COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 19, 2020

1. Caveats and Comments
1
Overview:
This is my analysis, not Stanford’s. My goal is to understand the trajectory of COVID. It is not confidential and can be freely shared. The R program code is
available at https://github.com/StevenLShafer/COVID19/. The daily analysis are available at https://1drv.ms/u/s!AuOyHP_aTIy7rowrt2AjGpWm_frnEQ?e=KBcNbh.
You are welcome to use the R code on GitHub for any purpose.
I am attempting to keep the analysis and commentary apolitical. I am now including partisan lean as a metric to help understand the epidemic. I occasionally point
out misrepresentations by government officials. I occasionally point out where government recommendations have placed Americans at increasing risk.
I try to provide a daily update in the morning, except Sundays. My analysis my be delayed by my clinical responsibilities as a Stanford anesthesiologist.
There is a lot of information on the figures. If something isn’t clear, please see the explanation on slide 2.
Data sources:
• USA Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv
• USA Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv
• USA Testing and Hospitalization Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/COVID19Tracking/covid-tracking-data/master/data/states_daily_4pm_et.csv
• Global Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_global.csv
• Global Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv
• Global Testing Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/owid/covid-19-data/master/public/data/owid-covid-data.csv
• Mobility Data: https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/Global_Mobility_Report.csv
• Partisan Lean: MIT Election Data and Science Lab: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ/HEIJCQ
• Ensemble Model: https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/raw/master/data-processed/COVIDhub-ensemble/2020-xx-xx-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv
Models:
1. Future projections of case numbers are based on the Gompertz function (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gompertz_function): log 𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 =
𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 + 𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 − 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 1 − 𝑒−𝑘 𝑡 . This is a naïve asymptotic model. k is the rate constant, such that log(2) / k = time to 50%
rise. t is the number of days. Wikipedia The Gompertz function is estimated from the last 3 weeks of data for cumulative cases (red dots in the figures).
Deaths are predicted from a log linear regression of deaths over the past 21 days. For the US, and individual states, I am also including the 98% prediction
interval from the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/).
2. The rate of change in daily cases and deaths is the slope of delta cases / day over the last 14 days, divided by the average number of cases.
Locations
The locations for the modeling are where Pamela and I have family and friends, locations of interest to friends and colleagues, or countries in the news (e.g.,
China, South Korea, Sweden, Brazil) or with significant economic impact on the United States (e.g., Japan, Canada, Mexico). Locations are easy to add.
Stay safe, well, resilient, and kind.
Steve Shafer
steven.shafer@Stanford.edu

2. 2,586,092
152,804
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-05-27
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,662,302 (32,123) -- Deaths: 98,220 (829) -- Case Mortality: 5.9% -- Daily Change in Cases: -0.5%
Explanation of the Figures
2
Brown dots:
cumulative tests
Red dots: cumulative cases
used to estimate Gompertz
function, presently set to last
3 weeks
Red line: predicted cumulative
cases based on the Gompertz
function estimated from the red
dots
Red number: total cases
on June 30th, based on
the Gompertz function
estimated from the red
dots
Black number: total
Deaths on July 31th,
based on log-linear
regression of the past
21 days
Black line: predicted
cumulative deaths, based
on a log linear regression
of deaths over past 21
days.
Axis for deaths / day, usually
1/10th of the axis for cases /
day on the left side of the
figure.
Green line: linear regression
over 8 days, used to calculate
percent increase / decrease
(see below)
Daily change in cases,
calculated as the slope of the
green line (above left) /
number of new cases
yesterday.
Case mortality:
cumulative deaths
/ cumulative cases.
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
not used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Deaths / day,
axis is on the left
Blue line: today
Blue dots: cumulative cases not
used to estimate Gompertz
function
Cumulative cases
(yesterday’s cases)
and cumulative deaths
(yesterday’s deaths)
Axis for cases / day.
Axis for deaths / day
appears to the right.
Geographic
location
Date of analysis,
also shown as
blue vertical line
below
Purple wedge: 98% ensemble
prediction interval from COVID-19
Forecast Hub (USA and US
States only)

3. Worldwide
41,674,291
1,251,173
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Cumulative
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Worldwide projection as of 2020-09-19
10
1,000
100,000
CasesandDeaths/Day
Cases: 30,405,466 (230,884) -- Deaths: 950,504 (4,459) -- Case Mortality: 3.1% -- Daily Change: +0.5% Cases, -0.9% Deaths
2020-09-19 Summary: 3

