COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 3, 2020

1. Caveats and Comments
1
Overview:
This is my analysis, not Stanford’s. My goal is to understand the trajectory of COVID. It is not confidential and can be freely shared. The R program code is
available at https://github.com/StevenLShafer/COVID19/. The daily analysis are available at https://1drv.ms/u/s!AuOyHP_aTIy7rowrt2AjGpWm_frnEQ?e=KBcNbh.
You are welcome to use the R code on GitHub for any purpose.
I am attempting to keep the analysis and commentary apolitical. I am now including partisan lean as a metric to help understand the epidemic. I occasionally point
out misrepresentations by government officials. I occasionally point out where government recommendations have placed Americans at increasing risk.
I try to provide a daily update in the morning, except Sundays. My analysis my be delayed by my clinical responsibilities as a Stanford anesthesiologist.
There is a lot of information on the figures. If something isn’t clear, please see the explanation on slide 2.
Data sources:
• USA Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv
• USA Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv
• USA Testing and Hospitalization Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/COVID19Tracking/covid-tracking-data/master/data/states_daily_4pm_et.csv
• Global Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_global.csv
• Global Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv
• Global Testing Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/owid/covid-19-data/master/public/data/owid-covid-data.csv
• Mobility Data: https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/Global_Mobility_Report.csv
• Partisan Lean: MIT Election Data and Science Lab: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ/HEIJCQ
• Ensemble Model: https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/raw/master/data-processed/COVIDhub-ensemble/2020-xx-xx-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv
Models:
1. Future projections of case numbers are based on the Gompertz function (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gompertz_function): log 𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 =
𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 + 𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 − 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 1 − 𝑒−𝑘 𝑡 . This is a naïve asymptotic model. k is the rate constant, such that log(2) / k = time to 50%
rise. t is the number of days. Wikipedia The Gompertz function is estimated from the last 3 weeks of data for cumulative cases (red dots in the figures).
Deaths are predicted from a log linear regression of deaths over the past 21 days. For the US, and individual states, I am also including the 98% prediction
interval from the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/).
2. The rate of change in daily cases and deaths is the slope of delta cases / day over the last 14 days, divided by the average number of cases.
Locations
The locations for the modeling are where Pamela and I have family and friends, locations of interest to friends and colleagues, or countries in the news (e.g.,
China, South Korea, Sweden, Brazil) or with significant economic impact on the United States (e.g., Japan, Canada, Mexico). Locations are easy to add.
Stay safe, well, resilient, and kind.
Steve Shafer
steven.shafer@Stanford.edu

2. 2,586,092
152,804
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-05-27
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,662,302 (32,123) -- Deaths: 98,220 (829) -- Case Mortality: 5.9% -- Daily Change in Cases: -0.5%
Explanation of the Figures
2
Brown dots:
cumulative tests
Red dots: cumulative cases
used to estimate Gompertz
function, presently set to last
3 weeks
Red line: predicted cumulative
cases based on the Gompertz
function estimated from the red
dots
Red number: total cases
on June 30th, based on
the Gompertz function
estimated from the red
dots
Black number: total
Deaths on July 31th,
based on log-linear
regression of the past
21 days
Black line: predicted
cumulative deaths, based
on a log linear regression
of deaths over past 21
days.
Axis for deaths / day, usually
1/10th of the axis for cases /
day on the left side of the
figure.
Green line: linear regression
over 8 days, used to calculate
percent increase / decrease
(see below)
Daily change in cases,
calculated as the slope of the
green line (above left) /
number of new cases
yesterday.
Case mortality:
cumulative deaths
/ cumulative cases.
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
not used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Deaths / day,
axis is on the left
Blue line: today
Blue dots: cumulative cases not
used to estimate Gompertz
function
Cumulative cases
(yesterday’s cases)
and cumulative deaths
(yesterday’s deaths)
Axis for cases / day.
Axis for deaths / day
appears to the right.
Geographic
location
Date of analysis,
also shown as
blue vertical line
below
Purple wedge: 98% ensemble
prediction interval from COVID-19
Forecast Hub (USA and US
States only)

3. Worldwide
33,282,993
1,053,057
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Cumulative
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Worldwide projection as of 2020-09-03
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 26,030,679 (281,768) -- Deaths: 863,012 (6,013) -- Case Mortality: 3.3% -- Daily Change: +0.6% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
2020-09-03 Summary: 3

4. USA
7,255,953
216,770
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Cumulative
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-09-03
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,20200
20,000
40,000
60,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,113,510 (39,670) -- Deaths: 185,720 (1,056) -- Case Mortality: 3.0% -- Daily Change: -0.7% Cases, -1.1% Deaths
2020-09-03 Summary: 4

5. Non-authoritarian Asian ensemble
132,154
2,271
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Cumulative
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam (Population = 328 MM)
Non-authoritarian Asian ensemble projection as of 2020-09-03
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 94,736 (795) -- Deaths: 1,748 (17) -- Case Mortality: 1.8% -- Daily Change: -3.4% Cases, +2.3% Deaths
2020-09-03 Summary: 5

6. Western Europe
2,236,630
156,963
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Cumulative
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Netherlands, Luxembourg, and the UK (Population = 344MM)
Western Europe projection as of 2020-09-03
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,812,055 (21,455) -- Deaths: 154,737 (110) -- Case Mortality: 8.5% -- Daily Change: +3.6% Cases, +0.5% Deaths
2020-09-03 Summary: 6

7. Worldwide cases
USA
Brazil
India
Russia
Peru
Colombia
SouthAfrica
Mexico
Spain
Argentina
Chile
Iran
UnitedKingdom
France
Bangladesh
SaudiArabia
Pakistan
Turkey
Italy
Germany
Iraq
Philippines
Indonesia
Canada
Ukraine
Israel
Bolivia
Ecuador
Kazakhstan
Egypt
DominicanRepublic
China
Romania
Belgium
Sweden
Guatemala
Netherlands
Belarus
Japan
Poland
Morocco
Honduras
Portugal
Nigeria
Ethiopia
Venezuela
Algeria
Ghana
Kyrgyzstan
Switzerland
Uzbekistan
Nepal
Afghanistan
Azerbaijan
Kenya
Serbia
Austria
Australia
ElSalvador
CzechRepublic
SouthKorea
Cameroon
Paraguay
IvoryCoast
Denmark
USA
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Totalcasestodate
Worldwide cases
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-09-03 Summary: 7

8. Worldwide cases
Chile
Peru
Brazil
USA
Israel
Colombia
SouthAfrica
Bolivia
Spain
SaudiArabia
Argentina
DominicanRepublic
Sweden
Kyrgyzstan
Honduras
Belgium
Ecuador
Iraq
Belarus
Russia
Kazakhstan
Iran
Guatemala
UnitedKingdom
Switzerland
Mexico
Portugal
France
Italy
Azerbaijan
Netherlands
Serbia
Romania
Canada
ElSalvador
Turkey
Austria
India
Denmark
Germany
Ukraine
Paraguay
CzechRepublic
Libya
Philippines
Bulgaria
Bangladesh
Morocco
Ghana
Venezuela
Poland
Pakistan
Finland
Uzbekistan
Nepal
Afghanistan
Algeria
Australia
Egypt
Tajikistan
Zambia
Cameroon
Senegal
Greece
Guinea
USA
None
1 in 200
1 in 100
1 in 67
1 in 50
1 in 40
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Totalcasestodate
Worldwide cases
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-09-03 Summary: 8

9. Average new cases over past 7 days
Israel
Argentina
Peru
Spain
Brazil
Colombia
USA
Iraq
Honduras
Chile
Bolivia
France
Paraguay
Libya
India
Guatemala
Ecuador
Romania
Ukraine
Mexico
SouthAfrica
DominicanRepublic
Switzerland
Belgium
CzechRepublic
Morocco
Philippines
Netherlands
Venezuela
Nepal
Austria
Russia
SaudiArabia
Portugal
Iran
UnitedKingdom
Italy
Greece
Turkey
Belarus
Kyrgyzstan
Bulgaria
Azerbaijan
Hungary
Poland
ElSalvador
Denmark
Ethiopia
Canada
Germany
Bangladesh
Slovakia
Tunisia
Sweden
Serbia
Uzbekistan
Zambia
Indonesia
Algeria
Jordan
Rwanda
Kazakhstan
Senegal
SouthKorea
Japan
USA
None
1 in 20,000
1 in 10,000
1 in 6,667
1 in 5,000
1 in 4,000
1 in 3,333
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Averagecases/day
Average new cases over past 7 days
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-09-03 Summary: 9

