COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 8, 2020

1. Caveats and Comments
1
Overview:
This is my analysis, not Stanford’s. My goal is to understand the trajectory of COVID. It is not confidential and can be freely shared. The R program code is
available at https://github.com/StevenLShafer/COVID19/. The daily analysis are available at https://1drv.ms/u/s!AuOyHP_aTIy7rowrt2AjGpWm_frnEQ?e=KBcNbh.
You are welcome to use the R code on GitHub for any purpose.
I am attempting to keep the analysis and commentary apolitical. I am now including partisan lean as a metric to help understand the epidemic. I occasionally point
out misrepresentations by government officials. I occasionally point out where government recommendations have placed Americans at increasing risk.
I try to provide a daily update in the morning, except Sundays. My analysis my be delayed by my clinical responsibilities as a Stanford anesthesiologist.
There is a lot of information on the figures. If something isn’t clear, please see the explanation on slide 2.
Data sources:
• USA Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv
• USA Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv
• USA Testing and Hospitalization Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/COVID19Tracking/covid-tracking-data/master/data/states_daily_4pm_et.csv
• Global Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_global.csv
• Global Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv
• Global Testing Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/owid/covid-19-data/master/public/data/owid-covid-data.csv
• Mobility Data: https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/Global_Mobility_Report.csv
• Partisan Lean: MIT Election Data and Science Lab: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ/HEIJCQ
• Ensemble Model: https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/raw/master/data-processed/COVIDhub-ensemble/2020-xx-xx-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv
Models:
1. Future projections of case numbers are based on the Gompertz function (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gompertz_function): log 𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 =
𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 + 𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 − 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 1 − 𝑒−𝑘 𝑡 . This is a naïve asymptotic model. k is the rate constant, such that log(2) / k = time to 50%
rise. t is the number of days. Wikipedia The Gompertz function is estimated from the last 3 weeks of data for cumulative cases (red dots in the figures).
Deaths are predicted from a log linear regression of deaths over the past 21 days. For the US, and individual states, I am also including the 98% prediction
interval from the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/).
2. The rate of change in daily cases and deaths is the slope of delta cases / day over the last 14 days, divided by the average number of cases.
Locations
The locations for the modeling are where Pamela and I have family and friends, locations of interest to friends and colleagues, or countries in the news (e.g.,
China, South Korea, Sweden, Brazil) or with significant economic impact on the United States (e.g., Japan, Canada, Mexico). Locations are easy to add.
Stay safe, well, resilient, and kind.
Steve Shafer
steven.shafer@Stanford.edu

2. 2,586,092
152,804
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-05-27
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,662,302 (32,123) -- Deaths: 98,220 (829) -- Case Mortality: 5.9% -- Daily Change in Cases: -0.5%
Explanation of the Figures
2
Brown dots:
cumulative tests
Red dots: cumulative cases
used to estimate Gompertz
function, presently set to last
3 weeks
Red line: predicted cumulative
cases based on the Gompertz
function estimated from the red
dots
Red number: total cases
on June 30th, based on
the Gompertz function
estimated from the red
dots
Black number: total
Deaths on July 31th,
based on log-linear
regression of the past
21 days
Black line: predicted
cumulative deaths, based
on a log linear regression
of deaths over past 21
days.
Axis for deaths / day, usually
1/10th of the axis for cases /
day on the left side of the
figure.
Green line: linear regression
over 8 days, used to calculate
percent increase / decrease
(see below)
Daily change in cases,
calculated as the slope of the
green line (above left) /
number of new cases
yesterday.
Case mortality:
cumulative deaths
/ cumulative cases.
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
not used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Deaths / day,
axis is on the left
Blue line: today
Blue dots: cumulative cases not
used to estimate Gompertz
function
Cumulative cases
(yesterday’s cases)
and cumulative deaths
(yesterday’s deaths)
Axis for cases / day.
Axis for deaths / day
appears to the right.
Geographic
location
Date of analysis,
also shown as
blue vertical line
below
Purple wedge: 98% ensemble
prediction interval from COVID-19
Forecast Hub (USA and US
States only)

