This document provides context and explanations for COVID-19 projections and analyses. It notes that the analysis is conducted independently and aims to be apolitical. Data sources and modeling approaches are described, including using a Gompertz function to model case growth and log-linear regression for deaths. Locations are selected based on factors like family/friends or economic importance. Updates are typically daily, though clinical duties may cause delays.

1. Caveats and Comments
1
Overview:
This is my analysis, not Stanford’s. My goal is to understand the trajectory of COVID. It is not confidential and can be freely shared. The R program code is
available at https://github.com/StevenLShafer/COVID19/. The daily analysis are available at https://1drv.ms/u/s!AuOyHP_aTIy7rowrt2AjGpWm_frnEQ?e=KBcNbh.
You are welcome to use the R code on GitHub for any purpose.
I am attempting to keep the analysis and commentary apolitical. I am now including partisan lean as a metric to help understand the epidemic. I occasionally point
out misrepresentations by government officials. I occasionally point out where government recommendations have placed Americans at increasing risk.
I try to provide a daily update in the morning, except Sundays. My analysis my be delayed by my clinical responsibilities as a Stanford anesthesiologist.
There is a lot of information on the figures. If something isn’t clear, please see the explanation on slide 2.
Data sources:
• USA Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv
• USA Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv
• USA Testing and Hospitalization Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/COVID19Tracking/covid-tracking-data/master/data/states_daily_4pm_et.csv
• Global Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_global.csv
• Global Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv
• Global Testing Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/owid/covid-19-data/master/public/data/owid-covid-data.csv
• Mobility Data: https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/Global_Mobility_Report.csv
• Partisan Lean: MIT Election Data and Science Lab: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ/HEIJCQ
• Ensemble Model: https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/raw/master/data-processed/COVIDhub-ensemble/2020-xx-xx-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv
Models:
1. Future projections of case numbers are based on the Gompertz function (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gompertz_function): log 𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 =
𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 + 𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 − 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 1 − 𝑒−𝑘 𝑡 . This is a naïve asymptotic model. k is the rate constant, such that log(2) / k = time to 50%
rise. t is the number of days. Wikipedia The Gompertz function is estimated from the last 3 weeks of data for cumulative cases (red dots in the figures).
Deaths are predicted from a log linear regression of deaths over the past 21 days. For the US, and individual states, I am also including the 98% prediction
interval from the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/).
2. The rate of change in daily cases and deaths is the slope of delta cases / day over the last 14 days, divided by the average number of cases.
Locations
The locations for the modeling are where Pamela and I have family and friends, locations of interest to friends and colleagues, or countries in the news (e.g.,
China, South Korea, Sweden, Brazil) or with significant economic impact on the United States (e.g., Japan, Canada, Mexico). Locations are easy to add.
Stay safe, well, resilient, and kind.
Steve Shafer
steven.shafer@Stanford.edu

2. 2,586,092
152,804
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-05-27
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,662,302 (32,123) -- Deaths: 98,220 (829) -- Case Mortality: 5.9% -- Daily Change in Cases: -0.5%
Explanation of the Figures
2
Brown dots:
cumulative tests
Red dots: cumulative cases
used to estimate Gompertz
function, presently set to last
3 weeks
Red line: predicted cumulative
cases based on the Gompertz
function estimated from the red
dots
Red number: total cases
on June 30th, based on
the Gompertz function
estimated from the red
dots
Black number: total
Deaths on July 31th,
based on log-linear
regression of the past
21 days
Black line: predicted
cumulative deaths, based
on a log linear regression
of deaths over past 21
days.
Axis for deaths / day, usually
1/10th of the axis for cases /
day on the left side of the
figure.
Green line: linear regression
over 8 days, used to calculate
percent increase / decrease
(see below)
Daily change in cases,
calculated as the slope of the
green line (above left) /
number of new cases
yesterday.
Case mortality:
cumulative deaths
/ cumulative cases.
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
not used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Deaths / day,
axis is on the left
Blue line: today
Blue dots: cumulative cases not
used to estimate Gompertz
function
Cumulative cases
(yesterday’s cases)
and cumulative deaths
(yesterday’s deaths)
Axis for cases / day.
Axis for deaths / day
appears to the right.
Geographic
location
Date of analysis,
also shown as
blue vertical line
below
Purple wedge: 98% ensemble
prediction interval from COVID-19
Forecast Hub (USA and US
States only)

3. Worldwide
42,659,209
1,219,488
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Cumulative
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Worldwide projection as of 2020-09-27
10
1,000
100,000
CasesandDeaths/Day
Cases: 32,839,281 (277,937) -- Deaths: 994,127 (5,279) -- Case Mortality: 3.0% -- Daily Change: +0.7% Cases, +0.7% Deaths
2020-09-27 Summary: 3

4. USA
8,329,658
236,231
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Cumulative
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-09-27
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
LaborDay
10
1,000
100,000
CasesandDeaths/Day
Cases: 7,078,089 (45,377) -- Deaths: 204,490 (740) -- Case Mortality: 2.9% -- Daily Change: +1.8% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
2020-09-27 Summary: 4

5. Western Europe
3,634,458
166,260
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Cumulative
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Netherlands, Luxembourg, and the UK (Population = 344MM)
Western Europe projection as of 2020-09-27
10
1,000
100,000
CasesandDeaths/Day
Cases: 2,495,937 (13,193) -- Deaths: 159,038 (113) -- Case Mortality: 6.4% -- Daily Change: +2.0% Cases, +3.4% Deaths
2020-09-27 Summary: 5

6. Comparison of COVID-19 Cases & Deaths
between US & Europe
Cases
Deaths
45,377
13,193
740
113
3
10
30
100
300
1,000
3,000
10,000
30,000
100,000
Date
DailyCasesandDeaths
Location
USA (318MM)
Western Europe (344MM)
Log plot of 7 day average
Comparison of COVID-19 Cases & Deaths between US & Europe
The numbers on the right are yesterday's figures, and will differ a bit from the plotted rolling mean
2020-09-27 Summary: 6

7. Non-authoritarian Asian ensemble
129,180
2,589
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Cumulative
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam (Population = 328 MM)
Non-authoritarian Asian ensemble projection as of 2020-09-27
1.0
10.0
100.0
1,000.0
CasesandDeaths/Day
Cases: 109,906 (745) -- Deaths: 2,042 (5) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: -0.5% Cases, -3.4% Deaths
2020-09-27 Summary: 7

8. Worldwide cases
USA
India
Brazil
Russia
Colombia
Peru
Mexico
Spain
Argentina
SouthAfrica
France
Chile
Iran
UnitedKingdom
Bangladesh
Iraq
SaudiArabia
Turkey
Pakistan
Italy
Philippines
Germany
Indonesia
Israel
Ukraine
Canada
Ecuador
Bolivia
Romania
Morocco
Netherlands
Belgium
DominicanRepublic
Kazakhstan
Egypt
Sweden
China
Guatemala
Poland
Japan
Belarus
Honduras
Portugal
Ethiopia
Venezuela
Nepal
CzechRepublic
Nigeria
Uzbekistan
Switzerland
Algeria
Ghana
Kyrgyzstan
Austria
Azerbaijan
Afghanistan
Paraguay
Kenya
Serbia
Libya
ElSalvador
Australia
Denmark
SouthKorea
Hungary
USA
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Totalcasestodate
Worldwide cases
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-09-27 Summary: 8

9. Worldwide cases
Israel
Chile
Peru
Brazil
USA
Spain
Colombia
Argentina
Bolivia
SouthAfrica
SaudiArabia
DominicanRepublic
Iraq
Belgium
Sweden
Honduras
Ecuador
France
Kyrgyzstan
Russia
Belarus
UnitedKingdom
Kazakhstan
Switzerland
Portugal
Guatemala
Iran
Netherlands
Mexico
CzechRepublic
Romania
Paraguay
Italy
Austria
India
Libya
Azerbaijan
Denmark
Canada
Serbia
Ukraine
Turkey
ElSalvador
Germany
Morocco
Philippines
Bulgaria
Venezuela
Nepal
Hungary
Bangladesh
Poland
Uzbekistan
Ghana
Finland
Pakistan
Greece
Slovakia
Algeria
Afghanistan
Tunisia
Tajikistan
Australia
Jordan
Egypt
USA
None
1 in 200
1 in 100
1 in 67
1 in 50
1 in 40
1 in 33
1 in 29
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Totalcasestodate
Worldwide cases
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-09-27 Summary: 9

10. Average new cases over past 7 days
Israel
Argentina
Spain
CzechRepublic
Peru
France
Belgium
Colombia
Netherlands
Brazil
USA
Iraq
Libya
Paraguay
Chile
Denmark
UnitedKingdom
Hungary
Austria
Ecuador
Ukraine
India
Jordan
Tunisia
Portugal
Morocco
Honduras
Romania
DominicanRepublic
Slovakia
Iran
Guatemala
Russia
Bolivia
Nepal
Switzerland
Mexico
Sweden
Canada
Venezuela
SouthAfrica
Greece
Italy
Poland
Philippines
Belarus
Bulgaria
Turkey
Germany
Uzbekistan
Kyrgyzstan
ElSalvador
Indonesia
SaudiArabia
Finland
Azerbaijan
Myanmar
Bangladesh
Serbia
Mozambique
Angola
Ethiopia
Uganda
Zambia
Tajikistan
USA
None
1 in 5,000
1 in 2,500
1 in 1,667
1 in 1,250
1 in 1,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Averagecases/day
Average new cases over past 7 days
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-09-27 Summary: 10

11. Worldwide deaths
USA
Brazil
India
Mexico
UnitedKingdom
Italy
Peru
France
Spain
Iran
Colombia
Russia
SouthAfrica
Argentina
Chile
Ecuador
Indonesia
Belgium
Germany
Canada
Iraq
Turkey
Bolivia
Pakistan
Netherlands
Sweden
Egypt
Philippines
Bangladesh
China
Romania
SaudiArabia
Ukraine
Guatemala
Poland
Honduras
DominicanRepublic
Switzerland
Morocco
Portugal
Algeria
Kazakhstan
Japan
Afghanistan
Israel
Ethiopia
Nigeria
Kyrgyzstan
Australia
Sudan
ElSalvador
Belarus
Bulgaria
Austria
Paraguay
Serbia
Hungary
Kenya
Denmark
Venezuela
CzechRepublic
Yemen
Azerbaijan
Libya
Nepal
USA
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Totaldeathstodate
Worldwide deaths
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-09-27 Summary: 11

12. Worldwide deaths
Peru
Belgium
Bolivia
Ecuador
Spain
Chile
Brazil
UnitedKingdom
Mexico
Sweden
USA
Italy
Colombia
France
Iran
Argentina
Netherlands
SouthAfrica
Honduras
Iraq
Canada
Switzerland
Guatemala
DominicanRepublic
Romania
Israel
Kyrgyzstan
Portugal
SaudiArabia
Russia
Denmark
ElSalvador
Germany
Paraguay
Kazakhstan
Bulgaria
Turkey
Serbia
Austria
Ukraine
Belarus
India
Libya
Hungary
Azerbaijan
Egypt
Finland
Poland
Morocco
CzechRepublic
Philippines
Afghanistan
Algeria
Indonesia
Australia
Pakistan
Greece
Bangladesh
Sudan
Zambia
Nicaragua
Haiti
Yemen
Venezuela
Senegal
USA
None
1 in 5,000
1 in 2,500
1 in 1,667
1 in 1,250
1 in 1,000
1 in 833
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Totaldeathstodate
Worldwide deaths
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-09-27 Summary: 12

13. Average daily deaths over past 7 days
Argentina
Colombia
Israel
Mexico
Peru
Bolivia
Brazil
Paraguay
Chile
Iran
USA
Honduras
Spain
Iraq
Ecuador
Romania
Libya
SouthAfrica
Guatemala
Ukraine
CzechRepublic
Morocco
SaudiArabia
India
Russia
Turkey
France
Hungary
DominicanRepublic
Netherlands
Tunisia
Bulgaria
Portugal
Philippines
Greece
Belarus
Indonesia
Poland
UnitedKingdom
Belgium
ElSalvador
Austria
Nepal
Venezuela
Italy
Myanmar
Switzerland
Denmark
Jordan
Angola
Kazakhstan
Canada
Sweden
Egypt
Bangladesh
Azerbaijan
Algeria
Australia
Uzbekistan
Kenya
Ethiopia
Syria
Serbia
Slovakia
Germany
USA
None
1 in 500,000
1 in 250,000
1 in 166,667
1 in 125,000
1 in 100,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Averagedeaths/day
Average daily deaths over past 7 days
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-09-27 Summary: 13

14. CV for Cases and Deaths
KGZ
BEL
ITA
GBRSWE
CMR
DEUCANSOM
NLDSDN
FINTHA PAK BFA
SLE CHEMWI MLI FRADNKAFG CIVYEM
SRB MYS
SSDCOD
PRT AUTVNM ESPSEN TCDNICEGY NGA TJKAZEGHA GINKAZ USA PERCHLHTI
LKA DZASLVZAF ZWEBRAGTM POLRUS IRNMEX HUNKEN ZMBBLRSAU MDG JPNBGD HND
DOM SVKTURKOR CUBBGR IRQCOL ROU
AUS
IDN CZEGRCETH INDUZB ISRUKRPHL AGOVENPNG TGOBOL SYR ARG MARRWA
ECU NPL LBYUGAPRYMOZ TUNJOR
MMR
0.001
0.010
0.100
1.000
0.010.01 0.10 1.00
Cases CV
DeathsCV
Coefficient of variation for cases and deaths as of 2020-09-27
CV calculated over last 28 days
2020-09-27 Summary: 14

15. Mortality Trends
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
USCaseRateMortality
Mortality Type:
13 day rolling median
Cumulative
Daily Raw
Daily vs. Cumulative US Case Rate Mortality
Last week excluded because deaths are often backdated
2020-09-27 Summary: 15

16. Change in New Cases per Day
New cases are:
Increasing > +3%
Increasing between +1% and +3%
No Change (-1% to +1%)
Decreasing between -1% and -3%
Decreasing > -3%
New cases by state as of 2020-09-27
2020-09-27 Summary: 16

17. Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
PercentofPeak
Daily Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
2020-09-27 Summary: 17

18. Change in New Deaths per Day
New deaths are:
Increasing > +0.5%
Increasing between +0.1% and +0.5%
No Change (-0.1% to +0.1%)
Decreasing between -0.1% and -0.5%
Decreasing > -0.5%
New deaths by state as of 2020-09-27
2020-09-27 Summary: 18

19. Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
PercentofPeak
Daily Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
2020-09-27 Summary: 19

20. Change in cases vs. change in deaths over
last 14 days
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DC
FL
GA
HI
ID
ILIN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
TN TX
UTVT
VA
WA
WI
WY-6
-3
0
3
6
-6 -3 0 3 6
Change in cases (%/day)
Changeindeaths(%/day)
Change in cases vs. change in deaths over last 14 days as of 2020-09-27
Size is proportional total cases per capita
2020-09-27 Summary: 20

21. Total US COVID-19 Cases
California
Texas
Florida
NewYork
Georgia
Illinois
Arizona
NorthCarolina
NewJersey
Tennessee
Louisiana
Pennsylvania
Alabama
Ohio
SouthCarolina
Virginia
Michigan
Massachusetts
Missouri
Maryland
Indiana
Wisconsin
Mississippi
Minnesota
Iowa
Washington
Oklahoma
Arkansas
Nevada
Utah
Colorado
Kentucky
Kansas
Connecticut
Nebraska
Idaho
Oregon
NewMexico
RhodeIsland
SouthDakota
NorthDakota
Delaware
DistrictofColumbia
WestVirginia
Hawaii
Montana
NewHampshire
Alaska
Wyoming
Maine
Vermont
0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Totalcases
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Total US COVID-19 Cases
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.59, p governor: 0.9. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-27 Summary: 21

22. Total US COVID-19 Cases
Louisiana
Florida
Mississippi
Alabama
Arizona
Georgia
SouthCarolina
Tennessee
Iowa
Arkansas
NorthDakota
Texas
Nevada
SouthDakota
NewYork
RhodeIsland
NewJersey
Illinois
Idaho
Nebraska
Utah
DistrictofColumbia
Oklahoma
Delaware
California
Maryland
Missouri
NorthCarolina
Wisconsin
Kansas
Massachusetts
Indiana
Virginia
Minnesota
Connecticut
Kentucky
NewMexico
Michigan
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Washington
Montana
Alaska
Wyoming
Hawaii
WestVirginia
Oregon
NewHampshire
Maine
Vermont
None
1 in 100
1 in 50
1 in 33
1 in 25
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
TotalCases
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Total US COVID-19 Cases
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.14, p governor: 0.019. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-27 Summary: 22

23. Average US COVID-19 cases over the past
7 days
NorthDakota
SouthDakota
Wisconsin
Utah
Oklahoma
Iowa
Arkansas
Missouri
Montana
Idaho
Alabama
SouthCarolina
Texas
Nebraska
Kansas
Tennessee
NorthCarolina
Mississippi
Minnesota
Kentucky
Illinois
Wyoming
Nevada
Georgia
Indiana
Alaska
Florida
WestVirginia
Colorado
Delaware
Louisiana
Virginia
California
Michigan
RhodeIsland
Maryland
NewMexico
Ohio
Hawaii
Washington
Arizona
Oregon
DistrictofColumbia
Massachusetts
Pennsylvania
NewJersey
NewYork
Connecticut
NewHampshire
Maine
Vermont
None
1 in 10,000
1 in 5,000
1 in 3,333
1 in 2,500
1 in 2,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
NewCases/Day
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Average US COVID-19 cases over the past 7 days
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.0027, p governor: 0.0042. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-27 Summary: 23

24. Total US COVID-19 Deaths
NewYork
NewJersey
Texas
California
Florida
Massachusetts
Illinois
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Georgia
Arizona
Louisiana
Ohio
Connecticut
Maryland
Indiana
NorthCarolina
SouthCarolina
Virginia
Mississippi
Alabama
Tennessee
Washington
Minnesota
Missouri
Colorado
Nevada
Iowa
Arkansas
Wisconsin
Kentucky
RhodeIsland
Oklahoma
NewMexico
Kansas
Delaware
DistrictofColumbia
Oregon
Nebraska
Idaho
Utah
NewHampshire
WestVirginia
NorthDakota
SouthDakota
Montana
Maine
Hawaii
Vermont
Alaska
Wyoming
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
TotalDeaths
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Total US COVID-19 Deaths
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.072, p governor: 0.3. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-27 Summary: 24

25. Total US COVID-19 Deaths
NewJersey
NewYork
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Louisiana
RhodeIsland
Mississippi
DistrictofColumbia
Arizona
Michigan
Illinois
Florida
Georgia
Delaware
Maryland
SouthCarolina
Pennsylvania
Texas
Indiana
Nevada
Alabama
Arkansas
Iowa
NewMexico
Ohio
California
Virginia
Minnesota
Colorado
Tennessee
Missouri
NorthCarolina
NewHampshire
NorthDakota
Washington
Kentucky
Idaho
Oklahoma
SouthDakota
Nebraska
Wisconsin
Kansas
WestVirginia
Montana
Utah
Oregon
Maine
Vermont
Hawaii
Wyoming
Alaska
None
1 in 2,000
1 in 1,000
1 in 667
1 in 500
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
TotalDeaths
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Total US COVID-19 Deaths
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.035, p governor: 0.38. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-27 Summary: 25

26. Average US COVID-19 deaths over the past
7 days
NorthDakota
Mississippi
Missouri
Arkansas
Florida
Georgia
SouthCarolina
Texas
Tennessee
SouthDakota
Arizona
Montana
Virginia
NorthCarolina
Louisiana
WestVirginia
Nevada
RhodeIsland
Massachusetts
California
Oklahoma
Alabama
Iowa
Illinois
Kansas
Nebraska
NewMexico
Delaware
Pennsylvania
Idaho
Indiana
Kentucky
Ohio
Minnesota
Alaska
Maryland
Michigan
Washington
Hawaii
Wisconsin
DistrictofColumbia
Colorado
Oregon
NewJersey
Utah
Connecticut
NewYork
Maine
NewHampshire
Vermont
Wyoming
None
1 in 500,000
1 in 250,000
1 in 166,667
1 in 125,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Deaths/Day
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Average US COVID-19 deaths over the past 7 days
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.27, p governor: 0.014. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-27 Summary: 26

27. Daily testing trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Dailytestingfrommintomax
Daily testing trends from min to max
Line = Friedman's supersmoother
2020-09-27 Summary: 27

28. Change in daily tests over past 14 days
Utah
SouthCarolina
Wisconsin
Colorado
Minnesota
NewMexico
Idaho
NorthCarolina
Florida
SouthDakota
Oklahoma
Ohio
Kentucky
WestVirginia
Illinois
Wyoming
Michigan
Arizona
Nevada
Montana
Missouri
DistrictofColumbia
NorthDakota
Virginia
Arkansas
Connecticut
Maine
NewYork
Texas
Washington
NewHampshire
Tennessee
Iowa
Kansas
Mississippi
Nebraska
NewJersey
Massachusetts
Louisiana
Indiana
California
Vermont
Pennsylvania
Oregon
Delaware
RhodeIsland
Alaska
Maryland
Georgia
Alabama
Hawaii
-6.0
-3.0
0.0
3.0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Changeindailytests(%/day)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Change in daily tests over past 14 days
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.26, p governor: 0.76. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-27 Summary: 28

29. Percent Tested
Alaska
NewYork
DistrictofColumbia
Louisiana
Illinois
NewMexico
Connecticut
Tennessee
NewJersey
California
Michigan
Massachusetts
RhodeIsland
Arkansas
NorthDakota
Montana
WestVirginia
Maine
Oklahoma
Delaware
Kentucky
NorthCarolina
Georgia
Maryland
Wisconsin
Ohio
Vermont
Utah
Mississippi
Florida
Minnesota
SouthCarolina
Iowa
Washington
Virginia
Alabama
Nebraska
Nevada
SouthDakota
Missouri
Texas
Hawaii
Indiana
Arizona
NewHampshire
Kansas
Wyoming
Idaho
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Colorado
0
20
40
60
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
PercentTested
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Percent Tested
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.032, p governor: 0.13. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-27 Summary: 29

30. Percent of Positive COVID Tests
Arizona
Alabama
Florida
Mississippi
Idaho
Texas
SouthCarolina
Nevada
SouthDakota
Kansas
Iowa
Georgia
Nebraska
Missouri
Utah
Indiana
NorthDakota
Arkansas
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Maryland
RhodeIsland
Louisiana
Virginia
Oklahoma
Delaware
NorthCarolina
Minnesota
Tennessee
Massachusetts
NewJersey
California
Wyoming
Illinois
Kentucky
Ohio
Oregon
Washington
NewYork
Hawaii
DistrictofColumbia
Michigan
Connecticut
Montana
NewMexico
NewHampshire
WestVirginia
Alaska
Maine
Vermont
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
PercentofPositiveTests
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Percent of Positive COVID Tests
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.0064, p governor: 0.0023. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-27 Summary: 30

31. Positive fraction trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Fractionpositivefrommintomax
Positive fraction trends from min to max
2020-09-27 Summary: 31

32. Change in positive tests over past 14 days
NorthDakota
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Montana
SouthDakota
Utah
WestVirginia
Iowa
Missouri
Kansas
Alaska
Idaho
Oklahoma
Nebraska
Minnesota
Oregon
Arkansas
Indiana
Alabama
Nevada
Colorado
Delaware
Florida
Texas
Hawaii
NorthCarolina
Pennsylvania
Washington
RhodeIsland
Tennessee
NewMexico
Maryland
Vermont
Georgia
Michigan
Virginia
Illinois
Louisiana
NewHampshire
California
SouthCarolina
Arizona
Massachusetts
Ohio
NewJersey
Connecticut
NewYork
DistrictofColumbia
Mississippi
Kentucky
Maine
-1.0
0.0
1.0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Changeinpositivetests(%/day)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Change in positive tests over past 14 days
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.017, p governor: 0.027. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-27 Summary: 32

33. Change in tests vs. change in positive tests
over last 14 days
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
DC
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KYME
MN
MS
MT
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
RI
SC
SD
TN
UT
VT
WV
WI
WY
-1
0
1
-5.0 -2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0
Change in tests (%/day)
Changeinpositivetests(%/day)
Change in tests vs. change in positive tests over last 14 days as of 2020-09-27
Size is proportional daily deaths per capita over the past 7 days
2020-09-27 Summary: 33

34. Current hospitalizations as a percent of peak
since FebruaryMissouri
Nebraska
NorthDakota
SouthDakota
WestVirginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Alaska
Oklahoma
Kansas
Arkansas
Montana
Iowa
Utah
Kentucky
NorthCarolina
Oregon
Idaho
Virginia
Georgia
Tennessee
Hawaii
Indiana
Minnesota
Ohio
Mississippi
Alabama
SouthCarolina
Washington
Nevada
California
NewMexico
Illinois
Texas
RhodeIsland
Louisiana
Colorado
Maine
Florida
DistrictofColumbia
Maryland
Delaware
Pennsylvania
Arizona
Michigan
NewHampshire
Massachusetts
NewJersey
Connecticut
Vermont
NewYork
0
30
60
90
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Hospitalizations(%ofpeak)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Current hospitalizations as a percent of peak since February
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.0027, p governor: 0.04. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-27 Summary: 34

35. Hospitalizations trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Hospitalizationsfrommintomax
Hospitalizations trends from min to max
2020-09-27 Summary: 35

36. Change in hospitalizations over past 14
days
NewHampshire
SouthDakota
Wisconsin
Wyoming
NorthDakota
Oregon
Minnesota
Connecticut
Kansas
Nebraska
Utah
Arkansas
Oklahoma
Maine
Massachusetts
RhodeIsland
WestVirginia
Alaska
NewYork
Missouri
DistrictofColumbia
Iowa
NewMexico
Colorado
Illinois
NorthCarolina
Washington
Mississippi
SouthCarolina
Indiana
NewJersey
Alabama
Kentucky
Idaho
Montana
Texas
Delaware
Maryland
Virginia
Arizona
Pennsylvania
Nevada
Ohio
Georgia
Tennessee
Michigan
California
Louisiana
Florida
Hawaii
Vermont
-8.0
-4.0
0.0
4.0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Changeinhospitalizations(%/day)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Change in hospitalizations over past 14 days
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.25, p governor: 0.42. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-27 Summary: 36

37. CV for Cases and Deaths
IN IL
CA MAIA NCMD FL COTX WISC MS NMLA NV MNOKKY GA WA
TN AZ
WVPA MI OR MTDC
HI
NJRIAL UTID
KS
AR CTNYOH DE SDMO NEVA
NDME
AKNH
WY
0.010.01
0.10
1.00
0.010.01 0.10 1.00
Cases CV
DeathsCV
Coefficient of variation for cases and deaths as of 2020-09-27
CV calculated over last 28 days
2020-09-27 Summary: 37

38. Change in New Cases per Day
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
NA
Trends by county as of 2020-09-27
NA = Inadequate data
2020-09-27 Summary: 38