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Stories To Watch 2018 #stw17


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Now in its 15th year, Dr. Andrew Steer, president & CEO, World Resources Institute, unveils insights on the major economic, environment and development stories that will shape the world in the coming year. Will states, cities and business lead on climate action? Will China and India advance their renewable energy goals? Will countries’ tackle air pollution and threats to the ocean? Will drought and famine lead to more conflict?

Published in: Environment
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Stories To Watch 2018 #stw17

  1. 1. WORLD ECONOMY DOING WELL Photo: Rafael Matsunaga/Flickr Dow Jones hits 25,000 January 5, 2018 Global GDP up 3.6%
  2. 2. POVERTY REACHES LOWEST RATE IN HISTORY Photo: Maria Fleischmann/World Bank. Source: World Poverty Clock (projected) 38 million people escaped extreme poverty
  4. 4. 2017: GLOBAL EMISSIONS RISE Source: WMO
  5. 5. RECORD HURRICANES IN 2017 Photo: Flickr/Antii Lipponen $135 billion insurance payouts
  6. 6. FLOODING IN SOUTH ASIA Photo: Flickr/CAN Europe 1,400 people killed
  7. 7. BIGGEST FIRES EVER RECORDED IN CALIFORNIA Photo: Flickr/US Department of Agriculture 1.2 million acres burned
  8. 8. SHAKE UP IN GEOPOLITICS Photo: Flickr/European Council President
  9. 9. How Far Will Trump Go? A Fossil Fuel Renaissance or Renewable Energy Surge? Will Momentum on Climate Continue? Will Businesses & Investors Accelerate Momentum Toward Sustainability? Will Mobility Trends Help People & the Planet? The Ascent of Plant-Based Protein? HOW DID WE DO IN 2017? Photo: Michael Fleshman/Flickr
  10. 10. INTRODUCING THE McVEGAN Photo: McDonald’s
  11. 11. NEW DELHI POLLUTION “OFF THE CHART” Source: US State Department
  12. 12. #1 ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH RISK 1 in 9 deaths worldwide Photo: Flickr/CIAT
  13. 13. BEYOND HUMAN HEALTH Photo: Flickr/World Bank Photo Collection AIR POLLUTION AFFECTS: • Food production • Solar energy output • Climate change
  14. 14. WHAT TO WATCH: Has China Turned a Corner? Photo: Flickr/Jens Schott Knudsen 2017 Air pollution in Beijing decreased by 20%
  15. 15. WHAT TO WATCH: Will India Step Up Enforcement? Photo: Flickr/CIAT • National and city action plans • Agricultural burning • Cleaner fuel standards
  16. 16. Photo: Flickr/Kamilokardona WHAT TO WATCH: Will People Use Technology to Demand Clean Air? COLOMBIA Purpleair monitors track air quality in real time
  17. 17. WHAT TO WATCH: Photo: Flickr/ZAMG Sentinel-5P: unprecedented detail Will New Satellites Be a Game Changer?
  18. 18. RECORD OIL PRODUCTION Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy
  20. 20. ENERGY DOMINANCE? Photo: Flickr/Gage Skidmore 2018 U.S. to produce record 10 million barrels oil/day
  21. 21. BUT, DISRUPTIVE FORCES IN PLAY… Photo: Flickr/American Tobacco Historic District
  22. 22. CAR COMPANIES… Photo: Flickr/Ford Europe Volvo, Ford, GM announced expanding EV fleets
  23. 23. GOVERNMENTS… Photo: Flickr/NatalieMaynor UK, France, Norway, Netherlands: No new gas cars by 2040
  24. 24. INVESTORS… Photo: Flickr/RosieTulips 2017 155 shareholder resolutions on climate and sustainability
  25. 25. INSURERS… Photo: Flickr/World Bank Photo Collection AXA quits oil sands
  26. 26. …AND OIL COMPANIES STARTING TO RESPOND Photo: Flickr/Jonah G.S. SHELL and STATOIL commit to reduce emissions intensity BP puts $200 million towards solar EXXON agrees to disclose climate risk
  27. 27. WHAT TO WATCH: Offshore Drilling: How Far Will It Go? Photo: Flickr/JournoJen 17 Atlantic and Pacific governors oppose offshore drilling Florida taken off list of states for offshore drilling
  28. 28. Photo: Flickr/Kārlis Dambrāns On deck: Germany, China, India and California WHAT TO WATCH: Will More Governments Ban Gas Cars?
