COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 23, 2020

1. Caveats and Comments
1
Overview:
This is my analysis, not Stanford’s. My goal is to understand the trajectory of COVID. It is not confidential and can be freely shared. The R program code is
available at https://github.com/StevenLShafer/COVID19/. The daily analysis are available at https://1drv.ms/u/s!AuOyHP_aTIy7rowrt2AjGpWm_frnEQ?e=KBcNbh.
You are welcome to use the R code on GitHub for any purpose.
I am attempting to keep the analysis and commentary apolitical. I am now including partisan lean as a metric to help understand the epidemic. I occasionally point
out misrepresentations by government officials. I occasionally point out where government recommendations have placed Americans at increasing risk.
I try to provide a daily update in the morning, except Sundays. My analysis my be delayed by my clinical responsibilities as a Stanford anesthesiologist.
There is a lot of information on the figures. If something isn’t clear, please see the explanation on slide 2.
Data sources:
• USA Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv
• USA Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv
• USA Testing and Hospitalization Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/COVID19Tracking/covid-tracking-data/master/data/states_daily_4pm_et.csv
• Global Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_global.csv
• Global Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv
• Global Testing Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/owid/covid-19-data/master/public/data/owid-covid-data.csv
• Mobility Data: https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/Global_Mobility_Report.csv
• Partisan Lean: MIT Election Data and Science Lab: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ/HEIJCQ
• Ensemble Model: https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/raw/master/data-processed/COVIDhub-ensemble/2020-xx-xx-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv
Models:
1. Future projections of case numbers are based on the Gompertz function (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gompertz_function): log 𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 =
𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 + 𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 − 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 1 − 𝑒−𝑘 𝑡 . This is a naïve asymptotic model. k is the rate constant, such that log(2) / k = time to 50%
rise. t is the number of days. Wikipedia The Gompertz function is estimated from the last 3 weeks of data for cumulative cases (red dots in the figures).
Deaths are predicted from a log linear regression of deaths over the past 21 days. For the US, and individual states, I am also including the 98% prediction
interval from the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/).
2. The rate of change in daily cases and deaths is the slope of delta cases / day over the last 14 days, divided by the average number of cases.
Locations
The locations for the modeling are where Pamela and I have family and friends, locations of interest to friends and colleagues, or countries in the news (e.g.,
China, South Korea, Sweden, Brazil) or with significant economic impact on the United States (e.g., Japan, Canada, Mexico). Locations are easy to add.
Stay safe, well, resilient, and kind.
Steve Shafer
steven.shafer@Stanford.edu

2. 2,586,092
152,804
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-05-27
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,662,302 (32,123) -- Deaths: 98,220 (829) -- Case Mortality: 5.9% -- Daily Change in Cases: -0.5%
Explanation of the Figures
2
Brown dots:
cumulative tests
Red dots: cumulative cases
used to estimate Gompertz
function, presently set to last
3 weeks
Red line: predicted cumulative
cases based on the Gompertz
function estimated from the red
dots
Red number: total cases
on June 30th, based on
the Gompertz function
estimated from the red
dots
Black number: total
Deaths on July 31th,
based on log-linear
regression of the past
21 days
Black line: predicted
cumulative deaths, based
on a log linear regression
of deaths over past 21
days.
Axis for deaths / day, usually
1/10th of the axis for cases /
day on the left side of the
figure.
Green line: linear regression
over 8 days, used to calculate
percent increase / decrease
(see below)
Daily change in cases,
calculated as the slope of the
green line (above left) /
number of new cases
yesterday.
Case mortality:
cumulative deaths
/ cumulative cases.
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
not used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Deaths / day,
axis is on the left
Blue line: today
Blue dots: cumulative cases not
used to estimate Gompertz
function
Cumulative cases
(yesterday’s cases)
and cumulative deaths
(yesterday’s deaths)
Axis for cases / day.
Axis for deaths / day
appears to the right.
Geographic
location
Date of analysis,
also shown as
blue vertical line
below
Purple wedge: 98% ensemble
prediction interval from COVID-19
Forecast Hub (USA and US
States only)

3. Worldwide
42,077,075
1,231,385
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Cumulative
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Worldwide projection as of 2020-09-23
10
1,000
100,000
CasesandDeaths/Day
Cases: 31,516,356 (196,207) -- Deaths: 969,525 (4,795) -- Case Mortality: 3.1% -- Daily Change: -0.6% Cases, -1.2% Deaths
2020-09-23 Summary: 3

