current Energy Usage Pattern <ul><li>THE PATH WE CHOOSE FOR ENERGY SOURCE WILL SHAPE OUR DESTINY </li></ul><ul><li>FOR OUR VERY NEXT GENERATION. OUR THREE OPTIONS: </li></ul><ul><li>STAUS QUO (RESIST CHANGE) STICK TO OUR COMFORT ZONE FOSSIL FUEL USAGE </li></ul><ul><li>THE TRADITIONAL MINDSET: CLEAN ENERGY NEEDS INCREASING PRICES PERPETUALLY </li></ul><ul><li>BREAKTHROUGH MINDSET* : LOW COST CLEAN SUSTAINABLE ENERGY THRU’ MASSIVE SCALING </li></ul>“ Collapse” Global Crisis caused by: Exponentially Escalating Wars as Countries Fight for control of dwindling Fossil Fuel (OIL) And/Or Climate Disaster OPTION 1: Cling to Current Energy Use Pattern Resist Change OPTION 2: Clean Energy Increases energy costs & Has a Perpetual Premium OPTION 3: Massive Scaling drive down cost of SEI High ROI for upfront investment “ Burn-out” “ Lean Economy” -Transitions “ Techno Markets” All the Contents of this presentation are VSNI Proprietary and are loaned to invVEST for the sole purpose of enabling Massive Scaling of SEI.
  35. 35. False True No Action Action What's the Worst That Could Happen? A rational response to the climate change debate by Greg Craven. See his YouTube Video with 7 million hits http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zORv8wwiadQ Climate Change Made the right call Saved tons of Money Made the wrong call Spent tons of Money Prolonged Economic recession Made the wrong call Catastrophic Climate & Economic Disasters Armageddon Made the right call Spent tons of Money But saved the world Still leaves room for debate…
  36. 36. Not False True Insufficient Action Action to meet goals Adding Fossil Fuel Resource Crisis to Greg Craven’s Climate Change Scenario. Fossil Based Resource Dwindling + Climate Change Massive Scaling Of SEI is the only Logical action Even more so May be False? The option for not taking action goes away The age old issue Too little, too late… History is littered with Great Companies & Nations Fading into the Sunset. Massive Scaling Of SEI is the only Logical action To take care of Vanishing Fossil fuel resources Fossil Based Resource Dwindling + Climate Change True Insufficient Action Is even more catastrophic
  37. 37. WHY Massive Scaling of SEI*? PRELUDE : WHY? There is nothing wrong It is already too late 80 %+ of the Population not engaged Act Now Current SEI* initiatives in USA while showing a marked improvement from a few years ago will not get even close to protecting our next generation from the looming energy related economic crisis & be in harm’s way Are we all so wrapped up around instant gratification that we will not take care of the safety & well being of our very next future generation? HERE IS WHY …. Why we cannot be bystanders & expect the problem to go away Conversely, taking on the Global Leadership in SEI will enable USA to retain Overall global leadership position and get to a lion’s share of the 25- $40 Trillion Global Energy Market, provide Energy Security and Sustained economic growth. USA will find India can provide synergy in Energy and other areas of economy to Balance the power and have diversified sources of economic partners. * SEI: Sustainable Energy Initiatives
  38. 38. Conclusion : WHY? The basic needs for humankind: For 5+ Billion People now, it is Air, Water, Food, ….. For developed (<1B) & emerging countries middle class+ (1B now – 2B+ by 2030) Shelter..Transportation…Consumer Goods& Services.. fuels Economic growth … Energy is the lifeblood for well being & economic growth. In the last 100 years, fossil fuels Oil, Gas & Coal have contributed immensely for well being & economic growth. <ul><li>Two problems: </li></ul><ul><li>Fossil Fuels are a finite resource. We are running out of Fossil Fuels rapidly… </li></ul><ul><li>The increasing amount of GHG is contributing to climate change.. </li></ul><ul><li>We have two choices: </li></ul><ul><li>I. Preserve our well being & economic growth by finding alternative </li></ul><ul><li>Clean Sustainable Energy that we will not have to replace for a very long time, or </li></ul><ul><li>II. Massively shrink our energy use or Massively shrink our population. </li></ul>The time left to make this transition is 20 years(95% C) – 60 years (5% C) . Given that the most aggressive transformation will take 20 – 50 years, The enormity of crisis increases exponentially with each year we delay our transition. On the other hand, Massive Scaling of SEI will provide Sustainable global leadership & growth for those who lead