  29. 29. WHAT TO WATCH: Will Development Banks Drop Oil? Photo: Flickr/World Bank Photo Collection WORLD BANK: No upstream oil & gas investment by 2019
  30. 30. WHAT TO WATCH: How Will Saudi Aramco IPO Be Valued? Photo: Flickr/RosieTulips
  31. 31. WHAT TO WATCH: Will Others Follow the World’s Largest Pension Fund? Photo: Flickr/JournoJen NORWEGIAN PENSION FUND ($1 trillion): Advised to divest from oil
  32. 32. Photo: Flickr/Martin Schachermayer WHAT TO WATCH: Will Oil Companies Follow Through?
  33. 33. ONE ADMINISTRATION THAT WON’T… Photo: US Environmental Protection Agency • Clean Power Plan • Vehicle Emissions Standards • Social Cost of Carbon • Paris Agreement
  34. 34. BUT WE ARE STILL IN! Photo: Flickr/David Yu 15 U.S. states 455 U.S. cities 1,700+ U.S. businesses
  38. 38. Who Is Going to Lead? Photo: Flickr/European Council WHAT TO WATCH:
  39. 39. Photo: Flickr/Gustavo M 3.5% rise in CO2 in 2017 2018 Launch of national carbon market WHAT TO WATCH: Which Way for China’s Emissions?
  40. 40. WHAT TO WATCH: Source: India’s Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE); Bridge to India Note: all year sin the chart are fiscal years: 1 April – 31 March Will India’s Renewable Energy Growth Keep Pace?
  41. 41. WHAT TO WATCH: Will US Subnational Action Add Up? Photo: Flickr/WRI REPORT RELEASE September 2018
  42. 42. NEW GLOBAL REPORT September 2018 WHAT TO WATCH: What Will the New Climate Economy Find?
  43. 43. Photo: Flickr/Matthew Paulson September 12–14, 2018 San Francisco, CA WHAT TO WATCH: Will 2018 Summit Lead to More Action?
  44. 44. WHAT TO WATCH: US Midterm Elections: Who Comes Out on Top? Source: US Today/ Inside Elections 435 House seats 34 Senate seats 36 Governors
  45. 45. WHAT TO WATCH: Source: Citizens Climate Lobby Will Bipartisan Support for Climate Grow? 62 Members of Climate Solutions Caucus x 66
  46. 46. WHAT TO WATCH: COP24: Will Countries Ramp Up Ambition? Photo: Flickr/Kamil Porembinski • Talanoa Dialogue • Paris Rulebook • Pre-2020 Issues
  47. 47. Photo: International Monetary Fund Follow
  48. 48. Photo: The Economist
  49. 49. THE PATH TO 1.5–2°C RELIES ON CO2 REMOVAL Source: UNEP
  50. 50. THE PATH TO 1.5–2°C RELIES ON CO2 REMOVAL Source: UNEP
  51. 51. THE PATH TO 1.5–2°C RELIES ON CO2 REMOVAL Source: UNEP
  52. 52. A MASSIVE CHALLENGE Source: UNEP 2017
  53. 53. A SPECTRUM OF STRATEGIES Photos: Flickr/AgriLife Today/WRI/United Soybean Board; ClimeWorks, Roger Aines
  54. 54. A SPECTRUM OF STRATEGIES Photos: Flickr/AgriLife Today/WRI/United Soybean Board; ClimeWorks, Roger Aines
  55. 55. A SPECTRUM OF STRATEGIES Photos: Flickr/AgriLife Today/WRI/United Soybean Board; ClimeWorks, Roger Aines
  56. 56. NATURAL STRATEGIES ARE READY TO SCALE 2 billion hectares potential for landscape restoration
  57. 57. DIRECT AIR CAPTURE & STORAGE Photo: ClimeWorks 3 COMPANIES AT THE FOREFRONT: • Carbon Engineering • ClimeWorks • Global Thermostat
  58. 58. ENHANCED WEATHERING Photo: Flickr/Michel G.