4. USA
8,192,937
235,553
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Cumulative
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-09-23
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
LaborDay
10
1,000
100,000
CasesandDeaths/Day
Cases: 6,896,218 (39,334) -- Deaths: 200,786 (921) -- Case Mortality: 2.9% -- Daily Change: +1.8% Cases, -1.0% Deaths
2020-09-23 Summary: 4

5. Non-authoritarian Asian ensemble
130,655
2,691
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Cumulative
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam (Population = 328 MM)
Non-authoritarian Asian ensemble projection as of 2020-09-23
1.0
10.0
100.0
1,000.0
CasesandDeaths/Day
Cases: 107,571 (424) -- Deaths: 2,001 (1) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: -2.9% Cases, -3.6% Deaths
2020-09-23 Summary: 5

6. Western Europe
3,448,137
164,150
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Cumulative
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Netherlands, Luxembourg, and the UK (Population = 344MM)
Western Europe projection as of 2020-09-23
10
1,000
100,000
CasesandDeaths/Day
Cases: 2,360,497 (32,500) -- Deaths: 158,061 (411) -- Case Mortality: 6.7% -- Daily Change: +3.3% Cases, +6.2% Deaths
2020-09-23 Summary: 6

7. Comparison of COVID-19 Cases & Deaths
between US & Europe
Cases
Deaths
39,334
32,500
921
411
3
10
30
100
300
1,000
3,000
10,000
30,000
100,000
Date
DailyCasesandDeaths
Location
USA (318MM)
Western Europe (344MM)
Log plot of 7 day average
Comparison of COVID-19 Cases & Deaths between US & Europe
The numbers on the right are yesterday's figures, and will differ a bit from the plotted rolling mean
2020-09-23 Summary: 7

8. Worldwide cases
USA
India
Brazil
Russia
Colombia
Peru
Mexico
Spain
SouthAfrica
Argentina
France
Chile
Iran
UnitedKingdom
Bangladesh
SaudiArabia
Iraq
Pakistan
Turkey
Italy
Philippines
Germany
Indonesia
Israel
Ukraine
Canada
Bolivia
Ecuador
Romania
DominicanRepublic
Kazakhstan
Morocco
Belgium
Netherlands
Egypt
China
Sweden
Guatemala
Poland
Japan
Belarus
Honduras
Ethiopia
Portugal
Venezuela
Nepal
Nigeria
CzechRepublic
Uzbekistan
Switzerland
Algeria
Ghana
Kyrgyzstan
Azerbaijan
Austria
Afghanistan
Kenya
Paraguay
Serbia
Libya
ElSalvador
Australia
Denmark
SouthKorea
Cameroon
USA
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Totalcasestodate
Worldwide cases
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-09-23 Summary: 8

9. Worldwide cases
Chile
Israel
Peru
Brazil
USA
Colombia
Spain
Argentina
SouthAfrica
Bolivia
SaudiArabia
DominicanRepublic
Iraq
Sweden
Belgium
Honduras
Ecuador
Kyrgyzstan
Russia
Belarus
France
Kazakhstan
UnitedKingdom
Switzerland
Guatemala
Portugal
Iran
Mexico
Netherlands
CzechRepublic
Italy
Romania
Paraguay
Austria
Azerbaijan
India
Libya
Serbia
Canada
Denmark
Ukraine
Turkey
ElSalvador
Germany
Morocco
Philippines
Bulgaria
Venezuela
Nepal
Bangladesh
Poland
Hungary
Ghana
Uzbekistan
Pakistan
Finland
Greece
Algeria
Afghanistan
Tajikistan
Slovakia
Australia
Egypt
Zambia
Cameroon
USA
None
1 in 200
1 in 100
1 in 67
1 in 50
1 in 40
1 in 33
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Totalcasestodate
Worldwide cases
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-09-23 Summary: 9

10. Average new cases over past 7 days
Israel
Spain
Argentina
CzechRepublic
Peru
France
Brazil
Colombia
USA
Iraq
Belgium
Libya
Paraguay
Netherlands
Chile
Austria
Hungary
Denmark
Ecuador
Ukraine
India
UnitedKingdom
DominicanRepublic
Morocco
Portugal
Honduras
Romania
Switzerland
Nepal
Bolivia
Tunisia
Iran
Jordan
Guatemala
Russia
Sweden
Mexico
Philippines
Canada
Venezuela
SouthAfrica
Slovakia
Greece
Italy
Belarus
Uzbekistan
Turkey
Germany
Poland
SaudiArabia
Bulgaria
ElSalvador
Indonesia
Azerbaijan
Kyrgyzstan
Finland
Bangladesh
Myanmar
Serbia
Mozambique
Ethiopia
Angola
Zambia
Uganda
Algeria
USA
None
1 in 10,000
1 in 5,000
1 in 3,333
1 in 2,500
1 in 2,000
1 in 1,667
1 in 1,429
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Averagecases/day
Average new cases over past 7 days
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-09-23 Summary: 10

11. Worldwide deaths
USA
Brazil
India
Mexico
UnitedKingdom
Italy
Peru
France
Spain
Iran
Colombia
Russia
SouthAfrica
Argentina
Chile
Ecuador
Belgium
Indonesia
Germany
Canada
Iraq
Bolivia
Turkey
Pakistan
Netherlands
Sweden
Egypt
Philippines
Bangladesh
China
SaudiArabia
Romania
Ukraine
Guatemala
Poland
Honduras
DominicanRepublic
Switzerland
Portugal
Morocco
Kazakhstan
Algeria
Japan
Afghanistan
Israel
Ethiopia
Nigeria
Kyrgyzstan
Australia
Sudan
ElSalvador
Belarus
Austria
Bulgaria
Serbia
Paraguay
Hungary
Kenya
Denmark
Yemen
Azerbaijan
Venezuela
CzechRepublic
Libya
Uzbekistan
USA
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Totaldeathstodate
Worldwide deaths
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-09-23 Summary: 11

12. Worldwide deaths
Peru
Belgium
Bolivia
Ecuador
Spain
Chile
Brazil
UnitedKingdom
Mexico
Sweden
USA
Italy
Colombia
France
Netherlands
Iran
Argentina
SouthAfrica
Honduras
Iraq
Canada
Switzerland
Guatemala
DominicanRepublic
Romania
Kyrgyzstan
Portugal
Israel
SaudiArabia
Russia
Denmark
Germany
ElSalvador
Kazakhstan
Bulgaria
Serbia
Paraguay
Turkey
Austria
Belarus
Ukraine
India
Libya
Azerbaijan
Hungary
Egypt
Finland
Poland
Morocco
CzechRepublic
Philippines
Afghanistan
Algeria
Indonesia
Australia
Pakistan
Greece
Sudan
Bangladesh
Zambia
Nicaragua
Haiti
Yemen
Cameroon
Senegal
USA
None
1 in 5,000
1 in 2,500
1 in 1,667
1 in 1,250
1 in 1,000
1 in 833
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Totaldeathstodate
Worldwide deaths
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-09-23 Summary: 12

13. Average daily deaths over past 7 days
Argentina
Brazil
Bolivia
Mexico
Colombia
Spain
Paraguay
Peru
Israel
Iran
USA
Iraq
Chile
Honduras
Libya
Romania
Ecuador
SouthAfrica
Guatemala
Ukraine
DominicanRepublic
SaudiArabia
Morocco
France
Russia
India
Turkey
CzechRepublic
Bulgaria
Hungary
Portugal
Tunisia
Philippines
Kazakhstan
Indonesia
Greece
Switzerland
Belarus
ElSalvador
UnitedKingdom
Poland
Sweden
Venezuela
Belgium
Netherlands
Nepal
Australia
Algeria
Italy
Egypt
Myanmar
Austria
Canada
Azerbaijan
Uzbekistan
Bangladesh
Angola
Denmark
Serbia
Ethiopia
Jordan
Syria
Zambia
Kenya
Nicaragua
USA
None
1 in 500,000
1 in 250,000
1 in 166,667
1 in 125,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Averagedeaths/day
Average daily deaths over past 7 days
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-09-23 Summary: 13

14. Mortality Trends
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
USCaseRateMortality
Mortality Type:
13 day rolling median
Cumulative
Daily Raw
Daily vs. Cumulative US Case Rate Mortality
Last week excluded because deaths are often backdated
2020-09-23 Summary: 14

15. Change in New Cases per Day
New cases are:
Increasing > +3%
Increasing between +1% and +3%
No Change (-1% to +1%)
Decreasing between -1% and -3%
Decreasing > -3%
New cases by state as of 2020-09-23
2020-09-23 Summary: 15

16. Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
PercentofPeak
Daily Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
2020-09-23 Summary: 16

17. Change in New Deaths per Day
New deaths are:
Increasing > +0.5%
Increasing between +0.1% and +0.5%
No Change (-0.1% to +0.1%)
Decreasing between -0.1% and -0.5%
Decreasing > -0.5%
New deaths by state as of 2020-09-23
2020-09-23 Summary: 17

18. Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
PercentofPeak
Daily Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
2020-09-23 Summary: 18

19. Change in cases vs. change in deaths over
last 14 days
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
DC
GA
HI
ID
IN
IA KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MO
MT
NE
NH
NJ
NM
NY
ND
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
-6
-3
0
3
6
-6 -3 0 3 6
Change in cases (%/day)
Changeindeaths(%/day)
Change in cases vs. change in deaths over last 14 days as of 2020-09-23
Size is proportional total cases per capita
2020-09-23 Summary: 19

20. Total US COVID-19 Cases
California
Texas
Florida
NewYork
Georgia
Illinois
Arizona
NewJersey
NorthCarolina
Tennessee
Louisiana
Pennsylvania
Alabama
Ohio
Virginia
SouthCarolina
Michigan
Massachusetts
Maryland
Missouri
Indiana
Wisconsin
Mississippi
Minnesota
Washington
Iowa
Oklahoma
Arkansas
Nevada
Colorado
Utah
Kentucky
Connecticut
Kansas
Nebraska
Idaho
Oregon
NewMexico
RhodeIsland
Delaware
SouthDakota
NorthDakota
DistrictofColumbia
WestVirginia
Hawaii
Montana
NewHampshire
Alaska
Maine
Wyoming
Vermont
0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Totalcases
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Total US COVID-19 Cases
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.49, p governor: 0.82. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-23 Summary: 20

21. Total US COVID-19 Cases
Louisiana
Florida
Mississippi
Alabama
Arizona
Georgia
SouthCarolina
Tennessee
Iowa
Texas
Arkansas
Nevada
NorthDakota
NewYork
RhodeIsland
NewJersey
Illinois
SouthDakota
Nebraska
Idaho
DistrictofColumbia
Delaware
Utah
California
Maryland
Oklahoma
Missouri
NorthCarolina
Kansas
Massachusetts
Wisconsin
Indiana
Virginia
Minnesota
Connecticut
Kentucky
NewMexico
Michigan
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Washington
Montana
Alaska
Wyoming
Hawaii
WestVirginia
Oregon
NewHampshire
Maine
Vermont
None
1 in 100
1 in 50
1 in 33
1 in 25
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
TotalCases
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Total US COVID-19 Cases
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.21, p governor: 0.029. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-23 Summary: 21

22. Average US COVID-19 cases over the past
7 days
NorthDakota
SouthDakota
Wisconsin
Oklahoma
Arkansas
Iowa
Utah
Texas
Missouri
Nebraska
Tennessee
Idaho
SouthCarolina
Montana
Kansas
Alabama
Mississippi
Georgia
Kentucky
Illinois
Minnesota
Wyoming
Florida
NorthCarolina
Louisiana
Indiana
WestVirginia
Virginia
RhodeIsland
Delaware
Arizona
Alaska
Nevada
Colorado
California
Maryland
Ohio
Michigan
DistrictofColumbia
Hawaii
Pennsylvania
Oregon
NewMexico
NewJersey
Washington
Massachusetts
Connecticut
NewYork
NewHampshire
Maine
Vermont
None
1 in 10,000
1 in 5,000
1 in 3,333
1 in 2,500
1 in 2,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
NewCases/Day
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Average US COVID-19 cases over the past 7 days
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.00075, p governor: 0.0012. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-23 Summary: 22

23. Total US COVID-19 Deaths
NewYork
NewJersey
Texas
California
Florida
Massachusetts
Illinois
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Georgia
Arizona
Louisiana
Ohio
Connecticut
Maryland
Indiana
NorthCarolina
SouthCarolina
Virginia
Mississippi
Alabama
Tennessee
Washington
Minnesota
Colorado
Missouri
Nevada
Iowa
Wisconsin
Arkansas
Kentucky
RhodeIsland
Oklahoma
NewMexico
Delaware
DistrictofColumbia
Kansas
Oregon
Nebraska
Idaho
Utah
NewHampshire
WestVirginia
SouthDakota
NorthDakota
Montana
Maine
Hawaii
Vermont
Wyoming
Alaska
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
TotalDeaths
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Total US COVID-19 Deaths
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.066, p governor: 0.28. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-23 Summary: 23

24. Total US COVID-19 Deaths
NewJersey
NewYork
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Louisiana
RhodeIsland
Mississippi
DistrictofColumbia
Arizona
Michigan
Illinois
Delaware
Maryland
SouthCarolina
Georgia
Pennsylvania
Florida
Texas
Indiana
Nevada
Alabama
Iowa
NewMexico
Arkansas
Ohio
California
Minnesota
Virginia
Colorado
Tennessee
NewHampshire
NorthCarolina
Missouri
Washington
NorthDakota
Idaho
Kentucky
Oklahoma
Nebraska
SouthDakota
Wisconsin
Kansas
WestVirginia
Montana
Utah
Oregon
Maine
Vermont
Wyoming
Hawaii
Alaska
None
1 in 2,000
1 in 1,000
1 in 667
1 in 500
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
TotalDeaths
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Total US COVID-19 Deaths
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.03, p governor: 0.35. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-23 Summary: 24

25. Average US COVID-19 deaths over the past
7 days
Arkansas
Mississippi
Virginia
Florida
NorthDakota
SouthCarolina
Georgia
Louisiana
Nevada
Texas
Kansas
Arizona
Tennessee
WestVirginia
Montana
RhodeIsland
Iowa
NorthCarolina
Missouri
Alabama
SouthDakota
California
Ohio
Idaho
Massachusetts
Hawaii
NewMexico
Oklahoma
Illinois
Wyoming
Nebraska
Kentucky
Indiana
Pennsylvania
Delaware
Minnesota
Maryland
Washington
Michigan
DistrictofColumbia
Wisconsin
Colorado
Oregon
NewJersey
NewYork
Connecticut
Maine
Utah
NewHampshire
Alaska
Vermont
None
1 in 500,000
1 in 250,000
1 in 166,667
1 in 125,000
1 in 100,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Deaths/Day
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Average US COVID-19 deaths over the past 7 days
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.38, p governor: 0.081. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-23 Summary: 25

26. Daily testing trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Dailytestingfrommintomax
Daily testing trends from min to max
Line = Friedman's supersmoother
2020-09-23 Summary: 26

27. Change in daily tests over past 14 days
Utah
California
Idaho
NewMexico
NorthCarolina
Ohio
Minnesota
Florida
Montana
Missouri
Wyoming
Michigan
Oklahoma
Kentucky
Connecticut
SouthCarolina
Illinois
Maine
Hawaii
Arkansas
Tennessee
Arizona
Washington
NewYork
Mississippi
Texas
Virginia
Wisconsin
NorthDakota
DistrictofColumbia
Colorado
Nebraska
Kansas
Indiana
WestVirginia
NewJersey
Massachusetts
SouthDakota
Iowa
NewHampshire
Delaware
Pennsylvania
Louisiana
Maryland
Alaska
Oregon
Georgia
Nevada
RhodeIsland
Vermont
Alabama
-2.0
0.0
2.0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Changeindailytests(%/day)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Change in daily tests over past 14 days
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.7, p governor: 0.38. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-23 Summary: 27

28. Percent Tested
Alaska
NewYork
DistrictofColumbia
Louisiana
Connecticut
NewMexico
Illinois
Tennessee
NewJersey
California
Michigan
Massachusetts
RhodeIsland
NorthDakota
Arkansas
Montana
WestVirginia
Delaware
Oklahoma
Maine
NorthCarolina
Georgia
Maryland
Vermont
Wisconsin
Ohio
Kentucky
Utah
Mississippi
Florida
Minnesota
Iowa
Washington
SouthCarolina
Virginia
Nebraska
Alabama
Nevada
Missouri
SouthDakota
Hawaii
Texas
Indiana
Arizona
NewHampshire
Kansas
Idaho
Wyoming
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Colorado
0
20
40
60
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
PercentTested
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Percent Tested
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.04, p governor: 0.14. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-23 Summary: 28