4. USA
8,099,415
237,948
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Cumulative
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-09-19
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
LaborDay
10
1,000
100,000
CasesandDeaths/Day
Cases: 6,723,933 (49,522) -- Deaths: 198,570 (937) -- Case Mortality: 3.0% -- Daily Change: +1.8% Cases, +1.6% Deaths
2020-09-19 Summary: 4

5. Non-authoritarian Asian ensemble
132,509
2,793
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Cumulative
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam (Population = 328 MM)
Non-authoritarian Asian ensemble projection as of 2020-09-19
1.0
10.0
100.0
1,000.0
CasesandDeaths/Day
Cases: 105,519 (685) -- Deaths: 1,971 (11) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: -0.4% Cases, -0.4% Deaths
2020-09-19 Summary: 5

6. Western Europe
3,314,294
162,633
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Cumulative
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Netherlands, Luxembourg, and the UK (Population = 344MM)
Western Europe projection as of 2020-09-19
10
1,000
100,000
CasesandDeaths/Day
Cases: 2,236,374 (39,321) -- Deaths: 157,225 (307) -- Case Mortality: 7.0% -- Daily Change: +2.9% Cases, +7.3% Deaths
2020-09-19 Summary: 6

7. Comparison of COVID-19 Cases & Deaths
between US & Europe
Cases
Deaths
48,293
31,084
904
240
3
10
30
100
300
1,000
3,000
10,000
30,000
100,000
Date
DailyCasesandDeaths
Location
USA (318MM)
Western Europe (344MM)
Log plot of 7 day average
Comparison of COVID-19 Cases & Deaths between US & Europe
The numbers on the right are yesterday's figures, and will differ a bit from the plotted rolling mean
2020-09-19 Summary: 7

8. Worldwide cases
USA
India
Brazil
Russia
Colombia
Peru
Mexico
SouthAfrica
Spain
Argentina
France
Chile
Iran
UnitedKingdom
Bangladesh
SaudiArabia
Iraq
Pakistan
Turkey
Italy
Philippines
Germany
Indonesia
Israel
Ukraine
Canada
Bolivia
Ecuador
Romania
Kazakhstan
DominicanRepublic
Egypt
Belgium
Morocco
Netherlands
China
Sweden
Guatemala
Japan
Poland
Belarus
Honduras
Ethiopia
Portugal
Venezuela
Nepal
Nigeria
Uzbekistan
Algeria
Switzerland
CzechRepublic
Ghana
Kyrgyzstan
Azerbaijan
Afghanistan
Kenya
Austria
Serbia
Paraguay
ElSalvador
Australia
Libya
SouthKorea
Denmark
Cameroon
USA
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Totalcasestodate
Worldwide cases
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-09-19 Summary: 8

9. Worldwide cases
Chile
Peru
Israel
Brazil
USA
Colombia
Spain
Argentina
SouthAfrica
Bolivia
SaudiArabia
DominicanRepublic
Iraq
Sweden
Belgium
Honduras
Ecuador
Kyrgyzstan
Belarus
Russia
France
Kazakhstan
Switzerland
UnitedKingdom
Guatemala
Portugal
Iran
Mexico
Netherlands
Italy
Romania
Azerbaijan
Paraguay
CzechRepublic
India
Austria
Serbia
Canada
Libya
Denmark
Turkey
ElSalvador
Ukraine
Germany
Philippines
Morocco
Bulgaria
Venezuela
Bangladesh
Nepal
Poland
Ghana
Uzbekistan
Pakistan
Finland
Hungary
Algeria
Greece
Afghanistan
Australia
Tajikistan
Egypt
Zambia
Slovakia
Cameroon
USA
None
1 in 200
1 in 100
1 in 67
1 in 50
1 in 40
1 in 33
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Totalcasestodate
Worldwide cases
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-09-19 Summary: 9

10. Average new cases over past 7 days
Israel
Argentina
Spain
Peru
CzechRepublic
Brazil
Colombia
France
Iraq
USA
Paraguay
Libya
Chile
Belgium
Ecuador
Netherlands
Austria
Honduras
Bolivia
Hungary
India
Ukraine
Denmark
DominicanRepublic
Morocco
Romania
Portugal
Switzerland
UnitedKingdom
Nepal
Mexico
Russia
Philippines
Iran
Guatemala
Venezuela
SouthAfrica
Tunisia
Jordan
Sweden
Slovakia
Greece
Canada
Italy
SaudiArabia
Turkey
Uzbekistan
Belarus
Germany
Bulgaria
Poland
Azerbaijan
Indonesia
Kyrgyzstan
ElSalvador
Serbia
Bangladesh
Finland
Zambia
Mozambique
Ethiopia
Algeria
Myanmar
Angola
Tajikistan
USA
None
1 in 10,000
1 in 5,000
1 in 3,333
1 in 2,500
1 in 2,000
1 in 1,667
1 in 1,429
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Averagecases/day
Average new cases over past 7 days
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-09-19 Summary: 10

11. Worldwide deaths
USA
Brazil
India
Mexico
UnitedKingdom
Italy
France
Peru
Spain
Iran
Colombia
Russia
SouthAfrica
Argentina
Chile
Ecuador
Belgium
Germany
Indonesia
Canada
Iraq
Bolivia
Turkey
Pakistan
Netherlands
Sweden
Egypt
Bangladesh
Philippines
China
SaudiArabia
Romania
Ukraine
Guatemala
Poland
Honduras
Switzerland
DominicanRepublic
Portugal
Morocco
Kazakhstan
Algeria
Japan
Afghanistan
Israel
Nigeria
Ethiopia
Kyrgyzstan
Australia
Sudan
ElSalvador
Belarus
Austria
Bulgaria
Serbia
Hungary
Kenya
Denmark
Paraguay
Yemen
Azerbaijan
Venezuela
CzechRepublic
Uzbekistan
Libya
USA
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Totaldeathstodate
Worldwide deaths
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-09-19 Summary: 11

12. Worldwide deaths
Peru
Belgium
Bolivia
Ecuador
Spain
Chile
UnitedKingdom
Brazil
Mexico
Sweden
USA
Italy
Colombia
France
Netherlands
Iran
SouthAfrica
Argentina
Canada
Honduras
Iraq
Switzerland
Guatemala
DominicanRepublic
Romania
Kyrgyzstan
Portugal
Israel
SaudiArabia
Russia
Germany
Denmark
ElSalvador
Kazakhstan
Bulgaria
Serbia
Turkey
Austria
Paraguay
Belarus
Ukraine
India
Azerbaijan
Egypt
Hungary
Libya
Finland
Poland
Afghanistan
Morocco
Philippines
Algeria
CzechRepublic
Australia
Indonesia
Pakistan
Sudan
Bangladesh
Greece
Zambia
Nicaragua
Yemen
Haiti
Cameroon
Senegal
USA
None
1 in 5,000
1 in 2,500
1 in 1,667
1 in 1,250
1 in 1,000
1 in 833
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Totaldeathstodate
Worldwide deaths
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-09-19 Summary: 12

13. Average daily deaths over past 7 days
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Peru
Colombia
Mexico
Chile
USA
Ecuador
Spain
Iraq
Paraguay
Iran
Israel
Romania
Libya
Honduras
SouthAfrica
Guatemala
DominicanRepublic
Ukraine
SaudiArabia
Philippines
Morocco
India
France
Russia
Bulgaria
Turkey
CzechRepublic
Belarus
ElSalvador
Hungary
Portugal
Indonesia
Switzerland
Tunisia
Poland
Greece
Venezuela
Nepal
Zambia
Sweden
Kazakhstan
Australia
UnitedKingdom
Algeria
Azerbaijan
Netherlands
Belgium
Austria
Uzbekistan
Egypt
Bangladesh
Jordan
Italy
Serbia
Angola
Canada
Myanmar
Ethiopia
Denmark
Syria
Kenya
Togo
USA
None
1 in 1,000,000
1 in 500,000
1 in 333,333
1 in 250,000
1 in 200,000
1 in 166,667
1 in 142,857
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Averagedeaths/day
Average daily deaths over past 7 days
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-09-19 Summary: 13

14. Mortality Trends
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
USCaseRateMortality
Mortality Type:
13 day rolling median
Cumulative
Daily Raw
Daily vs. Cumulative US Case Rate Mortality
Last week excluded because deaths are often backdated
2020-09-19 Summary: 14

15. Change in New Cases per Day
New cases are:
Increasing > +3%
Increasing between +1% and +3%
No Change (-1% to +1%)
Decreasing between -1% and -3%
Decreasing > -3%
New cases by state as of 2020-09-19
2020-09-19 Summary: 15

16. Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
PercentofPeak
Daily Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
2020-09-19 Summary: 16

17. Change in New Deaths per Day
New deaths are:
Increasing > +0.5%
Increasing between +0.1% and +0.5%
No Change (-0.1% to +0.1%)
Decreasing between -0.1% and -0.5%
Decreasing > -0.5%
New deaths by state as of 2020-09-19
2020-09-19 Summary: 17

18. Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
PercentofPeak
Daily Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
2020-09-19 Summary: 18

19. Change in cases vs. change in deaths over
last 14 days
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
DC
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL IN
IA
KS
KY
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NH
NJ
NY
NC
OH
OK
OR
PA
SC
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WY
-6
-3
0
3
6
-6 -3 0 3 6
Change in cases (%/day)
Changeindeaths(%/day)
Change in cases vs. change in deaths over last 14 days as of 2020-09-19
Size is proportional total cases per capita
2020-09-19 Summary: 19

20. Total US COVID-19 Cases
California
Texas
Florida
NewYork
Georgia
Illinois
Arizona
NewJersey
NorthCarolina
Tennessee
Louisiana
Pennsylvania
Alabama
Ohio
Virginia
SouthCarolina
Massachusetts
Michigan
Maryland
Missouri
Indiana
Wisconsin
Mississippi
Minnesota
Washington
Iowa
Nevada
Oklahoma
Arkansas
Colorado
Utah
Kentucky
Connecticut
Kansas
Nebraska
Idaho
Oregon
NewMexico
RhodeIsland
Delaware
SouthDakota
NorthDakota
DistrictofColumbia
WestVirginia
Hawaii
Montana
NewHampshire
Alaska
Maine
Wyoming
Vermont
0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Totalcases
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Total US COVID-19 Cases
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.48, p governor: 0.8. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-19 Summary: 20

21. Total US COVID-19 Cases
Louisiana
Florida
Mississippi
Arizona
Alabama
Georgia
SouthCarolina
Tennessee
Iowa
Arkansas
Nevada
Texas
NewYork
NorthDakota
NewJersey
RhodeIsland
Illinois
DistrictofColumbia
Nebraska
Idaho
SouthDakota
Delaware
California
Maryland
Utah
Oklahoma
Massachusetts
NorthCarolina
Missouri
Kansas
Wisconsin
Indiana
Virginia
Connecticut
Minnesota
Kentucky
NewMexico
Michigan
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Washington
Montana
Alaska
Wyoming
Hawaii
WestVirginia
Oregon
NewHampshire
Maine
Vermont
None
1 in 100
1 in 50
1 in 33
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
TotalCases
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Total US COVID-19 Cases
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.28, p governor: 0.037. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-19 Summary: 21

22. Average US COVID-19 cases over the past
7 days
NorthDakota
SouthDakota
Arkansas
Wisconsin
Missouri
Iowa
Oklahoma
SouthCarolina
Utah
Tennessee
Nebraska
Alabama
Kansas
Mississippi
Idaho
Georgia
Texas
Kentucky
Illinois
Montana
Indiana
Florida
Louisiana
Minnesota
NorthCarolina
Virginia
Wyoming
WestVirginia
Delaware
Alaska
Nevada
Maryland
Arizona
RhodeIsland
Ohio
California
Michigan
Hawaii
DistrictofColumbia
Colorado
Pennsylvania
NewMexico
Washington
Connecticut
Oregon
NewJersey
NewYork
NewHampshire
Maine
Vermont
Massachusetts
None
1 in 10,000
1 in 5,000
1 in 3,333
1 in 2,500
1 in 2,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
NewCases/Day
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Average US COVID-19 cases over the past 7 days
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.00029, p governor: 0.00092. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-19 Summary: 22

23. Total US COVID-19 Deaths
NewYork
NewJersey
Texas
California
Florida
Massachusetts
Illinois
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Georgia
Arizona
Louisiana
Ohio
Connecticut
Maryland
Indiana
NorthCarolina
SouthCarolina
Virginia
Mississippi
Alabama
Tennessee
Washington
Colorado
Minnesota
Missouri
Nevada
Iowa
Wisconsin
Arkansas
Kentucky
RhodeIsland
Oklahoma
NewMexico
Delaware
DistrictofColumbia
Kansas
Oregon
Nebraska
Idaho
NewHampshire
Utah
WestVirginia
SouthDakota
NorthDakota
Montana
Maine
Hawaii
Vermont
Wyoming
Alaska
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
TotalDeaths
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Total US COVID-19 Deaths
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.066, p governor: 0.28. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-19 Summary: 23

24. Total US COVID-19 Deaths
NewJersey
NewYork
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Louisiana
RhodeIsland
Mississippi
DistrictofColumbia
Arizona
Michigan
Illinois
Maryland
Delaware
Pennsylvania
SouthCarolina
Florida
Georgia
Indiana
Texas
Alabama
Nevada
NewMexico
Iowa
Ohio
Arkansas
California
Minnesota
Colorado
Virginia
NewHampshire
Tennessee
NorthCarolina
Missouri
Washington
Kentucky
Idaho
NorthDakota
Oklahoma
Nebraska
SouthDakota
Wisconsin
Kansas
WestVirginia
Montana
Utah
Oregon
Maine
Vermont
Wyoming
Hawaii
Alaska
None
1 in 2,000
1 in 1,000
1 in 667
1 in 500
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
TotalDeaths
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Total US COVID-19 Deaths
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.026, p governor: 0.32. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-19 Summary: 24

25. Average US COVID-19 deaths over the past
7 days
Arkansas
Mississippi
Florida
SouthCarolina
Louisiana
Texas
NorthDakota
Georgia
Kansas
Nevada
Tennessee
Virginia
Alabama
Arizona
WestVirginia
Ohio
Montana
NorthCarolina
California
SouthDakota
RhodeIsland
Hawaii
Iowa
Oklahoma
Missouri
Massachusetts
Kentucky
Illinois
Wyoming
Indiana
NewMexico
Minnesota
Idaho
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Maryland
Delaware
Washington
Nebraska
Michigan
Oregon
NewJersey
Colorado
DistrictofColumbia
Alaska
Connecticut
NewYork
Maine
NewHampshire
Utah
Vermont
None
1 in 500,000
1 in 250,000
1 in 166,667
1 in 125,000
1 in 100,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Deaths/Day
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Average US COVID-19 deaths over the past 7 days
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.4, p governor: 0.11. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-19 Summary: 25

26. Daily testing trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Dailytestingfrommintomax
Daily testing trends from min to max
Line = Friedman's supersmoother
2020-09-19 Summary: 26

27. Change in daily tests over past 14 days
Arizona
Wisconsin
Tennessee
SouthDakota
NorthCarolina
WestVirginia
NewMexico
Hawaii
Montana
Ohio
Wyoming
Oklahoma
Kentucky
Missouri
Michigan
Illinois
Connecticut
SouthCarolina
Minnesota
Washington
Indiana
NorthDakota
Arkansas
Maine
Utah
Texas
Kansas
NewYork
Massachusetts
Florida
Nebraska
NewJersey
Colorado
Iowa
Virginia
NewHampshire
DistrictofColumbia
Pennsylvania
Maryland
California
Georgia
Oregon
Louisiana
Alaska
RhodeIsland
Idaho
Nevada
Delaware
Mississippi
Alabama
Vermont
-6.0
-3.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Changeindailytests(%/day)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Change in daily tests over past 14 days
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.46, p governor: 0.77. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-19 Summary: 27

28. Percent Tested
Alaska
NewYork
DistrictofColumbia
Louisiana
NewMexico
Connecticut
Illinois
Tennessee
NewJersey
California
Michigan
RhodeIsland
Massachusetts
NorthDakota
Arkansas
WestVirginia
Montana
Delaware
Maine
Oklahoma
NorthCarolina
Georgia
Maryland
Vermont
Wisconsin
Ohio
Kentucky
Florida
Utah
Minnesota
Iowa
Washington
SouthCarolina
Virginia
Nebraska
Alabama
Nevada
Mississippi
SouthDakota
Missouri
Indiana
Hawaii
Texas
Arizona
NewHampshire
Kansas
Idaho
Wyoming
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Colorado
0
20
40
60
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
PercentTested
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Percent Tested
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.033, p governor: 0.12. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-19 Summary: 28