  59. 59. WHAT TO WATCH: What Will the IPCC Report Say About Negative Emissions? Photo: Flickr/Takver OCTOBER 2018 Global Warming of 1.5ºC report launch
  60. 60. WHAT TO WATCH: Will Natural Approaches Attract More Investment? Source: CS/WWF/McKinsey
  61. 61. WHAT TO WATCH: Will the First Zero Emission Gas Power Plant Work as Expected? Photo: Net Power and CB&I
  62. 62. 2017: LARGEST HUMANITARIAN CRISIS SINCE WWII Photo: Flickr/Hugh Macleod / IRIN 83 million people needed emergency food assistance
  63. 63. FOOD: WATER’S BIGGEST CUSTOMER Photo: Pixabay/Qui Nguyen Khac Agriculture accounts for 69% of global water withdrawal
  64. 64. WATER RISK WIDESPREAD Aquduct Water Risk Atlas
  65. 65. MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA AT HIGH RISK Source: Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas
  66. 66. 2040: WATER STRESS ON THE RISE Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas 33 countries to face extremely high stress
  67. 67. SYRIA’S WAR—PRECEDED BY DROUGHT Photo: Flickr/U.S. Department of State • 1.5 million rural Syrians migrated to cities • Climate change made the drought 2–3X more likely
  68. 68. TROUBLED WATERS IN LAKE CHAD REGION Photo: Espen Røst / Bistandsaktuelt • Lake Chad has shrunk by 95% since 1960s • 2.4 million people displaced • Herder/farmer conflict rivals Boko Haram threat
  69. 69. Will UN Security Council Adopt Climate Resolution? Photo: UNAMID/Flickr WHAT TO WATCH:
  70. 70. WHAT TO WATCH: How Will Countries Manage New Mega-Dams? Photo: Jacey Fortin GRAND ETHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM: • $5 billion project • Africa's largest hydroelectric dam
  71. 71. WHAT TO WATCH: Cities Facing Water Crises? Photo: Aloysius/Pixabay Cape Town “Day Zero” • April 2018 • 4 million residents’ taps run dry?
  72. 72. WHAT TO WATCH: Will Integrated Data Lead to Better Management? Source: Aqueduct Food
  73. 73. WHAT TO WATCH: Can the Data Revolution Help Prevent Crises? Resource Watch Launching April 2018
  74. 74. THE OCEAN IN HOT WATER • US EPA: Average Global Sea Surface Temperature, 1880-2015 Source: US EPA Over 30% of man made co2 emissions
  75. 75. CORAL BLEACHING CRISIS Photo: Flickr/Oregon State University 50% of coral reefs lost due to bleaching Coral bleaching 4x as frequent than 1980s
  76. 76. DROWNING IN PLASTIC Photo: Flickr/Susan White/USFWS ~9 million tons per year More plastic than fish in the ocean by 2050
  77. 77. FISHING BEYOND THE OCEAN'S LIMITS Photo: Flickr/-JvL- 31% overfished 58% fished to capacity
  78. 78. GROWING WAVE OF AWARENESS JANUARY 2016 SDG14 Life Below Water Photo: Flickr/gpparker 1,400 Commitments at The Ocean Conference of the UN UN Special Envoy for the Ocean JUNE 2017 SEPTEMBER 2017
  79. 79. WHAT TO WATCH: Progress on Plastic? Photo: Flickr/Jedimentat44 • 40+ countries have banned, restricted or taxed use of plastic bags • UN proposed ban on plastic in the ocean
  80. 80. WHAT TO WATCH: Will New Leadership Emerge? Photo: Flickr/floheinstein January 22–26 Davos, Switzerland
  81. 81. Photo: Thomas Mues/Flickr Key ocean assets worth $24 trillion WHAT TO WATCH: Will a Blue Economy Narrative Take Hold?
  82. 82. WHAT TO WATCH: Will G7 Leaders Unite? Photo: Flickr/European Council President June 8–9 Charlevoix, Canada
  83. 83. WHAT TO WATCH: Will Negotiations Begin for UN Treaty on the High Seas? Photo: Flickr/Joanna Penn Must protect 30% by 2030 to achieve ocean sustainability
  84. 84. TECHNOLOGIES TO WATCH: Will Blockchain Help Green Supply Chains? Photo: Flickr/Corey Templeton
  85. 85. TECHNOLOGIES TO WATCH: Will Tree-Planting Drones Take Off? Photo: BioCarbon Engineering
  86. 86. TECHNOLOGIES TO WATCH: Self-Driving Pizza Trucks?
  87. 87. TECHNOLOGIES TO WATCH: Does Utility-Scale Energy Storage Catalyze Renewables? Photo credit: hoesim
  88. 88. Source: Boston Dynamics Robots? TECHNOLOGIES TO WATCH: