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COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 18, 2020

This document provides an overview and analysis of COVID-19 cases and projections worldwide and in several locations. It summarizes data sources and models used in the analysis. Updates are typically provided daily, with some delays possible due to the author's clinical responsibilities. Charts and graphs presented on different slides provide current case and death numbers, projected trajectories, and comparisons between locations.

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Caveats and Comments 1 Overview: This is my analysis, not Stanford’s. My goal is to understand the trajectory of COVID. It is not confidential and can be freely shared. The R program code is available at https://github.com/StevenLShafer/COVID19/. The daily analysis are available at https://1drv.ms/u/s!AuOyHP_aTIy7rowrt2AjGpWm_frnEQ?e=KBcNbh. You are welcome to use the R code on GitHub for any purpose. I am attempting to keep the analysis and commentary apolitical. I am now including partisan lean as a metric to help understand the epidemic. I occasionally point out misrepresentations by government officials. I occasionally point out where government recommendations have placed Americans at increasing risk. I try to provide a daily update in the morning, except Sundays. My analysis my be delayed by my clinical responsibilities as a Stanford anesthesiologist. There is a lot of information on the figures. If something isn’t clear, please see the explanation on slide 2. Data sources: • USA Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv • USA Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv • USA Testing and Hospitalization Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/COVID19Tracking/covid-tracking-data/master/data/states_daily_4pm_et.csv • Global Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_global.csv • Global Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv • Global Testing Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/owid/covid-19-data/master/public/data/owid-covid-data.csv • Mobility Data: https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/Global_Mobility_Report.csv • Partisan Lean: MIT Election Data and Science Lab: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ/HEIJCQ • Ensemble Model: https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/raw/master/data-processed/COVIDhub-ensemble/2020-xx-xx-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv Models: 1. Future projections of case numbers are based on the Gompertz function (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gompertz_function): log 𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 = 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 + 𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 − 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 1 − 𝑒−𝑘 𝑡 . This is a naïve asymptotic model. k is the rate constant, such that log(2) / k = time to 50% rise. t is the number of days. Wikipedia The Gompertz function is estimated from the last 3 weeks of data for cumulative cases (red dots in the figures). Deaths are predicted from a log linear regression of deaths over the past 21 days. For the US, and individual states, I am also including the 98% prediction interval from the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/). 2. The rate of change in daily cases and deaths is the slope of delta cases / day over the last 14 days, divided by the average number of cases. Locations The locations for the modeling are where Pamela and I have family and friends, locations of interest to friends and colleagues, or countries in the news (e.g., China, South Korea, Sweden, Brazil) or with significant economic impact on the United States (e.g., Japan, Canada, Mexico). Locations are easy to add. Stay safe, well, resilient, and kind. Steve Shafer steven.shafer@Stanford.edu
2,586,092 152,804 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 Actual(points)/Predicted(line) Phase Pre-Model Modeled Deaths Tests USA projection as of 2020-05-27 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 Cases/Day Deaths/Day Cases: 1,662,302 (32,123) -- Deaths: 98,220 (829) -- Case Mortality: 5.9% -- Daily Change in Cases: -0.5% Explanation of the Figures 2 Brown dots: cumulative tests Red dots: cumulative cases used to estimate Gompertz function, presently set to last 3 weeks Red line: predicted cumulative cases based on the Gompertz function estimated from the red dots Red number: total cases on June 30th, based on the Gompertz function estimated from the red dots Black number: total Deaths on July 31th, based on log-linear regression of the past 21 days Black line: predicted cumulative deaths, based on a log linear regression of deaths over past 21 days. Axis for deaths / day, usually 1/10th of the axis for cases / day on the left side of the figure. Green line: linear regression over 8 days, used to calculate percent increase / decrease (see below) Daily change in cases, calculated as the slope of the green line (above left) / number of new cases yesterday. Case mortality: cumulative deaths / cumulative cases. Cases / day calculated from cumulative cases used to estimate the Gompertz function Cases / day calculated from cumulative cases not used to estimate the Gompertz function Deaths / day, axis is on the left Blue line: today Blue dots: cumulative cases not used to estimate Gompertz function Cumulative cases (yesterday’s cases) and cumulative deaths (yesterday’s deaths) Axis for cases / day. Axis for deaths / day appears to the right. Geographic location Date of analysis, also shown as blue vertical line below Purple wedge: 98% ensemble prediction interval from COVID-19 Forecast Hub (USA and US States only)
Worldwide 41,589,611 1,253,983 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 Cumulative Phase Pre-Model Modeled Deaths Worldwide projection as of 2020-09-18 10 1,000 100,000 CasesandDeaths/Day Cases: 30,174,582 (313,364) -- Deaths: 946,045 (5,456) -- Case Mortality: 3.1% -- Daily Change: +1.2% Cases, -0.6% Deaths 2020-09-18 Summary: 3
USA 8,087,686 237,730 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 Cumulative Phase Pre-Model Modeled Deaths Tests USA projection as of 2020-09-18 Mother'sDay MemorialDay July4th July15,2020 LaborDay 10 1,000 100,000 CasesandDeaths/Day Cases: 6,674,411 (44,360) -- Deaths: 197,633 (870) -- Case Mortality: 3.0% -- Daily Change: +0.7% Cases, +0.8% Deaths 2020-09-18 Summary: 4
Non-authoritarian Asian ensemble 133,253 2,820 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 Cumulative Phase Pre-Model Modeled Deaths Tests Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam (Population = 328 MM) Non-authoritarian Asian ensemble projection as of 2020-09-18 1.0 10.0 100.0 1,000.0 CasesandDeaths/Day Cases: 104,834 (627) -- Deaths: 1,960 (14) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: -0.9% Cases, -0.0% Deaths 2020-09-18 Summary: 5
Western Europe 3,252,158 162,065 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 Cumulative Phase Pre-Model Modeled Deaths Tests Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Netherlands, Luxembourg, and the UK (Population = 344MM) Western Europe projection as of 2020-09-18 10 1,000 100,000 CasesandDeaths/Day Cases: 2,197,053 (31,945) -- Deaths: 156,918 (272) -- Case Mortality: 7.1% -- Daily Change: +3.4% Cases, +5.8% Deaths 2020-09-18 Summary: 6
Comparison of COVID-19 Cases & Deaths between US & Europe Cases Deaths 42,578 35,259 868 216 3 10 30 100 300 1,000 3,000 10,000 30,000 100,000 Date DailyCasesandDeaths Location USA (318MM) Western Europe (344MM) Log plot of 7 day average Comparison of COVID-19 Cases & Deaths between US & Europe The numbers on the right are yesterday's figures, and will differ a bit from the plotted rolling mean 2020-09-18 Summary: 7
Worldwide cases USA India Brazil Russia Peru Colombia Mexico SouthAfrica Spain Argentina France Chile Iran UnitedKingdom Bangladesh SaudiArabia Iraq Pakistan Turkey Italy Philippines Germany Indonesia Israel Ukraine Canada Bolivia Ecuador Romania Kazakhstan DominicanRepublic Egypt Belgium Morocco Netherlands China Sweden Guatemala Japan Poland Belarus Honduras Ethiopia Portugal Venezuela Nepal Nigeria Uzbekistan Algeria Switzerland Ghana Kyrgyzstan CzechRepublic Afghanistan Azerbaijan Kenya Austria Serbia Paraguay ElSalvador Australia Libya SouthKorea Denmark Cameroon USA 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 Rank Totalcasestodate Worldwide cases Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000 2020-09-18 Summary: 8
Worldwide cases Chile Peru Israel Brazil USA Colombia Spain Argentina SouthAfrica Bolivia SaudiArabia DominicanRepublic Iraq Sweden Belgium Honduras Ecuador Kyrgyzstan Belarus Russia France Kazakhstan Switzerland UnitedKingdom Guatemala Iran Portugal Mexico Netherlands Italy Romania Azerbaijan India Paraguay Serbia Austria CzechRepublic Canada Libya Denmark Turkey ElSalvador Ukraine Germany Philippines Morocco Bulgaria Venezuela Bangladesh Nepal Poland Ghana Uzbekistan Pakistan Finland Hungary Algeria Afghanistan Greece Australia Tajikistan Egypt Zambia Slovakia Cameroon USA None 1 in 200 1 in 100 1 in 67 1 in 50 1 in 40 1 in 33 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 Rank Totalcasestodate Worldwide cases Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000 2020-09-18 Summary: 9
Average new cases over past 7 days Israel Argentina Spain Peru Brazil CzechRepublic Colombia France Iraq USA Paraguay Chile Libya Belgium Ecuador Netherlands India Austria Bolivia Honduras Hungary DominicanRepublic Ukraine Denmark Morocco Romania Switzerland Portugal UnitedKingdom Nepal Mexico Philippines Russia Guatemala Tunisia Iran Venezuela SouthAfrica Jordan Sweden Greece Slovakia Canada Italy SaudiArabia Turkey Uzbekistan Belarus Bulgaria Germany Azerbaijan Indonesia Poland Kyrgyzstan ElSalvador Bangladesh Serbia Finland Zambia Mozambique Ethiopia Algeria Angola Myanmar Tajikistan USA None 1 in 10,000 1 in 5,000 1 in 3,333 1 in 2,500 1 in 2,000 1 in 1,667 1 in 1,429 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 Rank Averagecases/day Average new cases over past 7 days Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000 2020-09-18 Summary: 10
Worldwide deaths USA Brazil India Mexico UnitedKingdom Italy Peru France Spain Iran Colombia Russia SouthAfrica Argentina Chile Ecuador Belgium Germany Canada Indonesia Iraq Bolivia Turkey Pakistan Netherlands Sweden Egypt Bangladesh Philippines China SaudiArabia Romania Ukraine Guatemala Poland Honduras Switzerland DominicanRepublic Portugal Morocco Kazakhstan Algeria Japan Afghanistan Israel Nigeria Kyrgyzstan Ethiopia Australia Sudan ElSalvador Belarus Austria Bulgaria Serbia Hungary Kenya Denmark Yemen Paraguay Azerbaijan Venezuela CzechRepublic Cameroon Uzbekistan USA 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 Rank Totaldeathstodate Worldwide deaths Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000 2020-09-18 Summary: 11
Worldwide deaths Peru Belgium Bolivia Ecuador Spain Chile UnitedKingdom Brazil Mexico Sweden USA Italy Colombia France Netherlands Iran SouthAfrica Argentina Canada Honduras Switzerland Iraq Guatemala DominicanRepublic Kyrgyzstan Romania Portugal Israel SaudiArabia Russia Germany Denmark ElSalvador Kazakhstan Bulgaria Serbia Turkey Austria Paraguay Belarus Ukraine India Azerbaijan Egypt Hungary Libya Finland Poland Afghanistan Morocco Philippines Algeria CzechRepublic Australia Indonesia Pakistan Sudan Bangladesh Greece Zambia Nicaragua Yemen Haiti Cameroon Senegal USA None 1 in 5,000 1 in 2,500 1 in 1,667 1 in 1,250 1 in 1,000 1 in 833 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 Rank Totaldeathstodate Worldwide deaths Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000 2020-09-18 Summary: 12
Average daily deaths over past 7 days Argentina Bolivia Colombia Brazil Peru Mexico Chile Ecuador USA Iraq Spain Iran Israel Paraguay Libya Romania SouthAfrica DominicanRepublic Guatemala Honduras Ukraine SaudiArabia Philippines India Morocco Russia Bulgaria Turkey Belarus France CzechRepublic ElSalvador Indonesia Portugal Hungary Tunisia Switzerland Greece Poland Venezuela Nepal Sweden Kazakhstan Australia Zambia Algeria Azerbaijan UnitedKingdom Belgium Bangladesh Netherlands Uzbekistan Egypt Angola Italy Serbia Canada Austria Denmark Jordan Ethiopia Syria Myanmar Kenya Togo USA None 1 in 1,000,000 1 in 500,000 1 in 333,333 1 in 250,000 1 in 200,000 1 in 166,667 1 in 142,857 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 Rank Averagedeaths/day Average daily deaths over past 7 days Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000 2020-09-18 Summary: 13
Mortality Trends 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 USCaseRateMortality Mortality Type: 13 day rolling median Cumulative Daily Raw Daily vs. Cumulative US Case Rate Mortality Last week excluded because deaths are often backdated 2020-09-18 Summary: 14
Change in New Cases per Day New cases are: Increasing > +3% Increasing between +1% and +3% No Change (-1% to +1%) Decreasing between -1% and -3% Decreasing > -3% New cases by state as of 2020-09-18 2020-09-18 Summary: 15
Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases HI TX FL OK LA MS AL GA AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA WI VT NH AK ME 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 PercentofPeak Daily Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases 2020-09-18 Summary: 16
Change in New Deaths per Day New deaths are: Increasing > +0.5% Increasing between +0.1% and +0.5% No Change (-0.1% to +0.1%) Decreasing between -0.1% and -0.5% Decreasing > -0.5% New deaths by state as of 2020-09-18 2020-09-18 Summary: 17
Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths HI TX FL OK LA MS AL GA AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA WI VT NH AK ME 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 PercentofPeak Daily Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths 2020-09-18 Summary: 18
Change in cases vs. change in deaths over last 14 days AL AK AZ AR CA CO CT DE DC FL GA HI ID IL IN IA KS KY LA ME MA MI MN MS MO MT NV NH NJNC ND OK OR PA RI SC SD TX UT VT WA WV WI WY -6 -3 0 3 6 -6 -3 0 3 6 Change in cases (%/day) Changeindeaths(%/day) Change in cases vs. change in deaths over last 14 days as of 2020-09-18 Size is proportional total cases per capita 2020-09-18 Summary: 19
Total US COVID-19 Cases California Texas Florida NewYork Georgia Illinois Arizona NewJersey NorthCarolina Tennessee Louisiana Pennsylvania Alabama Ohio Virginia SouthCarolina Massachusetts Michigan Maryland Missouri Indiana Wisconsin Mississippi Minnesota Washington Iowa Nevada Oklahoma Arkansas Colorado Utah Kentucky Connecticut Kansas Nebraska Idaho Oregon NewMexico RhodeIsland Delaware SouthDakota NorthDakota DistrictofColumbia WestVirginia Hawaii Montana NewHampshire Alaska Maine Wyoming Vermont 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank Totalcases Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Total US COVID-19 Cases p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.48, p governor: 0.8. NB: association != causation. 2020-09-18 Summary: 20
Total US COVID-19 Cases Louisiana Florida Mississippi Arizona Alabama Georgia SouthCarolina Tennessee Iowa Arkansas Nevada Texas NewYork NewJersey RhodeIsland NorthDakota Illinois DistrictofColumbia Nebraska Idaho SouthDakota Delaware California Maryland Utah Massachusetts Oklahoma NorthCarolina Missouri Kansas Indiana Wisconsin Virginia Connecticut Minnesota Kentucky NewMexico Michigan Ohio Pennsylvania Colorado Washington Montana Alaska Wyoming Hawaii WestVirginia Oregon NewHampshire Maine Vermont None 1 in 100 1 in 50 1 in 33 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank TotalCases Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Total US COVID-19 Cases p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.3, p governor: 0.038. NB: association != causation. 2020-09-18 Summary: 21
Average US COVID-19 cases over the past 7 days NorthDakota SouthDakota Arkansas Missouri Oklahoma Wisconsin SouthCarolina Iowa Tennessee Utah Nebraska Alabama Mississippi Kansas Georgia Idaho Kentucky Texas Illinois Montana Indiana Delaware Florida NorthCarolina Virginia Louisiana WestVirginia Alaska Wyoming Minnesota Maryland RhodeIsland Nevada Ohio Arizona California Hawaii Michigan DistrictofColumbia Colorado Pennsylvania NewMexico Connecticut Washington NewJersey Oregon NewYork NewHampshire Maine Vermont Massachusetts None 1 in 10,000 1 in 5,000 1 in 3,333 1 in 2,500 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank NewCases/Day Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Average US COVID-19 cases over the past 7 days p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.00034, p governor: 0.00086. NB: association != causation. 2020-09-18 Summary: 22
Total US COVID-19 Deaths NewYork NewJersey Texas California Florida Massachusetts Illinois Pennsylvania Michigan Georgia Arizona Louisiana Ohio Connecticut Maryland Indiana NorthCarolina SouthCarolina Virginia Mississippi Alabama Tennessee Washington Colorado Minnesota Missouri Nevada Iowa Wisconsin Arkansas Kentucky RhodeIsland Oklahoma NewMexico Delaware DistrictofColumbia Kansas Oregon Nebraska NewHampshire Utah Idaho WestVirginia SouthDakota NorthDakota Montana Maine Hawaii Vermont Wyoming Alaska 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank TotalDeaths Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Total US COVID-19 Deaths p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.066, p governor: 0.28. NB: association != causation. 2020-09-18 Summary: 23
Total US COVID-19 Deaths NewJersey NewYork Massachusetts Connecticut Louisiana RhodeIsland Mississippi DistrictofColumbia Arizona Michigan Illinois Maryland Delaware Pennsylvania SouthCarolina Georgia Florida Indiana Texas Alabama Nevada NewMexico Iowa Ohio Arkansas California Minnesota Colorado Virginia NewHampshire Tennessee NorthCarolina Missouri Washington Kentucky Idaho NorthDakota Oklahoma Nebraska SouthDakota Wisconsin Kansas WestVirginia Utah Montana Oregon Maine Vermont Wyoming Hawaii Alaska None 1 in 2,000 1 in 1,000 1 in 667 1 in 500 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank TotalDeaths Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Total US COVID-19 Deaths p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.027, p governor: 0.33. NB: association != causation. 2020-09-18 Summary: 24
Average US COVID-19 deaths over the past 7 days Arkansas Mississippi Florida SouthCarolina Louisiana Tennessee NorthDakota Georgia Texas Nevada Kansas Virginia Alabama WestVirginia SouthDakota Ohio RhodeIsland Arizona NorthCarolina California Montana Kentucky Oklahoma Massachusetts Illinois Iowa Wyoming Missouri Minnesota Indiana Hawaii NewMexico Nebraska Delaware Wisconsin Idaho Pennsylvania Maryland Washington Michigan Oregon DistrictofColumbia NewJersey Colorado Connecticut NewHampshire Utah Maine Alaska NewYork Vermont None 1 in 500,000 1 in 250,000 1 in 166,667 1 in 125,000 1 in 100,000 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank Deaths/Day Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Average US COVID-19 deaths over the past 7 days p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.34, p governor: 0.085. NB: association != causation. 2020-09-18 Summary: 25
Daily testing trends HI TX FL OK LA MS AL GA AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA WI VT NH AK ME min max min max min max min max min max min max min max min max Dailytestingfrommintomax Daily testing trends from min to max Line = Friedman's supersmoother 2020-09-18 Summary: 26
Change in daily tests over past 14 days Arizona Minnesota Maine Montana Ohio Missouri Kentucky Wyoming Oklahoma Michigan Illinois Connecticut Washington SouthCarolina Indiana NorthCarolina NorthDakota Arkansas Texas NewYork Kansas Nebraska Massachusetts NewJersey Utah Virginia SouthDakota Iowa Pennsylvania NewHampshire Tennessee Delaware Colorado WestVirginia DistrictofColumbia Mississippi Oregon California Wisconsin Georgia Maryland Florida Louisiana NewMexico Alaska Nevada Idaho RhodeIsland Alabama Hawaii Vermont -6.0 -3.0 0.0 3.0 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank Changeindailytests(%/day) Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Change in daily tests over past 14 days p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.81, p governor: 0.61. NB: association != causation. 2020-09-18 Summary: 27
Percent Tested Alaska NewYork DistrictofColumbia Louisiana NewMexico Connecticut Illinois Tennessee NewJersey California Michigan RhodeIsland Massachusetts NorthDakota Arkansas WestVirginia Montana Delaware Oklahoma Maine NorthCarolina Georgia Maryland Vermont Wisconsin Florida Ohio Kentucky Utah Minnesota Iowa Washington Virginia Nebraska Alabama Mississippi Nevada SouthCarolina SouthDakota Missouri Indiana Hawaii Arizona Texas NewHampshire Kansas Idaho Wyoming Oregon Pennsylvania Colorado 0 20 40 60 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank PercentTested Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Percent Tested p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.035, p governor: 0.13. NB: association != causation. 2020-09-18 Summary: 28
Percent of Positive COVID Tests Arizona Mississippi Alabama Florida Idaho Texas SouthCarolina Nevada Georgia Kansas Iowa SouthDakota Nebraska Missouri Indiana Arkansas Utah Maryland Pennsylvania Colorado Louisiana Virginia RhodeIsland NorthDakota Delaware Wisconsin Oklahoma NorthCarolina Tennessee Minnesota Massachusetts NewJersey California Kentucky Illinois Ohio Wyoming Washington Oregon NewYork DistrictofColumbia Hawaii Connecticut Michigan NewHampshire Montana NewMexico WestVirginia Alaska Maine Vermont 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank PercentofPositiveTests Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Percent of Positive COVID Tests p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.014, p governor: 0.0028. NB: association != causation. 2020-09-18 Summary: 29
Positive fraction trends HI TX FL OK LA MS AL GA AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA WI VT NH AK ME min max min max min max min max min max min max min max min max Fractionpositivefrommintomax Positive fraction trends from min to max 2020-09-18 Summary: 30
Change in positive tests over past 14 days NorthDakota Wisconsin WestVirginia SouthDakota Alaska Texas Montana Utah Missouri Kansas Oklahoma Iowa Idaho Minnesota Alabama Delaware Nebraska Oregon Florida Mississippi Virginia SouthCarolina Tennessee Arkansas Pennsylvania Nevada Maryland Georgia Wyoming NewHampshire Colorado NewMexico Vermont Indiana Michigan Washington Hawaii California Illinois Arizona NorthCarolina Louisiana Ohio RhodeIsland Kentucky Massachusetts NewJersey DistrictofColumbia NewYork Connecticut Maine -1.0 0.0 1.0 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank Changeinpositivetests(%/day) Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Change in positive tests over past 14 days p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.0021, p governor: 0.001. NB: association != causation. 2020-09-18 Summary: 31
Change in tests vs. change in positive tests over last 14 days AL AK AZ AR CA CO CT DE DC FL GA HI ID IL IN IA KY LA ME MA MN MO MT NE NV NH NM NY ND RI SC SD UT VT WVWI -1 0 1 -5.0 -2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0 Change in tests (%/day) Changeinpositivetests(%/day) Change in tests vs. change in positive tests over last 14 days as of 2020-09-18 Size is proportional daily deaths per capita over the past 7 days 2020-09-18 Summary: 32
Current hospitalizations as a percent of peak since FebruaryMissouri SouthDakota WestVirginia NorthDakota Alaska Nebraska Oklahoma Wyoming Kentucky Montana Hawaii NorthCarolina Arkansas Kansas Iowa Utah Virginia Idaho Georgia Tennessee Ohio Wisconsin Oregon Indiana Mississippi SouthCarolina Alabama Washington Minnesota California Nevada Louisiana Illinois Texas NewMexico Florida RhodeIsland DistrictofColumbia Maine Colorado Delaware Maryland Michigan Pennsylvania Arizona Massachusetts Vermont NewHampshire NewJersey Connecticut NewYork 0 30 60 90 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank Hospitalizations(%ofpeak) Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Current hospitalizations as a percent of peak since February p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.006, p governor: 0.033. NB: association != causation. 2020-09-18 Summary: 33
Hospitalizations trends HI TX FL OK LA MS AL GA AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA WI VT NH AK ME min max min max min max min max min max min max min max min max Hospitalizationsfrommintomax Hospitalizations trends from min to max 2020-09-18 Summary: 34
Change in hospitalizations over past 14 days SouthDakota Maine DistrictofColumbia Wisconsin Utah Connecticut NewYork Delaware WestVirginia Missouri Massachusetts Oregon RhodeIsland Nebraska NorthCarolina Oklahoma Alaska NorthDakota NewJersey Illinois Michigan Kentucky Wyoming Indiana Virginia Arkansas Pennsylvania Maryland NewMexico NewHampshire Colorado Iowa Idaho Tennessee Ohio Georgia Kansas SouthCarolina Minnesota Montana Texas Washington Hawaii Alabama California Louisiana Mississippi Vermont Arizona Florida Nevada -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank Changeinhospitalizations(%/day) Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Change in hospitalizations over past 14 days p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.59, p governor: 0.53. NB: association != causation. 2020-09-18 Summary: 35
Change in New Cases per Day Direction Increasing > +2% Increasing between +0.5% and +2% No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%) Decreasing between -0.5% and -2% Decreasing > -2% NA Trends by county as of 2020-09-18 NA = Inadequate data 2020-09-18 Summary: 36

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COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 18, 2020

  • 1.
    Caveats and Comments 1 Overview: Thisis my analysis, not Stanford’s. My goal is to understand the trajectory of COVID. It is not confidential and can be freely shared. The R program code is available at https://github.com/StevenLShafer/COVID19/. The daily analysis are available at https://1drv.ms/u/s!AuOyHP_aTIy7rowrt2AjGpWm_frnEQ?e=KBcNbh. You are welcome to use the R code on GitHub for any purpose. I am attempting to keep the analysis and commentary apolitical. I am now including partisan lean as a metric to help understand the epidemic. I occasionally point out misrepresentations by government officials. I occasionally point out where government recommendations have placed Americans at increasing risk. I try to provide a daily update in the morning, except Sundays. My analysis my be delayed by my clinical responsibilities as a Stanford anesthesiologist. There is a lot of information on the figures. If something isn’t clear, please see the explanation on slide 2. Data sources: • USA Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv • USA Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv • USA Testing and Hospitalization Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/COVID19Tracking/covid-tracking-data/master/data/states_daily_4pm_et.csv • Global Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_global.csv • Global Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv • Global Testing Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/owid/covid-19-data/master/public/data/owid-covid-data.csv • Mobility Data: https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/Global_Mobility_Report.csv • Partisan Lean: MIT Election Data and Science Lab: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ/HEIJCQ • Ensemble Model: https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/raw/master/data-processed/COVIDhub-ensemble/2020-xx-xx-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv Models: 1. Future projections of case numbers are based on the Gompertz function (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gompertz_function): log 𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 = 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 + 𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 − 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 1 − 𝑒−𝑘 𝑡 . This is a naïve asymptotic model. k is the rate constant, such that log(2) / k = time to 50% rise. t is the number of days. Wikipedia The Gompertz function is estimated from the last 3 weeks of data for cumulative cases (red dots in the figures). Deaths are predicted from a log linear regression of deaths over the past 21 days. For the US, and individual states, I am also including the 98% prediction interval from the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/). 2. The rate of change in daily cases and deaths is the slope of delta cases / day over the last 14 days, divided by the average number of cases. Locations The locations for the modeling are where Pamela and I have family and friends, locations of interest to friends and colleagues, or countries in the news (e.g., China, South Korea, Sweden, Brazil) or with significant economic impact on the United States (e.g., Japan, Canada, Mexico). Locations are easy to add. Stay safe, well, resilient, and kind. Steve Shafer steven.shafer@Stanford.edu
  • 2.
    2,586,092 152,804 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 Actual(points)/Predicted(line) Phase Pre-Model Modeled Deaths Tests USA projection asof 2020-05-27 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 Cases/Day Deaths/Day Cases: 1,662,302 (32,123) -- Deaths: 98,220 (829) -- Case Mortality: 5.9% -- Daily Change in Cases: -0.5% Explanation of the Figures 2 Brown dots: cumulative tests Red dots: cumulative cases used to estimate Gompertz function, presently set to last 3 weeks Red line: predicted cumulative cases based on the Gompertz function estimated from the red dots Red number: total cases on June 30th, based on the Gompertz function estimated from the red dots Black number: total Deaths on July 31th, based on log-linear regression of the past 21 days Black line: predicted cumulative deaths, based on a log linear regression of deaths over past 21 days. Axis for deaths / day, usually 1/10th of the axis for cases / day on the left side of the figure. Green line: linear regression over 8 days, used to calculate percent increase / decrease (see below) Daily change in cases, calculated as the slope of the green line (above left) / number of new cases yesterday. Case mortality: cumulative deaths / cumulative cases. Cases / day calculated from cumulative cases used to estimate the Gompertz function Cases / day calculated from cumulative cases not used to estimate the Gompertz function Deaths / day, axis is on the left Blue line: today Blue dots: cumulative cases not used to estimate Gompertz function Cumulative cases (yesterday’s cases) and cumulative deaths (yesterday’s deaths) Axis for cases / day. Axis for deaths / day appears to the right. Geographic location Date of analysis, also shown as blue vertical line below Purple wedge: 98% ensemble prediction interval from COVID-19 Forecast Hub (USA and US States only)
  • 3.
    Worldwide 41,589,611 1,253,983 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 Cumulative Phase Pre-Model Modeled Deaths Worldwide projection asof 2020-09-18 10 1,000 100,000 CasesandDeaths/Day Cases: 30,174,582 (313,364) -- Deaths: 946,045 (5,456) -- Case Mortality: 3.1% -- Daily Change: +1.2% Cases, -0.6% Deaths 2020-09-18 Summary: 3
  • 4.
    USA 8,087,686 237,730 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 Cumulative Phase Pre-Model Modeled Deaths Tests USA projection asof 2020-09-18 Mother'sDay MemorialDay July4th July15,2020 LaborDay 10 1,000 100,000 CasesandDeaths/Day Cases: 6,674,411 (44,360) -- Deaths: 197,633 (870) -- Case Mortality: 3.0% -- Daily Change: +0.7% Cases, +0.8% Deaths 2020-09-18 Summary: 4
  • 5.
    Non-authoritarian Asian ensemble 133,253 2,820 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 Cumulative Phase Pre-Model Modeled Deaths Tests Japan,South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam (Population = 328 MM) Non-authoritarian Asian ensemble projection as of 2020-09-18 1.0 10.0 100.0 1,000.0 CasesandDeaths/Day Cases: 104,834 (627) -- Deaths: 1,960 (14) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: -0.9% Cases, -0.0% Deaths 2020-09-18 Summary: 5
  • 6.
    Western Europe 3,252,158 162,065 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 Cumulative Phase Pre-Model Modeled Deaths Tests Belgium, France,Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Netherlands, Luxembourg, and the UK (Population = 344MM) Western Europe projection as of 2020-09-18 10 1,000 100,000 CasesandDeaths/Day Cases: 2,197,053 (31,945) -- Deaths: 156,918 (272) -- Case Mortality: 7.1% -- Daily Change: +3.4% Cases, +5.8% Deaths 2020-09-18 Summary: 6
  • 7.
    Comparison of COVID-19Cases & Deaths between US & Europe Cases Deaths 42,578 35,259 868 216 3 10 30 100 300 1,000 3,000 10,000 30,000 100,000 Date DailyCasesandDeaths Location USA (318MM) Western Europe (344MM) Log plot of 7 day average Comparison of COVID-19 Cases & Deaths between US & Europe The numbers on the right are yesterday's figures, and will differ a bit from the plotted rolling mean 2020-09-18 Summary: 7
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
    Average new casesover past 7 days Israel Argentina Spain Peru Brazil CzechRepublic Colombia France Iraq USA Paraguay Chile Libya Belgium Ecuador Netherlands India Austria Bolivia Honduras Hungary DominicanRepublic Ukraine Denmark Morocco Romania Switzerland Portugal UnitedKingdom Nepal Mexico Philippines Russia Guatemala Tunisia Iran Venezuela SouthAfrica Jordan Sweden Greece Slovakia Canada Italy SaudiArabia Turkey Uzbekistan Belarus Bulgaria Germany Azerbaijan Indonesia Poland Kyrgyzstan ElSalvador Bangladesh Serbia Finland Zambia Mozambique Ethiopia Algeria Angola Myanmar Tajikistan USA None 1 in 10,000 1 in 5,000 1 in 3,333 1 in 2,500 1 in 2,000 1 in 1,667 1 in 1,429 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 Rank Averagecases/day Average new cases over past 7 days Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000 2020-09-18 Summary: 10
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
    Average daily deathsover past 7 days Argentina Bolivia Colombia Brazil Peru Mexico Chile Ecuador USA Iraq Spain Iran Israel Paraguay Libya Romania SouthAfrica DominicanRepublic Guatemala Honduras Ukraine SaudiArabia Philippines India Morocco Russia Bulgaria Turkey Belarus France CzechRepublic ElSalvador Indonesia Portugal Hungary Tunisia Switzerland Greece Poland Venezuela Nepal Sweden Kazakhstan Australia Zambia Algeria Azerbaijan UnitedKingdom Belgium Bangladesh Netherlands Uzbekistan Egypt Angola Italy Serbia Canada Austria Denmark Jordan Ethiopia Syria Myanmar Kenya Togo USA None 1 in 1,000,000 1 in 500,000 1 in 333,333 1 in 250,000 1 in 200,000 1 in 166,667 1 in 142,857 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 Rank Averagedeaths/day Average daily deaths over past 7 days Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000 2020-09-18 Summary: 13
  • 14.
    Mortality Trends 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 USCaseRateMortality Mortality Type: 13day rolling median Cumulative Daily Raw Daily vs. Cumulative US Case Rate Mortality Last week excluded because deaths are often backdated 2020-09-18 Summary: 14
  • 15.
    Change in NewCases per Day New cases are: Increasing > +3% Increasing between +1% and +3% No Change (-1% to +1%) Decreasing between -1% and -3% Decreasing > -3% New cases by state as of 2020-09-18 2020-09-18 Summary: 15
  • 16.
    Cases as aPercent of Peak Cases HI TX FL OK LA MS AL GA AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA WI VT NH AK ME 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 PercentofPeak Daily Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases 2020-09-18 Summary: 16
  • 17.
    Change in NewDeaths per Day New deaths are: Increasing > +0.5% Increasing between +0.1% and +0.5% No Change (-0.1% to +0.1%) Decreasing between -0.1% and -0.5% Decreasing > -0.5% New deaths by state as of 2020-09-18 2020-09-18 Summary: 17
  • 18.
    Deaths as aPercent of Peak Deaths HI TX FL OK LA MS AL GA AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA WI VT NH AK ME 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 PercentofPeak Daily Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths 2020-09-18 Summary: 18
  • 19.
    Change in casesvs. change in deaths over last 14 days AL AK AZ AR CA CO CT DE DC FL GA HI ID IL IN IA KS KY LA ME MA MI MN MS MO MT NV NH NJNC ND OK OR PA RI SC SD TX UT VT WA WV WI WY -6 -3 0 3 6 -6 -3 0 3 6 Change in cases (%/day) Changeindeaths(%/day) Change in cases vs. change in deaths over last 14 days as of 2020-09-18 Size is proportional total cases per capita 2020-09-18 Summary: 19
  • 20.
    Total US COVID-19Cases California Texas Florida NewYork Georgia Illinois Arizona NewJersey NorthCarolina Tennessee Louisiana Pennsylvania Alabama Ohio Virginia SouthCarolina Massachusetts Michigan Maryland Missouri Indiana Wisconsin Mississippi Minnesota Washington Iowa Nevada Oklahoma Arkansas Colorado Utah Kentucky Connecticut Kansas Nebraska Idaho Oregon NewMexico RhodeIsland Delaware SouthDakota NorthDakota DistrictofColumbia WestVirginia Hawaii Montana NewHampshire Alaska Maine Wyoming Vermont 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank Totalcases Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Total US COVID-19 Cases p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.48, p governor: 0.8. NB: association != causation. 2020-09-18 Summary: 20
  • 21.
    Total US COVID-19Cases Louisiana Florida Mississippi Arizona Alabama Georgia SouthCarolina Tennessee Iowa Arkansas Nevada Texas NewYork NewJersey RhodeIsland NorthDakota Illinois DistrictofColumbia Nebraska Idaho SouthDakota Delaware California Maryland Utah Massachusetts Oklahoma NorthCarolina Missouri Kansas Indiana Wisconsin Virginia Connecticut Minnesota Kentucky NewMexico Michigan Ohio Pennsylvania Colorado Washington Montana Alaska Wyoming Hawaii WestVirginia Oregon NewHampshire Maine Vermont None 1 in 100 1 in 50 1 in 33 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank TotalCases Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Total US COVID-19 Cases p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.3, p governor: 0.038. NB: association != causation. 2020-09-18 Summary: 21
  • 22.
    Average US COVID-19cases over the past 7 days NorthDakota SouthDakota Arkansas Missouri Oklahoma Wisconsin SouthCarolina Iowa Tennessee Utah Nebraska Alabama Mississippi Kansas Georgia Idaho Kentucky Texas Illinois Montana Indiana Delaware Florida NorthCarolina Virginia Louisiana WestVirginia Alaska Wyoming Minnesota Maryland RhodeIsland Nevada Ohio Arizona California Hawaii Michigan DistrictofColumbia Colorado Pennsylvania NewMexico Connecticut Washington NewJersey Oregon NewYork NewHampshire Maine Vermont Massachusetts None 1 in 10,000 1 in 5,000 1 in 3,333 1 in 2,500 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank NewCases/Day Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Average US COVID-19 cases over the past 7 days p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.00034, p governor: 0.00086. NB: association != causation. 2020-09-18 Summary: 22
  • 23.
    Total US COVID-19Deaths NewYork NewJersey Texas California Florida Massachusetts Illinois Pennsylvania Michigan Georgia Arizona Louisiana Ohio Connecticut Maryland Indiana NorthCarolina SouthCarolina Virginia Mississippi Alabama Tennessee Washington Colorado Minnesota Missouri Nevada Iowa Wisconsin Arkansas Kentucky RhodeIsland Oklahoma NewMexico Delaware DistrictofColumbia Kansas Oregon Nebraska NewHampshire Utah Idaho WestVirginia SouthDakota NorthDakota Montana Maine Hawaii Vermont Wyoming Alaska 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank TotalDeaths Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Total US COVID-19 Deaths p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.066, p governor: 0.28. NB: association != causation. 2020-09-18 Summary: 23
  • 24.
    Total US COVID-19Deaths NewJersey NewYork Massachusetts Connecticut Louisiana RhodeIsland Mississippi DistrictofColumbia Arizona Michigan Illinois Maryland Delaware Pennsylvania SouthCarolina Georgia Florida Indiana Texas Alabama Nevada NewMexico Iowa Ohio Arkansas California Minnesota Colorado Virginia NewHampshire Tennessee NorthCarolina Missouri Washington Kentucky Idaho NorthDakota Oklahoma Nebraska SouthDakota Wisconsin Kansas WestVirginia Utah Montana Oregon Maine Vermont Wyoming Hawaii Alaska None 1 in 2,000 1 in 1,000 1 in 667 1 in 500 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank TotalDeaths Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Total US COVID-19 Deaths p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.027, p governor: 0.33. NB: association != causation. 2020-09-18 Summary: 24
  • 25.
    Average US COVID-19deaths over the past 7 days Arkansas Mississippi Florida SouthCarolina Louisiana Tennessee NorthDakota Georgia Texas Nevada Kansas Virginia Alabama WestVirginia SouthDakota Ohio RhodeIsland Arizona NorthCarolina California Montana Kentucky Oklahoma Massachusetts Illinois Iowa Wyoming Missouri Minnesota Indiana Hawaii NewMexico Nebraska Delaware Wisconsin Idaho Pennsylvania Maryland Washington Michigan Oregon DistrictofColumbia NewJersey Colorado Connecticut NewHampshire Utah Maine Alaska NewYork Vermont None 1 in 500,000 1 in 250,000 1 in 166,667 1 in 125,000 1 in 100,000 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank Deaths/Day Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Average US COVID-19 deaths over the past 7 days p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.34, p governor: 0.085. NB: association != causation. 2020-09-18 Summary: 25
  • 26.
    Daily testing trends HITX FL OK LA MS AL GA AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA WI VT NH AK ME min max min max min max min max min max min max min max min max Dailytestingfrommintomax Daily testing trends from min to max Line = Friedman's supersmoother 2020-09-18 Summary: 26
  • 27.
    Change in dailytests over past 14 days Arizona Minnesota Maine Montana Ohio Missouri Kentucky Wyoming Oklahoma Michigan Illinois Connecticut Washington SouthCarolina Indiana NorthCarolina NorthDakota Arkansas Texas NewYork Kansas Nebraska Massachusetts NewJersey Utah Virginia SouthDakota Iowa Pennsylvania NewHampshire Tennessee Delaware Colorado WestVirginia DistrictofColumbia Mississippi Oregon California Wisconsin Georgia Maryland Florida Louisiana NewMexico Alaska Nevada Idaho RhodeIsland Alabama Hawaii Vermont -6.0 -3.0 0.0 3.0 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank Changeindailytests(%/day) Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Change in daily tests over past 14 days p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.81, p governor: 0.61. NB: association != causation. 2020-09-18 Summary: 27
  • 28.
  • 29.
    Percent of PositiveCOVID Tests Arizona Mississippi Alabama Florida Idaho Texas SouthCarolina Nevada Georgia Kansas Iowa SouthDakota Nebraska Missouri Indiana Arkansas Utah Maryland Pennsylvania Colorado Louisiana Virginia RhodeIsland NorthDakota Delaware Wisconsin Oklahoma NorthCarolina Tennessee Minnesota Massachusetts NewJersey California Kentucky Illinois Ohio Wyoming Washington Oregon NewYork DistrictofColumbia Hawaii Connecticut Michigan NewHampshire Montana NewMexico WestVirginia Alaska Maine Vermont 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank PercentofPositiveTests Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Percent of Positive COVID Tests p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.014, p governor: 0.0028. NB: association != causation. 2020-09-18 Summary: 29
  • 30.
    Positive fraction trends HITX FL OK LA MS AL GA AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA WI VT NH AK ME min max min max min max min max min max min max min max min max Fractionpositivefrommintomax Positive fraction trends from min to max 2020-09-18 Summary: 30
  • 31.
    Change in positivetests over past 14 days NorthDakota Wisconsin WestVirginia SouthDakota Alaska Texas Montana Utah Missouri Kansas Oklahoma Iowa Idaho Minnesota Alabama Delaware Nebraska Oregon Florida Mississippi Virginia SouthCarolina Tennessee Arkansas Pennsylvania Nevada Maryland Georgia Wyoming NewHampshire Colorado NewMexico Vermont Indiana Michigan Washington Hawaii California Illinois Arizona NorthCarolina Louisiana Ohio RhodeIsland Kentucky Massachusetts NewJersey DistrictofColumbia NewYork Connecticut Maine -1.0 0.0 1.0 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank Changeinpositivetests(%/day) Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Change in positive tests over past 14 days p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.0021, p governor: 0.001. NB: association != causation. 2020-09-18 Summary: 31
  • 32.
    Change in testsvs. change in positive tests over last 14 days AL AK AZ AR CA CO CT DE DC FL GA HI ID IL IN IA KY LA ME MA MN MO MT NE NV NH NM NY ND RI SC SD UT VT WVWI -1 0 1 -5.0 -2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0 Change in tests (%/day) Changeinpositivetests(%/day) Change in tests vs. change in positive tests over last 14 days as of 2020-09-18 Size is proportional daily deaths per capita over the past 7 days 2020-09-18 Summary: 32
  • 33.
    Current hospitalizations asa percent of peak since FebruaryMissouri SouthDakota WestVirginia NorthDakota Alaska Nebraska Oklahoma Wyoming Kentucky Montana Hawaii NorthCarolina Arkansas Kansas Iowa Utah Virginia Idaho Georgia Tennessee Ohio Wisconsin Oregon Indiana Mississippi SouthCarolina Alabama Washington Minnesota California Nevada Louisiana Illinois Texas NewMexico Florida RhodeIsland DistrictofColumbia Maine Colorado Delaware Maryland Michigan Pennsylvania Arizona Massachusetts Vermont NewHampshire NewJersey Connecticut NewYork 0 30 60 90 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank Hospitalizations(%ofpeak) Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Current hospitalizations as a percent of peak since February p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.006, p governor: 0.033. NB: association != causation. 2020-09-18 Summary: 33
  • 34.
    Hospitalizations trends HI TXFL OK LA MS AL GA AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA WI VT NH AK ME min max min max min max min max min max min max min max min max Hospitalizationsfrommintomax Hospitalizations trends from min to max 2020-09-18 Summary: 34
  • 35.
    Change in hospitalizationsover past 14 days SouthDakota Maine DistrictofColumbia Wisconsin Utah Connecticut NewYork Delaware WestVirginia Missouri Massachusetts Oregon RhodeIsland Nebraska NorthCarolina Oklahoma Alaska NorthDakota NewJersey Illinois Michigan Kentucky Wyoming Indiana Virginia Arkansas Pennsylvania Maryland NewMexico NewHampshire Colorado Iowa Idaho Tennessee Ohio Georgia Kansas SouthCarolina Minnesota Montana Texas Washington Hawaii Alabama California Louisiana Mississippi Vermont Arizona Florida Nevada -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank Changeinhospitalizations(%/day) Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Change in hospitalizations over past 14 days p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.59, p governor: 0.53. NB: association != causation. 2020-09-18 Summary: 35
  • 36.
    Change in NewCases per Day Direction Increasing > +2% Increasing between +0.5% and +2% No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%) Decreasing between -0.5% and -2% Decreasing > -2% NA Trends by county as of 2020-09-18 NA = Inadequate data 2020-09-18 Summary: 36