3. Worldwide
33,527,094
1,041,323
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Cumulative
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Worldwide projection as of 2020-09-08
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 27,331,702 (228,588) -- Deaths: 892,427 (9,104) -- Case Mortality: 3.3% -- Daily Change: -0.3% Cases, +0.9% Deaths
2020-09-08 Summary: 3

4. USA
7,229,784
213,824
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Cumulative
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-09-08
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
LaborDay
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,300,622 (24,257) -- Deaths: 189,208 (267) -- Case Mortality: 3.0% -- Daily Change: -1.7% Cases, -2.0% Deaths
2020-09-08 Summary: 4

5. Non-authoritarian Asian ensemble
124,333
2,258
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Cumulative
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam (Population = 328 MM)
Non-authoritarian Asian ensemble projection as of 2020-09-08
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 98,140 (432) -- Deaths: 1,811 (16) -- Case Mortality: 1.8% -- Daily Change: -5.4% Cases, -0.8% Deaths
2020-09-08 Summary: 5

6. Western Europe
2,332,005
157,211
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Cumulative
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Netherlands, Luxembourg, and the UK (Population = 344MM)
Western Europe projection as of 2020-09-08
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,926,061 (53,675) -- Deaths: 155,247 (125) -- Case Mortality: 8.1% -- Daily Change: +3.6% Cases, +3.1% Deaths
2020-09-08 Summary: 6

7. Worldwide cases
USA
India
Brazil
Russia
Peru
Colombia
SouthAfrica
Mexico
Spain
Argentina
Chile
Iran
France
UnitedKingdom
Bangladesh
SaudiArabia
Pakistan
Turkey
Italy
Iraq
Germany
Philippines
Indonesia
Ukraine
Canada
Israel
Bolivia
Ecuador
Kazakhstan
Egypt
DominicanRepublic
Romania
China
Belgium
Sweden
Netherlands
Guatemala
Morocco
Belarus
Japan
Poland
Honduras
Portugal
Ethiopia
Nigeria
Venezuela
Nepal
Algeria
Ghana
Switzerland
Kyrgyzstan
Uzbekistan
Afghanistan
Azerbaijan
Kenya
Serbia
Austria
CzechRepublic
ElSalvador
Australia
Paraguay
SouthKorea
Cameroon
Libya
IvoryCoast
USA
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Totalcasestodate
Worldwide cases
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-09-08 Summary: 7

8. Worldwide cases
Chile
Peru
Brazil
USA
Israel
Colombia
SouthAfrica
Spain
Bolivia
Argentina
SaudiArabia
DominicanRepublic
Sweden
Iraq
Honduras
Belgium
Kyrgyzstan
Belarus
Ecuador
Russia
Kazakhstan
Switzerland
Guatemala
Iran
UnitedKingdom
Mexico
Portugal
France
Italy
Netherlands
Azerbaijan
Serbia
Romania
Canada
ElSalvador
India
Turkey
Austria
Paraguay
Denmark
Ukraine
Germany
Libya
CzechRepublic
Philippines
Bulgaria
Morocco
Bangladesh
Venezuela
Ghana
Poland
Pakistan
Nepal
Uzbekistan
Finland
Algeria
Afghanistan
Australia
Egypt
Tajikistan
Greece
Zambia
Cameroon
Senegal
Guinea
USA
None
1 in 200
1 in 100
1 in 67
1 in 50
1 in 40
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Totalcasestodate
Worldwide cases
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-09-08 Summary: 8

9. Average new cases over past 7 days
Israel
Spain
Argentina
Peru
Brazil
Colombia
Iraq
USA
Paraguay
Chile
Libya
France
Honduras
DominicanRepublic
Bolivia
India
Ukraine
CzechRepublic
Romania
Mexico
Morocco
Netherlands
Belgium
Switzerland
Venezuela
Nepal
Hungary
Guatemala
Austria
SouthAfrica
Russia
UnitedKingdom
Portugal
SaudiArabia
Iran
Denmark
Philippines
Italy
Sweden
Turkey
Greece
Belarus
Slovakia
Tunisia
Azerbaijan
Bulgaria
Canada
Germany
Kyrgyzstan
Poland
ElSalvador
Bangladesh
Indonesia
Ethiopia
Uzbekistan
Jordan
Serbia
Algeria
Zimbabwe
Zambia
Finland
Guinea
Tajikistan
Kazakhstan
Rwanda
USA
None
1 in 10,000
1 in 5,000
1 in 3,333
1 in 2,500
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Averagecases/day
Average new cases over past 7 days
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-09-08 Summary: 9

10. Worldwide deaths
USA
Brazil
India
Mexico
UnitedKingdom
Italy
France
Peru
Spain
Iran
Colombia
Russia
SouthAfrica
Chile
Ecuador
Argentina
Belgium
Germany
Canada
Indonesia
Iraq
Bolivia
Turkey
Pakistan
Netherlands
Sweden
Egypt
China
Bangladesh
SaudiArabia
Romania
Philippines
Ukraine
Guatemala
Poland
Honduras
Switzerland
DominicanRepublic
Portugal
Kazakhstan
Algeria
Afghanistan
Morocco
Japan
Nigeria
Kyrgyzstan
Israel
Ethiopia
Sudan
Australia
ElSalvador
Austria
Serbia
Belarus
Bulgaria
Denmark
Hungary
Kenya
Yemen
Azerbaijan
Paraguay
CzechRepublic
Venezuela
Cameroon
Uzbekistan
USA
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Totaldeathstodate
Worldwide deaths
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-09-08 Summary: 10

11. Worldwide deaths
Peru
Belgium
Spain
Ecuador
Bolivia
Chile
UnitedKingdom
Sweden
Brazil
Italy
Mexico
USA
France
Colombia
Netherlands
Iran
SouthAfrica
Canada
Switzerland
Honduras
Argentina
Iraq
Guatemala
Kyrgyzstan
DominicanRepublic
Romania
Portugal
SaudiArabia
Israel
Russia
Germany
Denmark
ElSalvador
Kazakhstan
Serbia
Bulgaria
Austria
Turkey
Belarus
Azerbaijan
Egypt
Paraguay
Ukraine
Finland
Hungary
India
Poland
Afghanistan
Libya
Algeria
CzechRepublic
Morocco
Philippines
Australia
Pakistan
Indonesia
Sudan
Bangladesh
Greece
Zambia
Yemen
Nicaragua
Haiti
Cameroon
Senegal
USA
None
1 in 5,000
1 in 2,500
1 in 1,667
1 in 1,250
1 in 1,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Totaldeathstodate
Worldwide deaths
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-09-08 Summary: 11

12. Average daily deaths over past 7 days
Ecuador
Bolivia
Colombia
Peru
Argentina
Mexico
Brazil
Chile
Honduras
Iraq
Paraguay
SouthAfrica
USA
DominicanRepublic
Romania
Israel
Iran
Spain
Libya
Guatemala
Bulgaria
SaudiArabia
Morocco
Ukraine
India
ElSalvador
Australia
Russia
Turkey
Kazakhstan
Belarus
Philippines
Indonesia
Nepal
Greece
Azerbaijan
Poland
Portugal
Venezuela
Serbia
France
Algeria
Sweden
Bangladesh
Tunisia
Egypt
Ethiopia
Austria
Netherlands
Haiti
Uzbekistan
Belgium
Syria
CzechRepublic
Italy
Switzerland
Hungary
Zimbabwe
Angola
Togo
Canada
UnitedKingdom
Slovakia
Japan
Denmark
USA
None
1 in 100,000
1 in 50,000
1 in 33,333
1 in 25,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Averagedeaths/day
Average daily deaths over past 7 days
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-09-08 Summary: 12

13. Mortality Trends
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
USCaseRateMortality
Mortality Type:
13 day rolling median
Cumulative
Daily Raw
Daily vs. Cumulative US Case Rate Mortality
Last week excluded because deaths are often backdated
2020-09-08 Summary: 13

14. Change in New Cases per Day
New cases are:
Increasing > +3%
Increasing between +1% and +3%
No Change (-1% to +1%)
Decreasing between -1% and -3%
Decreasing > -3%
New cases by state as of 2020-09-08
2020-09-08 Summary: 14

15. Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
PercentofPeak
Daily Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
2020-09-08 Summary: 15

16. Change in New Deaths per Day
New deaths are:
Increasing > +0.5%
Increasing between +0.1% and +0.5%
No Change (-0.1% to +0.1%)
Decreasing between -0.1% and -0.5%
Decreasing > -0.5%
New deaths by state as of 2020-09-08
2020-09-08 Summary: 16

17. Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
PercentofPeak
Daily Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
2020-09-08 Summary: 17

18. Change in cases vs change in deaths
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
DC
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
-6
-3
0
3
6
-10 -5 0 5 10
Change in cases (%/day)
Changeindeaths(%/day)
Change in cases vs change in deaths over last 14 days as of 2020-09-08
2020-09-08 Summary: 18

19. Total US COVID-19 Cases
California
Texas
Florida
NewYork
Georgia
Illinois
Arizona
NewJersey
NorthCarolina
Tennessee
Louisiana
Pennsylvania
Alabama
Ohio
Massachusetts
Virginia
SouthCarolina
Michigan
Maryland
Indiana
Missouri
Mississippi
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Washington
Nevada
Iowa
Arkansas
Oklahoma
Colorado
Utah
Connecticut
Kentucky
Kansas
Nebraska
Idaho
Oregon
NewMexico
RhodeIsland
Delaware
SouthDakota
DistrictofColumbia
NorthDakota
WestVirginia
Hawaii
Montana
NewHampshire
Alaska
Maine
Wyoming
Vermont
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Totalcases
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Total US COVID-19 Cases
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.46, p governor: 0.8. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-08 Summary: 19

20. Total US COVID-19 Cases
Louisiana
Florida
Mississippi
Arizona
Alabama
Georgia
SouthCarolina
Tennessee
Nevada
Texas
NewYork
Iowa
NewJersey
Arkansas
RhodeIsland
DistrictofColumbia
Illinois
Idaho
California
Massachusetts
Delaware
Maryland
Nebraska
NorthDakota
SouthDakota
Utah
NorthCarolina
Oklahoma
Kansas
Missouri
Connecticut
Virginia
Indiana
Minnesota
Wisconsin
NewMexico
Kentucky
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Colorado
Washington
Alaska
Montana
Hawaii
Wyoming
Oregon
WestVirginia
NewHampshire
Maine
Vermont
None
1 in 100
1 in 50
1 in 33
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
TotalCases
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Total US COVID-19 Cases
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.69, p governor: 0.081. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-08 Summary: 20

21. Average US COVID-19 cases over the past
7 days
NorthDakota
SouthDakota
Iowa
Missouri
Tennessee
Arkansas
Alabama
Kansas
Oklahoma
Mississippi
SouthCarolina
Illinois
Georgia
Florida
Hawaii
Louisiana
Kentucky
NorthCarolina
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Idaho
Indiana
Texas
Nebraska
Nevada
Utah
Delaware
Montana
Virginia
California
Maryland
WestVirginia
Ohio
Alaska
Arizona
Michigan
RhodeIsland
DistrictofColumbia
Pennsylvania
Washington
NewMexico
Colorado
Oregon
Wyoming
NewJersey
NewYork
Connecticut
NewHampshire
Maine
Massachusetts
Vermont
None
1 in 10,000
1 in 5,000
1 in 3,333
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
NewCases/Day
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Average US COVID-19 cases over the past 7 days
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.007, p governor: 0.019. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-08 Summary: 21

22. Total US COVID-19 Deaths
NewYork
NewJersey
California
Texas
Florida
Massachusetts
Illinois
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Georgia
Arizona
Louisiana
Connecticut
Ohio
Maryland
Indiana
SouthCarolina
NorthCarolina
Virginia
Mississippi
Alabama
Colorado
Washington
Minnesota
Tennessee
Missouri
Nevada
Iowa
Wisconsin
RhodeIsland
Kentucky
Arkansas
Oklahoma
NewMexico
DistrictofColumbia
Delaware
Kansas
Oregon
NewHampshire
Utah
Nebraska
Idaho
WestVirginia
SouthDakota
NorthDakota
Maine
Montana
Hawaii
Vermont
Alaska
Wyoming
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
TotalDeaths
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Total US COVID-19 Deaths
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.065, p governor: 0.24. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-08 Summary: 22