29. Percent of Positive COVID Tests
Arizona
Mississippi
Alabama
Florida
Idaho
Texas
SouthCarolina
Nevada
Georgia
Kansas
Iowa
SouthDakota
Nebraska
Missouri
Indiana
Arkansas
Utah
Maryland
Pennsylvania
Colorado
NorthDakota
Virginia
Louisiana
RhodeIsland
Wisconsin
Delaware
Oklahoma
NorthCarolina
Tennessee
Minnesota
Massachusetts
NewJersey
California
Kentucky
Illinois
Ohio
Wyoming
Oregon
Washington
NewYork
DistrictofColumbia
Hawaii
Connecticut
Michigan
NewHampshire
Montana
NewMexico
WestVirginia
Alaska
Maine
Vermont
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
PercentofPositiveTests
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Percent of Positive COVID Tests
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.011, p governor: 0.0023. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-19 Summary: 29

30. Positive fraction trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Fractionpositivefrommintomax
Positive fraction trends from min to max
2020-09-19 Summary: 30

31. Change in positive tests over past 14 days
NorthDakota
Wisconsin
WestVirginia
SouthDakota
Alaska
Texas
Montana
Utah
Missouri
Kansas
Iowa
Oklahoma
Idaho
Minnesota
Alabama
Nebraska
Delaware
Oregon
Mississippi
Florida
Wyoming
Arkansas
Virginia
SouthCarolina
Pennsylvania
Nevada
Tennessee
Maryland
Georgia
Colorado
NewHampshire
NewMexico
Vermont
Indiana
Michigan
Hawaii
Washington
California
Illinois
RhodeIsland
Arizona
NorthCarolina
Louisiana
Ohio
Massachusetts
NewJersey
DistrictofColumbia
Kentucky
NewYork
Connecticut
Maine
-1.0
0.0
1.0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Changeinpositivetests(%/day)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Change in positive tests over past 14 days
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.0022, p governor: 0.00086. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-19 Summary: 31

32. Change in tests vs. change in positive tests
over last 14 days
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
DC
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
ME
MA
MN
MT
NE
NV NH
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
RI
SD
TN
TX
VT
VA
WV
WI
-1
0
1
-5.0 -2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0
Change in tests (%/day)
Changeinpositivetests(%/day)
Change in tests vs. change in positive tests over last 14 days as of 2020-09-19
Size is proportional daily deaths per capita over the past 7 days
2020-09-19 Summary: 32

33. Current hospitalizations as a percent of peak
since FebruaryMissouri
NorthDakota
SouthDakota
WestVirginia
Nebraska
Alaska
Wyoming
Oklahoma
Kentucky
NorthCarolina
Hawaii
Montana
Arkansas
Kansas
Utah
Iowa
Idaho
Virginia
Georgia
Tennessee
Ohio
Wisconsin
Oregon
Indiana
Mississippi
SouthCarolina
Alabama
Washington
Minnesota
California
Nevada
Louisiana
Illinois
NewMexico
Texas
RhodeIsland
Florida
Colorado
Maine
DistrictofColumbia
Delaware
Maryland
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Arizona
Vermont
Massachusetts
NewHampshire
NewJersey
Connecticut
NewYork
0
30
60
90
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Hospitalizations(%ofpeak)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Current hospitalizations as a percent of peak since February
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.0053, p governor: 0.035. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-19 Summary: 33

34. Hospitalizations trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Hospitalizationsfrommintomax
Hospitalizations trends from min to max
2020-09-19 Summary: 34

35. Change in hospitalizations over past 14
days
SouthDakota
Maine
Connecticut
Wisconsin
Utah
DistrictofColumbia
NewYork
RhodeIsland
WestVirginia
Missouri
Delaware
NorthDakota
Massachusetts
Nebraska
Oregon
NorthCarolina
Oklahoma
Illinois
NewJersey
Wyoming
Alaska
Michigan
Indiana
Pennsylvania
Kentucky
Vermont
Maryland
Virginia
Arkansas
NewMexico
Colorado
NewHampshire
Idaho
Iowa
Tennessee
Kansas
Ohio
SouthCarolina
Georgia
Minnesota
Texas
Washington
Alabama
California
Hawaii
Louisiana
Mississippi
Montana
Arizona
Florida
Nevada
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Changeinhospitalizations(%/day)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Change in hospitalizations over past 14 days
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.84, p governor: 0.74. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-19 Summary: 35

36. Change in New Cases per Day
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
NA
Trends by county as of 2020-09-19
NA = Inadequate data
2020-09-19 Summary: 36