  39. 39. <ul><li>The inv VEST team has identified three SEIs for massive scaling: </li></ul><ul><li>1. Break-Through Solar Energy Initiative: </li></ul><ul><li>6 GW installed in 2010 with structured but flexible policy & legislation for 12 years in place </li></ul><ul><li>True PPI of <1 by 2015 without incentives “Mindset Enablers” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>20% of total US energy consumption by 2030 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ramp-up complementary SEI like Wind, Geo Thermal, Hydro, Clean Coal, Energy Storage & Transmission & related smart grid Infrastructure. “Technology Enablers” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ramp up electric energy usage to keep pace with Breakthrough SEI </li></ul></ul>2. Energy Efficiency and Conservation Initiative: USA consumes 54% more energy than a comparable OECD country. Reduce energy consumption per capita incrementally by 1% a year for 12 years for a total 12% reduction by 2020. “Mindset Enablers” 3 . Enable massive support & involvement from the student and citizen communities.   Involve Students, Faculty & Admin of Schools, Colleges and Universities in a grassroots movement to change our behavior and knowledge on how we use energy by introducing relevant curriculum and activities around SEI. The mass movement will also be extended to include all citizens communities for their deep involvement. “Mindset Game Changers” Other well defined ideas that hold the promise of meeting SEI definition will be developed overtime.
  40. 40. Oil Wind Hydropower Nuclear Gas Coal Biomass Solar Photovoltaic & Thermal Distributed: Home, Commercial Centralized: Power Plants Solar Thermal Heating Other Renewables Three Strategies We Plan To Use for USA focused inv VEST initiatives Adapting USA Centric Vision from German Advisory Council for Global Change Energy Consumption in Trillions of KWH/Year Dynamic 1: Fossil Fuel USE Shift Dynamic 2: Energy Efficiency & Conservation Reduce Total Global Energy Use Dynamic 3: Technology Enablers for faster economic parity to fossil fuels Time
  41. 41. Wind On Track Geo Thermal & Solar Yet to be On Track Needs Special Attention USA THE invVEST SEI MASSIVE SCALING: How it may look like The stretch case for a 95% confidence level for a smooth energy transition. Scenario II:
  42. 42. 85% 13.7% 1.3% 37.8% 22.5% 39.7% Emerging Sustainable Energy Mkts Massive Scaling End of Life Fossil Fuels Growth Mkts Non Fossil 39.3% Oil 11,600 22.5% Coal 6,600 23.3% Gas 6,900 8.3% Nuclear 2,400 7.64% Domestic Oil 2,500 12.4% Clean Coal 4,100 17.8% Gas as Bridge Fuel 5,900 14.9% Nuclear 4,900 8.9% Bio Fuels 2,900 8.9% Geo Thermal 2,900 9.2% Wind 3,000 9.2% Solar 3,000 The Balanced Portfolio for Sustainable Energy
  43. 43. GLOBAL ENERGY ECONOMY REACHES TEN TRILLION+ US$ 2030. 60% NEEDS TO BE SEI CREATES BILLION+ JOBS CUT FOSSIL ENERGY DEPENDENCY CURE CLIMATE CHANGE USA NEEDS TO BE THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SEI TO CREATE A VIBRANT ECONOMY Evaluate Current State Vs. Desired State Strategic Tools NATION FOCUS vs. STATE FOCUS LEAD BY EXAMPLE USA<STATE< County <Community level implementations WHAT’S IN IT FOR US? inv VEST SEI COMMUNITY SEI Market Place UNDERSTANDING THE FRAMEWORK FOR THE inv VEST VISION & PURPOSE <ul><li>We use energy in almost anything we do </li></ul><ul><li>Our Energy source & how we use energy </li></ul><ul><li>will drive or sink the new economy </li></ul>
  44. 44. The inv VEST Virtual Market Place Matrix for Sustainable Energy Initiatives Use this Matrix to Map & identify the right ambassadors and thought-leaders Functional Clusters Energy Clusters Visit www.invVEST.org to get to SEI market place, Strategy Papers & useful resources.