23. Total US COVID-19 Deaths
NewJersey
NewYork
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Louisiana
RhodeIsland
Mississippi
DistrictofColumbia
Arizona
Michigan
Illinois
Maryland
Delaware
Pennsylvania
Georgia
SouthCarolina
Florida
Indiana
Texas
Alabama
Nevada
NewMexico
Iowa
Ohio
California
Colorado
Minnesota
NewHampshire
Virginia
Arkansas
NorthCarolina
Missouri
Tennessee
Washington
Kentucky
Oklahoma
Idaho
Nebraska
NorthDakota
Wisconsin
SouthDakota
Kansas
WestVirginia
Utah
Oregon
Montana
Maine
Vermont
Wyoming
Hawaii
Alaska
None
1 in 2,000
1 in 1,000
1 in 667
1 in 500
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
TotalDeaths
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Total US COVID-19 Deaths
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.028, p governor: 0.28. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-08 Summary: 23

24. Average US COVID-19 deaths over the past
7 days
Mississippi
Georgia
Arkansas
SouthCarolina
Louisiana
Florida
Texas
Nevada
Arizona
Missouri
Alabama
California
NorthCarolina
WestVirginia
NorthDakota
Iowa
Tennessee
NewMexico
Hawaii
Kentucky
Idaho
Oklahoma
Virginia
Illinois
Montana
Massachusetts
Kansas
Indiana
Pennsylvania
Wyoming
Maryland
RhodeIsland
Minnesota
Wisconsin
DistrictofColumbia
Alaska
SouthDakota
Washington
Michigan
Nebraska
Oregon
Colorado
Delaware
Utah
NewYork
NewJersey
Ohio
Maine
Connecticut
NewHampshire
Vermont
None
1 in 1,000,000
1 in 500,000
1 in 333,333
1 in 250,000
1 in 200,000
1 in 166,667
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Deaths/Day
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Average US COVID-19 deaths over the past 7 days
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.74, p governor: 0.025. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-08 Summary: 24

25. Daily testing trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Dailytestingfrommintomax
Daily testing trends from min to max
Line = Friedman's supersmoother
2020-09-08 Summary: 25

26. Change in daily tests over past 14 days
Hawaii
Minnesota
Maine
California
Vermont
Michigan
Washington
NewYork
Illinois
Connecticut
Oklahoma
NorthCarolina
Arkansas
Massachusetts
Kansas
Kentucky
NorthDakota
Montana
NewJersey
Indiana
SouthCarolina
Ohio
Mississippi
Iowa
DistrictofColumbia
SouthDakota
Utah
Missouri
Delaware
NewHampshire
Alaska
Texas
Maryland
Virginia
Wyoming
Pennsylvania
Oregon
Tennessee
Georgia
Colorado
NewMexico
Idaho
Alabama
Arizona
Louisiana
WestVirginia
Wisconsin
Nebraska
Florida
Nevada
RhodeIsland
-5.0
0.0
5.0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Changeindailytests(%/day)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Change in daily tests over past 14 days
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.39, p governor: 0.096. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-08 Summary: 26

27. Percent Tested
Alaska
NewYork
DistrictofColumbia
Louisiana
NewMexico
Illinois
Connecticut
NewJersey
Tennessee
California
Michigan
NorthDakota
Massachusetts
RhodeIsland
Delaware
WestVirginia
Arkansas
Montana
Oklahoma
NorthCarolina
Georgia
Vermont
Maryland
Wisconsin
Florida
Maine
Utah
Minnesota
Iowa
Ohio
Washington
Nevada
Alabama
Mississippi
Virginia
SouthCarolina
Nebraska
Kentucky
Texas
SouthDakota
Arizona
Missouri
Indiana
Hawaii
NewHampshire
Idaho
Kansas
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Wyoming
Colorado
0
20
40
60
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
PercentTested
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Percent Tested
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.037, p governor: 0.19. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-08 Summary: 27