29. Percent of Positive COVID Tests
Arizona
Alabama
Florida
Mississippi
Idaho
Texas
SouthCarolina
Nevada
Kansas
Georgia
Iowa
SouthDakota
Nebraska
Missouri
Indiana
Arkansas
Utah
NorthDakota
Pennsylvania
Maryland
Colorado
Wisconsin
RhodeIsland
Virginia
Louisiana
Delaware
Oklahoma
Minnesota
NorthCarolina
Tennessee
Massachusetts
NewJersey
Kentucky
California
Illinois
Wyoming
Ohio
Oregon
Washington
NewYork
DistrictofColumbia
Hawaii
Michigan
Connecticut
Montana
NewHampshire
NewMexico
WestVirginia
Alaska
Maine
Vermont
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
PercentofPositiveTests
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Percent of Positive COVID Tests
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.0097, p governor: 0.0025. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-23 Summary: 29

30. Positive fraction trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Fractionpositivefrommintomax
Positive fraction trends from min to max
2020-09-23 Summary: 30

31. Change in positive tests over past 14 days
NorthDakota
Wisconsin
Montana
SouthDakota
Wyoming
WestVirginia
Utah
Texas
Alaska
Oklahoma
Missouri
Kansas
Iowa
Idaho
Nebraska
Minnesota
Oregon
Alabama
Arkansas
Delaware
Florida
Colorado
Nevada
RhodeIsland
Pennsylvania
SouthCarolina
NewHampshire
Indiana
Tennessee
Maryland
Georgia
NewMexico
Virginia
Vermont
Washington
Michigan
NorthCarolina
Hawaii
Illinois
Louisiana
California
NewJersey
Arizona
Ohio
Massachusetts
Kentucky
Connecticut
DistrictofColumbia
NewYork
Mississippi
Maine
-1.0
0.0
1.0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Changeinpositivetests(%/day)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Change in positive tests over past 14 days
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.0091, p governor: 0.0054. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-23 Summary: 31

32. Change in tests vs. change in positive tests
over last 14 days
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
DC
GA
HI
ID
IN
IA
LA
ME
MN
MO
MT
NE
NJ
NM
NC
ND
OH
OR
PA
SC
SD
TX
UT
VT
WI
-1
0
1
-5.0 -2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0
Change in tests (%/day)
Changeinpositivetests(%/day)
Change in tests vs. change in positive tests over last 14 days as of 2020-09-23
Size is proportional daily deaths per capita over the past 7 days
2020-09-23 Summary: 32

33. Current hospitalizations as a percent of peak
since FebruaryMissouri
NorthDakota
SouthDakota
WestVirginia
Wyoming
Alaska
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Arkansas
Kentucky
NorthCarolina
Kansas
Utah
Iowa
Wisconsin
Hawaii
Idaho
Montana
Virginia
Georgia
Oregon
Tennessee
Ohio
Indiana
Mississippi
Alabama
SouthCarolina
Minnesota
Washington
California
Nevada
Maine
NewMexico
Illinois
Louisiana
Texas
RhodeIsland
Colorado
Florida
DistrictofColumbia
Delaware
Maryland
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Arizona
Massachusetts
NewHampshire
Vermont
NewJersey
Connecticut
NewYork
0
30
60
90
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Hospitalizations(%ofpeak)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Current hospitalizations as a percent of peak since February
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.0041, p governor: 0.032. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-23 Summary: 33

34. Hospitalizations trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Hospitalizationsfrommintomax
Hospitalizations trends from min to max
2020-09-23 Summary: 34

35. Change in hospitalizations over past 14
days
SouthDakota
Maine
Wyoming
Wisconsin
NorthDakota
Connecticut
NewHampshire
Utah
Massachusetts
Oklahoma
WestVirginia
Alaska
Missouri
Oregon
DistrictofColumbia
NewYork
Nebraska
Arkansas
NorthCarolina
Colorado
RhodeIsland
Minnesota
Delaware
NewMexico
Illinois
Kansas
Indiana
SouthCarolina
Idaho
Kentucky
Alabama
Mississippi
Iowa
Virginia
Washington
NewJersey
Pennsylvania
Georgia
Michigan
Texas
Ohio
Tennessee
Maryland
California
Nevada
Arizona
Louisiana
Hawaii
Florida
Vermont
Montana
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Changeinhospitalizations(%/day)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Change in hospitalizations over past 14 days
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.34, p governor: 0.37. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-23 Summary: 35

36. Change in New Cases per Day
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
NA
Trends by county as of 2020-09-23
NA = Inadequate data
2020-09-23 Summary: 36