10. Worldwide deaths
USA
Brazil
India
Mexico
UnitedKingdom
Italy
France
Spain
Peru
Iran
Colombia
Russia
SouthAfrica
Chile
Belgium
Germany
Canada
Argentina
Indonesia
Iraq
Ecuador
Turkey
Pakistan
Netherlands
Sweden
Egypt
Bolivia
China
Bangladesh
SaudiArabia
Romania
Philippines
Guatemala
Ukraine
Poland
Switzerland
Honduras
Portugal
DominicanRepublic
Kazakhstan
Algeria
Afghanistan
Japan
Morocco
Kyrgyzstan
Nigeria
Israel
Ethiopia
Sudan
Austria
ElSalvador
Serbia
Belarus
Australia
Bulgaria
Denmark
Hungary
Kenya
Yemen
Azerbaijan
CzechRepublic
Cameroon
Venezuela
Paraguay
Finland
USA
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Totaldeathstodate
Worldwide deaths
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-09-03 Summary: 10

11. Worldwide deaths
Peru
Belgium
Spain
UnitedKingdom
Chile
Sweden
Brazil
Italy
Mexico
USA
Bolivia
France
Ecuador
Colombia
Netherlands
Iran
SouthAfrica
Canada
Switzerland
Honduras
Iraq
Argentina
Guatemala
Kyrgyzstan
DominicanRepublic
Portugal
Romania
SaudiArabia
Israel
Russia
Germany
Denmark
Kazakhstan
ElSalvador
Serbia
Bulgaria
Austria
Turkey
Belarus
Egypt
Azerbaijan
Finland
Hungary
Ukraine
India
Poland
Paraguay
Afghanistan
Algeria
CzechRepublic
Libya
Philippines
Pakistan
Morocco
Australia
Sudan
Indonesia
Bangladesh
Greece
Zambia
Yemen
Nicaragua
Haiti
Cameroon
Senegal
USA
None
1 in 5,000
1 in 2,500
1 in 1,667
1 in 1,250
1 in 1,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Totaldeathstodate
Worldwide deaths
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-09-03 Summary: 11

12. Average daily deaths over past 7 days
Bolivia
Colombia
Peru
Mexico
Argentina
Brazil
Honduras
Chile
USA
SouthAfrica
Iraq
DominicanRepublic
Paraguay
Ecuador
Romania
Israel
Iran
Guatemala
Bulgaria
SaudiArabia
Ukraine
Morocco
Libya
ElSalvador
India
Spain
Australia
Russia
Philippines
Kazakhstan
Belarus
Turkey
Zimbabwe
Indonesia
Nepal
Greece
Poland
France
Bangladesh
Azerbaijan
Portugal
Venezuela
Netherlands
Egypt
Algeria
Ethiopia
Uzbekistan
Serbia
Canada
Syria
Switzerland
UnitedKingdom
Haiti
Tunisia
Senegal
Italy
CzechRepublic
Madagascar
Japan
Zambia
Angola
Nicaragua
Cuba
Yemen
Kenya
USA
None
1 in 500,000
1 in 250,000
1 in 166,667
1 in 125,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Averagedeaths/day
Average daily deaths over past 7 days
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-09-03 Summary: 12

13. Mortality Trends
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
USCaseRateMortality
Mortality Type:
13 day rolling median
Cumulative
Daily Raw
Daily vs. Cumulative US Case Rate Mortality
Last week excluded because deaths are often backdated
2020-09-03 Summary: 13

14. Change in New Cases per Day
New cases are:
Increasing > +3%
Increasing between +1% and +3%
No Change (-1% to +1%)
Decreasing between -1% and -3%
Decreasing > -3%
New cases by state as of 2020-09-03
2020-09-03 Summary: 14

15. Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
PercentofPeak
Daily Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
2020-09-03 Summary: 15