  45. 45. Vertical Clusters SEI Traits 0-10 BASE MAPPING TOOL: SEI Selection Criteria. 6 Traits Defined for Sustainable Energy (SE). The index of 0 means worst, 10 means best. If the energy source does not have the potential satisfy these six criteria It may not qualify for SEI, but it may still be a renewable energy source.
  46. 46. ENERGY LIFECYCLE BY SOURCE & GLOBAL CORE COMPETENCIES OVERVIEW we will use solar PV as an example, scale 1 (Lowest) -10 (Highest) Innovation Fundamental R&D Hype Cycle Growth Commercialization & Market Creation Application R&D DFMS Maturity Life extension Incremental R&D Decline cash cow End of Life Oil Wind Solar Algae Gas, Coal Breakeven line without subsidies Time Mkt Cap <ul><li>NREL Involvement: </li></ul><ul><li>Basic Research </li></ul><ul><li>Applied Research </li></ul><ul><li>Development </li></ul><ul><li>Demonstration </li></ul><ul><li>Testing & Validation </li></ul><ul><li>Commercialization </li></ul>Subsidy & funding $ needed USA has much larger Leadership gaps in other Renewable areas: eg: Batteries & Plug-in cars USA 2008 2012? Innovation fundamental R&D 9 10 Application R&D 6 9 Manufacturing 3 7 Market Size 3 10 Install Services & jobs 3 8 Industry Growth 4 9 Non OECD Asia 2008 2012 Innovation fundamental R&D 2 5 Application R&D 5 6 Manufacturing 9 8 Market Size 1 6 Install Services & jobs 1 5 Industry Growth 7 7 OECD Europe 2008 2012 Innovation fundamental R&D 7 7 Application R&D 8 7 Manufacturing 7 5 Market Size 10 8 Install Services & jobs 8 8 Industry Growth 9 6
  47. 47. Twenty years from now instead of fighting over a dwindling resource like fossil based oil to generate our energy that increases our pollution levels to the point of no return for our planet, we generate more and more clean, sustainable energy because it actually helps clean up the environment while fueling our sustainable economic growth. inv VEST plans to transform this imagination into reality. Imagine a paradigm shift: THIS NEEDS TO BE A SHARED VISION: ARE YOU IN? Work with us as virtual collaborative teams to make a difference for our very next generation Visit www.invVEST.org or contact Probir: probir.ghosh@invVEST.org
  48. 48. Developed Countries vs. Developing Countries Population & GDP Growth Profile Economies need to grow consistently to avoid Recession USA : 06 pop. 307M India: 06 pop. 1,100M China: 06 pop. 1,280M Japan 06 pop. 127M 3 rd in 1990 to 3 rd in 2030 2000 GDP: $ 9.8T 2030GDP: $20.8T -2-4% growth 2 nd in 1990 to 1 st in 2030 2000 GDP: $0.5T 2030GDP: $ 4.9T 6- 9% growth 8 -12% growth 2000 GDP: $1.1T 2030GDP: $ 14.3T 1 st in 1990 to 2 nd in 2030 9 th in 1990 to 15 th in 2030 2000 GDP: $4.2T 2030GDP: $ 5.8T OECD* Europe: 06 pop. 400M 1990 to 2030 practically flat 2000 GDP: $11T 2030GDP: $20T -1-3% growth Adapted from IMF & Goldman Sachs data Population & Economic Growth specially from China will CAUSE….. India while projected to have the largest population in the world will have a much smaller GDP compared to China in 2030. China will be 70% of US GDP by 2030 without considering PPP… With PPP China will exceed US GDP *OECD abbr. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Brazil Russia
  49. 49. A STATUS QUO GLOBAL ENERGY SNAPSHOT OECD Europe & USA Energy Usage Overview USA ‘ 06 pop. 307M 3 rd in 1990 to 3 rd in 2030 Quadrillion Btu Steady Economic Growth in USA & OECD Europe CAUSES… …… increased demand for Energy … adapted from EIA databases OECD: 06 pop. 400M 1990 to 2030 practically flat 2000 GDP: $11T 2030GDP: $16T While 23 countries under OECD Europe have higher population & GDP than USA, it consumes 25% less energy & creates 40% more energy from renewables compared to USA & the gap has been increasing Issue # 1: USA Consumes 54% more energy/capita than OECD Europe while having the same GDP/Capita Profile 1990 2010 2030
  50. 50. A STATUS QUO GLOBAL ENERGY SNAPSHOT Implications of rapid growth in developing countries China will consume more energy than USA by 2020 & by 2030 will consume 30% more energy than USA Jockeying for limited fossil fuel resources increases exponentially USA ‘ 06 pop. 307M ‘ 06 pop. 1,280M CHINA 3 rd in 1990 to 3 rd in 2030 1 st in 1990 to 2 nd in 2030 Quadrillion Btu CAUSES Population & High Economic Growth in China and other developing countries CAUSES… …… Rapid Growth in Energy Consumption … adapted from EIA databases India is a non player as far as current energy generation trends and pollution it causes globally. 1990 2010 2030
  51. 51. FOSSIL OIL GLOBAL ENERGY RESERVES <ul><li>Dominant use of Oil: </li></ul><ul><li>Transportation 70 - 80% </li></ul><ul><li>Industrial Process Heating </li></ul><ul><li>While Oil pollutes less than Coal, the </li></ul><ul><li>sheer volume of usage/year, 170Qbtu </li></ul><ul><li>vs. 130Qbtu for coal, made it </li></ul><ul><li>the largest CO 2 polluter until 2007 </li></ul>Middle-East, Venezuela, Russia, Nigeria control almost 75% of proven reserves USA Energy Security & Prosperity Issues
  52. 52. FOSSIL OIL STATUS QUO Limited Resources will Escalate Price and Energy Security Issues Exponentially Mid-East Oil Russia Canada As per IEA: The world has to invest $30 Trillion by 2030 to tap new oilfields as current ones dwindle to meet the increased demand. INCREASED DEMAND FOR LIMITED RESOURCES OF FOSSIL OIL WILL ESCALATE PRICES AND INCREASE ENERGY SECURITY ISSUES EXPONENTIALLY Intake figures are in Quadrillion Btu Number of years if current oil consumption Projections by EIA are followed Black Arrows are reliable sources to USA Red Arrows are not so reliable sources to USA USA prosperity will hit a wall every-time economy heats up Economic volatility & confrontations will escalate even more. Nigeria Venezuela Wall Street Article Nov 14 th 2008 Without imports US runs out of oil rapidly
  53. 53. FOSSIL GAS GLOBAL ENERGY RESERVE <ul><li>Dominant use of Natural Gas: </li></ul><ul><li>Building Heating </li></ul><ul><li>Electricity Peak Loads </li></ul><ul><li>Industrial Process Heating </li></ul><ul><li>Transportation </li></ul><ul><li>Compared to Coal & Oil, Natural Gas is the cleanest burning fossil fuel </li></ul>Russia controls 25% of proven reserves Iran & Qatar, 30% of proven reserves Energy Security & Prosperity Dependencies
  54. 54. FOSSIL GAS GLOBAL STATUS QUO Bridge Fuel to SEI? Russia Europe High dependence Iran & Qatar US* self sufficient in Natural Gas Reserves?? Myth or Reality? <ul><li>While US may not run out of natural gas in the short term(100 years?) </li></ul><ul><li>Russia has a strangle-hold on Europe gas supply </li></ul><ul><li>… and will increasingly manipulate to control. </li></ul><ul><li>Iran & Qatar will be wooed by rest of the world </li></ul><ul><li>even if they do not agree with their ideologies. </li></ul>
  55. 55. FOSSIL COAL GLOBAL ENERGY RESERVE <ul><li>Dominant use of Coal: </li></ul><ul><li>Power Generation </li></ul><ul><li>Steel Production </li></ul><ul><li>Industrial Process Heating </li></ul><ul><li>Coal is the dirtiest burning fuel </li></ul><ul><li>among the three fossil fuels </li></ul><ul><li>Highest CO 2 , NO x and SO x emissions + toxic particulate emissions especially among older generation plants, </li></ul><ul><li>But has lowest cost of energy. </li></ul>USA, Russia, China & India have good Coal Reserves CO2 emission and pollution issues are key concerns