28. Percent of Positive COVID Tests
Arizona
Mississippi
Florida
Alabama
Idaho
SouthCarolina
Texas
Nevada
Georgia
Kansas
Iowa
SouthDakota
Nebraska
Missouri
Indiana
Arkansas
Maryland
Pennsylvania
Utah
Colorado
Louisiana
RhodeIsland
Virginia
NorthCarolina
Delaware
Tennessee
Oklahoma
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Massachusetts
NorthDakota
NewJersey
Kentucky
California
Illinois
Ohio
Wyoming
NewYork
Washington
Oregon
DistrictofColumbia
Connecticut
Hawaii
Michigan
NewHampshire
NewMexico
Montana
WestVirginia
Alaska
Maine
Vermont
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
PercentofPositiveTests
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Percent of Positive COVID Tests
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.024, p governor: 0.0037. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-08 Summary: 28

29. Positive fraction trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Fractionpositivefrommintomax
Positive fraction trends from min to max
2020-09-08 Summary: 29

30. Change in positive tests over past 14 days
NorthDakota
SouthDakota
Montana
Hawaii
WestVirginia
Alabama
Missouri
Kansas
Iowa
Kentucky
Oklahoma
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Nebraska
Nevada
Utah
Wyoming
Tennessee
Arkansas
Mississippi
Idaho
Indiana
Oregon
SouthCarolina
Florida
Virginia
Alaska
Georgia
NewMexico
Louisiana
Texas
Pennsylvania
California
NorthCarolina
Maryland
Illinois
Delaware
Colorado
Arizona
Michigan
Washington
Ohio
NewHampshire
RhodeIsland
NewJersey
DistrictofColumbia
NewYork
Connecticut
Vermont
Maine
Massachusetts
-1.0
0.0
1.0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Changeinpositivetests(%/day)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Change in positive tests over past 14 days
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.013, p governor: 0.038. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-08 Summary: 30

31. Change in tests vs change in positive tests
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CACO
CT
DE
DC
FL GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
-1
0
1
-5.0 -2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5
Change in tests (%/day)
Changeinpositivetests(%/day)
Change in tests vs change in positive tests last 14 days as of 2020-09-08
Size of the state font reflects the number of deaths over the past 7 days.
2020-09-08 Summary: 31

32. Current hospitalizations as a percent of peak
since FebruaryHawaii
Missouri
Montana
NorthDakota
WestVirginia
Kansas
SouthDakota
Nebraska
Alaska
Wyoming
Kentucky
Oklahoma
Iowa
Arkansas
Idaho
Georgia
NorthCarolina
Virginia
Tennessee
Ohio
Mississippi
Utah
Alabama
Indiana
Nevada
Oregon
Washington
Minnesota
SouthCarolina
California
Wisconsin
Louisiana
Texas
NewMexico
Florida
Illinois
RhodeIsland
Maryland
Colorado
Delaware
Arizona
Michigan
Pennsylvania
DistrictofColumbia
Maine
Massachusetts
NewHampshire
NewJersey
Connecticut
Vermont
NewYork
0
30
60
90
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Hospitalizations(%ofpeak)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Current hospitalizations as a percent of peak since February
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.014, p governor: 0.044. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-08 Summary: 32

33. Hospitalizations trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Hospitalizationsfrommintomax
Hospitalizations trends from min to max
2020-09-08 Summary: 33

34. Change in hospitalizations over past 14
days
Montana
Delaware
SouthDakota
Hawaii
NorthDakota
Nebraska
Iowa
Connecticut
WestVirginia
Kansas
Utah
Missouri
NewJersey
DistrictofColumbia
Illinois
Michigan
Massachusetts
Pennsylvania
Georgia
Virginia
RhodeIsland
Kentucky
Oklahoma
NewMexico
Minnesota
Idaho
Wyoming
Alaska
Tennessee
Indiana
NorthCarolina
Arkansas
Ohio
NewYork
NewHampshire
Maryland
Oregon
Wisconsin
Colorado
Mississippi
Washington
Alabama
Maine
Louisiana
SouthCarolina
Nevada
California
Texas
Arizona
Florida
Vermont
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Changeinhospitalizations(%/day)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Change in hospitalizations over past 14 days
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.95, p governor: 0.58. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-08 Summary: 34

35. Change in New Cases per Day
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
NA
Trends by county as of 2020-09-08
NA = Inadequate data
2020-09-08 Summary: 35