16. Change in New Deaths per Day
New deaths are:
Increasing > +0.5%
Increasing between +0.1% and +0.5%
No Change (-0.1% to +0.1%)
Decreasing between -0.1% and -0.5%
Decreasing > -0.5%
New deaths by state as of 2020-09-03
2020-09-03 Summary: 16

17. Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
PercentofPeak
Daily Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
2020-09-03 Summary: 17

18. Change in cases vs change in deaths
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
DC
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
-6
-3
0
3
6
-2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0
Change in cases (%/day)
Changeindeaths(%/day)
Change in cases vs change in deaths over last 14 days as of 2020-09-03
2020-09-03 Summary: 18

19. Total US COVID-19 Cases
California
Texas
Florida
NewYork
Georgia
Illinois
Arizona
NewJersey
NorthCarolina
Tennessee
Louisiana
Pennsylvania
Massachusetts
Alabama
Ohio
Virginia
SouthCarolina
Michigan
Maryland
Indiana
Missouri
Mississippi
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Washington
Nevada
Iowa
Arkansas
Oklahoma
Colorado
Connecticut
Utah
Kentucky
Kansas
Nebraska
Idaho
Oregon
NewMexico
RhodeIsland
Delaware
DistrictofColumbia
SouthDakota
NorthDakota
WestVirginia
Hawaii
Montana
NewHampshire
Alaska
Maine
Wyoming
Vermont
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Totalcases
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Total US COVID-19 Cases
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.42, p governor: 0.79. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-03 Summary: 19

20. Total US COVID-19 Cases
Louisiana
Florida
Mississippi
Arizona
Alabama
Georgia
SouthCarolina
Tennessee
Nevada
NewYork
Texas
NewJersey
Iowa
RhodeIsland
Arkansas
DistrictofColumbia
Illinois
Massachusetts
Idaho
California
Nebraska
Maryland
Delaware
Utah
NorthCarolina
NorthDakota
SouthDakota
Oklahoma
Kansas
Connecticut
Missouri
Virginia
Indiana
Minnesota
Wisconsin
NewMexico
Michigan
Kentucky
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Colorado
Washington
Alaska
Montana
Wyoming
Oregon
Hawaii
WestVirginia
NewHampshire
Maine
Vermont
None
1 in 100
1 in 50
1 in 33
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
TotalCases
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Total US COVID-19 Cases
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.71, p governor: 0.088. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-03 Summary: 20

21. Average US COVID-19 cases over the past
7 days
SouthDakota
Iowa
NorthDakota
Alabama
Tennessee
Missouri
Mississippi
Kansas
Arkansas
Georgia
Oklahoma
Hawaii
Nebraska
SouthCarolina
Florida
Texas
Louisiana
Idaho
NorthCarolina
Illinois
Kentucky
Minnesota
Nevada
Indiana
California
Montana
Wisconsin
Utah
Virginia
Ohio
Alaska
Maryland
WestVirginia
RhodeIsland
Delaware
Michigan
DistrictofColumbia
Arizona
Washington
Wyoming
NewMexico
Pennsylvania
Massachusetts
Oregon
Colorado
Connecticut
NewJersey
NewYork
Maine
NewHampshire
Vermont
None
1 in 10,000
1 in 5,000
1 in 3,333
1 in 2,500
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
NewCases/Day
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Average US COVID-19 cases over the past 7 days
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.0059, p governor: 0.0054. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-03 Summary: 21

22. Total US COVID-19 Deaths
NewYork
NewJersey
California
Texas
Florida
Massachusetts
Illinois
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Georgia
Arizona
Louisiana
Connecticut
Ohio
Maryland
Indiana
SouthCarolina
NorthCarolina
Virginia
Mississippi
Alabama
Colorado
Washington
Minnesota
Tennessee
Missouri
Nevada
Wisconsin
Iowa
RhodeIsland
Kentucky
Arkansas
Oklahoma
NewMexico
DistrictofColumbia
Delaware
Oregon
Kansas
NewHampshire
Utah
Nebraska
Idaho
WestVirginia
SouthDakota
NorthDakota
Maine
Montana
Hawaii
Vermont
Wyoming
Alaska
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
TotalDeaths
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Total US COVID-19 Deaths
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.062, p governor: 0.23. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-03 Summary: 22