  56. 56. FOSSIL COAL STATUS QUO GHG FROM COAL BASED POWER PLANTS IN CHINA ARE MAJOR CONECERNS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE US has sufficient coal reserves for 200+ years The issue is cleaner energy 70% of China’s energy comes from Coal, the only fossil fuel China can tap cheaply internally. At the projected rate of consumption, China may run out of coal in less than 50 years. Very soon China will have to import Coal too. China is aggressively setting up its footprint in South Africa and Australia to tap its resources. On a given day in 2008, 25% of pollution in LA comes from China The world’s coal energy reserves are two times more than oil and gas reserves combined. USA needs to lead the world in finding innovative solutions to find clean coal technologies as the owner of world’s largest coal reserves . Japan faces an exponential pollution ISSUES from China compared to USA
  57. 57. A STATUS QUO GLOBAL ENERGY SNAPSHOT Implications of Key Dynamics Shaping Energy & Climate Tsunami Energy Consumption in Quadrillion Btu China will consume more energy than USA by 2030 China exceeded USA in total CO2 emissions by 2008 and will emit double of USA by 2030 GLOBALLY, GHG emissions will double by 2030 From 1990 levels QBtu CAUSE SOURCES OF ENERGY EFFECT
  58. 58. The “FAT TAIL” by 2050- 2100 at the current trend rate of greenhouse gas release: There is a 99% probability the Global Temperature will rise by 3 degrees Celsius or 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit There is a 50% probability the Global Temperature will rise by 5.5 degrees Celsius or 10 degrees Fahrenheit The world will see severe environmental impact that may be irrevocable There is a 10% probability the Global Temperature will rise by 10+ degrees Celsius or 18 degrees Fahrenheit High likelyhood of Environmental Calamity impact that will be irrevocable For a more complete presentation please refer to “ Carbon Dioxide: What is Earth’s Point of No Return?” Alexander E. MacDonald, Director, NOAA ESRL See VSNI website: Data& Links & NOAA website for more .
  59. 59. A STATUS QUO GLOBAL ENERGY SNAPSHOT Implications of Key Dynamics Shaping Energy & Climate Tsunami Energy Consumption in Quadrillion Btu China will consume more energy than USA by 2030 ‘ 06 pop. 307M ‘ 06 pop. 1,280M 3 rd in 1990 to 3 rd in 2030 1 st in 1990 to 2 nd in 2030 The Debate: per capita or absolute On per Capita Basis: USA emitted 5 times more CO2 than China in 2006 and will STILL emit twice as much in 2030 UNLESS WE CHANGE THE WAY WE GENERATE ENERGY QBtu CAUSE EFFECT Per Capita Data
  60. 60. A STATUS QUO GLOBAL ENERGY SNAPSHOT What is the Take Away from the last Few Slides? Climate change is an EFFECT(Symptom) The way we use our energy is the CAUSE. You treat the Root Cause not the Effect. The Threat of Escalating Energy Resource Wars & Terrorism due to increased demand for dwindling fossil resources can be exponentially graver in the short term. WE NEED TO MASSIVELY SCALE SEI TO AVOID BOTH. WHERE IS USA COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR SEI?
  61. 61. Countries with Leading Renewable Energy Initiatives & 2007 USA Energy Consumption Profile Hydropower: Norway 98% of electric 60% of total energy needs Nuclear: France 83% of electric 39% of total energy needs Wind & Solar: Germany Wind installed: 22.2 GW Solar PV Installed: 3.8GW >20% of Electric Bio fuels: Brazil 40% of Transportation fuel 11% of total energy needs USA lags on all Renewable Energy components in % of energy usage when compared to OECD Europe, while still being the first by a huge margin for Fossil fuels. Offshore Wind Power: Denmark 30% of electric needs

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