23. Total US COVID-19 Deaths
NewJersey
NewYork
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Louisiana
RhodeIsland
DistrictofColumbia
Mississippi
Arizona
Michigan
Illinois
Maryland
Delaware
Pennsylvania
Georgia
SouthCarolina
Florida
Indiana
Alabama
Texas
Nevada
NewMexico
Ohio
Iowa
Colorado
California
Minnesota
NewHampshire
Virginia
Arkansas
NorthCarolina
Tennessee
Missouri
Washington
Kentucky
Idaho
Oklahoma
Nebraska
Wisconsin
NorthDakota
SouthDakota
Kansas
WestVirginia
Utah
Oregon
Montana
Maine
Vermont
Wyoming
Alaska
Hawaii
None
1 in 2,000
1 in 1,000
1 in 667
1 in 500
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
TotalDeaths
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Total US COVID-19 Deaths
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.028, p governor: 0.26. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-03 Summary: 23

24. Average US COVID-19 deaths over the past
7 days
Mississippi
SouthCarolina
Georgia
Louisiana
Arkansas
Florida
Texas
Arizona
Alabama
Nevada
Idaho
WestVirginia
Tennessee
California
Iowa
Ohio
NorthCarolina
Oklahoma
Hawaii
NewMexico
Missouri
Virginia
Kentucky
Massachusetts
Illinois
NorthDakota
Indiana
RhodeIsland
Montana
Kansas
Minnesota
Maryland
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Oregon
SouthDakota
Nebraska
Wisconsin
Washington
Wyoming
DistrictofColumbia
NewYork
Colorado
Alaska
Utah
NewHampshire
Delaware
Maine
NewJersey
Connecticut
Vermont
None
1 in 500,000
1 in 250,000
1 in 166,667
1 in 125,000
1 in 100,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Deaths/Day
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Average US COVID-19 deaths over the past 7 days
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.54, p governor: 0.037. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-03 Summary: 24

25. Daily testing trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Dailytestingfrommintomax
Daily testing trends from min to max
Line = Friedman's supersmoother
2020-09-03 Summary: 25

26. Change in daily tests over past 14 days
Vermont
Maine
Alaska
Hawaii
Delaware
Massachusetts
Utah
Connecticut
Wyoming
Illinois
Ohio
NorthCarolina
Arkansas
Kansas
NewYork
NorthDakota
Kentucky
RhodeIsland
Mississippi
NewJersey
Iowa
Michigan
Oklahoma
Montana
WestVirginia
SouthDakota
Minnesota
Pennsylvania
Maryland
Missouri
Nebraska
NewHampshire
California
Oregon
Indiana
Washington
Colorado
Idaho
Alabama
Tennessee
Virginia
Louisiana
Texas
Wisconsin
SouthCarolina
DistrictofColumbia
Georgia
NewMexico
Arizona
Florida
Nevada
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Changeindailytests(%/day)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Change in daily tests over past 14 days
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.71, p governor: 0.62. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-03 Summary: 26

27. Percent Tested
Alaska
NewYork
DistrictofColumbia
Louisiana
NewMexico
Connecticut
Tennessee
NewJersey
Illinois
California
Michigan
NorthDakota
RhodeIsland
Massachusetts
Delaware
WestVirginia
Arkansas
Montana
Oklahoma
Georgia
Vermont
Maryland
NorthCarolina
Wisconsin
Florida
Utah
Minnesota
Maine
Iowa
Alabama
Ohio
Nevada
Mississippi
Washington
Nebraska
Virginia
Kentucky
SouthCarolina
Texas
SouthDakota
Arizona
Missouri
Indiana
NewHampshire
Idaho
Kansas
Hawaii
Oregon
Wyoming
Pennsylvania
Colorado
0
20
40
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
PercentTested
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Percent Tested
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.059, p governor: 0.28. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-03 Summary: 27

28. Percent of Positive COVID Tests
Arizona
Mississippi
Florida
Alabama
SouthCarolina
Idaho
Texas
Nevada
Georgia
Kansas
Iowa
Nebraska
SouthDakota
Indiana
Missouri
Arkansas
Maryland
Colorado
Pennsylvania
RhodeIsland
Utah
Louisiana
Virginia
NorthCarolina
Delaware
Tennessee
Massachusetts
Oklahoma
Minnesota
NewJersey
Wisconsin
California
NorthDakota
Kentucky
Illinois
Ohio
NewYork
Wyoming
Washington
Oregon
DistrictofColumbia
Connecticut
Hawaii
Michigan
NewHampshire
NewMexico
Montana
WestVirginia
Maine
Alaska
Vermont
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
PercentofPositiveTests
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Percent of Positive COVID Tests
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.039, p governor: 0.0048. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-03 Summary: 28

29. Positive fraction trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Fractionpositivefrommintomax
Positive fraction trends from min to max
2020-09-03 Summary: 29

30. Change in positive tests over past 14 days
Hawaii
NorthDakota
SouthDakota
Iowa
Missouri
Kentucky
Alabama
Oklahoma
Kansas
Minnesota
Wisconsin
SouthCarolina
Nevada
Montana
WestVirginia
Utah
Alaska
Nebraska
Mississippi
Oregon
Idaho
Arkansas
Indiana
Texas
Florida
Tennessee
Virginia
NorthCarolina
Georgia
California
Washington
NewMexico
Louisiana
Illinois
Pennsylvania
Arizona
Colorado
Delaware
Maryland
Michigan
Ohio
NewHampshire
RhodeIsland
NewJersey
DistrictofColumbia
Wyoming
NewYork
Vermont
Maine
Connecticut
Massachusetts
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Changeinpositivetests(%/day)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Change in positive tests over past 14 days
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.016, p governor: 0.085. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-03 Summary: 30

31. Change in tests vs change in positive tests
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
DC
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TNTX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
-1
0
1
2
-2 0 2 4
Change in tests (%/day)
Changeinpositivetests(%/day)
Change in tests vs change in positive tests last 14 days as of 2020-09-03
Size of the state font reflects the number of deaths over the past 7 days.
2020-09-03 Summary: 31

32. Current hospitalizations as a percent of peak
since FebruaryHawaii
Kansas
Missouri
Montana
NorthDakota
WestVirginia
Alaska
Oklahoma
Nebraska
SouthDakota
Kentucky
Wyoming
Idaho
Iowa
Arkansas
NorthCarolina
Georgia
Tennessee
Ohio
Virginia
Mississippi
Alabama
Indiana
Washington
Nevada
California
SouthCarolina
Utah
Minnesota
Oregon
Wisconsin
Louisiana
Florida
Texas
Illinois
NewMexico
RhodeIsland
Maryland
Colorado
Delaware
Arizona
Michigan
Pennsylvania
DistrictofColumbia
Vermont
Maine
Massachusetts
NewJersey
NewHampshire
Connecticut
NewYork
0
30
60
90
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Hospitalizations(%ofpeak)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Current hospitalizations as a percent of peak since February
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.011, p governor: 0.048. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-03 Summary: 32

33. Hospitalizations trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Hospitalizationsfrommintomax
Hospitalizations trends from min to max
2020-09-03 Summary: 33

34. Change in hospitalizations over past 14
days
Delaware
Hawaii
Montana
SouthDakota
NorthDakota
Kansas
Connecticut
Nebraska
Iowa
NewJersey
WestVirginia
Missouri
Minnesota
Oklahoma
Michigan
Indiana
Georgia
Illinois
RhodeIsland
Kentucky
Alaska
Idaho
NorthCarolina
Pennsylvania
DistrictofColumbia
Maine
Wyoming
Virginia
Ohio
Massachusetts
Washington
Tennessee
NewYork
Arkansas
Maryland
Colorado
Utah
Wisconsin
Alabama
SouthCarolina
California
Louisiana
Mississippi
Oregon
Nevada
NewMexico
Florida
Texas
Arizona
Vermont
NewHampshire
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Changeinhospitalizations(%/day)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Change in hospitalizations over past 14 days
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.89, p governor: 0.34. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-03 Summary: 34

35. Change in New Cases per Day
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
NA
Trends by county as of 2020-09-03
NA = Inadequate data
2020-09-03 Summary: 35